vistas meteorological modeling 2002 simulation may 25, 2004 national rpo modeling meeting

VISTAS Meteorological VISTAS Meteorological ModelingModeling

2002 Simulation2002 Simulation

May 25, 2004May 25, 2004

National RPO Modeling MeetingNational RPO Modeling Meeting

Denver, CODenver, CO

George BridgersGeorge Bridgers

North Carolina Division of Air QualityNorth Carolina Division of Air Quality

IntroductionIntroduction• MM5 v3.6.1+ (Sea Ice Differences Only)MM5 v3.6.1+ (Sea Ice Differences Only)

• MM5 v3.6.2 PreprocessorsMM5 v3.6.2 Preprocessors• Reisner 1 w/ Mixed Ice PhysicsReisner 1 w/ Mixed Ice Physics• Kain-Fritsch 2 Cumulus ParameterizationKain-Fritsch 2 Cumulus Parameterization• ACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) ModelACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Model• Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model LSM (EPA’s MPP Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model LSM (EPA’s MPP

version)version)– independent segments (cold start)-no INTERPPXindependent segments (cold start)-no INTERPPX

INTERPPXINTERPPX is used to initialize soil moisture, canopy is used to initialize soil moisture, canopy moisture, and soil temperature from a previous run when moisture, and soil temperature from a previous run when simulation time periods overlap.simulation time periods overlap.

– Using INTERPPX resulted in a significant wintertime cold bias Using INTERPPX resulted in a significant wintertime cold bias in sensitivity testing.in sensitivity testing.

Introduction (cont.)Introduction (cont.)

• MM5 executed in 5.5 day MM5 executed in 5.5 day segmentssegments

• 76 total segments76 total segments• 00Z Dec 17, 2001 start00Z Dec 17, 2001 start

• dec17_01 date tagdec17_01 date tag• 12Z Jan 1, 2003 finish12Z Jan 1, 2003 finish

• Last hour of dec27_02 segmentLast hour of dec27_02 segment

Evaluation ProceduresEvaluation Procedures• Full suite of evaluation products Full suite of evaluation products

available for each segmentavailable for each segment• Surface ProductsSurface Products

SpatialSpatial Time seriesTime series CombinationCombination

• Aloft ProductsAloft Products SpatialSpatial SoundingSounding ProfilerProfiler

• Statistical ProductsStatistical Products Surface time seriesSurface time series Aloft time seriesAloft time series TablesTables

Evaluation ProceduresEvaluation Procedures

• Need to Summarize ResultsNeed to Summarize Results• Monthly ProductsMonthly Products

• Statistical TablesStatistical Tables• Spatial Summary PlotsSpatial Summary Plots• ““Bakergrams” (annual)Bakergrams” (annual)• ““Bakergrams” (monthly)Bakergrams” (monthly)• Spatial Statistical PlotsSpatial Statistical Plots

Statistical ChartsStatistical Charts

1.5m Temperature (C) Bias

-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.1

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Bia

s 12 km

36 km

Monthly VISTAS StatisticsMonthly VISTAS Statistics

1.5m Tempe rature (C) Bias

-0.70

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

djf* m am jja son

Bia

s 12km

36km

Seasonal VISTAS StatisticsSeasonal VISTAS Statistics


-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36kmDay/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km


-1.4-1.2

-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2

00.20.40.6

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


Qv (g/kg) Bias

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


Qv (g/kg) Bias)

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

djf* mam jja son

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


Qv (g/kg) Bias

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


Qv (g/kg) Bias

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


RH (%) Bias

-6-5-4-3-2-101234

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


Rh (%) Bias

-4.00-3.50-3.00-2.50-2.00-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.00

djf* mam jja son

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


RH (%) Bias

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


RH (%) Bias

-10

-5

0

5

10

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


WS reg (m/s) Bias

00.1

0.20.3

0.40.5

0.60.7

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


WS reg (m/s) Bias

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

djf* mam jja son

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


WS reg (m/s) Bias

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


WS reg (m/s) Bias

-0.20

0.20.4

0.60.8

11.2

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


WS no calm (m/s) Bias

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Bia

s 12 km

36 km



-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

djf* mam jja son

Bia

s 12 km

36 km



-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.10.20.3

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night



-0.4-0.3

-0.2-0.1

00.1

0.20.3

0.40.5

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


WS minicalm (m/s) Bias

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Bia

s 12 km

36 km



0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

djf* mam jja son

Bia

s 12 km

36 km



-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night



-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


CLD (%) Bias

-10-8

-6-4

-20

24

68

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


CLD (%) Bias

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

djf* mam jja son

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


CLD (%) Bias

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


CLD (%) Bias

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night


CLD2 (%) Bias

-6-4-202468

101214

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


CLD2 (%) Bias

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

djf* mam jja son

Bia

s 12 km

36 km


CLD2 (%) Bias

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night

Day/night VISTAS Statistics, 36kmDay/night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

CLD2 (%) Bias

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Month

Bia

s day

night

Day/night VISTAS Statistics, 12kmDay/night VISTAS Statistics, 12km


WDIR dbias

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

dB

ias 12 km

36 km

WDIR dbias

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

djf* mam jja son

dB

ias 12 km

36 km


Annual BakergramsAnnual Bakergrams

Monthly BakergramsMonthly Bakergrams

Spatial PlotsSpatial Plots

Performance SummaryPerformance Summary

• Modeling Results Are as ExpectedModeling Results Are as Expected• Cold Bias in WinterCold Bias in Winter

• Soil initialization procedure needs Soil initialization procedure needs improvement (beyond scope of project)improvement (beyond scope of project)

• 10-day soil time scale too long?10-day soil time scale too long?• Precip amounts in summer overdone in SE USPrecip amounts in summer overdone in SE US• Best performance in VISTAS region for most Best performance in VISTAS region for most

variables… variables… • Performance is quite good compared with Performance is quite good compared with

other modeling exercisesother modeling exercises• Characteristics of the 36km and 12km Characteristics of the 36km and 12km

domains are generally similar, but interesting domains are generally similar, but interesting differencesdifferences

What’s Next What’s Next For VISTAS’ Meteorological For VISTAS’ Meteorological

TeamTeam• Survey VISTAS states regarding:Survey VISTAS states regarding:

• Performance zones evaluationPerformance zones evaluation• What are other RPO’s doing?What are other RPO’s doing?• Awaiting results of CART analysisAwaiting results of CART analysis

• State by State (VISTAS) evaluation State by State (VISTAS) evaluation • To support PM2.5 SIP workTo support PM2.5 SIP work

• Formatting files for CALMET/CALPUFFFormatting files for CALMET/CALPUFF• To support state permit modelingTo support state permit modeling

• Transfers available… Want it? Need 1.2 TB Transfers available… Want it? Need 1.2 TB storagestorage

• 2003 episodic modeling ?2003 episodic modeling ?• Episodes could be identified by CART analysisEpisodes could be identified by CART analysis

Contact InformationContact Information

• http://vistas-sesarm.org/http://vistas-sesarm.org/• http://www.baronams.com/projects/http://www.baronams.com/projects/

VISTAS/VISTAS/

[email protected]@ncmail.net

919-715-3743919-715-3743

[email protected]@ncmail.net

919-715-6287 919-715-6287

Mammoth CaveMammoth CaveTime SeriesTime Series

ShenandoahShenandoahTime SeriesTime Series

vistas meteorological modeling 2002 simulation may 25, 2004 national rpo modeling meeting

Documents

soil temperature

soil moisture

simulation time periods

canopy moisture

sea ice differences

sensitivity testing

previous run

finishlast hour of dec27