vision, key findings, and expectations

Vision, Key Findings, and ExpectationsElectronic-Photonic synergy – Integration – Standardization – Cross-market Platforms

May 16, 2005 communications technology roadmap

30 Faculty and Research Staff, 1997VISION: The goal of the Center is the creation of new

materials, structures and architectures to enable the evolution of photonics from single, discrete devices to integrated photonic systems.

Industry Consortium, 2000Research, Roadmap, InfrastructureAixtron Fujifilm PirelliAnalog Devices JDSU Texas InstrumentsApplied Materials LNL Tech UnaxisCanon NanovationTech VeecoDuPont Nortel Networks Walsin Lihwa


TECHNOLOGYWORKING GROUPS

“Applications for Organics in Integrated Photonic Circuits”TWG Chair: Louay Eldada, Dupont

“Next Generation Transceiver”TWG Chairs: Mike Schabel, Lucent;Dominic O’Brien, University of Oxford

Microphotonics: Hardware for the Information Age

Communications Technology Roadmap- Evaluate telecommunications technology- Serve as a guide for R&D investment- Analysis for a rational restructuring of the

industry

1. Editorial Advisory Board- Build a consensus among the TWGs- Drive closure to document preparation- Lead formulation of an action agenda

2. Technology Working Groups (TWGs) Industry-led with the support of MIT faculty and student analyses- Gather thought leaders, from both industry

and academia, to discuss technologyevolution

60 participating companies and universities

“Photonic Integration on InP”TWG Chairs: Rick Clayton, Bookham;Tom Dudley, Triquint

“Electronic/Photonic Convergence on Silicon”TWG Chairs: Jeff Swift, Analog Devices;Jerry Bautista and Michael Morse, Intel


Communications Technology RoadmapVision, Key Findings, and Expectations

1. The future technology will be driven by electronic-photonic convergence and short (<1 km) reach interconnection. This direction will ignite a major shift in the leadership of the optical component industry from information transmission (telecom) to information processing (computing, imaging).

2. The skill set required for this path does not exist at any single institution.

3. We recommend that the Microphotonics Industry Consortium expand its focus toward the creation of the necessary competence and the recommendation of standards.

Electronic-Photonic Convergence1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

PHOTONICS

Driver Fiber, lasers, detectors

MUX, EDFA

Metro-fiber, PLCTransceiver

Mph ICsFTTH

Pervasive,Mph ICs

TransmissionApplication

ETDMWAN

DWDM WAN

SecurityAccess

SAN/LAN

1Gb/s Access10Tb/s WAN

Optical switching systems

Trend Fiber Fiber pigtail Boards, Servers Optical MCM Optical Nodes

ELECTRONICS

Driver IC: Al/SiO2

GaAsIC: Cu/SiO2

InPOptical bus On-chip optical

interconnectsOptical switch

Processing Application

S/DRAM, ASIC, μProc

MIMIC

DSPμProcTIA

Parallel processing

EP signal conditioning

EP signal processing

Trend YieldYield

ShrinkYield

Optical interconnection

EP design Photonic logic

timeline for commercial deployment


10-2

100

102

104

106

108

1010

1012

1014

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Rel

ativ

e In

form

atio

n C

apac

ity (b

it/s)

Year

Telephone lines first constructed

Carrier Telephony first used 12 voicechannels on one wire pair

Early coaxial cable links

Advanced coaxial and

microwave systems

CommunicationSatellites

Single channel (ETDM)

Multi-channel(WDM)

OPTICAL FIBER SYSTEMS

10 Mb/s × km

1. Distance bandwidth product > 10 Mb/s × km2. EMI, Crosstalk, Power, Weight, Footprint are important 3. Performance Scaling controls product lifecycle

Electronic-Photonic Convergence


The End of the Roadmap: Microprocessors 2010

???5000 pins

100 Tb/s on-chip

40 Tb/s off-chip

Low latency

Low power

Low crosstalk

3 GHz off-chip and global clock rates

10 GHz local clock rates

ITRS 2000

• “Intel will obtain more computing power by stamping multiple processors on a single chip rather than straining to increase the speed of a single processor.”•"Classical scaling is dead," said Bernard S. Meyerson, chief technologist for IBM. "In the past, the way everyone made chips faster was to simply shrink them.”NYT, 5-17-04


Component Economics I:The Differentiation “Death Spiral”Reduced revenue and reduced R&D investment

Communications andInterconnects

TransceiverSales

Sufficiency of Business(Or, Total Capacity

Ultiliaztion)

Perceived Need toDo Something

Standardization

ProductVariety

Economies ofScale

Costs

-

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

R

B

Efforts to GainMarket Share

Desire to Differentiatefrom Competitiors

Efforts to IncreaseTotal Market

+

+

+

+

Perceived Benefitsof Optical

TransceiverDemand

+

earnings (-)

total addressable market (-)

Speerschneider, MIT

Component Economics II:Broadband Demand

New OpticalNetwork Build

TransceiversSales

TransceiverRevenue

R&D to ReduceCosts

Costs

Forecast Demand forBroadband

-

+

+

+

-

+

R&D to ImprovePerformance

Bit Rate *Distance

+

++B

POTS vs performance scalingNetwork Build lifecycle?Technology obsolescence?

