wall street strategies · 2020. 10. 23. · wall street strategies wall street strategies-...

WALL STREET STRATEGIES Wall Street Strategies- providing independent stock market research since 1991 through a balanced

approach to investing and trading

October

2020

Payne’s Perspective Election 2020 Special Report

There is no doubt a Trump victory, coupled with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, would

be the absolute best-case scenario for the stock market. But there are so many additional factors that

influence the economy and market in addition to the political party and ideology in the White House.

Knowing and understanding these exogenous inputs will be an important part of your decision-making

process. There is even going to be a psychological aspect of the market that probably benefits either

candidate, but for different reasons.

Most market participants expect the market to continue its love affair with President Trump that was

interrupted momentarily by the coronavirus crisis. Conversely, a President Biden win would benefit from

low expectations that could see the Street cheering smaller accomplishments as investors did during

and after the Great Recession.

Green Shoots

I cannot tell you how often markets rallied on news that was awful in the grand, and not-so-grand,

scheme of things. Biden would benefit from a friendly media that would amplify any modicum of hope

into grander achievements. If millions of Americans drop out of the labor force, the focus would be on

the U-3 unemployment rate, which would provide misleading signs of progress.

To be fair, the market has done some of that on its own without the financial media’s help this summer

and fall because we were bracing for the absolute worst; as bad as it got, America did not enter into the

next Great Depression.

On the contrary, we have seen a housing boom, manufacturing rebound, steady consumer power, and a

V-shaped bound in the majority of economic metrics. The stock market rally in April, May, and June,

which the financial media questioned and dissed, was only foretelling of an economic rebound.

That’s something the stock market has done for a couple of centuries. It’s a harbinger of things to come,

nudged minute to minute by a number of factors, including non-financial ones. In the end, it predicts

where the nation is headed, and it has a pretty good track record. The only time the market fails as a

proxy for the future is during periods of wild exuberance.)

We saw this in 2000 and again in 2007 when the S&P 500 hit an all-time high weeks before the U.S.

economy slipped into the Great Recession. Note that just because the market is in rally mode, it’s not

automatically irrationally exuberant. The general public is miles away from going bananas over the stock

market.

Election & Stock Market

Election Outcome Scenarios and the Stock Market

Trump Wins GOP majority in Senate Best Case – Market Soar

Trump Wins Dem majority in Senate Positive – Upward Bias

Biden Wins GOP majority in Senate Negative – Market Stalls

Biden Wins Dem majority in Senate Worst Case – Downward Bias

If President Trump wins and the GOP keeps the Senate, we can look for an even more nuanced effort to

eliminate harmful regulations that are either redundant or do little in the way of protecting, yet prohibit

investments and limit other freedoms that are the cornerstone of the nation’s foundation.

The ethos of our nation and why it became preeminent in such a short period against nations that had

been around for centuries is based on individual freedoms. Too much government intervention and

regulation crowd out those freedoms and often starves them of capital. This is made even worse when

the government decides to pick winners and losers among American industries.

A Trump presidency and Democrat Senate would create a stalemate that Wall Street has historically

loved. It would mean no new taxes and no new regulations. It might also mean a big stimulus bill and

infrastructure effort, which Wall Street would love.

A Biden victory with a GOP Senate would check a lot of his plans, although executive orders would still

be an option. The worst-case scenario is a Biden win and Democrats take the Senate and control the

House of Representatives. Even this scenario would be nuanced, and there is no doubt in my mind

intraparty struggles would initially stall the Biden agenda.

Later, it would hijack the agenda with the inclusion of elements:

• Green New Deal

• Higher Taxes

• Universal Basic Income

• Pursuing prosecution of Donald Trump and former administration officials

• Less funding for local law enforcement

• More limited role of corporations and corporate officers in administration and government

Having shared my thoughts above, I must warn everyone not to be circumspect when it comes to the

stock market. I spent eight years imploring investors to take advantage of the most oversold market in

history when President Obama entered office. His election did nothing to stem the panic.

Between election day and his inauguration, the S&P had taken a drubbing. That selling continued to the

early part of March 2009 when the market reached a bottom. Stocks came back faster than the

economy, which plodded through its worst post-recession recovery ever. Fortunes were made in the

stock market, but too many of my conservative friends missed the boat.

