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Volcanic Ash Advisory Center

Buenos Aires

by Miriam Andrioliby Miriam Andrioli

WMO VAAC Best Practice Workshop 2015

Westminster, London, UK. 5-8 May 2015

VAAC Buenos Aires AoR

10° to 90° South - 10° to 90° West

Volcanic Eruptions – Volcanos under VAAC BA AoR

Mapa cuadro CamilaMapa cuadro Camila

158 volcanoes

VOLCANO 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015TOTAL /

Volcano

Lascar 17 14 4 1 36

Ubinas 534 392 136 40 2 400 1504

Planchón Peteroa 18 60 79 157

Quizapú 6 6

Llaima 19 33 7 2 61

Villarrica 2 7 5 1 24 39

Chaitén 437 198 36 5 676

Callaquí 1 5 2 8

VAA issued during the period 2006 - 2014

Updated April 1st, 2015 - 14:45 UTC (VAA + VAG as of 2011)

Callaquí 1 5 2 8

Nev. del Chillán 3 3

San José 1 1

Cordón Caullé 856 263 14 12 2 1147

Hudson 19 19

Osorno 2 2

Olca Paruna 1 1

Tolhuaca 3 3

Copahue 24 48 39 111

Antuco 1 1

Palena Group 1 1

Sabancaya 5 39 10 54

MIchinmahuida 1 1

TOTAL / Year 575 427 606 250 106 970 296 72 490 39 3831

Volcanic Eruptions – Active volcanos 2006 – 2014/2015

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http://www.smn.gov.ar/dpd/monitoreo_volcanes_erupciones.php

FVAG01 SABM 222155

VA ADVISORY

DTG: 20150422/2155Z

VAAC: BUENOS AIRES

VOLCANO: CALBUCO 358020

PSN: S4119 W07236

AREA: CHILE

SUMMIT ELEV: 2003M

ADVISORY NR: 2015/01

INFO SOURCE: GOES 13 - WEB CAM

AVIATION COLOUR CODE: GREEN

FVAG01 SABM 222155

Calbuco Volcano (Ch.)

2 EXPLOSIVE ERUPTIONS• 17:50 HCL 22nd APR 15

• 01:00 HCL 23rd APR 15

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AVIATION COLOUR CODE: GREEN

ERUPTION DETAILS: EXPLOSIVE ERUPTION

OBS VA DTG: 22/2045Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL100 S4133 W07244 - S4134 W07231 - S4121 W07237 - S4133

W07244 MOV S 15KT

RMK: IS DETECTED IN THE WEBCAM ONE EXPLOSIVE ERUPTION AND THE FIRST

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES

NXT ADVISORY: AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

FVAG01 SABM 222300

VA ADVISORY

DTG: 20150422/2300Z

VAAC: BUENOS AIRES

VOLCANO: CALBUCO 358020

PSN: S4119 W07236

AREA: CHILE

SUMMIT ELEV: 2003M

ADVISORY NR: 2015/02

INFO SOURCE: GOES 13 - WEB CAM -ARS

AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED

ERUPTION DETAILS: EXPLOSIVE ERUPTION

OBS VA DTG: 22/2208Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL300 S4121 W07239 - S4102 W07157 - S4137 W07157 - S4147 W07237 - S4103

FVAG01 SABM 222300

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OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL300 S4121 W07239 - S4102 W07157 - S4137 W07157 - S4147 W07237 - S4103

W07259 - S4104 W07158 - S4121 W07239 MOV VRB 15KT

FCST VA CLD +06HR: 23/0408Z SFC/FL300 S4119 W07236 - S3802 W07258 - S4004 W07057 - S4119

W07234 - S4119 W07236


W07237 - S4119 W07236


W06824 - S4101 W06827 - S4119 W07236

RMK: IS DETECTED IN THE WEBCAM ONE EXPLOSIVE ERUPTION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20150423/0500Z

VAG FVAG01 SABM 222300

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Monitoring and Observations

• VA SIGMET

• AIREPs; Special AIREPs (ARS)

• AMDAR (Aerolíneas Argentinas – Lan Argentina)

• Volcanic Observatory reports (VO) from Argentina, Chile and Perú

• METARs• METARs

• Webcam volcano images OVDAS

• Global service for lightning activity

• Met. RADAR (where available)

• Satellite imagery ( GOES E –G 13, 1-2-4-6 bands)

• LIDAR

• TOPAS

Monitoring and Observations

Buenos Aires

LIDAR / TOPAS networkBuenos Aires

Neuquén

Bariloche

Com. Rivadavia

Río Gallegos

Trelew

LIDAR / TOPAS network

Modelling

� HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory VA dispersion model

• Run at the NMS of Argentina on to the GFS numerical model (Global Forecast System,

NCEP).

� FALL 3D (Eulerian dispersion and concentration model for VA) NMS of Argentina - BSC� FALL 3D (Eulerian dispersion and concentration model for VA) NMS of Argentina - BSC

• Coupled to the

-GFS numerical model;

-local numerical model WRF-ARW (experimental); and

-local operational version of ETA NMS numerical model (adapted to the

VAAC BA AoR, better grid resolution).

