wade cole washington state institute for public policy phone: (360) 586-2791
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Relating WASL Completion and Performance to High School Graduation Early Learning & K–12 Education Committee November 14, 2007. Wade Cole Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2791 E-mail: [email protected] WSIPP publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov. 1 of 19. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Wade ColeWade ColeWashington State Institute for Public Policy
Phone: (360) 586-2791E-mail: [email protected]
WSIPP publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov
Relating WASL Completion and Performance to
High School Graduation
Early Learning & K–12 Education CommitteeEarly Learning & K–12 Education CommitteeNovember 14, 2007November 14, 2007
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Washington State Institute for Public PolicyWashington State Institute for Public Policy
Created by the 1983 Washington Legislature
Mission: carry out non-partisan research on projects assigned by the Legislature or the Institute’s Board of Directors
Senator Karen Fraser Secretary Robin Arnold-Williams, DSHS Representative Fred Jarrett Director Victor Moore, OFMRepresentative Phyllis Kenney Sandra Archibald, University of WashingtonSenator Jeanne Kohl-Welles Andrew Bodman, Western Washington Univ.Representative Skip Priest Robert Rosenman, Washington State Univ.Senator Pam Roach Les Purce, The Evergreen State CollegeRepresentative Helen Sommers Ken Conte, House Office of Program ResearchSenator Mark Schoesler Richard Rodger, Senate Committee Services
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• Class of 2008 Completion and met-standard rates by demographic
characteristics
Results as of summer 2006 (first WASL retake)
Emphasis on reading and writing
• Class of 2005 Graduation rates by WASL performance
Statistical analyses of WASL completion, met-standard, and graduation rates
Use results from the Class of 2005 to project graduation rates for the Class of 2008
Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
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Class of 2008 enters 9th grade
Class of 2008 enters 9th grade
Class of 2008 enters 10th grade
Class of 2008 enters 10th grade
Class of 2008 enters 11th grade
Class of 2008 enters 11th grade
Class of 2008 enters 12th grade
Class of 2008 enters 12th grade
10th-grade WASL
10th-grade WASL
Summer WASL retake
Summer WASL retake
10th-grade WASL
10th-grade WASL
Autumn 2004
Spring2005
Summer2005
Autumn 2005
Spring 2006
Summer 2006
Autumn 2006
Spring 2007
Summer 2007
Autumn 2007
Spring 2008
Summer WASL retake
Summer WASL retake
WASL TimelineWASL TimelineClass of 2008Class of 2008
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Completion Rates in Reading and WritingCompletion Rates in Reading and WritingClass of 2008Class of 2008
(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)
91% 93% 93% 83% 82% 85%
5% 4% 4% 11% 10% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Asian White AfricanAm.
NativeAm.
Hispanic
Completed Reading and
Writing
Completed Reading
Completed Writing
Completed neither
68,878 5,691 51,493 2,989 1,919 6,622
3,862 2,257 379 194 722
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264
Tested in neither
Tested inWritingonly
Tested inReading only
Tested in Reading & Writing
93% 93% 83% 82% 85%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Female Male Not F/Rmeal
F/Rmeal
Not ELL ELL
92% 94% 92%
4% 5%
90% 85% 78%
6% 16%8%4%
Completion Rates in Reading and WritingCompletion Rates in Reading and WritingClass of 2008Class of 2008
(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)
34,517 50,229 66,36734,361 18,649 2,508
3,3552,221 5041,8102,0521,641
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Tested in neither
Tested inWritingonly
Tested inReading only
Tested in Reading & Writing
75% 80% 79% 57% 56% 52%
7%4% 6%
8% 10%10%
5%5% 5%
9% 9%8%
14% 11% 10% 26% 25% 30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Asian White AfricanAmer.
NativeAmer.
Hispanic
Met standard in Reading and Writing
Met standard in Reading
Met standard in Writing
Met standard in neither
Met-Standard Rates in Reading and WritingMet-Standard Rates in Reading and WritingClass of 2008Class of 2008
(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)
56,393 4,853 43,950 2,047 1,078 4,057
9,958 663 5,479 930 472 2,314
5,130267 3,561
293 199770
4,106312 2,626
316 170646
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Met Std in neither
Met Std inWritingonly
Met Std inReading only
Met Std in Reading & Writing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
80% 82% 77%
4% 5%7%
6% 4%5%
10% 9% 11%
24%57%70%
10%
10%
9%9%
10%
5%
25% 55%16%
Female Male Not F/Rmeal
F/Rmeal
Not ELL
ELL
Met-Standard Rates in Reading and WritingMet-Standard Rates in Reading and WritingClass of 2008Class of 2008
(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)
29,842 44,047 55,601 78912,34626,551
3,806 4,555 8,1685,403 1,7876,152
1,603 2,9174,793
2,157 2,2333,788
2,213
337
3,5271,873
318
1,949
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Met Std in neither
Met Std inWritingonly
Met Std inReading only
Met Std in Reading & Writing
Class of 2005Class of 2005
15.4%
90.7%
50.3%
87.6%
42.4%
85.6%
85.1%
37.5%
89.1%
48.3%
78.4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
CompletedDid not complete
Met std RWMDid not meet std RWM
Met std RWDid not meet std RW
Met std RDid not meet std R
Met std WDid not meet std W
Met std MDid not meet std M
What Proportion of Students Who Completed What Proportion of Students Who Completed and Met-Standard on the WASL Graduated? and Met-Standard on the WASL Graduated?