Taking Good Times for Granted

There are so many intriguing curiosities at the crossroads of the economy and stock market. The

economy is coming on strong once again after putting on a performance most experts said was not even

possible. This was especially true regarding the job creation that occurred along with increased labor

participation; resulting in lower unemployment rates that truly reflected shared prosperity.

That changed this year because the entire nation shut down, and large swathes of the U.S. continue to

be shut down.

Ironically, President Trump has been victimized by his success in navigating the U.S. economy. In a

recent Gallup survey, only 9% of respondents mentioned the economy as the most important problem.

Economic Issues Cited as Most Important Problem, in Presidential Reelection Years August/September 2020 reading vs. final pre-election readings in prior reelection years

Mentions of Economy

Trump (2020 Aug & Sep) 9%

Obama (2012 Oct) 72%

G.W. Bush (2004 Oct) 40%

Clinton (1996 Jul) 40%

G.H.W. Bush 69%

It’s Been a Great Time, But…

It remains to be seen if people will vote with their pocketbooks and wallets as they normally do in every

election, or will other factors and issues guide the hands of voters as they pull that lever. I was surprised

President Obama was reelected with his economic track record. A similar level of worry about the

economy made G.H.W. Bush a one-term president.

There is no doubt about the devastation from closing down the entire country, a decision that is unlikely

to ever happen again in this country; -although, I worry about comments made on the campaign trail.

More on that later in this report. Let’s continue to examine this strange phenomenon of just how well

people feel they are doing.

Remember it is rare that polls ask people how they are doing in their personal economy. However, many

answered that it has been remarkably positive for them.

Back in February, Gallup posed this question: Would you say you and your family are better off now

than you were a year ago, or are you financially worse off?

• Better off: 59%

• Worse off: 20%

The better-off percentage was the highest ever, and then the coronavirus happened. So, when Gallup

asked folks last month if they were better or worse off now than four years ago, we would have

expected the tables to be reversed. However, 56% of the participants feel that they are better off, which

is by far the largest margin going back to 1984.

Blue-Collar Wages & Manufacturing Jobs

There are a lot of voting niches that could determine the election, but few are as coveted as the

American Blue-Collar worker. These workers put candidate Trump over the top in 2016, and if he is to

win again, it will be these folks that make it happen.

They are going to have a lot to think about because not only did their jobs come back before Covid-19,

but their wages soared, and it’s hard to dispute it was Trump’s policies and his tax cuts.

The Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) was signed into law on December 19, 2017, and most of the

changes went into effect on Jan 1, 2018, which had an instant positive impact on blue-collar jobs and

wages. And it only got better.

Average monthly change:

• 2008: +3.76%

• 2016: +2.49%

• 2017: +2.35%

• 2018: +2.97%

• 2019: +3.55%

• 2020: +4.88%

The current data is a little more skewed, but I like the rotation from lowest-paying leisure and retail into

warehouse and storage, although I am not sure how much that will impact folks once they step inside

the voting booth.

Non-Economy Voting Influence

There is a chance that the 2020 election might boil down to non-economic issues. In another Gallup

survey, a plurality of voters said they agreed with President Trump on the issues but felt Joe Biden had

presidential qualities. This presents a difficult internal conflict for many voters.

Covid-19 & Voters

Many election experts are saying President Trump faces his tallest hurdle when it comes to his handling

of Covid-19. Interestingly, as headlines blare that U.S. cases are increasing, few will acknowledge that

Europe has zoomed ahead of America. Moreover, positive tests and fatality rates are rapidly declining.

• On August 18, 7.67% of 71.2 million Americans tested were positive; the fatality rate was 3.00%.

• On October 16, 6.53% of 122.7 million Americans tested were positive with a fatality rate of

2.63%.

1. USA Facts & 2. The COVID Tracking Project.

2.60%

2.65%

2.70%

2.75%

2.80%

2.85%

2.90%

2.95%

3.00%

3.05%

6.40%6.60%6.80%7.00%7.20%7.40%7.60%7.80%

Fata

lity

Rat

e

Positive Test Rate

Covid19 TrendsAugust 18th to October 16th

Stock Market & Economy Election Predictors

When it comes to the economy, the ability of an incumbent candidate or party to avoid recession within

two years of the election is almost foolproof. Only Calvin Coolidge won despite a recession within two

years of the election. He was a Republican and ran on a pro-business platform.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) trends have a large impact on election outcomes, but this year will

be more difficult to read and model, considering the sharp drop in the spring and summer declines.

