watch our cio explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 overbought oversold...

14
Performance | Top 20 Policy Themes Overbought & Oversold | Top 20 Policy Themes Weekly Highlights Policy Theme Change 1 Week QTD Policy Theme Current Drug Rebates 8.4% 9.2% Drug Rebates OB IMO 2020 -0.1% 28.6% IMO 2020 OB Infrastructure 4.1% 2.8% Infrastructure OB Sports Betting 0.4% 7.7% Sports Betting N Trade - NAFTA 3.1% 1.3% Trade - NAFTA N Deregulation (SIFIs) 1.4% -0.5% Deregulation (SIFIs) N Opioid Crisis 10.3% 5.9% Opioid Crisis N Trade - China & I.P. Theft 0.5% 2.3% Trade - China & I.P. Theft N 2019 Calendar 5G Telecom 2.0% 1.3% 5G Telecom N Aug 25-27: G-7 Summit in France Home Health Reimbursement 3.2% 3.6% Home Health Reimbursement N Late Aug/Early Sept: Decision on $11bn of E.U. Tariffs Local Media 3.0% -0.8% Local Media N Sept 17-18: FOMC Meeting Capital Markets 0.2% 1.0% Capital Markets N Energy Infrastructure -0.1% -1.4% Energy Infrastructure N Data Regulation 0.1% -1.1% Data Regulation N E-Cigarette Ban 1.9% 0.4% E-Cigarette Ban N Defense Spending -1.5% -3.1% Defense Spending N Student Loans & Servicing 0.6% -4.5% Student Loans & Servicing N Cannabis Legalization 3.0% -9.4% Cannabis Legalization OS Education -3.4% -5.0% Education OS Space Force -4.8% -7.7% Space Force OS U.S. Market Summary | 1 Week U.S. Market Sentiment | Last 12 Months Factor Quartiles | U.S. Market Performance Index Change % | bps Current 1 Wk Ago S&P Large Cap 500 0.5% 2,986 2,970 S&P Mid Cap 400 1.1% 1,937 1,917 S&P Small Cap 600 1.6% 950 936 Forward P/E Ratios S&P Large Cap 500 0.8% 16.6x 16.5x S&P Mid Cap 400 1.4% 15.8x 15.6x S&P Small Cap 600 2.1% 15.9x 15.5x Credit Spreads 10Y vs 2Y U.S. Treasuries 3 bps 18 bps 15 bps HY vs IG Corp. Bond -2 bps 323 bps 325 bps FX | Commodities U.S. Dollar Index -1.0% 97 98 Commodities Index -0.2% 79 79 Institutional Ownership High to Low % International Revenue 2 High to Low 1.24% 1.54% Market Cap Large to Small P/E Ratio High to Low Dividend Yield 1 High to Low 1.03% 1.37% 0.76% 1.10% 0.77% 1.25% 1.38% 2.19% ● Last week the best performing policy theme was Opioid Crisis, while Space Force was the worst. Currently, the most overbought policy theme is Drug Rebates, while the most oversold policy theme is Data Regulation. 1.49% 0.75% 1.34% 0.31% 0.90% 1.46% 1.20% 0.97% 1.15% 0.53% 1.33% 1.15% Additional Resources 3rd Analyst Ratings Best to Worst ● Small Caps outperformed Mid & Large Caps. Credit spreads were mixed, while the U.S. Dollar weakened (-1.0%) and Commodities weakened (-0.2%). 4th 1.10% 1.01% 1st 2nd Quartiles -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S. Stocks > $1 billion market cap. Analysis includes All U.S. Stocks. 1: Quartile 4 = non-dividend paying stocks. 2: Quartile 4 = stocks with no international revenue. OS OB Neutral.. -3 0 3 Newsletters Investment Solutions Policy Research Market Recap Watch our CIO explain how to use this report EventShares.com/MarketRecap October 19, 2019

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Page 1: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Performance | Top 20 Policy Themes Overbought & Oversold | Top 20 Policy Themes Weekly Highlights

