Vulnerability:Progress in food Security

Thomas E. DowningEnvironmental Change InstituteOxford

Vulnerability is…

An aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations.

The zephyrs of breeze that locate vulnerability within the trade winds of globalisation and climate change …

… demand our concern, before they become gales

… must be charted with new instruments spawned by multiple disciplines and appropriate technologies

… can be buffered through known strategies and measures

Mozambique waiting for more rain

Workshop challenges

How strong is current knowledge in this area?

What do we best and least understand? What new research would be most

important? What major synthetic approaches have

evolved? Can vulnerability be internalised into

broader integrated assessments?

Outline

Placing vulnerability in context: Demand for information Historical trends

Examples and methodologies State of knowledge Conclusions (if any)

Demand for information Where are the vulnerable?

Targeting geographical region, socio-economic class

Who are vulnerable? Relative vulnerability among households

and individuals What should be done?

Link to intervention/adaptation What is the future of vulnerability?

Exposure to global change, policy impacts

Uses of vulnerability assessments

Scale Indices Users

International Nationalcomparisons ofvulnerability

UNFCCC:Eligibility foradaptationfunding

Regional Multiple dimensionprofiles of regional

vulnerability

Regionalagencies:Programmedesign

LocalProfiles of vulnerable situations

or syndromesLocal offices:Project evaluation

Eco-systems

WaterOthersectors

Food HealthSettle-ment

Historical perspective

Exposure: Food security --> Livelihood security

VAM: Hoovering --> Structured assessment Single indicator --> Profiles -->

Pathways?

Rescaling Regional --> Individual --> Globalisation

How can we assess vulnerability, and its links to global change and adaptive capacity?

Typologies of methodsComparisons of methodsAgency and institutions

Operational vulnerability assessment

How do we develop a consensual definition and measurement of vulnerability?

How do we measure vulnerability?

Typologies

Single and multiple indicesExpert decision support systemEmpiricalProcess model

HDI ClassMissing (10)Low (45)Medium (22)High (100)

Human Development Index

Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1HH Size

Male laborers

Total Income

Total Expenditure

Crops sales price in bad year

Food Aid

Grazing land

Crop land

Mid Altitude

Road Access

Livestock holdings

Types of dairy

Low income crop (V High)

Middle income crop (High)

Crop/dairy (Mod)

Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)

High income dairy (Mod)

Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia

Emerging Sustainable

Farmers

An agent-based approach to seasonal climate forecasting

Climate Forecasters

DisseminationChannels

CommercialFarmers

Vulnerable Farmers

          

 •Represent actors as software agents•Multi-level vulnerability•Processes and pathways•Emergence from interactions

State of knowledge

LevelsProcessesThreats

Competing definitions Common wisdom Evidence based policy (interventions)

Scales of vulnerability Global:

Stable assessment of global poverty Uncertain relations to global change and globalisation

Regional/national: Stable ranking of relative vulnerability

Local: Patchy, depending on assessments Slow response to emerging vulnerable groups

Time scales Short term fluctuations and long term evolution Seasonal scales subject to famine early warning

Processes Human ecology of production:

Well known, but connected to other scales Exchange economy and impoverishment:

Extent of global linkages poor Political economy and empowerment:

Fair understanding Nutritional status and interventions:

Well understood Concatenation of exposure:

Few studies across the range of exposure Difficult to generalise

Threats

Environmental degradation, climate change Conflict Economic change: recession, hyperinflation Underdevelopment

Pathways and mechanisms ? Relative risk Local realisation

Conclusions

ADDITIONAL SLIDES…

HAZARDHAZARD

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

RISK SPACE Risk is the overlay of hazardand vulnerabilityDisasters are the realisationof risk Both hazard and vulnerabilityare changing

Confidence in climate change

Mean Trends ExtremesComplexEpisodes

Projection

TemperatureSea level rise

CO2

Heat wavesLightning

Boundeddivergence

RegionalPrecipitation

Droughtepisodes

Major floods

Risk High tidesPrecipitationin

tensityWindstormsStorm surge

Surprise North AtlanticPersistentdrought

PersistentENSO

Confidence in future climate change varies. Some elements can be projected--the direction of change is known. For others, the sign of the change is not known, but the range of projections is bounded reasonably well. For complex changes, our knowledge is limited to approximate shifts in risks and potential for surprises.

Vulnerability is…

about equity…linking climate change to uneven development

concerns people…begin with the humanitarian concerns for vulnerable socio-economic groups

an integrating method…for targeting adaptation

Priorities for adaptationMean Trends Extremes

ComplexEvents

ProjectionPlan adaptation strategies and

measures:Coastal retreat

Boundeddivergence

Implementadaptationmeasures:

Water efficiency

Risk

Reducevulnerability:

Flood plainrestrictions

Reduce vulnerability, monitor,prepare:

Drought preparedness

SurpriseWorst case scenariosAdaptation failure?

Emergency preparedness

Focus on the most vulnerable groups

Sustainable livelihoods Resource poor Uncertain incomes Marginalised

In context Institutional capacity Governance Infrastructure

Criteria for evaluating adaptation

Apply criteria to relevant stakeholders and vulnerable groups Resilience and effectiveness Strategic responses Timing Economic evaluation Constraints Conflicts

Adaptation strategies for water

Stakeholders Conseq. Antic. Inst. Ed’n. Dev’t

Vulnerable users

Consumers

Large-scale users ?

Private watercarriers

River basinagencies

? ?

Research ?

Ministries

Aid organisations ? ?

Evaluation of strategies in agriculture

Criteria Reserves Trade Technology Aggregate

Stakeholders Aid agencies Companies Agro-tech All

Vulnerable groups ? Low income Women Resource poor

Multiple benefits M M L M

Specific to climate change M L L L

Effectiveness M M H H

Development L M H H

Planning horizon 1-5 1-5 5-10 ~5

Irreversible impacts L L L L

Initial investment M L H M

Realisation of benefits Many Many Producers Many

Information L L M M

Technology L L H H

Socio-political M M H H

Dessication in the Sahel

In the last 10 years long-term impacts of droughts and famines of the 1970s in Sahel became evident

Major droughts in the past Century 1910-1916, 1941-1945, late 1960 with a peak in

1970s

In the last 10 years long-term impacts of droughts and famines of the 1970s in Sahel became evident

Responses

Wide range of coping strategies bartering, migration, social welfare, formal insurance,

education, etc. Research and monitoring: Creation of CILSS in 1973 Early warning systems Working with the human and drought-induced

stress on natural ecosystems Improved agricultural production technologies

(improved variety of millet and sorghum, intensive cultivation techniques)

Increase of rural mobility

Boosting local capacities

Creation of farmers cooperatives Small-scale NGOs and CBOs projects Integration of environmental

rehabilitation to development projects and programs

Innovative techniques in soil and water conservation

Popular erosion control methods Agroforestry

Regional and national levels

Improving and strengthening local management and development initiatives

Building upon own skills, indigenous knowledge and resources

Assess long term trends Improving sustainable livelihood

systems

Cyclones and sea level rise

Progressive coping capacity in Bangladesh: 1 million deaths in 1960s 100,000 deaths in 1970s 10,000 deaths in 1980s 1,000 deaths in 1990s

Aid can be effective