The Atlanta Fed models the third-quarter GDP at 35.2%, which would be a mind-boggling achievement

that all Americans should take a bow and celebrate. There was no doubt the economy would rebound

but this print will be one for the record books.

There were very powerful and distinguished economists calling for a multiyear depression this past

spring.

The Atlanta Fed’s initial modeling figured on an 11.9% growth in the economy. Other major Wall Street

firms have also increased their assumption for third-quarter growth.

It will be major news, although I’m sure it will be downplayed. I wonder if there will be more time spent

on the number or guessing how much the next quarter will not be as powerful. It’s too bad because

Americans deserve to hear good news and to be inspired from time to time.

31-Jul Initial nowcast 11.9

28-Aug GDP, Personal income and outlays 28.9

22-Sep Existing-home sales 32.0

24-Sep New-home sales 31.9

25-Sep Advance durable manufacturing 32.0

29-Sep Advance Economic Indicators 33.8

1-Oct Personal income, ISM Man & Construction spending 34.6

2-Oct Light vehicle sales, Employment situation 35.4

5-Oct ISM Nonmanufacturing Index 35.4

6-Oct International Trade 35.3

9-Oct Wholesale trade 35.2

13-Oct Consumer Price Index, Monthly Treasury Statement 35.2

14-Oct Producer Price Index 35.2

15-Oct Import/Export Prices 35.2

16-Oct Retail Trade, Industrial Production 35.2

Much has been made of the stock market’s performance and the election outcome based on the final

three months into the election. It’s quite simple, - if the market is higher, the incumbent wins; if the

market is down, the incumbent loses. It has a pretty good track record:

• 87% correctly predicted the winner since 1928

• 100% correctly predicted the winner since 1984

LPL Research and Bloomberg

It marks the year of an election and the outcome. Over the past 60 years, whenever the S&P 500 is down in an election year, the incumbent party loses, but even when the S&P 500 gain is less than 10%, the incumbent party fails to hold the White House. The lone exception to this was 1980 when the stock market rallied 25.8% in Jimmy Carter's last year in office, but he lost to Ronald Reagan.

-2.97%

12.97%7.66%

15.63%19.15%

25.77%

1.40%

12.40%

4.46%

20.26%

-10.14%

8.99%

-38.49%

13.41%9.54%

-50.00%

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017

S&P 500 & Election Outcome

Conclusion

President Trump has tailwinds from economic and stock market momentum, but the public perception

of his handling of Covid-19 has a serious headwind. If this were a typical election or one where the

incumbent received more favorable media coverage, I would say it would be a walk in the park.

No matter which candidate wins, we have a bitterly divided nation that could be manipulated into a

malaise that no amount of stimulus could cure or change. I fear policies aimed to seize on a division

more than anything else.

Divided We Fall

I guess we have come a long way from baseball, hot dogs, and apple pie as the American way. Only a

tiny fraction of Americans believes folks on the other side of the political aisle share their values. I think,

in reality, we share more than we think, but it’s a worrisome number. This should put more pressure on

an American president to try to lift the economy and to unite the nation rather than pull that thread of

dissent. We never want to see what happens if this American experiment unravels.

Of course, I know there is nothing new under the sun, and the nation has gone through this much angst

and more (Civil War, anyone?). But what makes this more problematic is we have a rival breathing

down our throats with hooks into our nation.

China has been protected by U.S. politicians, universities, and corporations. Right now, it has Hollywood

churning out movies with subtle but undeniable messages that challenge our foundation (I checked out

John Brown starring Ethan Hawke, and on more than one occasion, the dialogue equated slavery with

the U.S. Constitution) or portray China in a positive light (The Laundromat (2019)).

Now is not the time to become so disdainful that it begins to erode the things that made us the greatest

nation in the world in a very short period. We must keep growing the nation and expand opportunities

for full participation, as it is the only way to truly bring others out of poverty.

Any scheme that looks to right the wrongs of yesterday through redistribution and punitive policies that

punishes the innocent will backfire badly. The poor will not become richer even if there are repatriation

checks to large swathes of the nation. Ultimately, without a strong economy, that money will find its

way back to wealthier folks that own businesses.

