VTRA CASE B: VTRA CASE B: DRIFT ROUNDING DRIFT ROUNDING RESULTSRESULTS

Assessment of Oil Spill Risk due to Vessel Traffic Assessment of Oil Spill Risk due to Vessel Traffic Docking at Cherry Point (BP), WashingtonDocking at Cherry Point (BP), Washington

GWU Personnel:GWU Personnel: Dr. Jack R. Harrald, Dr. Jack R. Harrald, Dr. J. Rene van DorpDr. J. Rene van Dorp, Dr. Greg Shaw,, Dr. Greg Shaw,

Dr. Thomas A. Mazzuchi, Adil Caner Sener, Christian Salmon Dr. Thomas A. Mazzuchi, Adil Caner Sener, Christian Salmon

RPI Personnel:RPI Personnel: Dr. Martha Grabowski, Zhi Zhou, Zhuyu You, Michael StewardDr. Martha Grabowski, Zhi Zhou, Zhuyu You, Michael Steward

VCU Personnel:VCU Personnel:Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick, Christina WernerDr. Jason R. W. Merrick, Christina Werner

July 14, 2008July 14, 2008

© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007 22

When a TankerWhen a Tanker or Tug underwayor Tug underway and assuming itand assuming it

continues drifting,continues drifting,There is theThere is the

potentialpotential of drift of driftgrounding withingrounding within

5 hours5 hours41% of the time41% of the time

Remaining 37%

Only Average Grid Cell Potential Number of Drift Grounding

Interactions per Year (BP - Vessels)

© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007 33

Average Return Time: 85 years1 Grounding1 Groundingin 11 Yearsin 11 Years

of Dataof Data

Remaining 8%

Only Average Grid Cell Potential Number of Drift Groundings

per Year (BP - Vessels)

0.26% of total BP accident rate

© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007 44

Remaining 43%

5.5 Cubic 5.5 Cubic MetersMeters

On AverageOn AveragePer Year duePer Year due

To DriftTo DriftGroundingGrounding

Average Yearly BP:Total Oil Outflow

Only Average Grid Cell Potential Volume of Total Outflow per Year

(BP - Drift Groundings)

1.69% of total BP & IV Oil Outflow

© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007 55

Remaining 44%

Average Yearly BP: Persistent Oil Outflow

Only Average Grid Cell Potential Volume of BP Persistent Outflow per Year

(BP - Drift Groundings)

5.3 Cubic 5.3 Cubic MetersMeters

On AverageOn AveragePer Year duePer Year due

To DriftTo DriftGroundingGrounding

1.66% of total BP & IV Oil Outflow

© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007© GWU-RPI-VCU November 2007 66

Remaining 14%

Average Yearly BP: Non- Persistent Oil Outflow

Only Average Grid Cell Potential Volume of BP Non-Persistent Outflow per Year

(BP - Drift Groundings)

0.2 Cubic 0.2 Cubic MetersMeters

On AverageOn AveragePer Year duePer Year due

To DriftTo DriftGroundingGrounding

0.03% of total BP & IV Oil Outflow