• Ash concentration, ground load and deposition thickness.

VAAC BA Products

• Internet site - www. smn.gov.ar - (En-Sp)

• Daily VAA – VAG T+24

• Archives 2011-2015

• FALL 3D model run

• LIDAR observations• LIDAR observations

• Graphic reports by cities

• Direct contact with Airline operators.

• Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales-CONAE-, MODIS imagery

• Links to:

• Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN), Chile

• Observatorio Vulcanológico INGEMMET , Perú

• Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino (SEGEMAR)

VAAC Buenos Aires improvements

• New International Volcano Database ID numbers for VAACs (as of October 1st, 2013;

related to IAVWOPSG Conclusion 7/30).

• VAG T+24 (as of July 1st, 2014);

– Where is this information published by other VAACs??

• Confidence levels (under consideration)

– “IAVWOPSG Conclusion 7/9, Expressing confidence at the time of observation of an ash cloud

(T+0) in the VAA/VAG.

– Submitted to this BP Workshop for further discussion.

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� Interagency Volcanic Ash Information management protocol

for Argentina.

• Project Source: Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Productiva , Comisión Gestión de Riesgo

• National Agencies involved: SEGEMAR, NMS; SHN; CONAE; CONICET; IGN; CIN; APN, among others.

• User: Subsecretaría de Protección Civil y Abordaje Integral de Emergencias y Catástrofes, Min. de Seguridad.

• Main objective: to better articulate the scientific, technological and administrative capacities of all agencies

involved for a better management of the hazardous situations posed by the presence of VA in the

Argentinian territory in order to improve national decision making processes. Argentinian territory in order to improve national decision making processes.

• Specific objectives:

• Provide thorough information on the volcanos and the level of threat of an eruption;

• Catalog of active volcanos

• Monitor the threat of an eruption and provide VA forecasts (from dispersion and transport models), to determine

potentially affected areas

• Isopach maps and VA deposit forecast

• Water & Air quality assessment in the affected areas

• Efficient warnings

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� Design and develop a database of volcanoes VORHISE (Volcanes de la Región y su

Historia Eruptiva), to collect and validate its data.

• Eruptive history, behavior and characterization of the volcanos under the VAAC BA AoR.

• Global /National data bases

-Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program

-LaMEVE (Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions) (Crosweller et al., 2012), Univ. of Bristol, U.K.-LaMEVE (Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions) (Crosweller et al., 2012), Univ. of Bristol, U.K.

-Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN)

• VORHISE will include volcano location, ID number, type/height; and for each recorded eruption, the

dates and/or the duration of the activity, height/s column/s eruptive/s, granulometric characteristics

and parameters of shape of the ash emitted by volcanoes, explosivity index (VEI), volume,

petrographic and geochemical characteristics of the material erupted, among other data.

• Information will be used to adjust the initialization of dispersion forecast models and to

create scenarios for future eruptions.

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� VA hazard maps

• Create eruption/re-suspension VA hazard maps for the VAAC BA AoR.

• State of the art tools, including VA dispersion forecast model and deposit model ensemble

and use of advanced satellite data processing techniques for validation.and use of advanced satellite data processing techniques for validation.

• The maps will depict the probability of the presence of VA, its concentration in the

atmosphere and the thickness of its ground deposits exceeding certain given thresholds.

• This cartography will combine the most probable vulcanological scenarios for the more

explosive volcanos with the typical regional synoptic situations.

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� Remote sensing

• Evaluation and implementation of algorithms for qualitative detection and retrieval of

volcanic ash following the work of Prata (Prata & Grant, 2001; Prata, 2011) and the

developments of Pavolonis (2010) for the GOES R ABI.

• Development of a multi-sensor, multi-band detection algorithm using Chaitén and Cordón

Caulle volcanos data.

• Characterization of the re-suspended VA event of October 2011 using MODIS, and work

on the identification of the plume event of December 14th, 2013 informed to VAAC BA by

M. Pavolonis.

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Other VAAC BA activities

VAAC exercises

• Annual SIGMET WV tests, last on Dec. 2014• Southern Hemisphere Ash Propagation Exercise (SHAPE), VAACs Tolouse-Buenos Aires(Guide for “Collaborative Decision Analysis and Forecasting (CDAF)”- ICAO 9766 Manual).

VAAC best practice documentation

• Operations Manual, in progress• Competency assessment of VAAC BA personnel , in progress• QMS ISO 9001-2008, in progress• QMS ISO 9001-2008, in progress

Lectures/Training

• ”Volcano Monitoring using Infrasound” Latest developments on the use of infrasound data (CTBTO type data) and their usefulness in detecting volcanic eruptions, by Dr. Maurizio Ripepe, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra - Geofisica della terra solida-Firenze, Italia.

• Lidar operation/ interpretation training for Met. Obervers and Forecasters, 2015.

Visits

Brazilian Air Force; VP WMO CAeM

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