Not only will they get the cash, but their stock portfolio will swell as well.

There is no such thing as ‘trickle-down’ because our consumer nation makes the United States a ‘trickle-

up’ economy. (China began minting billionaires as its population moved from the world’s greatest savers

to the world’s greatest consumers of luxury items.)

In short, America cannot afford the civil strife to morph into something sinister. It’s fine for competing

ideologies to press their respective cases - after all, Americans like to be sold (all elections are a sales

competition). But forcing ideology and canceling opposing thoughts, even limiting the ability to earn a

living, will move the needle toward civil disaster.

Incivility, Not Civil War

Each day, it’s not hard to find a headline and article warning of potential civil war over the outcome of

the election.

ON THE EDGE America ‘on the brink of civil war’ as HALF the country ‘expect violence’ over election day ‘fraud’

I must admit I liked it better when all these kinds of articles were about whiny celebrities threatening to

leave the United States if a Republican won. There is so much streaming media content being created;

there is too much money to leave no matter who is in the White House.

I do not buy there will be excessive violence on election night, even during a potentially contested

outcome. I do believe, however, the same folks that have ransacked American cities during the Summer

of Love would take advantage, as their aim has always been to anarchy.

That being said, it is a tough period of polarization, and I expect incivility to continue to dominate.

I believe a Trump victory would only increase the media’s animosity, and that would make every single

day an exhausting litany of negativity.

I believe a Biden victory would calm the media, but he would have to resist calls to go after Donald

Trump and Trump officials the way Barack Obama did when Nancy Pelosi and others insisted on going

after members of President Bush’s administration.

Inherit the Wind (and winning hand)

• Economic Momentum: Lots of V-Shaped recoveries, including those on this page:

Manufacturing New Orders

Home Ownership

Retail Sales

• Robust Consumer

There have been several analyses on what Americans did with their $1,200 to $2,400 stimulus checks,

and all discovered the same trends. Here is the most recent analysis from the New York Federal Reserve:

How Have Households Used Their Stimulus Payments and How Would They Spend the Next One?

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/10/how-have-households-used-their-stimulus-

payments-and-how-would-they-spend-the-next.html

An important question in evaluating how much this part of the CARES Act stimulated the economy

concerns what share of these payments households used for consumption—what economists call the

marginal propensity to consume (MPC).

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/10/how-have-households-used-their-stimulus-payments-and-how-would-they-spend-the-next.htmlhttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/10/how-have-households-used-their-stimulus-payments-and-how-would-they-spend-the-next.html

I love the fact consumers paid down debt and saved a lot of the CAREs Act money. That’s an amazing dry

powder that will power the economy as consumer confidence improves.

Healthier Consumer

Household debt continues to plunge - and it’s not only credit card debt, which is at its lowest point since

2017 - but all consumer debt. The Federal Reserve has two ways of measuring household debt:

Debt Service Ratio

This includes consumers and mortgage debt. At the end of the second quarter (2Q20), it stood at 8.69%

on disposable personal income. That is the lowest ever since this series began in 1980.

• Mortgage 3.72% (the lowest on record)

• Consumer 4.97% (lowest since fourth-quarter 2012 (4Q12)

Financial Obligation Ratio

It stood at 13.64% of disposable personal income at the end of the second-quarter 2020 (2Q20), down

from 15.03% in the first quarter. It’s now at the lowest point on record.

• Lots of Cash on Sidelines

U.S. households saw their savings rate surge to 33.6% in April, which equated to $6.38 trillion in the

bank. That mind-boggling sum has come down since then. But at the last read in August, the savings rate

was 14.1%, equal to $2.43 trillion. That’s a lot of cash for the winner in November to try to unlock.

The stimulus saga could drag on beyond the election or be resolved before - but conventional wisdom holds it will happen at some point, and it would be a bonanza. According to Evercore ISI Research, a $2.0 trillion deal would add 420 basis points (bps) to the GDP and $8.00 to the S&P 500 earnings.

$1.27 $1.39

$2.13

$6.38

$4.43

$3.32 $3.16

$2.43

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

US Personal SavingsTrillion USD

• Entrepreneurial Spirit

Talk about innate American resolve! The surge in business applications during the middle of a health

and economic crisis speaks volumes about our indomitable spirit.

