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Volume 2 | Issue 5 | Page 26-30 | Sep 2011

A New Approach to Feeding the World By Janet Ranganathan, Craig Hanson

UN Photo/Fardin Waezi

A farmer in Keshem, Afghanistan, plows his field. Climate change, degradation of soils, and rising populations have led many to voice concerns about food security in the coming decades. A new approach to food production that also respects ecological limits is needed.

For centuries, Minqin Oasis, along the Silk Road in northwestern China, provided a welcome port of call to

travelers, serving as a natural barrier against the unremitting dryness of the Tengger and Badain Jaran deserts.

That changed in the 1950s, when Chairman Mao implemented a national plan to boost food production. The

resulting cultivation, deforestation, irrigation, and reclamation of the oasis initially boosted food output, but

inadvertently degraded the capacity of Minqin’s natural ecosystems to provide freshwater and prevent soil

erosion. Without these critical ecological defenses, the fertile land succumbed to encroaching deserts, forcing

residents to abandon their homes and farms.1

Decades later and thousands of miles away, in the Gulf of Mexico, nutrient runoff from intensive crop, livestock,

and biofuel production in the Mississippi River basin has cut a devastating path through coastal ecosystems and

fisheries.2 The result is a dead zone roughly the size of the state of New Jersey.3

Unfortunately, these two examples are not isolated cases. Replicated countless times across the globe, they

serve as stark illustrations of the unintended consequences of humankind’s growing demand for food. And they

join a parade of ecosystem casualties from modern food production systems, including deforestation (driven by

palm oil in southeast Asia and beef and soybeans in the Amazon); wetland draining to make way for arable land;

and overfishing, one of the leading local threats to 60 percent of the world’s coral reefs.4

In many ways the modern food production system has been a miraculous success. Dramatic increases in food

production over the past 50 years have supported significant improvements in human well-being. Yet, at the same

time, the relentless spread of farmland and accompanying massive inputs of chemicals have undercut the

capacity of ecosystems to provide the very services that underpin food production, including freshwater,

pollination, erosion control, and water regulation (see Box).5-7

Scientists worry that increased food production is masking a time lag between ecosystem degradation and the

resulting effects on human

well-being. The chipping

away at the Amazon, for

example, could push the

entire region to a tipping

point beyond which it

experiences widespread

dieback and transitions into

savanna-like vegetation.8

The resulting changes in

forest cover and rainfall

could seriously impact both

crop production and cattle

ranching in the region. As

climate change impacts

exacerbate food production

stresses on ecosystems, it

is conceivable that such

collapses could become commonplace. The implications for food security are serious, especially in developing

countries where 2 billion rural poor depend on healthy ecosystems for sustenance.

It may be tempting to dismiss the latest concerns about food price spikes. After all, at least since Malthus, the

“glass half empty” crowd has worried unnecessarily that food production would not keep up with population

growth. Yet human ingenuity has always found ways to boost production by creating new varieties of plants,

bringing more land into production, inventing new forms of mechanization, or introducing practices such as

irrigation.

But this time things are different. As ecosystem services continue to degrade, soil fertility diminishes, and rainfall

runoff and soil erosion increase, continuing to rely on improved seeds and chemical fertilizers is likely to yield

diminishing returns. And beyond declining productivity of cropland, other worrying trends are converging to

threaten food security, including rising populations, climate change, and competing demands for water, land, and

crops.

Food Production: Key Culprit in Ecosystem Degradation

Habitat conversion: Approximately 43 percent of tropical and subtropical forests

and 45 percent of temperate forests have been converted to croplands.

Overexploitation: 70 percent of global freshwater is used for agriculture.

Invasive species: The introduction of aquatic alien fish species has led to the

extinction of native species in many parts of the world.

Pollution: Only a fraction of the nitrogen applied as fertilizer is used by plants, the

rest ends up in inland waters and coastal systems, creating eutrophication and

dead zones.2

Climate change: Agriculture directly contributed to around 14 percent of global

greenhouse gas emissions in 2005 and drives additional emissions through its role

in deforestation.

