vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection natasha marinova climwatadapt...
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Vulnerability indicatorsand their relation to the measure selection
Natasha Marinova
ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting
30 March 2011, Budapest
So
urce
FA
O
DPSIR Framework
Water Scarcity – Water stress
Drivers Pressures State Impacts
Climate change T • Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)
• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding
capacity
Jobs
Incomes
PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)
•Structural changes•Land use changes:
Urbanization•Resource use efficiency•Management practices
Quality and quantity of waste water
DroughtsDrivers Pressures State Impacts
Climate change T
• Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)
• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding
capacity
Changes in return period of drought events
Baseline: Minimum flow during a drought event with recurrence period of 50 years D50base
Future (2050): Minimum flow during a drought event with a recurrence period of 10 years D10future
Severe drought event if D10future< D50base
• Relative area affected by droughts
• People affected by drought
Jobs
Incomes
PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)
•Structural changes•Land use changes:
Urbanization•Resource use efficiency•Management practices
Not adjusted to the drought event water demand
Quality and quantity of waste water
Population affected by droughts for EcF and SuE scenarios
Agreement of model runs projecting severe drought events
• Large areas in the Mediterranean Western and Eastern Europe with agreement of up to 100%
• Agreement of more than half of the models in parts of France, Ireland, UK
• Heterogeneous result in Central and Western Europe
FloodsDrivers Pressures State Impacts
Climate change T
• Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)
• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding
capacity
Changes in magnitude of 1-in-100 y flood event
• Area affected by floods
• People affected by floods
Jobs
Incomes
PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)
• Land use changes – urbanization, deforestation, development in flood prone zone, control of rivers
• Level of protection (design return level)
•River bed sedimentation •Loss of wetlands and riparian zones•Soil sealing•Not properly planned drainage
Relative area affected by floods
• Based on the ensemble median
• More than 80% in part of the UK and the Netherlands
• ~ 20% in southern Norway, parts of France, and the Alps
People affected by floods
Agreement of model runs projecting severe flood events
• Agreement of more than half of the models in parts of western France, the Netherlands, Eastern Europe and parts of UK, Spain, Italy, Norway, Sweden
• Low flood risk around the Baltic see
Sea Level Rise
People affected by SLR, 2080
Source PESETA, Coastal Report
Thank you!