Policy Theme Change 1 Week QTD Policy Theme Current

Drug Rebates ↑ 8.4% 9.2% Drug Rebates OB

IMO 2020 ↓ -0.1% 28.6% IMO 2020 OB

Infrastructure ↑ 4.1% 2.8% Infrastructure OB

Sports Betting ↑ 0.4% 7.7% Sports Betting N

Trade - NAFTA ↑ 3.1% 1.3% Trade - NAFTA N

Deregulation (SIFIs) ↑ 1.4% -0.5% Deregulation (SIFIs) N

Opioid Crisis ↑ 10.3% 5.9% Opioid Crisis N

Trade - China & I.P. Theft ↑ 0.5% 2.3% Trade - China & I.P. Theft N 2019 Calendar

5G Telecom ↑ 2.0% 1.3% 5G Telecom N Aug 25-27: G-7 Summit in France

Home Health Reimbursement ↑ 3.2% 3.6% Home Health Reimbursement N Late Aug/Early Sept: Decision on $11bn of E.U. Tariffs

Local Media ↑ 3.0% -0.8% Local Media N Sept 17-18: FOMC Meeting

Capital Markets ↑ 0.2% 1.0% Capital Markets N

Energy Infrastructure ↓ -0.1% -1.4% Energy Infrastructure N

Data Regulation ↑ 0.1% -1.1% Data Regulation N

E-Cigarette Ban ↑ 1.9% 0.4% E-Cigarette Ban N

Defense Spending ↓ -1.5% -3.1% Defense Spending N

Student Loans & Servicing ↑ 0.6% -4.5% Student Loans & Servicing N

Cannabis Legalization ↑ 3.0% -9.4% Cannabis Legalization OS

Education ↓ -3.4% -5.0% Education OS

Space Force ↓ -4.8% -7.7% Space Force OS

U.S. Market Summary | 1 Week U.S. Market Sentiment | Last 12 Months Factor Quartiles | U.S. Market Performance

Index Change % | bps Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P Large Cap 500 ↑ 0.5% 2,986 2,970

S&P Mid Cap 400 ↑ 1.1% 1,937 1,917

S&P Small Cap 600 ↑ 1.6% 950 936

Forward P/E Ratios

S&P Large Cap 500 ↑ 0.8% 16.6x 16.5x

S&P Mid Cap 400 ↑ 1.4% 15.8x 15.6x

S&P Small Cap 600 ↑ 2.1% 15.9x 15.5x

Credit Spreads

10Y vs 2Y U.S. Treasuries ↑ 3 bps 18 bps 15 bps

HY vs IG Corp. Bond ↓ -2 bps 323 bps 325 bps

FX | Commodities

U.S. Dollar Index ↓ -1.0% 97 98

Commodities Index ↓ -0.2% 79 79

Institutional Ownership

High to Low

% International Revenue2

High to Low

1.24%

1.54%Market Cap

Large to Small

P/E Ratio

High to Low

Dividend Yield1

High to Low

1.03% 1.37% 0.76%

1.10% 0.77% 1.25%

1.38%

2.19%

● Last week the best performing policy theme was Opioid

Crisis, while Space Force was the worst. Currently, the most

overbought policy theme is Drug Rebates, while the most

oversold policy theme is Data Regulation.

1.49% 0.75% 1.34%

0.31% 0.90% 1.46%1.20%

0.97%

1.15%

0.53% 1.33% 1.15%

Additional Resources

3rd

Analyst Ratings

Best to Worst

● Small Caps outperformed Mid & Large Caps. Credit spreads

were mixed, while the U.S. Dollar weakened (-1.0%) and

Commodities weakened (-0.2%).

4th

1.10% 1.01%

1st 2ndQuartiles

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Oc

t-1

8

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Overbought

Oversold

Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S. Stocks > $1 billion market cap.

Analysis includes All U.S. Stocks. 1: Quartile 4 = non-dividend payingstocks. 2: Quartile 4 = stocks with no international revenue.

OS OBNeutral..