Many great American businesses started during recessions, including:

• (GE) General Electric 1892

• (GM) General Motors 1908

• (IBM) International Business Machines 1911

• (DIS) Disney 1929

• (TSE: S) Traders Joe’s 1958

• (FDX) FedEx 1971

There is a wave of entrepreneurship in 2020, but it is an untold story that should give everyone hope.

There is no doubt some of this is what is known as survivalist entrepreneurship, but it’s an option. In the

years, even decades to come, many of these nascent startups will become household names.

How to Invest

The good news is history has been kind to investors in the first year of new presidential terms. Going

back to 1984, the market has been higher every first year in a new term, except in 2001. Of course, that

was a very difficult year where the new president inherited a stock market bubble that was imploding,

and the damage from the attacks on September 11th.

Election Year Winning Party Market Change Next Year

1984 GOP +26.3%

1988 GOP +27.2%

1992 Dem +7.1%

1996 Dem +31.0%

2000 GOP -13.4%

2004 GOP +3.0%

2008 Dem +23.5%

2012 Dem +29.6%

2016 GOP +19.4%

Stocks That Win Under Either Candidate

I have already laid out all the momentum the economy has going into 2021, and the only thing needed is

a spark that will generate enough Consumer Confidence to unleash all the positive possibilities. The

good news is Consumer Confidence and Sentiment are on the rise, and one would naturally assume a

series of vaccine approvals would engender a tidal wave of optimism.

Consumer Sentiment

Industrial Sector (XLI)

The S&P Industrial (XLI) sector has all the momentum in the past three months, and it appears the stars

are aligned for sustained growth.

Industrial & S&P 500

Blue-Collar Workers

In my special 2016 Election report, I featured Cintas (CTAS) as a stock that would win under a Trump

presidency. The shares were changing hands at $108.00 on November 7, 2016, and closed at $348.00 on

October 16, 2020. I continue to see this stock as a winner. I think it would thrive under a Republican or

Democratic administration, although more with the former.

Electric Trucks

In August 1912, the Curtis Publishing Company of Philadelphia purchased the first 10 of what would

eventually become a fleet of 22 C-T electric trucks from The Commercial Truck Co. That’s right - there is

nothing new under the sun, and now electric trucks are set to come rumbling back onto our roads.

I think the Workhorse Group (WKHS) will be a big winner in the second incarnation. Vice President

Pence has been to the Workhorse plant in Ohio, and a second Trump administration would provide

support in a second term. These trucks would also be winners under a Biden administration, and the

Greenies would be happy.

Retailers

There is cash out there. Once it starts to flow, there will be upscale retail winners like Louis Vuitton

(LVMH) - and the ubiquitous Amazon (AMZN) must be a part of every portfolio, but I continue to like the

notion of brick-and-mortar names. Dollar General (DG) was an essential retail winner, but the company

is not content with its place in the world and has begun a more upscale effort.

Stock Winners Under Trump Administration

Energy (XLE)

This is about the stereotype that big oil should do well under a Republican story, but this is the story of

survival. Crude oil and crude oil companies are under attack from climate change proponents, being

shunned by Wall Street, and hurting from Covid-19.

Energy & S&P 500

Permian Basin

I continue to like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), which could be a takeover candidate in 2021.

However, I do not think there is a sense of urgency to be there immediately, but once West Texas

Intermediate (WTI) closes above $45.00.

Semiconductors

I love Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as long-term holds, but the name with the

most momentum is Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), which is making money hand over fist as a top Apple

(AAPL) supplier. The company has pricing power and was smart enough to announce a $12.0 billion deal

to build a mega-factory scheduled to open in 2024.

Farm Economy

Don’t look now, but soybean prices are surging, and China is establishing records for grain purchases.

Farm incomes have been steady and even slightly better than the year before President Trump came

into office.

I like John Deere (DE) as a way to gain exposure to a resurgence in the farm equipment space. And while

Tractor Supply (TSCO) does not sell tractors, it’s a fantastic proxy for heartland retail.

Stocks to Own Under a Biden Administration

Solar

Everyone is looking at this industry to be a big winner under a Biden administration. In addition to solar

panels, hydrogen fuel cells are expected to be big winners as well (only 30 years after the initial hype

phase) and that means Plug Power (PLUG).

