Step 3: Demand in the Trade Area Analysis

Walden Consumer Square1740 Walden Ave Cheektowaga, NY 14225 - East Submarket

By: five student team

Aerial View of Subject Site

Source: Google Maps

General Thesis

Strengths Good access to throughways Nearby residential areas increase demand Demand for retail goods projected to increase

Weaknesses Direct Competition nearby competing for

same demand Low Income relative to neighboring

communities Population decreasing

Categorized as a Community Shopping Center (Fanning) Approx. 255,964 sq. ft. of Retail GLA

Major Tenants: Target, Michaels, Pier One Imports,

Payless Shoe Store, PriceRite Supermarket, Office Depot

Walden Consumer Square

Anchor Tenants

Number

Retailer Sq. Ft.

1 Citizens Bank 3,600

2 Office Depot 24,744

3 Petsmart 19,492

4 Pricerite Supermarket 37,581

5 Allcare Dental 7,320

6 Michaels 24,000

7 Pier 1 Imports 9,975

8 Target Stores 119,872

9 Payless Shoe Source 2,874

10 TGI Fridays 7,087Source: Developers Diversified Realty

Bold stores indicate anchor tenants

Major Transportation Routes

Close Proximity to Interstates East – borders I – 90 (Interstate) Galleria

Drive (2 lanes) South – borders Walden Avenue (4 lanes) West – near NY Route 240

Location and Mass Transit

Two bus stops are located along Walden Ave. increasing traffic

North - Extends ~3 miles to NY-Route 33 West – Extends ~4 miles to NY-Route 62 Father West – Along NY-Route 130 to

capture main artery of traffic South – Follows I-90 East – Extends to NY-Route 317 to

capture key residential area

Size and Shape of Trade Area

Subject Site Demand Boundary

TA captures outer Buffalo Demand

5-mile Radius (Exhibit 2.1)

TA captures majority of 5 mile radius

10-mile Radius (Exhibit 2.2)

Demand Area reduced due to water area / distance from SS

5-20 minute Driving Distance Radius Equates to 3-6 mile range

Max. customer base ~321,052 people (Co-star)

Distance from Site (Fanning)

Demographic Trends (2000 – 2015)

Population is decreasing in the 1, 3, 5 mile range (2000-2015) Erie County – (-.0043%) change since

2000 New York – (.03%) increase since 2000

Households are decreasing in the 1, 3, 5 mile range 1 mile - .5% decrease 3 mile - .6% decrease 5 mile - .5% decrease

Demographic Trends (2000 – 2015)

Census Data Avg annual % Census Data Avg annual %Population, 2009 estimate 909,247 19,541,453

(0.043) (0.5) 0.030 0.3 Population, percent change, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009

Erie County New York

2010 Households: 1 Mile Avg annual % 3 Miles Avg annual % 5 Miles Avg annual %2015 Projection 3,113 (0.5) 47,940 (0.6) 133,868 (0.5) 2010 Estimate 3,187 (0.4) 49,423 (0.8) 137,447 (0.6) 2000 Census 3,301 53,422 145,742

City of Cheektowaga facts are available from Census.gov, but only for the year 2000 with no growth projections.Erie County level stats are available from Census.gov with historical growth rates. Of course, Erie County is a broad area.The following stats are taken directly from the "Demographics" tab in CoStar after running a search for Walden Consumer Square, Cheektowaga.

Demographic Trends (2000 – 2015)

Average Household Income decreasing in the 1 and 5 mile range Increasing in 3 mile range oddly

Median Household income increased in 1, 3, 5 mile range

Demographic Trends (2000 – 2015)

Average Household Income 1 Mile Avg annual % 3 Miles Avg annual % 5 Miles Avg annual %2015 $51,199 (0.1) $49,203 0.1 $52,087 (0.7) 2010 $51,525 - $48,853 #DIV/0! $53,818 #DIV/0!2000

Median Household Income 1 MileNominal avg

annual %3 Miles

Nominal avg annual %

5 MilesNominal avg

annual %2015 $51,199 2.5 $49,203 3.6 $52,087 3.5 2010 $45,213 2.6 $41,185 3.1 $43,906 3.1 2000 $35,000 $30,448 $32,276

What Consumers Want

Compare to USA

1 Mile 3 Mile 5 Mile 1 Mile 3 Mile All USA $ All USA %Total Specified Consumer Spending 27,441$ 26,318$ 28,920$ 100.0% 100.0% 25,522$ 100.0%

Apparel: 938$ 907$ 1,004$ 3.4% 3.4% 1,881$ 7.4%Entertainment: 2,574$ 2,401$ 2,656$ 9.4% 9.1% 2,698$ 10.6%Food at Home: 2,294$ 2,229$ 2,447$ 8.4% 8.5% 3,465$ 13.6%

Food Away from Home: 2,259$ 2,180$ 2,404$ 8.2% 8.3% 2,668$ 10.5%Alcoholic Beverages: 440$ 418$ 465$ 1.6% 1.6% 457$ 1.8%

Furniture and Appliance: 2,476$ 2,331$ 2,576$ 9.0% 8.9% 1,797$ 7.0%Transportation and Maintenance: 6,048$ 5,877$ 6,429$ 22.0% 22.3% 8,758$ 34.3%

Health Care: 1,252$ 1,180$ 1,279$ 4.6% 4.5% 2,853$ 11.2%Education and Day Care: 2,170$ 2,006$ 2,234$ 7.9% 7.6% 945$ 3.7%

As % of total200920102010

Annual Consumer Spending

Percentages similar to avg. household spending in United States Exceptions include apparel, healthcare,

and education

Annual Consumer Spending (1-mile)

Transportation and Maintenance account for 22% of Average Household Spending - greatest