-3 0 3

Newsletters

Investment Solutions

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

October 19, 2019

Page 2: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

5G Technology Capital Markets Deregulation (SIFI Threshold)

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

5G deployment is a geopolitical battleground. The US and China are

racing to develop their respective 5G networks, and the winner will likely

set the technical standards for 5G. Setting standards is important

because it means the country's equipment will be used globally in

smartphones and Internet of Things (IoT) objects like self-driving cars. The

US views the latter as a national security threat and doesn't want to rely

on a Chinese 5G.

SEC Commissioner Jackson questioned the business model of stock

exchanges selling market data through a combination of public and

private feeds. Jackson claimed the exchanges underinvest in the public

data feeds, while at the same time overinvest in their private data feeds.

Regulation of private data feeds may lead to lower revenue and / or

discontinuation of private feeds.

Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) threshold raised from $50

billion to $250 billion may benefit smaller, regional banks by lowering their

compliance costs. Increased potential for regional bank M&A as banks

look to scale their operations. A decrease in capital requirements may

free up cash to return to shareholders or grow the business, while relaxing

oversight may lead to lower compliance expenses.

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

-5%

0%

5%

10%

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +5.6%

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -3.9%

Policy Research

Equal weight

50-day moving average

(50DMA) of basket

-2 standard

deviations from

50DMA

+2 standard deviations

from 50DMA

Trailing 1 Year Return relative

to the S&P 500 Index

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +6.4%

Page 3: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Legalized Sports Betting U.S. Infrastructure

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Under Mick Mulvaney's leadership, the Consumer Financial Protection

Bureau (CFPB) is working to deregulate subprime and non-traditional

lenders. Financial institutions previously backed away from the subprime

and non-traditional markets after the passage of Dodd-Frank, which

increased regulation and costs for the short-term and payday lending

industries. The CFPB actions provide regulatory certainty and decrease

compliance costs.

During May 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in the case of Murphy v.

NCAA. By a 6-3 majority, the court found that Congress exceed its

authority when it prevented state from legalizing and regulating sports

betting. The court ruling will likely spur the growth of the U.S. sports

betting industry. Companies that provide sports betting odds, build the

infrastructure to conduct the sports betting and manage gambler

information, and casinos may see increased revenue as sports betting

grows.

Companies involved in the privatization of infrastructure assets, such as

managing toll roads, may see increased revenues. In addition,

companies managing and performing the construction work may see

increased opportunities to grow their revenues. Construction material

companies, such as asphalt, rock, and steel, may see increased demand

under an infrastructure build out.

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

$60

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +125.2%

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1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -13.0%

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +3.8%

Policy Research

Page 4: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Space Force Data Regulation Cannabis Legalization

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

The Trump administration requested funding for a new military branch

during its most recent budget request. The new branch, called "Space

Force", would perform space related operations that include missile

warning and defense, space situational awareness and reconnaissance

with imaging satellites. This story is unfolding day by day and should be

watched closely in the coming months and years. For comparison, the

creation of the U.S. Cyber Command – the center for DoD cyberspace

activities – took ten years to reach full independent status from its first

official proposal. Space Force is even more complex endeavor, so it is

reasonable to expect an even longer time frame.

Rapidly expanding technology and social media companies may not be

able to collect and monetize individual user data resulting in less data

revenues. Third-party data brokers and aggregators may face increased

compliance costs and/or not be permitted to compile user data to

target specific advertising groups. This would be a significant disruption

to their business models. Credit reporting agencies may be subject to

increased compliance costs. Incoming House Democrats have made it

a priority to monitor credit reporting agencies and how they safeguard

sensitive consumer data.

Despite being illegal at the federal level, more and more states are

legalizing medical and recreational marijuana. While this trend likely

continues, it’s important to note there are significant policy implications

that come with legalizing marijuana, which could slow down federal

legalization. Those include taxing and regulating the product,

responding to employer concerns about liability and drug testing,

monitoring for driving under the influence, and addressing the marijuana

industry’s inability to use federally insured banks.