Infrastructure Winner

I’ll take the bait and agree there could be a giant infrastructure spending plan under a Biden

administration, which would mean Vulcan Materials (VMC) and United Rentals (URI) would be big

winners.

Biggest Biden Winner

NextEra Energy (NEE) has deep roots with Joe Biden as part of its relationship with the Obama

administration, where company CEO Lewis “Lew” Hay was a member of Obama’s Council on Jobs and

Competitiveness. Under President Obama, billions of dollars were poured into clean energy schemes

either as tax credits, direct spending, grants, and investments.

Even the rare instance of cutting regulations was aimed at helping their clean energy agenda.

The White House

Office of the Press Secretary

July 11, 2011

Memorandum--Regulation and Independent Regulatory Agencies

America's free market is the greatest force for prosperity the world has ever known. It is the key to our

global leadership and the success of our people. But throughout our history, one of the reasons it has

worked is that we have sought a proper balance -- a balance that promotes economic growth,

innovation, competitiveness, and job creation while protecting the health, safety, and security of the

American people.

Here’s a statement by the CEO of NextEra Energy on President Obama's memorandum regarding

regulation and independent regulatory agencies:

NextEra Energy Chairman and CEO Lew Hay, a member of President Barack Obama’s Council on Jobs and

Competitiveness, issued the following statement on the memorandum issued today by the President

regarding regulation and independent regulatory agencies:

"We applaud the President for taking prompt action on an item flagged by his Council on Jobs and

Competitiveness in the early course of our work. Improving the environment for job creation will require

action on many fronts, and this is a productive step.

“Greater focus on cost-benefit analysis, looking at alternative ways of meeting the aims of regulation,

and deploying regulatory frameworks that encourage constructive compliance are all important.

The Spigots that Grew NextEra

NextEra (NEE) began as Florida Power & Light in 1925, and for the most part, was satisfied to be a local

power provider.

But during the Obama presidency, the company made a series of deals to morph into a 21st century

player with grand ambitions.

American taxpayers have played a major role in the company’s march from a sleepy local energy

concern into a big player in the clean energy industry.

Subsidy Tracker Parent Company Summary

Parent Company Name: NextEra Energy

Ownership Structure: publicly traded (ticker symbol NEE)

Headquartered in: Florida

Major Industry: utilities and power generation

Specific Industry: utilities

Subsidy Summary Subsidy Value Number of

Awards

State/Local $396,878,669 20

Federal (grants and allocated tax credits) $2,300,390,683 31

TOTAL $2,697,269,352 51

Loan / Bailout Summary Total Face

Value Number of

Awards

State/Local loans, bond financing and venture capital $0 0

Federal loans, loan guarantees and bailout assistance (not

including repayments) $3,113,600,000 4

TOTAL $3,113,600,000 4

Individual Subsidy Records:

Click on the company name for more information on each subsidy award.

