walter e. baethgen (iri columbia university-inia, uruguay) agustin gimenez (inia, uruguay)
DESCRIPTION
Observed changes in climatic variables relevant for agricultural production during 1930-2000 in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay (AIACC Project No. LA27). Walter E. Baethgen (IRI Columbia University-INIA, Uruguay) Agustin Gimenez (INIA, Uruguay) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Observed changes in climatic variables relevant for
agricultural production during 1930-2000 in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay
(AIACC Project No. LA27)
Walter E. Baethgen (IRI Columbia University-INIA, Uruguay)
Agustin Gimenez (INIA, Uruguay)
Graciela Magrin (INTA-Argentina)
Maria I. Travasso (INTA-Argentina)
Gilberto Cunha (EMBRAPA, Brasil)
Mauricio Fernandes (EMBRAPA, Brasil)
Objectives
Explore changes in the last 70-100 years observed in climate variables that are relevant for agricultural production
Establish the basis for one of the methods used inour project to create climate change scenarios:project changes observed in the last 70-100 yearsto the next 10-20 years using a weather generator(G. Magrin’s presentation)
MethodsLinear regression of mean trimester rainfall and temperatures for the entire available period (1930 – 2000)Stat significance using parametric and non-parametric (Kendall) tests
Plot slopes using a contouring and surface mapping program (Surfer)to study spatial distribution of changes
Expected Result
Annual mean changes of the trimester means for Rainfall, T Max, T Min in the entire period (1930 - 2000)
Remaining Question:
Were changes uniform throughout the entire period?Time
Methods (2)
Compare rainfall and temperature means for different periods:
10-year periods: 1930-40, 1940-50, …, 1990-2000
20-year periods: 1930-50, 1940-60, …, 1980-2000
30-year periods: 1930-1960 vs 1970-2000
RESULTS
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Linear regression Analysis
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Linear regression Analysis
Significant Slopes(P<0.10)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)
Summary by Trimester
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Comparing two Periods:
1930-1960 vs 1970-2000
Changes in Temperatures
Mean monthly T MaxMean monthly T Min
Regression Analysis
JFM
T Min T Min
MJJ
JFM JJA
T Max T Max
Comparing two Periods:
1930-1960 vs 1970-2000
T Max: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000(Summer 1931-1960)
T Max: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000(Summer 1970-2000)
T Min: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000(Winter 1931-1960)
T Min: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000(Winter 1970-2000)
T Min: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000(Summer 1931-1960)
T Min: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000(Summer 1970-2000)
Relevance for
Agricultural Production:
Frost Regime
Changes in dates of first and last frosts
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Day of the year
First-UY
Last-UY
First-AR
Last-AR
7 Jun 14 Jun
14 Sep
21 Aug
17 Apr
13 May
20 Oct
18 Sep
UY = EstanzuelaAR = Pergamino
Location Date of First FrostDate of Last Frost Frost Period Days with frost Mean Frost Temp
1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000AR-Azul 99 109 314 298 215 189 69 63 -0.7 -0.9
AR-Cordoba 122 140 270 248 148 109 42 23 -0.8 -0.3
AR-Pergamino 107 133 293 261 187 127 49 33 -0.6 -0.2
AR-SRosa 82 114 312 278 231 163 79 52 -1.2 -1.0
AR-TArroyos 119 113 305 300 187 186 53 46 -0.1 -0.4
BR-Pelotas 177 166 218 211 41 45 6 4 0.9 0.7
BR-PFundo 159 152 231 233 72 81 8 8 0.2 0.4
UY-Estanzuela 158 165 257 233 98 68 20 7 0.5 0.9
UY-Mercedes 143 138 261 270 118 133 21 31 0.1 -0.4
UY-Paysandu 136 163 267 241 131 78 27 11 -0.5 0.6
Numbers in bold were obtained from regressions that were significant at the p<0.1 levelAR = Argentina, BR = Brazil, UY = Uruguay
Changes in frost regime estimated with regressions (1930-2000)
Location Date of First FrostDate of Last Frost Frost Period Days with frost Mean Frost Temp
1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000AR-Azul 99 109 314 298 215 189 69 63 -0.7 -0.9
AR-Cordoba 122 140 270 248 148 109 42 23 -0.8 -0.3
AR-Pergamino 107 133 293 261 187 127 49 33 -0.6 -0.2
AR-SRosa 82 114 312 278 231 163 79 52 -1.2 -1.0
AR-TArroyos 119 113 305 300 187 186 53 46 -0.1 -0.4
BR-Pelotas 177 166 218 211 41 45 6 4 0.9 0.7
BR-PFundo 159 152 231 233 72 81 8 8 0.2 0.4
UY-Estanzuela 158 165 257 233 98 68 20 7 0.5 0.9
UY-Mercedes 143 138 261 270 118 133 21 31 0.1 -0.4
UY-Paysandu 136 163 267 241 131 78 27 11 -0.5 0.6
Numbers in bold were obtained from regressions that were significant at the p<0.1 levelAR = Argentina, BR = Brazil, UY = Uruguay
Changes in frost regime estimated with regressions (1930-2000)
2000 compared to 1930:•Frost period starts later and ends earlier•Less number of frosts in the frost period•Mean temperature of frosts is higher
Changes in absolute and in mean TMax and TminEstimated with Regressions (1930 – 2000)
Location Max T Max Min T Min Mean T Max Mean T Min
1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000AR-Azul 46.0 33.7 -5.5 -6.5 20.4 20.8 7.5 8.1
AR-Cordoba 41.1 37.5 -6.3 -4.3 24.7 23.6 10.0 11.8
AR-Pergamino 38.2 37.3 -5.9 -4.2 22.5 22.7 9.2 10.9
AR-SRosa 41.2 38.3 -8.9 -7.1 22.7 22.4 7.8 9.2
AR-TArroyos 40.2 36.0 -4.2 -4.8 21.3 20.2 8.3 8.8
BR-Pelotas 36.8 36.3 -0.1 -0.3 23.0 22.8 13.1 13.9
BR-PFundo 34.6 34.3 -0.7 -1.2 23.7 23.6 12.9 13.4
UY-Estanzuela 38.9 36.3 -1.6 -0.7 21.9 21.6 10.7 12.1
UY-Mercedes 40.4 37.5 -3.6 -3.5 23.3 24.2 10.9 12.1
UY-Paysandu 39.8 38.3 -4.5 -1.1 24.0 23.9 11.0 12.8
Numbers in bold were obtained from regressions that were significant at the p<0.1 level
AR = Argentina, BR = Brazil, UY = Uruguay
Changes in absolute and in mean TMax and TminEstimated with Regressions (1930 – 2000)
2000 compared to 1930:
Absolute TMax and Mean TMax are lower Absolute TMin and Mean TMin are higher
Location Max T Max Min T Min Mean T Max Mean T Min
1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000 1930 2000AR-Azul 46.0 33.7 -5.5 -6.5 20.4 20.8 7.5 8.1
AR-Cordoba 41.1 37.5 -6.3 -4.3 24.7 23.6 10.0 11.8
AR-Pergamino 38.2 37.3 -5.9 -4.2 22.5 22.7 9.2 10.9
AR-SRosa 41.2 38.3 -8.9 -7.1 22.7 22.4 7.8 9.2
AR-TArroyos 40.2 36.0 -4.2 -4.8 21.3 20.2 8.3 8.8
BR-Pelotas 36.8 36.3 -0.1 -0.3 23.0 22.8 13.1 13.9
BR-PFundo 34.6 34.3 -0.7 -1.2 23.7 23.6 12.9 13.4
UY-Estanzuela 38.9 36.3 -1.6 -0.7 21.9 21.6 10.7 12.1
UY-Mercedes 40.4 37.5 -3.6 -3.5 23.3 24.2 10.9 12.1
UY-Paysandu 39.8 38.3 -4.5 -1.1 24.0 23.9 11.0 12.8
Numbers in bold were obtained from regressions that were significant at the p<0.1 level
AR = Argentina, BR = Brazil, UY = Uruguay
Reported Changes in Means
Changes in Variability?
Changes in mean values (DJF)
050
100150200250
300350400450500
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
Rainfall (mm per trimester)
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in mean values (MAM)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
Rainfall (mm per trimester)
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in mean values (JJA)
050
100150200250
300350400
450500
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
Rainfall (mm per trimester)
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in mean values (SON)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
Rainfall (mm per trimester)
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in Standard Deviation (DJF)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
SD (mm per trimester)
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in Standard Deviation (MAM)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
SD (mm per trimester)
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in Standard Deviation (JJA)
0.020.0
40.060.0
80.0100.0120.0
140.0160.0
180.0200.0
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
SD (mm per trimester)
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in Standard Deviation (SON)
0.020.0
40.060.0
80.0100.0
120.0140.0
160.0180.0
200.0
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
SD (mm per trimester)
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
7+, 2-, 1= 3+, 3-, 4=
4+, 4-, 2=
5+, 5=
Conclusions
Increased Rainfall in Spring and SummerBetter for pastures, summer crops but animal / crop diseases? pests?(M. Fernandes’ presentation)
Increased Rainfall Variability in Summer (?)(higher risk)
Decreased Mean T Max (Spring and Summer)
Increased Mean T Min (all year)
Shorter frost period (first – last dates)Less number of days with frost Frosts became less severe (Temp is higher)
Changes in the Coefficient of Variation (DJF)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
CV (%) per trimester
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in the Coefficient of Variation (MAM)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
CV (%) per trimester
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in the Coefficient of Variation (JJA)
0.010.0
20.030.0
40.050.0
60.070.0
80.090.0
100.0
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
CV (%) per trimester
1930 - 19641965 - 2000
Changes in the Coefficient of Variation (SON)
0.0
5.010.0
15.020.0
25.0
30.035.0
40.045.0
50.0
UYLE UYMC UYPY BRPF BRPE ARAZ ARPE ARCO ARTA ARSR
CV (%) per trimester
1930 - 19641965 - 2000