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

$80

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

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1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +7.2%

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -3.5%

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -56.0%

Policy Research

Page 5: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Energy Infrastructure Defense White House Prescription Drug Price Plan

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

The Trump administration has aggressively pushed to deregulate energy

infrastructure, including natural gas pipelines, oil drilling, and gas shipping

terminals. For example, one aspect of the administration's overall plan

would shorten the time a state has to issue water permits, which are

needed for construction of interstate natural gas pipelines under Section

401 of the federal Clean Water Act. The Trump administration has also

pushed to redefine "navigable water" under the Waters of the United

States rule. If the Trump administration is successful in changing the

definition of navigable water, the energy sector may be able to expand

infrastructure more quickly and less expensively.

Companies with products that advance the technological capability of

the U.S. military may see new revenue growth as the Pentagon and

defense hawks push to modernize the military after years of lower

defense budgets in the Obama administration.

The Trump administration has previously issued an executive order to

speed up and deregulate the process of defense industry sales to foreign

allies.

The White House's push to increase generic drug approval by FDA may

offer pharmaceutical companies with large generic drug lineups the

opportunity to take market share from companies with branded drug

lineups. Potential regulations include the required disclosure of prices in

prescription drug ads and changing the rebate system (see 'Drug

Rebates' below).

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

$50

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -33.6%

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1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +5.5%

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -36.1%

Policy Research

Page 6: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Drug Rebates ACA Opioid Crisis

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Health and Human Services (HHS) submitted a proposed rule entitled

“Removal Of Safe Harbor Protection for Rebates to Plans or PBMs

Involving Prescription Pharmaceuticals and Creation of New Safe Harbor

Protection” to OMB for regulatory review. The proposal appears to follow

through on HHS Secretary Azar's comments around removing the

prescription drug rebate safe harbor under the Federal Anti-Kickback

Statute.

A Texas judge recently ruled the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is

unconstitutional. This introduced uncertainty into health insurance and

will likely lead to a multi-year appeals process. The judge elected to

keep the insurance exchanges and law in place while the issue is

appealed. The Trump administration and Republican governors are

beginning to look at expending Medicaid/ Medicare, which may

increase the insured populations in those government health insurance

programs.

The House Committee on Energy & Commerce released a report during

December 2018 finding that "drug distributors did not conduct proper

oversight of their customers and failed to recognize potential red flags".

The report also faulted the DEA for not putting in place policies and

procedures to prevent the overdistribution of opioids. If the drug

distributors are found to have willfully ignored red flags or drug

manufacturers are found to have withheld important information about

opioid addiction, we believe the companies may experience depress

valuation multiples or distract management teams from expanding the

businesses.

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

$70

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -21.7%

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1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -4.5%

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1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -48.3%

Policy Research

Page 7: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Home Health Reimbursement E-Cigarette Ban Trade - NAFTA

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized a

proposed rule during October 2018 that changes the way post-acute

care (e.g. home health) is reimbursed under the Patient Driven

Groupings Model. The rule was a result of the Bipartisan Budget Act of

2018 and focuses on moving toward a values based payment system.

The new rule finalized a controversial methodology for calculating

reimbursement rates. The new payment rates and methodologies are

expected to be in place for fiscal year 2020.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) unveiled its "Comprehensive

Plan for Tobacco and Nicotine Regulation" in July 2017. Under the plan,

the FDA has launched numerous education campaigns, including "The

Real Cost", "This Is Our Watch", and "Every Try Counts". The FDA took

additional steps in March 2018 by publishing three Notices of Proposed

Rulemaking that would regulate flavored tobacco products and the

nicotine level in combustible cigarettes. In the second half of 2018, the

FDA sent warnings letters to retailers who illegally sold JUUL pods and

requested plans from tobacco companies about how to curb underage

usage.

Due to the uncertainty around NAFTA negotiations, investors previously

sold off companies with significant Mexico and Canada revenue. Now

that the negotiations are wrapping up, investors may reinvest in these

securities. "Auto Rules of Origin" and the push to source more auto

content from high wage paying firms, such as U.S. auto parts suppliers,

may increase revenues for the auto parts industry.

