Washington D.C.September 10, 2004

Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand

Thailand Power Development PlanThailand Power Development Plan

(PDP2004 , 2004-2015)(PDP2004 , 2004-2015)

Thailand Power SectorThailand Power Sector

MEA, PEA (Distribution)

NEPC(Chaired

byPrime

Minister)

Customer

Private Co.IPP, SPP

PPA

EGAT

(Generation , Transmission)

2

THAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNINGTHAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

OBJECTIVES

• To generate and supply power to meet demand with goodquality and high reliability

• To generate power at least cost

• To control the environmental and social effect at the lowest level

3

BASIC Procedure for Power Development Plan StudyBASIC Procedure for Power Development Plan Study

Load ForecastLoad ForecastLoad ForecastLoad Forecast Criteria and AssumptionCriteria and AssumptionCriteria and AssumptionCriteria and Assumption PDPPDPPDPPDP

11 22 33

4

ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THAILAND

( FISCAL YEAR 2003 )

TOTAL 104,389 GWh

Others

6,617 GWh 6.3%

Small General Service

10,207 GWh 9.8%Residential

23,034 GWh 22.1%

Medium General Service

19,667 GWh 18.8%

Large General Service

41,655 GWh 39.9%Specific Business

3,209 GWh 3.1%

5

TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND

ResidentialSmall

General Service

SpecificBusiness

Government& Non-Profit

StreetLighting

Medium& LargeGeneral Service59

%

End-UseApproach

RegressionbetweenEnergy

&GDP Bussiness

RegressionbetweenEnergy

&GDP Hotel

RegressionbetweenEnergy

&GDP Public

RegressionbetweenEnergy

&Population

• Projected Energy Intensity• GDP by Production Sub-Sector

Load Forecast Principle Methodology Load Forecast Principle Methodology

6

9.8%

3%

22%

(Load Profile)

Total Generation Requirement DemandTotal Generation Requirement Demand

7

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

MW

Fiscal Year

MEG(GDP 6%)

TEG(GDP 7.5%)

LEG(GDP 4%)

Load Forecast January 2004Load Forecast January 2004

Jan , 2004

8

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

MW

Fiscal Year

MEG(GDP 6%)

TEG(GDP 7.5%)

LEG(GDP 4%)

Load Forecast January 2004Load Forecast January 2004

Aug 02(GDP 4.7%)

Jan , 2004

9

THAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNINGTHAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS

2. Introduction of a 500 MW for peak cutting.

4. Power purchase from the neighbouring countries/

new capacity.

1. Minimum Reserve Margin 15%.

3. RPS 5% (630 MW).

12

Fiscal January 2004 (MEG) MEG : Peak Cut 500 MW

Year Increase Increase

MW % MW %

1999 13,712.4 -467.5 -3.3 13,712.4 -467.5 -3.3

2000 14,918.3 1,205.9 8.8 14,918.3 1,205.9 8.8

2001 16,126.4 1,208.1 8.1 16,126.4 1,208.1 8.1

2002 16,681.1 554.7 3.4 16,681.1 554.7 3.4

2003 18,121.4 1,440.3 8.6 18,121.4 1,440.3 8.6

2004 19,600 1,479 8.2 19,600 1,479 8.2

2005 21,143 1,543 7.9 21,143 1,543 7.9

2006 22,738 1,595 7.5 22,238 1,095 5.2

2007 24,344 1,606 7.1 23,844 1,606 7.2

2008 26,048 1,704 7.0 25,548 1,704 7.1

2009 27,852 1,804 6.9 27,352 1,804 7.1

2010 29,808 1,956 7.0 29,308 1,956 7.2

2011 31,844 2,036 6.8 31,344 2,036 6.9

2012 33,945 2,101 6.6 33,445 2,101 6.7

2013 36,173 2,228 6.6 35,673 2,228 6.7

2014 38,515 2,342 6.5 38,015 2,342 6.6

2015 40,978 2,463 6.4 40,478 2,463 6.5

MWMW

EGAT Generation Requirement - Peak Cut 500 MWEGAT Generation Requirement - Peak Cut 500 MWUnit : MW

13

* * *****

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000 PDP 2004

20142005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112004 2012 20152013

SPP

20

.2 M

W

1 2 1 4 3 3 4

= 23 Units

41

26.8% 19.9% 13.7% 15.3% 15.5% 15.9% 14.3% 14.4% 15.3% 14.3% 14.6% 14.2%

SPP

16

3.7

MW

RP

S +

175

MW

INSTALLED CAPACITY AND PEAK GENERATION IN 2004-2015

INSTALLED CAPACITY

DEPENDABLE CAPACITY

Reserve Margin

CA

PA

CIT

Y (

MW

)

Kra

bi #

1 3

40 M

W, L

an K

rabu

122

MW

Lam

Tak

ong

PS.