Download results as or XML

Company Year Subsidy Value Type of Subsidy

1. Genesis Solar, LLC 2014 $306,240,000 federal grant

2. FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY 2010 $200,000,000 federal grant

3. Desert Sunlight 300 2015 $198,104,953 federal grant

4. Desert Sunlight 250 2015 $162,363,054 federal grant

5. FPL Energy Illinois Wind, LLC 2010 $137,256,969 federal grant

6. Florida Power & Light Company 2011 $123,767,270 federal grant

7. NEXTERA ENERGY CAPITAL HOLDINGS INC 2015 $119,334,074 tax credit/rebate


9. North Sky River Energy, LLC 2013 $100,923,890 federal grant

10. Northern Colorado Wind Energy, LLC 2009 $99,900,326 federal grant

11. White Oak Energy, LLC 2011 $98,706,750 federal grant

12. Garden Wind, LLC 2010 $82,016,590 federal grant

13. Tuscola Bay Wind, LLC 2013 $68,668,791 federal grant

14. Florida Power & Light Company 2010 $62,371,777 federal grant

15. Elk City II Wind, LLC 2011 $61,880,803 federal grant


17. Red Mesa Wind, LLC 2011 $58,412,982 federal grant

18. Baldwin Wind, LLC 2011 $55,979,118 federal grant

19. Vasco Winds, LLC 2012 $54,969,957 federal grant

20. FPL Energy Stateline II, Inc 2010 $54,857,251 federal grant

21. Day County Wind, LLC 2010 $54,518,743 federal grant

22. Minco Wind, LLC 2011 $54,066,194 federal grant

23. Perrin Ranch Wind, LLC 2012 $51,684,962 federal grant

24. Elk City Wind 2010 $50,248,277 federal grant

25. NextEra Energy Montezuma II Wind, LLC 2012 $50,101,558 federal grant

https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&detail=export_xmlhttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=company&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=sub_year&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=subsidy_type&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-genesis-solar-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-florida-power-and-light-companyhttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-desert-sunlight-300https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-desert-sunlight-250https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-fpl-energy-illinois-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-florida-power-and-light-company-2https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ok-nextera-energy-capital-holdings-inc-1https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ok-nextera-energy-capital-holdings-inc-0https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-north-sky-river-energy-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-northern-colorado-wind-energy-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-white-oak-energy-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-garden-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-tuscola-bay-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-florida-power-and-light-company-1https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-elk-city-ii-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ok-nextera-energy-capital-holdings-inchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-red-mesa-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-baldwin-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-vasco-winds-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-fpl-energy-stateline-ii-inchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-day-county-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-minco-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-perrin-ranch-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-elk-city-windhttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-nextera-energy-montezuma-ii-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&detail=export_csvhttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&sort=asc


