METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

VOLUME 32 NUMBER 54NOVEMBER 2004

NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS

VOLUME I: OVERVIEW

Paul J. KocinLouis W. Uccellini

American Meteorological Society45 Beacon Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02108

METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

VOLUME 32 NUMBER 54NOVEMBER 2004

NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS

VOLUME II: THE CASES

Paul J. KocinLouis W. Uccellini

American Meteorological Society45 Beacon Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02108

Credits for photographs on the dust jacket

Front coverRichmond Hill, New York City, 27 Dec 1947 (New York HistoricalSociety).

Back coverTop row: (left) Skiers at Radio City Music Hall, Feb 2003 (courtesyof Rob Gardiner, www.nyclondon.com); (middle) Hamilton St, 30Jan 1966 (Blizzards and Snowstrorm of Washington, D.C., Histor-ical Enterprises, 1993, p. 63); (right) Snarled traffic on the NorthernState Pkwy, 12 Feb 1983 (Great Blizzards of New York City, His-torical Enterprises, 1994, p. 73).Upper-middle row: (left) Cars buried in snow near the Capitol, 16Feb 1958 (Washington Weather: The Weather Sourcebook for theD.C. Area, Historical Enterprises, 2002); (middle) New York City,6 Apr 1982 (photo reprinted courtesy of the New York Times); (right)Snowplows on the Long Island Expressway, 11 Feb 1983 (photoreprinted courtesy of Newsday).Lower-middle row: (left) Student walks home from school, 13 Jan1964 (courtesy of Washington Weather: The Weather Sourcebookfor the D.C. Area, Historical Enterprises, 2002); (middle) Walkingacross the Memorial Bridge, 7 Feb 1967 (Washington Weather: TheWeather Sourcebook for the D.C. Area, Historical Enterprises,2002); (right) After the snowstorm of 15 Feb 1958 (WashingtonWeather: The Weather Sourcebook for the D.C. Area, HistoricalEnterprises, 2002).Bottom row: (left) Times Square, 7 Feb 1967 (reprinted courtesyof the New York Times); (middle) Knickerbocker Snowstorm, 28Jan 1922 (Washington Weather: The Weather Sourcebook for theD.C. Area, Historical Enterprises, 2002); (right) A hotel at Rock-away Beach, 1920 (Great Blizzards of New York City, HistoricalEnterprises, 1994, p. 3).

� Copyright 2004 by the American Meteorological Society. Per-mission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this mono-graph in scientific and educational works is hereby granted providedthe source is acknowledged. All rights reserved. No part of thispublication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, ortransmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior writtenpermission of the publisher.

ISBN 1-878220-64-0ISSN 0065-9401

Support for this monograph has been provided by the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Ser-vice and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Published by the American Meteorological Society45 Beacon St., Boston, MA 02108

For a catalog and ordering information for AMS Books, whichinclude meteorological and historical monographs, see www.ametsoc.org/pubs/books.

Additional material to this book can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com

Credits for photographs on the dust jacket

Front coverHempstead, Long Island, 6 Feb 1978 (photo reprinted courtesy ofNewsday).