Class of 2005Class of 2005
(20,353)
(56,452)
(44,876)
(38,888)
(38,393)
(52,725)
(24,426)
(26,002)
(41,990)
(42,485)
(28,153)
(60,525)
14,64037.7%
3,128
28,402
19,022
14,409
25,485
22,159
31,539
35,921
36,152
25,076
47,433
10 of 19Graduation rate
49%
59%
67%
61%
78%78%
86%88%85%
92%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Reading Writing Math
High School Graduation Rates by High School Graduation Rates by 10th-Grade WASL Levels10th-Grade WASL Levels
Class of 2005Class of 2005
Le
ve
l 1
Le
ve
l 2
Le
ve
l 3
Le
ve
l 4
Le
ve
l 1
Le
ve
l 2
Le
ve
l 3
Le
ve
l 4
Le
ve
l 2
Le
ve
l 4
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10th-Grade WASL Scores 10th-Grade WASL Scores by Graduation Statusby Graduation Status
Class of 2005Class of 2005
19 160
4
8
12
16
20
24
Writing
414 400389 368340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
Reading Math
Graduated Did not graduate
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Female (vs. Male)
Asian (vs. White)
African American (vs. White)
Hispanic (vs. White)
Native American (vs. White)
Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)
English language learner (vs. not)
Student has at least one disability (vs. none)
Grade point average
WASL Completion
WASL Met Std
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
More LikelyLess Likely
Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: WASL Completion and “Met-Standard” RatesWASL Completion and “Met-Standard” Rates
Reading and Writing, Class of 2005Reading and Writing, Class of 2005
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Grade point average
Met standard in reading
Met standard in writing
Female (vs. Male)
Asian (vs. White)
African American (vs. White)
Hispanic (vs. White)
Native American (vs. White)
Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)
English language learner (vs. not)
Student has at least one disability (vs. none)
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
More LikelyLess Likely
Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: GraduationGraduation
Class of 2005Class of 2005
190 230 270 310 350 390 430 470 510 550 590
WASL scale scores
Pre
dic
ted
gra
du
atio
n r
ate
Math
Reading
400
Predicted Graduation RatesPredicted Graduation Rates
Reading and Math, Class of 2005Reading and Math, Class of 2005 (Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA)(Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA)
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Met StandardNot Met Standard
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50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
WASL writing scores
Pre
dic
ted
gra
du
atio
n r
ate
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Writing
17
Predicted Graduation RatesPredicted Graduation Rates
Writing, Class of 2005Writing, Class of 2005 (Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA)(Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA)
Met StandardNot Met Standard
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• Use data for 10th graders in 2002–03 to predict graduation rates in 2005:
Graduate = f ( GenderRace/EthnicityPovertyLanguageDisabilityGPAWASL scores)
• Apply this prediction equation to data for 10th graders in the class of 2008
Predicted graduation rate: 74.1%
Predicted Graduation RatePredicted Graduation RateClass of 2008Class of 2008
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• In general, the same characteristics are associated with completing the WASL, meeting standard on the WASL, and graduation
• Students who did not complete the WASL were less likely to graduate
• Students who did not meet standard on the WASL were less likely to graduate
• Will graduation rates be affected by making the WASL a graduation requirement?
Summary of FindingsSummary of Findings
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• Final statistical analysis of the WASL Spring 2006
Summer 2006
Spring 2007
• Final review of alternatives to the WASL Multiple measures
Cultural appropriateness
Collection of Evidence implementation
• Evaluation of school-year Promoting Academic Success (PAS)
Forthcoming Institute ReportsForthcoming Institute Reports
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13%
1%5% 5%
1% 2%
24%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
None Mathonly
Writingonly
Readingonly
WritingandMath
ReadingandMath
Readingand
Writing
Allthree
Percentage of Students Meeting WASL Standard Percentage of Students Meeting WASL Standard Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2008Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2008
(as of Summer 2006)(as of Summer 2006)
Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: WASL Completion and “Met-Standard” RatesWASL Completion and “Met-Standard” Rates
Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2005Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2005
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Female (vs. Male)
Asian (vs. White)
African American (vs. White)
Hispanic (vs. White)
Native American (vs. White)
Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)
English language learner (vs. not)
Student has at least one disability (vs. none)
Grade point average
WASL Completion
WASL Met Std
Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood
Grade point average
Met standard in reading
Met standard in writing
Met standard in math
Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: GraduationGraduation
Class of 2005Class of 2005
Female (vs. Male)
Asian (vs. White)
African American (vs. White)
Hispanic (vs. White)
Native American (vs. White)
Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)
English language learner (vs. not)
Student has at least one disability (vs. none)
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood
Met std in reading & writing
Relative Strength of Associations:Relative Strength of Associations: GraduationGraduation
Class of 2005Class of 2005
Female (vs. Male)
Asian (vs. White)
African American (vs. White)
Hispanic (vs. White)
Native American (vs. White)
Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not)
English language learner (vs. not)
Student has at least one disability (vs. none)
Grade point average
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood