washington state population and employment data … state population and employment data 2010-2030...
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Washington State Population and Employment Data
2010-2030
Implications for Community and Technical Colleges
Educational Attainment for All
April 16, 2014
1
Population trends and projections for community and technical college participation:
HighlightsPopulation growth will be smaller than what occurred in
the preceding 20 year period (1991-2010) with marked differences in the growth within age groups.
If current college participation rates are maintained, population growth will mean 10% growth in state and Running Start enrollments by 2030, substantially less growth than occurred between 1991-2010.
Regional differences for population growth, educational attainment, race/ethnicity, and limited English.
Future skill requirements needed for employment demand substantial growth in long certificates and 2 year degrees. 2
Population change in the coming 20 years will be smaller than the previous 20 years
45%
11%
15%
8%
13% 12%
15-19 Years 20-44 Years 15-44 Years
Population Change 1991-2010 and 2011-2030
1991-2010 2011-2030
3
High school graduating classes will be smaller than 2010 peak until 2027, when they reach a new peak
4
At current participation rates, headcount will increase 10% over next 20 years, about half the rate during preceding twenty years
5
5,9118,134
3,119 2,8153,734
1,961 2,8361,297
29,80618%
9%
9%
8%
11%11%
12%
5%
10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Central & East King Northwest Pierce Snohomish South Sound Southwest Spokane WashingtonState
Total Headcount Enrollment Growth to 2030 if 2012-13 Participation Rates Are Maintained
Total Headcount Growth Ages 15-65 % Growth
Student headcount growth due to population changes by age will vary among regions
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Central &East
King Northwest Pierce Snohomish SouthSound
Southwest Spokane
Headcount Growth (State + Running Start) by Region if 2013 Participation Rates Are Maintained to 2030
15-19 20-24 25-44 45-64 65+
6
Washingtonians of color are in higher proportions in the central and east regions, King, Snohomish and Pierce counties
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Central &East
Northwest Southwest SouthSound
Spokane King Snohomish Pierce WashingtonState
Population of Color 15-44 Years2010 Census
Black/African American Native American Asian Pacific Islander Two or More Races Hispanic
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64% of Washingtonians 18-44 years old have less than an associate degree
25%
12% 13%8% 9%
12% 11% 12% 12%
28% 27% 28%25%
17%
30%27% 28%
24%25%
32% 31%34%
23%
30% 28%30%
28%
22%
29% 29%33%
51%
28%
34%29%
36%
CENTRAL & EAST NORTHWEST SOUTHWEST SPOKANE KING PIERCE SNOHOMISH SOUTH SOUND WASHINGTONSTATE
Educational Attainment Populations 18-44 Years
Less than HS HS Some College,No Degree Associate Degree or Higher
8
Adults with limited English most heavily concentrated in central and east regions, King and Snohomish counties
16%
4%6%
4%3%
12%
9%
6%
Central andEast
Northwest Southwest SouthSound
Spokane King Snohomish Pierce
% Regional Population 18-64"Speaks English Less Than Very Well"
Statewide-9%
9
To meet demand for certificates and associate degrees, CTCs have to complete 46,000 to 55,200 students every year from by 2021. Target increases substantially in 2025 and
again in 2030.
2016-21* 2025** 2030**
Total Annual Completions Needed for Post Secondary 100,856 – 129,526 148,800 177,000
Mid-level Completions Needed 55,532 – 66,049 78,500 90,000
Total CTC System Completions 46,105- 54,836 65,200 77,600
Growth over 2016 average of range34% 59%
10
*This is from 2013 A Skilled and Educated Workforce (Joint Report). The low range is the entry education level (BLS) and the high is the competitive education level (ACS).**Extrapolated by SBCTC staff from 2021 going forward.
11
• Slower enrollment growth, especially among new high school graduates. Impact on degree production goals?
• Most growth by people of color and 35-44 year olds. Impact on outreach and access strategies?
• Growing gap between employment demand and CTC supply (10% enrollment growth, 59% employment growth). Can’t meet economic demand with population growth. Improve access for people of color, placebound, working adults without college credentials, people who are not college ready?
• More older students. Focus on acceleration and competencies?
Some Implications for community and technical colleges
12
• Greatest growth needed in basic skills and workforce training. Impact on funding?
• More completions needed. Focus on early interventions, student retention and completions?
• Enrollment accountability or student achievement accountability?
• Rising cost of college. What can we do to reduce costs? Dual credit, open textbooks, eLearning, acceleration?
• Transitions are key. We must have academic alignment among sectors and smoother handoffs.
Some Implications for community and technical colleges