Back coverTop row: (left) Skiers at Radio City Music Hall, Feb 2003 (courtesyof Rob Gardiner, www.nyclondon.com); (middle) Hamilton St, 30Jan 1966 (Blizzards and Snowstrorm of Washington, D.C., Histor-ical Enterprises, 1993, p. 63); (right) Snarled traffic on the NorthernState Pkwy, 12 Feb 1983 (Great Blizzards of New York City, His-torical Enterprises, 1994, p. 73).Upper-middle row: (left) Cars buried in snow near the Capitol, 16Feb 1958 (Washington Weather: The Weather Sourcebook for theD.C. Area, Historical Enterprises, 2002); (middle) New York City,6 Apr 1982 (photo reprinted courtesy of the New York Times); (right)Snowplows on the Long Island Expressway, 11 Feb 1983 (photoreprinted courtesy of Newsday).Lower-middle row: (left) Student walks home from school, 13 Jan1964 (courtesy of Washington Weather: The Weather Sourcebookfor the D.C. Area, Historical Enterprises, 2002); (middle) Walkingacross the Memorial Bridge, 7 Feb 1967 (Washington Weather: TheWeather Sourcebook for the D.C. Area, Historical Enterprises,2002); (right) After the snowstorm of 15 Feb 1958 (WashingtonWeather: The Weather Sourcebook for the D.C. Area, HistoricalEnterprises, 2002).Bottom row: (left) Times Square, 7 Feb 1967 (reprinted courtesyof the New York Times); (middle) Knickerbocker Snowstorm, 28Jan 1922 (Washington Weather: The Weather Sourcebook for theD.C. Area, Historical Enterprises, 2002); (right) A hotel at Rock-away Beach, 1920 (Great Blizzards of New York City, HistoricalEnterprises, 1994, p. 3).

� Copyright 2004 by the American Meteorological Society. Per-mission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this mono-graph in scientific and educational works is hereby granted providedthe source is acknowledged. All rights reserved. No part of thispublication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, ortransmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior writtenpermission of the publisher.

ISBN 1-878220-64-0ISSN 0065-9401

Support for this monograph has been provided by the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Ser-vice and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Published by the American Meteorological Society45 Beacon St., Boston, MA 02108

For a catalog and ordering information for AMS Books, whichinclude meteorological and historical monographs, see www.ametsoc.org/pubs/books.

DEDICATION

I would like to dedicate this book to my sons, Matthew and Joshua; my parents, Eugene and Irene; my sister Barbara; my brother-in-law Tony; and to Marla Lahat. This dedication is extended to Keith Brill and many friends who have been there for me during turbulent and sometimes wonderful times in the Washington D.C. area and in Atlanta, Georgia. I would also like to dedicate this book to the memory of Dave Ludi um, and to Steve Pond, whom I will never forget. Finally, this dedication is extended to those countless weather enthusiasts who feel the same excitement for a good snowstorm as 1 do.

Paul J. Kocin

This book is dedicated to my parents, Louis D. and Margaret A. Uccellini, for having the wherewithal to put up with an odd child with an obsession for snowstorms and other weather phenomena, and who bad the foresight to buy me a weather station before the age of ten; and to my wife Susan and three children, Anthony, Francesca, and Dominic, whO have gamely tolerated the obsession with weather that marks the Uccellini household, as weil as the "walks in the snow" that don't happen often enough.

Louis W. Uccellini

Awakening to deep snow, Richmond Hill, New York City, 27 Dec 1947 (from New York Historical Society).

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Dedication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii

Chapter 1. Introduction1. Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32. The challenge of forecasting Northeast snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43. Basis for a snowstorm monograph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Chapter 2. Climatology1. Snowfall measurement issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92. Seasonal snowfall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Chapter 3. Synoptic Descriptions of Major Snowstorms: Snowfall and Surface Features1. Snowfall distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412. Cyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463. Anticyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Chapter 4. Synoptic Descriptions of Major Snowstorms: Upper-Level Features1. Descriptions of upper-level features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 792. The large-scale upper-level environment prior to the development of Northeast

snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 793. Upper-level conditions during the development of Northeast snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1014. Satellite signatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

Photograph insert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

Chapter 5. ‘‘Near Miss’’ Events in the Urban Corridor1. Precipitation changeovers within major Northeast snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1432. Interior snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1473. Moderate snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1534. Ice and sleet storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

Chapter 6. Mesoscale Aspects of Northeast Snowfall Distribution1. Examples of snowbands with possible linkage to midlevel frontogenesis and symmetric

stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1772. Examples of snowbands linked to surface fronts and inverted pressure troughs . . . . . . . . . . 1863. Gravity waves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1934. Mesoscale snowfall related to elevation, thundersnow, and ‘‘bay effect’’ snow squalls . . . . 1945. Other mesoscale considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1966. Concluding remarks: Impact of NEXRAD radars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