These trends beg an obvious and increasingly urgent question. Can the current food production system feed a

growing population in a changing climate while sustaining ecosystems? The answer is an emphatic “no.”

A new approach is imperative and overdue, one in which the world feeds more people—an estimated 9 billion by

2050—with less ecological impact. To be successful, this new approach must address both how we produce and

how we use food.

Encouragingly, national governments and international institutions, including the Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Bank, and agribusiness, have recently woken up to the scale

of this challenge, and a wide range of solutions are germinating. Below, we highlight three examples of

sustainable solutions that show potential for being scaled up around the world.

Money and Food Growing under Trees: Agroforestry in Niger

Despite ranking 167th out of 169 nations in the 2010 Human Development Index, Niger is the setting for a farmer-

led “re-greening” movement that has reversed desertification and brought increased crop production, income,

food security, and self-reliance to impoverished rural producers.9

Agroforestry, the integration of trees into food crop landscapes to maintain a green cover year-round, was a

traditional African farming practice until colonization introduced the mindset that trees and crops should be

separated. Trees were removed from vast expanses of land across Africa, and creeping desertification ensued.

World Resources Institute and Richard Morin/Solutions

Over the past 20 years, however, development agencies and NGOs have led tree regeneration and planting

efforts in Niger, transforming heavily cropped and degraded savannas into fertile land densely studded with trees,

shrubs, and crops. The movement blossomed after pilot projects found that, when planted with crops, trees act as

windbreaks to counter erosion, increase soil fertility by providing enriching mulch and fixing nitrogen in root

systems, and provide a valuable source of wood and fodder. For good measure, they also sequester carbon

dioxide from the atmosphere. The scale of the change is impressive, affecting more than five million hectares of

land—about the size of Costa Rica.10

By 2007, between a quarter and half of the country’s farmers were involved, and about 4.5 million people were

reaping the benefits.11 Soil fertility and crop harvests have risen, spurring better diets, improved nutrition, higher

incomes, and increased capacity to cope with drought. And with farmers producing more fuelwood, Niger’s

previously shrinking forests have been spared further destruction.

Development agencies and NGOs adopted a combination of approaches to bring about Niger’s transformation,

but three stand out:

• They invested in simple, low-cost techniques for managing the natural regeneration of on-farm trees and

shrubs and improving soil and water conservation techniques.12

• They shifted away from treating forest protection as the state’s exclusive responsibility and toward

generating farmer support and using “farmer-to-farmer visits” to promote improved practices.9

• They encouraged tree tenure reform. In postcolonial Niger, the government had claimed ownership of

forests and strictly controlled the harvesting of trees. Farmers were fined or even imprisoned for harvesting

trees without a permit or for simply lopping off branches. But, between 1998 and 2004, government tenure

reforms relaxed the rules, tipping the balance toward farmer self-interest in regenerating and managing trees

on their land.

Agroforestry has potential well beyond Niger. Similar initiatives for farmer-managed, natural regeneration are now

under way in Zambia, Malawi, and Burkina Faso, suggesting that agroforestry may be applicable to a broad range

of food crop systems in Africa. To be successful, however, these initiatives need to be accompanied by the kind of

governance reforms embarked on in Niger, blanket extension efforts, and strong buy-in from farmers.13,14

Having Your Palm Oil and Forest, Too

As we implied earlier, there is an urgent need to halt the expansion of food production into natural ecosystems

whose services, in turn, underpin agriculture. A readymade solution may be at hand. Globally, more than 1 billion

hectares of cleared and degraded forestlands—an area the size of Brazil—may hold potential for increased

human use.15 And while more research is needed to know how much of this is suitable for food production, while

respecting the rights of local people, restoring even a small percentage would help reduce pressure on natural

ecosystems.

Beth Gingold/World Resources Institute

Around the world, there are more than 1 billion hectares of cleared and degraded forestlands. The Indonesian government is now looking to use degraded lands for future palm oil plantations to avoid clearing intact rainforests.