Entertainment – 9.4% Furniture and Appliance – 9.% Food at Home – 8.4% Food away from Home – 8.2% Education – 7.9% Health Care – 4.6% Apparel – 3.4% Alcoholic Beverages – 1.6%

Annual Consumer Spending (Projection)

1 Mile 3 Mile 5 Mile 1 Mile 3 Mile 5 MileTotal Specified Consumer Spending 27,441$ 26,318$ 28,920$ 33,310$ 31,535$ 34,334$

Apparel: 938$ 907$ 1,004$ 1,139$ 1,087$ 1,192$ Entertainment: 2,574$ 2,401$ 2,656$ 3,124$ 2,877$ 3,154$ Food at Home: 2,294$ 2,229$ 2,447$ 2,785$ 2,671$ 2,906$

Food Away from Home: 2,259$ 2,180$ 2,404$ 2,742$ 2,612$ 2,854$ Alcoholic Beverages: 440$ 418$ 465$ 534$ 501$ 552$

Furniture and Appliance: 2,476$ 2,331$ 2,576$ 3,006$ 2,793$ 3,058$ Transportation and Maintenance: 6,048$ 5,877$ 6,429$ 7,342$ 7,042$ 7,633$

Health Care: 1,252$ 1,180$ 1,279$ 1,520$ 1,414$ 1,519$ Education and Day Care: 2,170$ 2,006$ 2,234$ 2,634$ 2,404$ 2,652$

2010 2015Annual Consumer Spending

Projected Increased in Consumer Spending

Surrounding Area Income / Taxes

1 Mile 3 Mile 5 Mile 1 Mile 3 Mile 5 MileAverage Household Income 51,525$ 48,853$ 53,818$ 51,199$ 49,203$ 52,087$

Taxes 7,729$ 4,997$ 6,387$ 5,654$ 5,095$ 5,902$ Net Disposable Income 43,796$ 43,856$ 47,431$ 45,545$ 44,108$ 46,185$

Consumer spending less auto, entertainment, medical and education 12,717$ 12,228$ 13,464$ 15,437$ 14,653$ 15,986$ % disposable income spent on retail 29% 28% 28% 34% 33% 35%

Consumer spending at similar shopping centers 5,397$ 5,217$ 5,747$ 6,550$ 6,251$ 6,824$ % disposable income spent at shopping centers 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 15%

2010 2015Household Income and Taxes

Shows Favorable Retail Growth / Decreased Household Income

What Customers Care About

SS offers goods and services that consumers care about PriceRite Supermarket offering food Target offering entertainment and

appliances SS lacks transportation and

maintenance category

Determining Demand (Erie County)

Household Sales Retail Sales - $9,838,147,000 Households – 380,873 Retail Sales per Household - $25,831 44% leakage for Erie County

Per Capita Cheektowaga Population (2000) – 79,988 Cheektowaga Retail Sales (using formula) -

$408,710,997 Buffalo Population – 292,648 Buffalo Retail Sales (2002) - $1,495,330,000

Household and Sales 3.2 (5)

Sales Households Retail Sales per Household1-mile 86,693,000$ 3,126 27,733$ 3-mile 1,287,524,000$ 114,402 11,254$ 5-mile 3,940,643,000$ 323,471 12,182$ TOTAL 5,314,860,000$ 440,999 12,052$

Sales Households Retail Sales per HouseholdErie County (Derived 2007 figure) 9,838,147,000$ 380,873 25,831$ State of NY 178,067,530,000$ 7,056,860 25,233$ TOTAL 187,905,677,000$ 7,437,733 25,264$

Leakage/Surplus1-mile 230%3-mile 93%5-mile 101%Erie County 44%State of NY 45%

Using just the 3-mile consumer

Buffalo retail sales as of 2002 from the US Census at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/09/09003.htmlNY retail sales as of 2002 from the US Census at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/09/09003.html

Sales Per Capita 3.2 (5)

Sales Population Retail Sales per PopulationCheektowaga 408,710,998$ 79,988 5,110$ Buffalo 1,495,330,000$ 292,648 5,110$ TOTAL 1,904,040,998$ 372,636 5,110$

Sales Population Retail Sales per Population1-mile 88,853,000$ 7,345 12,097$ 3-mile 1,294,786,000$ 114,347 11,323$ 5-mile 3,935,558,000$ 321,052 12,258$ TOTAL 5,319,197,000$ 442,744 12,014$

Sales Population Retail Sales per PopulationErie County (Derived 2007 figure) 9,838,147,000$ 950,265 10,353$ State of NY 178,067,530,000$ 18,976,457 9,384$

Buffalo retail sales as of 2002 from the US Census at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36/3611000.htmlNY retail sales as of 2002 from the US Census at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36/3611000.html

Summary

Income per Capita, per Household low

Population Growth low, Sub Market Growth Strong

Retail Sales Growth Increasing

References

Developers Diversified Realty (http://www.ddr.com/listings/default.aspx?pn=20817)

Erie County Department of Real Property Tax Services New York State Department of Transportation Traffic Data Viewer (

http://gis.dot.ny.gov/tdv/) Showcase.com, leasing information provided by Developers Diversified Realty (

http://www.showcase.com/property/1740-Walden-Avenue/Cheektowaga/New-York/1174165)

Town of Cheektowaga, New York(http://www.tocny.org/Home.aspx)

Buffalo retail sales as of 2002 from the US Census at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/09/09003.html

NY retail sales as of 2002 from the US Census at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/09/09003.html

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36000.html http://wwww.erie.gov/erie/ Their source is "Consumer Expenditures" from US BLS, April 2009.http://www.visualeconomics.com/how-the-average-us-consumer-spends-their-paycheck/ http://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm