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Week 4/Sept.23rd 2012

Nordic Europe: an introductionPlease note the importance of doing the basic introductory reading to go with and make sense of these notes. Moreover, to master this topic, you will have to do the more advanced reading that has been indicated as relevant for the exam. These readings are itemized in the course outline.

LECTURE STRUCTURE

• Where are these countries?

• Shared historical background

• The Nordic Five Party System.

• Case Study I: Iceland as a Nordic 'odd man out'.

• Case Study II: Nordic Security Policies-continuity and change.

• Conclusions

Where are these Countries?MAP OF THE NORDIC REGION

Notice “Nordic” is wider as a term than “Scandinavian” which means just Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Nordic would even include Greenland, Iceland and the Faroes, as well as Finland. See over for wider map.

SHARED HISTORICAL BACKGROUND.

• A distinctive region for the following reasons:

THE OLD FLAG OF UNION BETWEEN SWEDEN AND NORWAY 1814-1905.

1. Homogenous societies?(Shared history, language, administrative tradition and

culture.)

In 1931 Swedish troops fired on striking workers at Adalen (killing five). This highly unusual event led to curbs on the role of the military in support of Police. Contrast with Germany/France in the 1930s?

Little violence (few extreme parties outside of Finland, high degree of social consensus,

relatively good treatment of minorities)

The popular Danish Queen Margrethe II on a state visit to the Faroes in 2005.Quality of democracy in these states is perhaps

the best in the world-high rates of voting, generally excellent institutions

(“Bicycle” monarchies, Danish ombudsman, Swedish Royal Commissions), etc.

The president of Finland*, (2000-2012), Tarja Halonen.

*A new Finnish president was elected in 2012, when conservative Sauli Niinisto won the election.

Lower levels of inequality (Highest number of female MPs, together with advanced

and expensive welfare states.)

The HQ of Nokia in Espoo, Finland (but for how long, before its moved to China?)

Advanced and still successful economies-but for how long?

(Norwegian oil, Finnish ‘clever firms’-Nokia and Swedish ‘giant firms’-Volvo, Ericsson, etc.)

6. Distinctive FIVE party system (the above parties are Swedish, but the model holds in general-Iceland an exception) (Dominated by a usually large social democratic party and a fragmented right, formed by conservative, liberal and rural based ‘centre’ parties. Nordic societies chiefly divided by social class and urban/rural divide.)

NOTE: the centre agrarian parties have historically crossed the left-right boundary and formed coalitions with Social Democrats. There are new & other parties today, such as Green parties and Christian Democratic Parties, which are really Christian Values parties and not traditional German/Italian style Christian democrats. They are more informed by Lutheran evangelical beliefs that Catholic social teaching.

ex-communist/now far left

Conservative/Moderate/ToriesLiberal partyCentre/Agrarian/Rural Party

Social Democrats/Labour

Left Bloc Right ‘Bourgeois’ Bloc

Pia Kjaersgaard, leader of the Danish People’s Party, whose main policy is very tough immigration controls. The poster on the right is from the DPP and say’s “When she retires, Muslims will be a majority in Denmark.”

Since the 1970s parties of the extreme

right and populist parties have

emerged-notably in Denmark and

Norway. [Now Sweden and Finland after election 2010-2011!]

Note, also in Finland, the importance of the Swedish Peoples’ Party, and home rule movements for Faroes, Greenland in Danish politics.

Finnish soldiers at road block in Kosovo searching for arms, drugs, etc., as part of the NATO led, but UN mandated, KFOR peacekeeping force in Kosovo. NOTE: Finland is neutral and not a NATO member but co-operates with NATO in meeting the UN mandate. Irish Soldiers serve in the same unit as the Finns.

(Photo circa 2007)

7. Distinctive foreign policy

(Sweden and Finland both still “neutral”-but vaguely so; Norway is a member of NATO; Denmark historically has been a member of NATO but with some misgivings, and has opt-outs on EU security; Iceland-an American/NATO protectorate, but they left?)

Iceland-the little Nordic state

• Small population-320,000 people (i.e. Belfast!)• Economy still very much based on fishing (40% of exports) but also cheap hydro/thermal energy

allows aluminum smelting.....fishing after the financial crash has become more important with major conflict over N. Atlantic Mackerel stocks: Icelandic catches have risen from well under 50,000t before 2007 to close to 150,000t in 2012-EU have imposed sanctions on Iceland (and the Faroes) as a result.....as of 2013 EU fines pending….

• Strong historic Lutheran moral tradition...strict laws on alcohol until recently (mostly secular today)• Egalitarian culture-women more socially significant than other societies....... Vigdís Finnbogadóttir

(above) was the first female elected head of state in Europe as president of Iceland 1980-1996.• High tech society-greatest per capita internet use in the world....95% of the population, followed by

Norway (94) (est. 2011).

Iceland as a Nordic odd man out?

• Nationalism defined Iceland politics-home rule from Denmark emerged between 1874-1918 and full independence (against a backdrop of US military occupation) came in 1944.

• The Labour / Social Democratic party tradition was weaker in Iceland compared with the rest of Nordic Europe (more like Ireland)

• The nationalist and conservative Independence party formed in 1929, dominated cabinet government formation since the 1940s and was the largest party (like FF & FG!) getting over 30-40% of the vote-the right-wing was stronger in Iceland than any other Nordic country (possible exception of Finland.)

• Iceland adopted in 1944 a Presidential system, alongside a strong Nordic parliamentary system. In theory the Icelandic president may exercise some important power, in practice their mostly ceremonial

Icelandic foreign policy-mixture of servile and strong-headed

• Refused to Join EEC (over fish) but was member of the EFTA and later EEA.• Fought various Cod Wars 1958-1976 (with UK and Germany) over fishing grounds• NATO membership domestically contentious• NATO/US 2006 forces withdraw• Financial crisis provokes speculation of EU membership bid

• Tension between Icelandic and British and Dutch government over liability for Icelandic banks bad-

debts and massive rows with EU over ‘over-fishing’ sanctions.

Iceland post crash 2009-still odd?

• Left wing Social Democratic Alliance and Left-Green party form a government led by Jóhanna Sigurdardóttir on their own for the first time...the conservative Independence party is on the opposition benches....for the first time in 18 years...worst ever showing... .....below 25% of the vote.... but polls show they have come back somewhat....

• Iceland suffered the largest banking crisis in relative terms of any country.....these Banks were nationalized, some of their bad debts have been written off, and their national bank had to intervene and allow the national currency to devalue heavily...while restricting foreign currency trades (to restrict capital flight)

• inflation soared to 20% and cost of imported goods has risen steeply ...interest also very high.... unemployment tripled yup to over 9% buthas since dropped back down to under 5%

• Icelandic external debt was about SIX times GDP......but now is closer to 130% of GDP....lower than Ireland, moreover the cost of their repayments and emergency funding is mostly at lower interest rates.....

• A large IMF bailout was agreed and had to be accepted.......much of this in detail came from other Nordic states.• Crisis was less domestically driven by property speculation (unlike Ireland and USA) nor access to cheap Euro funds

(Ireland and other peripheral Eurozone states). The overall cause seems to have been a failure of domestic an international regulation of the inter-bank financial system which allow small Icelandic banks to over-borrow and play at global investment. There was also just fundamental excessive money supply growth divorced from underlying wealth generation.

• A new constitution was worked on involving citizens directly, and is due for Voting on in October (2012)• The new government suggested joining the EU within four years....joining with Croatia an apparent goal in 2013...a formal

letter of application had been lodged....negotiations are ongoing but fishing remains a major obstacle and the Independence party remains sceptical and could win back votes on the issue....the Left Green Party in govt are hostile...as are elements of the Social Democrats...even the President (Grimsson) is openly anti-EU. Recent poll suggest a majority (54%) Against EU entry now....

Iceland 2013-a return to type?

• Parliamentary election in April was won by the centre-right-the left are removed from power with the Social Democrats losing 10 seats!

• In particular the FF like Independence party did well (+ 3 seats) but also the Progressive party (+10 seats) who are Agrarian (neo)liberals

• The election in part was about EU accession negotiations-which have been ongoing slowly since 2010. The Independence and Progressive parties are hostile to EU membership and demand a referendum on negotiations continuing (never mind membership).

• As a result EU membership for Iceland is on hold and somewhat stalled and are officially on hold until confirmed by a forthcoming referendum which may approve negotiations ongoing…but not membership as such.

• http://www.euractiv.com/enlargement/iceland-quits-eu-talks-news-529923

Nordic Security Policies-how much change?

• Sweden and Finland have not formally joined NATO...but there is a lot more informal co-operation, especially in Sweden, since conservative governments after 2006.

• Swedish military jets participated in NATO operation in Libya in 201 (in a non-lethal role): previously unthinkable and very far from traditional neutrality.

• Finland has preferred to work with evolving EU security frameworks on peacekeeping...but the option of NATO membership is raised in domestic politics by the right wing parties.....and remains very much linked to Russia’s posture

Expeditionary security or stay close to home?

• Danish and Norwegian govts. have participated heavily within NATO in controversial Afghan mission (Finland and Sweden have also sent peace-keepers but in less demanding/lethal roles). Danes have over 40+ dead in Afghanistan.

• Sweden has ended conscription-and is remaking its entire defence forces into a much smaller ‘expeditionary’ force that can fight with NATO and the US very far from Sweden......this is a major change from traditional Swedish security concerns which have focused on Russia and their threat to the Baltic........Danish and Norwegian forces are also becoming more expeditionary but conscription for now has not ended....

• Swedish and Finnish defence industries becoming less national and more integrated into EU/British and US global arms industry.....

• Ironically there is continuity in terms of security threat-Russia remains with a large military/naval presence in Kalingrad....and Russian Estonian tensions in 2008 reveal that the Baltic states are very much in the frontline when it comes to how Russia evolves and to what extent it may (or may not) become a greater threat.

• Norway spending heavily on Improved Arctic security capabilities....very much a traditional concern....

• Russia retains sovereignty of Kalingrad (ex- Germany) seized after WW2...and they continue to use it as a naval base....

CONCLUSIONS• The distinctive five party system of Nordic democracies remains alive and well (if modified-a 7 party system?)

• The centre-right bloc has NOT solidified into just 1 or 2 big parties-party system remains plural.

• Relatively Small centre parties survive for example, and may be vital coalitions partners, including with Social democrats.

• Social Democrats appear to be weakening in elections, based on most recent election results (in Finland, Sweden, Denmark) but otherwise they remain powerful coalition players. Are they in crisis?

• The rise of populist/nationalist extreme-right parties who campaign of the immigration issue is threat to the established parties......

• Our naive view of a Nordic ‘perfect’ model is out of date and inaccurate...their politics is now less unique and different...more like elsewhere in Europe?

• Iceland post-economic crash 2008 is arguably less of an odd man out-the rise of a centre left bloc, the collapse of the independence party, and talks/plans to join EU...suggest becoming a more typical Nordic state....

• Nordic security policies are marked as much by continuity....Neutrality remains supported by voters in both Finland and Sweden, but elite driven policies are edging away from neutrality...NATO continues to dominate Nordic/Baltic security debates.

• ENDS