Chapter 7. Dynamical and Physical Processes Influencing Northeast Snowstorms1. Cyclogenesis and upper-level processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2072. Low-level processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2143. Cold surface anticyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2174. Sensible and latent heat release . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2185. The positive feedback between physical and dynamical processes during East

Coast cyclogenesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2196. Stratospheric extrusions, tropopause folds, and related potential vorticity

contributions to East Coast cyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2237. Sutcliffe’s self-development concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

Chapter 8. Summary, Forecast Advances, and a Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)1. Climatological–synoptic–mesoscale review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2332. Processes contributing to the episodic character of Northeast snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2353. Advances in the prediction of Northeast snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2384. Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) derived from Northeast storm

snowfall distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

Appendix. Seasonal Snowfall Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297

Chapter 9. Historical Overview1. A review of major snowstorms from the Colonial period to 1950 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2992. Selected snowstorms: 1900–50 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315

Chapter 10. Thirty-Two Selected Snowstorms: 1950–20031. 18–20 March 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3582. 14–17 February 1958 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3663. 18–21 March 1958 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3754. 2–5 March 1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3835. 10–13 December 1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3916. 19–20 January 1961 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4007. 2–5 February 1961 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4088. 11–14 January 1964 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4169. 29–31 January 1966 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425

10. 23–25 December 1966 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43411. 5–7 February 1967 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44212. 8–10 February 1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45013. 22–28 February 1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45914. 25–28 December 1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46715. 18–20 February 1972 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47616. 19–21 January 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48417. 5–7 February 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49418. 18–20 February 1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50519. 5–7 April 1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51620. 10–12 February 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52621. 21–23 January 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53622. 25–27 January 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54623. 22–24 February 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55624. 12–14 March 1993 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56625. 8–11 February 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57826. 3–5 February 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59027. 6–8 January 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59928. 31 March–1 April 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60929. 24–26 January 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61930. 30–31 December 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62931. 15–18 February 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63932. 5–7 December 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 650

Chapter 11. Descriptions of ‘‘Near Miss’’ Events1. Interior snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 659

a. 17–18 February 1952 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 659b. 16–17 March 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 663c. 12–13 March 1959 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 664d. 13–15 February 1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 664e. 6–7 March 1962 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665f. 18–19 February 1964 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665g. 22–24 January 1966 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 668h. 3–5 March 1971 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674i. 25–27 November 1971 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 677j. 16–18 January 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680k. 28–29 March 1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 683l. 1–2 January 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 686

iv VOL. 32, NO. 54M E T E O R O L O G I C A L M O N O G R A P H S

m. 11–12 December 1991 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 689n. 3–4 January 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 692o. 2–4 March 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 695

2. Moderate snowstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 701a. 4–5 December 1957 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 704b. 23–25 December 1961 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 707c. 14–15 February 1962 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 710d. 22–24 December 1963 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 713e. 16–17 January 1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 716f. 21–22 March 1967 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 719g. 31 December 1970–1 January 1971 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 722h. 13–15 January 1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 725i. 8–9 March 1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 728j. 7–8 January 1988 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 733k. 27–28 December 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 734l. 19–21 December 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 740m. 2–4 February 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743n. 16–17 February 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 746o. 14–15 March 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 749

3. Ice storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 752a. 7–9 January 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 755b. 16–17 December 1973 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 758c. 13–14 January 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 761d. 7–9 January 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 764e. 17 January 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 767f. 27–28 January 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770g. 14–15 January 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 773

Photograph insert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .774

Chapter 12. Early and Late Season Snows1. October and November events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 779

a. 3–4 October 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 779b. 10 October 1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 780c. 6–7 November 1953 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 786d. 10–12 November 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 789e. 26–27 November 1898 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 790

2. April and May events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 793a. 3–4 April 1915 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 794b. 9–10 April 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 795c. 18–19 April 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 796d. 9–10 May 1977 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 800

3. Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 803

Photograph insert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .807

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 811DVD Instructions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 819

vii

PREFACE

Saturday, 8 February 1969, was not the bitterly coldday that often serves as a harbinger of a severe wintersnowstorm on New York’s Long Island. Instead, it wasgenerally sunny and cool, about 40�F(5�C). The weatherforecast that morning, though, provided a little bit ofencouragement to a 13-year-old snow fanatic: ‘‘Tomor-row will be cloudy with rain OR SNOW likely.’’