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

$85

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

+2 std

Price

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +22.7%

$50

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

+2 std

Price

-40%

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-20%

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -30.8%

Policy Research

$65

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

+2 std

Price

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -2.8%

Page 8: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Trade - China & I.P. Theft Student Loans & Servicing Education

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Companies involved in the U.S.-Asia Pacific trade corridor may see

revenues decrease if trades flow decrease between the U.S. and Asia-

Pacific region. Chinese tariffs levied on U.S. agriculture exports (e.g.

soybeans) may result in decreased demand for machinery. Additionally,

the U.S. has accused Chinese companies of stealing technology and

intellectual property from U.S. companies. If China implements a policy

preventing large cap U.S. companies from accessing the growing

Chinese market, those companies may have a competitive

disadvantage against foreign companies.

The Department of Ed is working to update the federal student loan

program called NextGen. The overhaul initially focused on one

company to service student loans. However, that request for proposal

(RFP) was later ended and a new RFP is being opened after lawmakers

and student debt activists highlighted the risk of one company

controlling the student loan servicing market. As part of the NextGen

proposal, the loan servicers would assume the role of debt collection

over private collection agencies. In our view, this could be positive if the

companies can successfully work with the student to avoid a default,

allowing the companies to continue earning servicing fees.

The Trump administration, via the Department of Education (ED), recently

released a group of sweeping proposals to deregulate a broad range of

the higher education industry. The rules range from granting

accreditation agencies more leeway to approve nontraditional

educational models (e.g. online programs and outsourcing classes),

enhance protections for religious colleges, and eliminate the Obama

administration definition of a "credit hour". The above is in addition to the

ED proposal to rescind the Gainful Employment Rule and update the

‘College Scorecard’ to provide information on all Title IX institutions, not

just for profit and nontraditional colleges.

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

$70

$80

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$110

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

+2 std

Price

-10%

0%

10%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -0.6%

$60

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

+2 std

Price

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -12.0%

$80

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

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Price

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

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15%

20%

25%

30%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -5.9%

Policy Research

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Value Based Reimbursement IMO 2020 Uranium

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Health tech firms focused on increasing efficiency by improving patient

outcomes and lowering costs may increase revenue as the healthcare

sector moves to a value based reimbursement system.

Lower sulfur content in marine shipping fuels will change oil shipping

routes and increase the complexity of fuel logistics. Driven by the

inequality in refining ability among countries and current capacity

constraints, (1) oil will need to be moved to different geographic

refineries and (2) refined products will need to be transported from

excess fuel regions to those regions with a shortage of fuel. Multi-Year

Impact: Effective date 1/1/2020; Significant disruption in the marine fuel

and oil shipping market could last through 2022

Section 232 nuclear study is preventing the short-run uranium market from

functioning efficiently. Uranium is key input in nuclear energy production.

Utilities producing nuclear energy typically enter long-term contracts to

purchase uranium, but have pulled back from the long-term contract

market due to concerns over potential quotas or tariffs. A resolution to

the Section 232 study is expected during summer 2019 and could restore

the market functionality if utilities begin to lock in long-term contracts.

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

Policy Research

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

+2 std

Price

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -27.7%

$75

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

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Price

-40%

-30%

-20%

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0%

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20%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -30.2%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +42.6%

Page 10: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Local Media Gun Stocks

Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)

Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)

FCC review of local market ownership rules may lead to industry

consolidation and economies of scale. Local broadcast owner growth is

constrained by national audience caps, while digital advertisers (e.g. FB,

GOOGL, TWTR, SNAP) grow exponentially due to audience caps. Pricing

power increase in retransmission fee negotiations. We anticipate

broadcast industry consolidation will lead to increased pricing power

when broadcast owners negotiate retransmission fees with traditional

and virtual cable distributors.

Historically, gun stocks have performed better when Democrats take

control of the executive and legislative branches due to fear future

regulation constraining gun sales, leading to "a run" on gun and

ammunication sales. With 2020 elections on the horizon, this group of

stocks could see some outperformance if polling numbers show

Democratics chances of taking the White House.

