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Watch List Presentations April 17, 2008 David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson

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Watch List Presentations. April 17, 2008 David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson. Schering-Plough Corp. Introductory Presentation April 17, 2008. Outline. Company Overview Industry Overview Valuation. Company Overview. Global Pharmaceutical Firm Three Operating Segments - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Watch List Presentations

Watch List Presentations

April 17, 2008

David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson

Page 2: Watch List Presentations

Schering-Plough Corp.

Introductory Presentation

April 17, 2008

Page 3: Watch List Presentations

Outline

Company Overview

Industry Overview

Valuation

Page 4: Watch List Presentations

Company Overview Global Pharmaceutical Firm Three Operating Segments

Prescription Medicines Consumer Health Products Animal Health Products

In a five-phase Action Agenda that began in 2003

Note: All data from company sources unless otherwise stated

Page 5: Watch List Presentations

Company Overview Acquired Organon for $16.1BN1

Part of Phase Four: Build the Base Organon diversifies product offerings and

vastly expands pipeline World’s third largest maker of birth-control pills Double the number of drugs in development Two products may get approval this year

1: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apX86Qqux7T4&refer=home Accessed on 4/10/08

Page 6: Watch List Presentations

Segments: Animal Products Develops and produces animal health

products Vaccines Anitbiotics, Anti-inflammatories Livestock Management Systems

10% of Sales

Page 7: Watch List Presentations

Segments: Consumer Health OTC

As well as several other drugs Foot Care

Sun Care

10% of Sales 20%+ Profit Margins

Page 8: Watch List Presentations

Segments: Prescriptions Six biggest sellers(45% of total SGP sales): Remicade- Treatment for serious inflammations Nasonex Pegintron- Hepititis C Temodar- Certain types of brain tumors Clarinex/Aerius Claritin Dozens of other drugs totaling 35% of total sales

Page 9: Watch List Presentations

Segments: Vytorin JV Joint Venture Operated with Merck ENHANCE Study

New scrips were down less than 20% the week the data was released1

Erased over $50BN of market cap from the 2 companies combined

Produced total profits of $5BN in 2007 Split 50/50 between MRK and SGP

1: CNBC on April 5, 2008

Page 10: Watch List Presentations

Industry Overview Moving to be a major pharma firm Non-Cyclical Must Continually develop effective new

products Increasing number of drugs coming off patent

Losing revenue to generics

Page 11: Watch List Presentations

Investment Thesis Drastic Market overreaction has produced a

phenomenal buying opportunity Combined growth with Organon will produce a

self sustaining major pharmaceutical going forward

Any income from Vytorin is icing on the cake

Page 12: Watch List Presentations

Valuation

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGP&t=1y Accessed on 4/10/08

Page 13: Watch List Presentations

Valuation Assumptions

WACC: 8.78% Beta: 1.131, L/T Growth: 5% Used L/T Debt as the plug

Steadily decreased from 47% to 18% of sales

2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017EProjected Revenue Growth 20% 42% 15% 15% 15% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8%Gross Margin 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%R&D % of Sales 23% 22% 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%SG&A % of Sales 36% 30% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%PP&E % of Sales 82% 73% 73% 73% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%Vytorin Income ($BN) 1.50 1.50 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.00

1: http://finance.google.com/finance?q=sgp Accessed on 4/10/08

Page 14: Watch List Presentations

Valuation Current Price: $16.50

DCF Valuation: $22.97

Intrinsic Value: 20.68 - 25.27

Dividend Yield: 1.57%

Estimated Total Return: 40.5%

Page 15: Watch List Presentations

Valuation

Sensitivity AnalysisWACC

22.97 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 8.78% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 13.00%2.0% 28.30 21.02 16.16 13.37 12.70 10.10 8.08 6.47 5.152.5% 31.99 23.13 17.49 14.33 13.58 10.72 8.53 6.80 5.403.0% 36.90 25.76 19.07 15.46 14.61 11.42 9.03 7.17 5.683.5% 43.78 29.15 21.01 16.80 15.83 12.23 9.60 7.58 5.98

Growth 4.0% 54.09 33.66 23.43 18.42 17.28 13.18 10.25 8.04 6.324.5% 71.29 39.98 26.54 20.41 19.07 14.30 10.99 8.56 6.705.0% 105.67 49.46 30.70 22.94 21.30 15.64 11.87 9.16 7.135.5% 208.83 65.26 36.51 26.23 24.16 17.29 12.90 9.85 7.616.0% #DIV/0! 96.86 45.23 30.72 27.98 19.34 14.14 10.66 8.16

Page 16: Watch List Presentations

Valuation- with NO Vytorin Income Dividend Yield: 1.57%

Estimated Total Return: 21%

Page 17: Watch List Presentations

Valuation- with NO Vytorin Income Current Price: $16.50

DCF Valuation: $19.72

Intrinsic Value: 17.75 – 21.69

Dividend Yield: 1.57%

Estimated “Down Case” Total Return: 21%