I1 knew from experience that the probability of a bigsnowstorm on Long Island was not very great becauseof its close proximity to the relatively warm AtlanticOcean. I had already felt the crushing disappointmentwhen potentially major snowstorms became rainstorms,and sure days off from school became days like all therest. My pessimism was reinforced by the local weatherreports on Saturday evening, indicating southeasterlywinds, a bad sign for impending snowstorms. As I wentto bed that night, I prepared myself for the usual dis-appointment, since outdoor temperatures held wellabove freezing and the wind continued to blow fromthe ocean.

When I awakened the following morning, a strongwind was whistling through the air-conditioning unitthat extended outside my room. This sound was notenough to arouse me until I suddenly realized that theglow emanating from the translucent shutters coveringmy window was unusually bright for early morning. Ishot out of bed and flung open the shutters to discoverthat the world outside was white. There wasn’t verymuch accumulation on the ground yet, maybe an inch,but the snow was falling fast and flying horizontallyfrom the northeast. A busy day lay ahead of me!

While my family still slept, I ran from window towindow to see how the storm was changing the envi-ronment outside. I turned the radio on, only to becomeannoyed at the weather forecasters’ insistences that thesnow would soon end. After a while, confidence in theoriginal forecasts eroded as the storm grew more andmore intense.

By late morning, my family awoke in astonishmentas they gazed out the window, wondering what to donow that they knew the day would be spent inside. Thesnow had picked up in intensity, falling at perhaps 1 or2 inches (2.5 to 5 cm) per hour. Savoring every moment,I felt victorious when the weather forecasters finallysuccumbed to the storm and admitted that they didn’tknow how much more would fall or when the stormwould end. Then, the inevitable comparisons with ear-lier blizzards began to pour forth from the radio andTV.

1 Paul J. Kocin

The day wore on and snow continued to fall heavily.The wind increased, making it difficult to determine howmuch of the swirling snow outside was due to fallingsnow versus snow blowing off the roof or from theground. Drifting snow eventually began to cover severalwindows, making it more difficult to observe what wasobviously a great storm. As the drifts grew, it becameimpossible to open the front door, and by evening, thecars parked on the street appeared as white swells inthe sea of snow that covered the street. Tremendousgusts of wind whistled through the house and actuallyseemed to shake the foundation.

The snow finally ended in the middle of the night.About 18 hours had passed since the time the earlyforecasts indicated that the storm would cease. By morn-ing, the only sound heard was that of an overworkedsnowplow. Radio reports now documented the extent ofthe storm. The entire New York City metropolitan areawas paralyzed. As several hundred cars became strand-ed, scores of motorists spent a harrowing night on theTappan Zee Bridge north of New York City. Many othermotorists met similar fates on the myriad of roadwaysthroughout the metropolitan area that were littered withstranded cars. Thousands more were stranded at airportsthat remained closed anywhere from 1 to 2 days fol-lowing the storm. Food was airlifted by helicopter toKennedy Airport to feed the weary travelers. Schoolsclosed on Monday and many didn’t reopen until Thurs-day, Friday, or even the following Monday. Snowclear-ing equipment was slow to be deployed in parts of theNew York City area and couldn’t keep up with the storm.Some city streets remained unplowed many days afterthe storm, creating a public furor. Dozens of deaths andseveral hundred injuries were attributed to the stormwhile millions of dollars were lost due to delayed orlost business.