October 19, 2019

Policy Research

Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report

EventShares.com/MarketRecap

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

$150

$160

$170

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

+2 std

Price

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -2.3%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -43.5%

$50

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Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

-2 std

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Price

Page 11: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Performance (Policy Theme | Stock)

Capital Markets OB | OS Change 1 Week QTD Data Regulation 5G Telecom

CBOE N ↑ 1.0% 1.6% Alphabet OB ↑ 2.4% 1.9% American Tower N ↑ 2.1% 3.6%

CME Group N ↑ 0.2% 0.9% Amazon.com N ↑ 1.5% 1.2% Boingo Wireless OS ↓ -0.9% -15.3%

ICE OB ↑ 0.5% 2.3% CoreLogic N ↑ 1.2% 2.2% Broadcom N ↑ 2.1% 3.9%

Nasdaq N ↓ -0.7% -0.7% Equifax N ↑ 0.5% 2.9% Ciena N ↑ 1.7% -2.0%

Facebook N ↑ 0.9% 4.4% Cisco Systems N ↑ 0.3% -5.5%

Deregulation (SIFIs) Interpublic Group N ↑ 2.8% -4.2% CommScope N ↑ 3.3% -1.6%

American Express N ↑ 0.3% -1.3% LiveRamp OS ↓ -6.5% -12.2% Corning OB ↑ 0.9% 2.8%

Associated Bancorp OB ↑ 3.6% 1.3% Nielsen Holdings N ↑ 0.9% -1.7% Crown Castle N ↑ 5.4% 3.6%

BB&T N ↑ 1.3% -1.3% TransUnion N ↑ 1.1% 0.4% Dycom Industries OB ↑ 5.8% -0.7%

Fifth Third Bancorp N ↑ 1.8% -0.2% Twitter OS ↓ -3.4% -5.4% Ericsson OB ↑ 8.8% 15.0%

KeyCorp N ↑ 2.1% -0.4% InterDigital N ↓ -1.1% 0.5%

M&T Bank N ↓ -2.7% -3.6% Infrastructure Keysight Technologies N ↑ 3.4% 1.0%

PNC Financial OB ↑ 2.2% 2.4% AECOM OB ↑ 10.5% 9.3% Lattice Semiconductor N ↑ 0.5% 5.9%

SunTrust Banks N ↑ 1.4% -1.3% Astec Industries N ↑ 1.9% -0.6% Motorola N ↑ 4.5% 2.7%

U.S. Bancorp N ↑ 3.0% -0.5% Eagle Materials OB ↑ 2.2% 2.7% National Instruments N ↓ -0.2% -3.3%

Fluor N ↑ 1.1% -0.4% Nokia Oyj OB ↑ 3.6% 2.8%

Cannabis Legalization Granite Construction OB ↑ 8.1% 9.9% NXP Semiconductors N ↓ -1.6% -0.1%

Aurora Cannabis OS ↓ 0.0% -16.2% Herc Holdings OB ↑ 5.2% 0.4% ON Semiconductor N ↑ 0.5% -1.9%

Canopy Growth OS ↑ 4.0% -11.9% KBR N ↑ 1.3% 2.2% Qorvo OB ↑ 0.3% 4.7%

Cronos Group OS ↑ 6.1% -8.1% Martin Marietta N ↑ 0.1% -3.0% QUALCOMM N ↑ 1.3% 1.8%

GW Pharmaceuticals N ↑ 3.2% 2.7% NV5 Global N ↑ 1.8% 3.5% SBA Communications N ↑ 1.1% 1.2%

Tilray OS ↑ 2.0% -13.6% Primoris Services OB ↑ 3.5% 6.9% Skyworks Solutions OB ↑ 2.8% 10.8%

Summit Materials N ↑ 0.8% 0.8% Ubiquiti Networks OB ↑ 2.7% 6.9%

Sports Betting Tutor Perini OB ↑ 8.5% 15.0% Uniti Group N ↑ 4.5% -1.5%

Boyd Gaming OB ↓ 0.0% 8.6% U.S. Concrete OB ↑ 8.8% -4.2% Xilinx OS ↓ -2.0% -1.6%

Churchill Downs OB ↑ 0.0% 6.4% United Rentals OB ↑ 8.7% 3.2% Zayo Group OB ↑ 1.1% 1.3%