26. Crystal Lake Wind III, LLC 2010 $36,072,814 federal grant

27. FPL Energy Horse Hollow Wind GP LLC 2007 $35,334,670 property tax abatement

28. Ashtabula Wind III, LLC 2011 $31,437,330 federal grant

29. FPL Energy Montezuma Wind, LLC 2011 $22,743,824 federal grant

30. Northern Colorado Wind Holdings, LLC $14,753,704 tax credit/rebate

31. FPL Energy Horse Hollow Wind GP LLC 2007 $12,288,510 property tax abatement

32. FPL Energy Maine Hydro, LLC 2012 $11,566,467 federal grant

33. Northern Colorado Wind Holdings, LLC 2016 $10,569,359 tax credit/rebate

34. FPL ENERGY STATELINE II, INC 2012 $10,000,000 tax credit/rebate



37. FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY 2010 $5,000,000 federal grant

38. Crystal Lake Wind II, LLC 2010 $4,195,533 federal grant

39. NEXTERA ENERGY EQUITY PARTNERS LP 2015 $3,241,423 tax credit/rebate

40. NEXTERA ENERGY EQUITY PARTNERS, LP 2015 $3,241,422 tax credit/rebate

41. NEXTERA ENERGY OPERATING PARTNERS, LP 2015 $3,241,422 tax credit/rebate

42. NextEra Energy Resources LLC 2012 $1,356,382 property tax abatement

43. SEC BESD Solar One, LLC 2012 $1,110,727 federal grant

44. NextEra Energy 2016 $1,076,284 property tax abatement

45. FPL Energy Illinois Wind, LLC 2013 $823,085 tax credit/rebate

46. FPL Energy Illinois Wind, LLC 2010 $791,805 tax credit/rebate

47. FPL Energy Green Power Wind, LLC 2011 $777,827 federal grant

48. NextEra Energy Capital Holdings, Inc. 2017 $606,459 tax credit/rebate

49. FPL Energy Cabazon Wind, LLC 2012 $445,946 federal grant

50. FPL Energy LLC (via city of Story City) 2008 $300,000 infrastructure assistance

51. FPL Energy Operating Services, Inc. 2009 $217,133 training reimbursement

52. Genesis Solar, LLC 2011 federal loan or loan guarantee

53. DESERT SUNLIGHT 300, LLC 2011 federal loan or loan guarantee


https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=company&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=sub_year&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=subsidy_type&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-crystal-lake-wind-iii-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/tx-fpl-energy-horse-hollow-wind-gp-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-ashtabula-wind-iii-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-fpl-energy-montezuma-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/co-northern-colorado-wind-holdings-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/tx-fpl-energy-horse-hollow-wind-gp-llc-0https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-fpl-energy-maine-hydro-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/co-northern-colorado-wind-holdings-llc-2https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/or-fpl-energy-stateline-ii-inchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/co-northern-colorado-wind-holdings-llc-0https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/co-northern-colorado-wind-holdings-llc-1https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-florida-power-and-light-company-0https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-crystal-lake-wind-ii-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ok-nextera-energy-equity-partners-lphttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ok-nextera-energy-equity-partners-lp-0https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ok-nextera-energy-operating-partners-lphttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/or-nextera-energy-resources-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-sec-besd-solar-one-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ok-nextera-energyhttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/il-fpl-energy-illinois-wind-llc-1https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/il-fpl-energy-illinois-wind-llc-0https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-fpl-energy-green-power-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/co-nextera-energy-capital-holdings-inchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-fpl-energy-cabazon-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ia-fpl-energy-llc-via-city-of-story-cityhttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/ia-fpl-energy-operating-services-inchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-genesis-solar-llc-0https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-desert-sunlight-300-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-desert-sunlight-300-llc-https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&sort=asc



56. FPL Energy Illinois Wind, LLC 2009 undisclosed tax credit/rebate

57. FPL Energy Upton Wind I LLC 2008 undisclosed property tax abatement

58. NextEra Energy Resource 2010 undisclosed training reimbursement

59. FPL Energy Upton Wind I, LP (ASSIGNED on 12/22/00 from Upton Wind LP) 2009 undisclosed tax credit/rebate

60. FPL Energy Callahan Wind LP & Boulevard Associates LLC (No RZ Info on File) 2009 undisclosed tax credit/rebate

61. NextEra Energy Inc & Subs 2010 undisclosed tax credit/rebate

NextEra (NEE) Takes Off

NextEra was a $50.00 stock when President Obama was inaugurated. Today, shares change hands at

$305, and the company sports a market greater than Exxon Mobil (XOM).

Under Joe Biden, I think the stock could rally 200% in four years.

NEE

Of course, there are reasons for investors to fear a Biden presidency, especially if he is pushed further

left of his campaign promises.

https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=company&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=sub_year&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&order=subsidy_type&sort=aschttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/us-desert-sunlight-250-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/il-fpl-energy-illinois-wind-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/tx-fpl-energy-upton-wind-i-llchttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/tx-nextera-energy-resourcehttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/tx-fpl-energy-upton-wind-i-lp-assigned-on-1https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/tx-fpl-energy-callahan-wind-lp-and-boulevhttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker/wv-nextera-energy-inc-and-subshttps://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=nextera-energy&sort=asc

Conclusion

The first year of a Biden Presidency would benefit from all the momentum mentioned above, and it

would take some time to implement the more onerous aspects of his tax policies. Moreover, I suspect

there are folks around the former VP that understand the extra risk of hiking taxes when so many

people are still trying to recover from the pandemic crisis.

Biden has talked about the K-shaped recovery, which is very much overstated as 147,000,000 people out

of a labor force of 160,000,000 are employed.

Yes, some folks are in terrible straits as many businesses are gone forever. More than four million have

left the labor force, and millions more that are still working depend on wealthy consumers to spend

money.

Do Not Panic

Please do not panic, even if there is a period of market turmoil, because you will regret it. I suspect we

would be in more cash than usual on the eve of the election, and make further adjustments after, but

there are going to be amazing winners no matter which candidate is victorious.

We. Are. Going. To. Win.

Founder, CEO, & Principal Analyst Wall Street Strategies

WWW.WSTREET.COM

Disclaimer: All investment entails inherent risk. Wall Street Strategies' research seeks to assist investors in determining when to buy and when to sell to attempt to maximize profits or minimize

losses. All final investment decisions are yours and as a result you could make or lose money. Wall Street Strategies, its employees and/or its affiliates and family members may from time to

time take positions in the open market or otherwise with respect to the securities discussed. Wall Street Strategies, its employees and/or affiliates do not have stock ownership equal to or

greater than 1% of the outstanding stock of the covered company nor does any employee of Wall Street Strategies sit on the Board of Directors of any covered company. Wall Street Strategies

is not a broker/dealer, and the firm does not underwrite securities, manage assets or perform investment banking activities. The statements made herein include information obtained from

sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The statements made herein contain general information

and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security.

851 Winthrop – Teaneck, NJ 07666 - Phone 212.514.9500

k If you tax and punish

this part of the K the

other part will suffer

mightily.
http://www.wstreet.com/

wall street strategies · 2020. 10. 23. · wall street strategies wall street strategies-...

Documents