#1-

2 2

x500

MW

, SP

P 1

02.2

MW

BL

CP

Pow

er #

1-2

2x6

73.2

5 M

W

GU

LF

Pow

er (

Add

itio

nal)

700

MW

Song

Khl

a C

C

700

MW

GU

LF

Pow

er 7

00 M

W

Rat

chab

uri P

ower

#1-

2

2x70

0 M

W

Nor

th B

angk

ok C

C #

1 7

00 M

W

Sout

h B

angk

ok C

C #

1 7

00 M

W

Pur

chas

es f

rom

Lao

(N

am T

huen

2)

920

MW

Ban

g P

akon

g C

C #

5

700

MW

New

Cap

acit

y 4

x700

+ 1

40 M

W

New

Cap

acit

y 3

x700

+ 1

05 M

W

New

Cap

acit

y 3

x700

+ 1

05 M

W

New

Cap

acit

y 4

x700

+ 1

40 M

W

New

Cap

acit

y 4

x700

+ 1

40 M

W

PEAK DEMAND

FISCAL YEAR14

020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000220,000240,000260,000280,000 New Capacity

RPS Renewable SPP EGAT

-TNB Diesel Heavy Oil Natural Gas Imported Coal Lignite Hydro

GWh

15% 12% 11% 11% 8%9% 7%

74%74%

75%76%

71%

14%19%

26%32%

13%

FISCAL YEAR

10% 9% 8% 7% 7%

72% 70% 66%65%

FORECAST OF ENERGY GENERATION BY TYPE OF FUELS

64% 60% 54% 49%

6%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

15

Thailand Minimum Reserve MarginThailand Minimum Reserve MarginFiscal Year Dependable MEG Peak Cut Reserve

Capacity (MW) (MW) %2004 24,858.3 19,600(8.16) 26.82005 25,358.3 21,143(7.87) 19.92006 25,281.9 22,238(5.18) 13.72007 27,492.1 23,844(7.22) 15.32008 29,592.1 25,548(7.15) 15.52009 31,692.1 27,352(7.06) 15.92010 33,487.1 29,308(7.15) 14.32011 36,427.1 31,344(6.95) 14.42012 38,557.1 33,445(6.70) 15.32013 40,762.1 35,673(6.66) 14.32014 43,702.1 38,015(6.57) 14.62015 46,242.1 40,478(6.48) 14.2

(NT2, 920 MW)

16* Install Capacity 25,705 MW (March 2004)

Sensitivity Study Load Forecast (Up to 2010)Sensitivity Study Load Forecast (Up to 2010)

1. MEG Adjust 2004 : 19,326 MW (19,600 MW)

Future Growth as MEG ( 7.1% Per Year)

2010 Load difference 418 MW

2. MEG Adjust 2004 : 19,326 MW (19,600 MW)

Future Growth as 2004 ( 6.64% Per Year)

2010 Load difference 1,383 MW

17

Thailand Minimum Reserve Margin (Study Case)Thailand Minimum Reserve Margin (Study Case) Fiscal Year Dependable MEG Adjust Reserve

Capacity (MW) Peak (MW) %2004 24,858.3 19,325(6.64) 28.62005 25,358.3 20,609(6.64) 23.02006 25,281.9 21,978(6.64) 15.02007 27,492.1 23,438(6.64) 17.32008 29,592.1 24,995(6.64) 18.42009 31,692.1 26,655(6.64) 18.92010 33,487.1 28,425(6.64) 17.82011 36,427.1 30,313(6.64) 20.22012 38,557.1 32,326(6.64) 19.32013 40,762.1 34,473(6.64) 18.22014 43,702.1 36,763(6.64) 18.92015 46,242.1 39,205(6.64) 18.0

(NT2, 920 MW)

18

Sufficiency With Least Cost,

No Brownout ,

No Rolling Blackout ,

No Blackout

24

Thailand Power Development PlanThailand Power Development Plan