The government of Indonesia, home to a tenth of the world’s remaining tropical rainforests, is exploring such an

approach, seeking to break the link between crops and deforestation.16 In May 2010 degraded land made it onto

the Indonesian national agenda when President Yudhoyono declared a new strategy to develop oil palm

plantations on degraded land instead of forests or peatlands.

Indonesia is at the center of the booming global palm oil industry, and its forests are shrinking, making it one of

the world’s largest emitters of carbon dioxide. Since palm oil creates much needed revenues and jobs,

Indonesia’s government aims to double current production to 40 million metric tons per year by 2020. Based on

today’s yields, this increase would require new plantations covering an area larger than Switzerland.17

The World Resources Institute has been working with palm oil producers, local partners, and communities in

Kalimantan to make the government’s vision for restoring degraded land a reality.18 Our activities include mapping

degraded land, legal analysis, community engagement, and capacity building for local government officials on

land use planning. We have found that one key to unlocking the potential of degraded land is mapping where it

exists and which areas have the potential for palm oil production. Another, albeit trickier, factor is addressing

ownership and land tenure issues, and adopting fiscal and regulatory reforms that will enable optimal land use

and facilitate restoration of degraded lands.

In addition, if degraded land is to be put to use around the world, financial incentives may be needed to

encourage companies, communities, and governments to shift planned, permitted plantations to new sites. One

potential incentive is payments made under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change for reducing

emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries (REDD).

Saving Our Daily Bread from Wastage

Food is wasted in many ways: it’s discarded, lost, or degraded or consumed by pests between field and fork. All

this adds up, and an estimated minimum of 30 percent of all food grown worldwide never reaches human

mouths.19 In developing countries, wastage typically occurs post harvest, while, in developed countries,

consumers and the food services sector are the largest sources of wastage. Tackling food wastage offers a rare

opportunity for a quadruple win-win solution by reducing pressures on land, cutting greenhouse gas emissions,

reducing water use, and saving money.

Reducing food wastage is not typically discussed as a food security solution. However, as the squeeze on food

supply tightens and demand rises along with population growth, this is likely to change. And a few scattered

examples of success are starting to emerge, in both developing and developed countries, which could offer scale-

up potential.

A UN Food and Agriculture Organization project in Afghanistan, for example, reduced post-harvest losses from

around 20 percent to less than 2 percent, by improving grain storage facilities and enhancing the skills of local

tinsmiths in silo construction. Silos protect food from pests, rodents, birds, and fungi. Participating farmers used

silos to store cereal grains and grain legumes, creating higher incomes and longer storage possibilities.20

UN Photo/WFP

Farmers harvest wheat in Badakhshan, Afghanistan. By improving grain storage facilities, a UN Food and Agriculture Organization project in Afghanistan reduced post-harvest losses from around 20 percent to less than 2 percent.

In developed countries, too, simple changes can dramatically reduce consumption-side food waste. In the United

States, where one survey concluded that 76 percent of consumers erroneously believe certain foods are unsafe

to eat after the “best before” date has passed, organizations like ShelfLifeAdvice.com are working to educate

consumers about what food labels really mean.21 Meanwhile, in Britain, the Department for the Environment,

Food, and Rural Affairs is planning the release of new guidance for consumers that will reform “best before” and

“use by” dates on packaged foods.22 In the food services industry, too, small steps can make a big difference. For

example, a survey of U.S. colleges found that food waste fell 25 to 30 percent per person when trays were

removed from dining halls.23 Students took less food, only going back for seconds if needed.

Tomorrow’s Approach

If the world is to feed 9 billion people in 2050 and successfully navigate ecological tipping points in the face of

climate change, solutions such as the above will be needed on a global scale. Meeting this challenge will take all

the ingenuity that farmers, companies, conservationists, agricultural experts, ecologists, and others can muster.

The good news is that examples of “tomorrow’s approach” are already beginning to emerge. The challenge is

scaling them up effectively, and in time.

Acknowledgments

This article is based on a paper for the World Resources Report (WRR) 2010–2011, “Decision Making in a

Changing Climate.” The topic of the next WRR will be food futures.

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