This particular snowstorm, and other similar stormsduring the late 1950s and 1960s, provided the moti-vation for the monograph that follows. Questions con-cerning how these storms develop, what weather pat-terns provide clues that foretell such events, and whatfactors delineate snow/no snow situations, have chal-lenged forecasters and researchers alike. This study isour attempt at describing a phenomenon that has stirredour curiosity, and provided countless hours of specu-lation, entertainment, and, for those numerous falsealarms, profound disappointment. The disappointments(i.e., those storms that changed to rain or veered harm-lessly out to sea) will not be highlighted here. The great-est snowstorms to affect the northeastern coast of theUnited States during the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s,1990s, and the beginning of the 21st century will beexplored in the following chapters.

viii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

First we wish to acknowledge and thank the NationalWeather Service, the Office of Oceanic and AtmosphericResearch, and The Weather Channel for their supportthroughout this effort to update and upgrade the Snow-storm Monograph.

We have benefited from the support of many indi-viduals who have all made important contributions tothe successful completion of this 8-year project. Fromour days at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, wethank those who encouraged us and nurtured the originalmonograph, published in 1990, that served as a basisfor this updated version: Dr. David Atlas, Dr. JoanneSimpson, Kelly Pecnick, Mary des Jardins, LafayetteLong, Bill Skillman, Dr. Franco Einaudi, Dr. RobertAtlas, and Dr. Ken Spengler.

Many meteorologists from the National Center forEnvironmental Prediction’s Hydrometeorological Pre-diction Center and The Weather Channel also helpedwith analyses, including Dan Graf, Dan Petersen, NicoleVanderzon, Jon Van Ausdall, Greg DeVoir, Jon Flatley,and many others. We also thank Robert Kistler from theEnvironmental Modeling Center for helping with thereanalysis process used to produce the maps in volumeII, which was supported through the NOAA Office ofGlobal Programs, and specifically Dr. Ming Ji.

We especially single out Keith Brill from NCEP’sHydrometeorological Prediction Center and Michael N.Baker from the Scientific Application International Cor-poration for attending to the reanalysis and the manysteps required in production of the final figures in vol-ume II. Volume II would not have been possible withouttheir expert follow through. We’d also like to thankMike Halpert and Wesley Ebisuzaki of the Climate Pre-diction Center for their help in the production of theDVD. We thank Rafael Ameller of StormCenter Com-

munications, Inc., for his expertise in production ofmany schematics and other figures.

We thank Ray Ban, Stu Ostro, and Tawnya Carterfrom The Weather Channel for their continued support,and John Stremikis from the University of WisconsinExtension for walking us through the new electronicworld of manuscript editing and production that shapedboth volumes. We also thank Mary Des Jardins for herdevelopment of the GEneral Meteorological PAcKage(GEMPAK), which was used extensively to create thefigures for all of the case studies and related figuresproduced in this monograph. We also thank Brian Dotyfrom the Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies(COLA) for the use of GrADS for accessing the datafrom the DVD in volume II and providing easy displaycapabilities from that gridded dataset.

Chris Velden of Space Science and Engineering Cen-ter at the University of Wisconsin—Madison has alwaysprovided ready access to high-quality satellite data andimagery. Thomas Karl and his able staff at the NationalClimatic Data Center were always quick and willing torespond to our seemingly endless requests for data. Thestaff of the NOAA Central Library in Maryland wasalso an incredibly valuable resource in acquiring datafor the many analyses. Photographs were provided byJon Nese, the New York Historical Society, the Libraryof Congress, Kevin Ambrose, Rob Gardiner, Keith Stan-ley, Eric Pence, Bill Swartwout, and many others.

Thomas Karl, Lance Bosart, and Peter Ray offeredreviews and many suggestions that greatly helped usrefine the final version of the monograph.

Last but not least, we thank the able staff at the Amer-ican Meteorological Society Headquarters, who helpedshepherd this two-volume monograph through the ed-itorial process to produce the final product, especiallyGretchen Needham and Stuart Muench.