Revenue800 M

600 M

400 M

200 M

00 5 10 15 20 25

Time (Year)

Revenue : step 1.25e13 newtable (6-7) dollars/YearRevenue : eq newtable (6-7) dollars/Year

legacy dominance build complete

Total Broadband Demand2e+014

1.75e+014

1.5e+014

1.25e+014

1e+0140 5 10 15 20 25

Time (Year)

Total Broadband Demand : step 1.25e13 newtable (6-7) m*MbpsTotal Broadband Demand : eq newtable (6-7) m*Mbps

Kelic, Speerschneider, MIT


Vision: Communications 2015Electronic-Photonic synergy – Integration – Standardization – Cross-market Platforms

• Technology– It is not a matter of optical switching– It is very much a matter of fewer boxes– Lower Opex: integration, fewer boxes to deploy and maintain,

protocol agnostic components, performance scalability

• Business and Revenue Generation– From people-to-people to appliance-to-appliance– Human Interface: speech recognition, etc.– Merging of communications, computation and imaging– Transport business will transform to services: security, shared

network applications, etc.


Emerging Markets

• Designing a system for 2015 – Auto– Server– Digital Home

• Who will make the transceiver?• What will the cost be?• When will it be available?• What will its performance be?


Building a Technology PlatformIntegration

If not now, when?

Commercial deployment: 20-40% of market potential

0

1020

3040

50

6070

8090

100

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Timescale

Uni

ts S

hipp

ed (%

mar

ket p

oten

tial)

Commercialization

Con

cept

&Fe

asib

ility

Dev

elop

men

t

βte

st

Dev

elop

men

t

βte

st


3dB / amplifier

PHOTON POWER SUPPLYWDM optical I/O, clocking source

Optcial receiver(photodetector/TIA)

Waveguide

Optical Bus Architecture


Ge

Si

SiO

2

SiO

2

Electronic-Photonic ConvergenceGe Photodetectors on Si

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.50

100

200

300

400

500

600

Res

pons

ivity

(mA

/W)

Bias Voltage (V)

330 mA/W with 1 μm Ge550 mA/W with 4 μm Ge890 mA/W with AR Coating

330 mA/W with 1 μm Ge550 mA/W with 4 μm Ge890 mA/W with AR Coating

p+Si

+V-V

Gen+Ge

Cannon, Liu, Luan, Michel, MIT

~50 ps response time>90% quantum efficiency!Strain-extended L-band response


100 GHz Third-Order Filters with 24nm FSR

Popovic, Rakich, Barwicz, MIT; Gorni, Pirelli


High Index Contrast Amplifier Scaling Law

Saini and Michel, MIT

Performance = gain / (noise × pump power × area)

0.1 110-1

100

101

102

103

104

105

slope=2.6

FOM

(dB

/mW

/cm

2 )

Index Difference Δn

•Signal confinement•Pump confinement•Tighter bend radius•Constant noise factor

Physics of Optical Scaling

Pp=1mWG=3dBA=1mm2


Photonic Crystal Channel Waveguide

Measurementλ = 1550 nmLoss ~ 6 dB/cmLoss ~ 5 dB/bend for 4-μm bend radius

Akiyama and Yi, MIT

optical power bus


Lessons form IrDA

• Laptops drove the early market; rarely used– Design was the gating step, and it was independent of the user

• Common threads to standardization– Initially, each vendor desired to establish a standard about their

proprietary position– The standard emerged incrementally with fast-followers adopting

the best new technology, and with design emphasizing retrofit capability

– The ‘killer app’, corrosion protected ports for cellphone and PDA programming

• Specific success factors:– The air link had no legacy infrastructure– The air link required no alignment beyond die-attach– The architectural solution had minimal design impact on systems– The total addressable market was 1-10 million parts


Convergence Success Strategy: 2005Infrastructure, Standardization, and Consolidation

Keys to commercial market entry– Performance: (Bandwidth × Distance)/cost– No disruption of critical applications– Capital cost of upgrade < legacy sunk costs– Backward compatible– Complete value chain availability– Skills required for adoption are available– Market is an area of rapid growth


Convergence Success Strategy: Vision 2015

• Standard component platform• Common manufacturing infrastructure• ‘Productive’ R&D reduces development cycle• Common platform across industry sectors• Grow platform to $20B/yr revenue

• Technology obsolescence triggers sales through performance scaling


The Bottom Line

• The skill set required for this path does not exist at any single institution.

• We recommend that the MicrophotonicsIndustry Consortium expand its focus toward the creation of the necessary competence and the recommendation of standards.


Cooperative Development Goals• Materials

– Large area wafers, component integration compatibility• Processes

– Tool standardization, common processes, process control, process integration

• Packaging Infrastructure– An optical chip carrier without a permanent fiber attach– Boards, backplanes, intrabox, interbox, LAN, FTTH, MAN, WAN

• Test– Common test platform, wafer level testing, global standard test

• Design– Common design tools, common form factors, reduce complexity,

focus on functionality– Methodology for electronic/photonic partitioning– Photonic circuit theory to support appropriate simulation tools

vision, key findings, and expectations

Documents