Eldorado Resorts OB ↑ 2.0% 8.0% Vulcan Materials N ↓ -0.9% -3.4%

Everi Holdings N ↑ 0.8% 5.7%

GVC Holdings OB ↑ 1.0% 14.7% Drug Rebates Student Loans & Servicing

Intl. Game Technology N ↓ -7.1% -7.6% Cigna OB ↑ 9.5% 9.9% Navient OS ↓ -0.8% -8.0%

Las Vegas Sands N ↓ -0.2% -0.5% CVS Health OB ↑ 5.1% 4.9% Nelnet OS ↓ -0.5% -5.1%

MGM Resorts N ↓ -0.7% 0.5% UnitedHealth Group OB ↑ 10.5% 12.9% SLM N ↑ 3.1% -0.2%

Penn National Gaming OB ↑ 7.0% 9.7%

Scientific Games N ↑ 1.4% 11.3% E-Cigarette Ban Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac

Stars Group OB ↓ -1.6% 31.9% Altria Group N ↑ 4.1% 8.4% Fannie Mae N ↓ -1.1% -6.8%

William Hill OB ↑ 2.3% 7.6% British American Tobacco OS ↑ 0.5% -6.4% Fannie Mae (Pfd) N ↓ -2.4% -4.1%

Wynn Resorts N ↑ 0.7% 4.4% Philip Morris N ↑ 3.3% 6.1% Freddie Mac N ↓ -1.2% -7.2%

Turning Point Brands OS ↓ -1.9% -3.3% Freddie Mac (Pfd) N ↓ -2.4% -4.1%

Energy Infrastruture Vector Group N ↑ 3.6% -2.7%

Baker Hughes N ↓ -2.1% -6.2% Home Health Reimbursement

Cheniere Energy N ↓ -0.2% -0.8% Space Force Addus HomeCare N ↑ 4.2% 8.7%

Fluor N ↑ 1.1% -0.4% Aerojet Rocketdyne OS ↓ -5.1% -9.9% Amedisys OS ↑ 4.0% 3.2%

Halliburton N ↓ -2.7% -2.2% Boeing OS ↓ -8.2% -9.6% Chemed N ↑ 0.1% 0.0%

Quanta Services OB ↑ 3.6% 6.4% Lockheed Martin OS ↓ -2.4% -4.5% LHC Group N ↑ 4.4% 2.6%

Schlumberger N ↓ -0.5% -5.4% Northrop Grumman OS ↓ -3.5% -6.7%

October 19, 2019

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Performance (Policy Theme | Stock)

Defense Spending OB | OS Change 1 Week QTD Trade - China & I.P. Theft Trade - NAFTA

AAR Corp. OB ↓ -2.7% -3.4% Advanced Micro Devices N ↑ 4.1% 6.8% American Axle OB ↑ 4.8% 1.1%

Aerojet Rocketdyne OS ↓ -5.1% -9.9% AGCO Corp. N ↑ 0.1% -2.3% Aptiv PLC OB ↑ 3.1% 1.8%

AeroVironment N ↑ 2.6% 8.0% Atlas Air Worldwide OS ↑ 3.9% -10.3% BorgWarner OB ↑ 4.1% 5.6%

Air Transport Services N ↑ 4.3% -2.7% Broadcom N ↑ 2.1% 3.9% Brown-Forman Corporation Class BN ↑ 1.2% 1.5%

Amedisys OS ↑ 4.0% 3.2% Caterpillar OB ↑ 1.8% 3.5% Constellation Brands N ↑ 2.0% -4.9%

Boeing OS ↓ -8.2% -9.6% CNH Industrial N ↑ 0.2% 5.9% Fluor N ↑ 1.1% -0.4%

Booz Allen Hamilton OB ↓ -2.2% -1.5% Deere & Company OB ↑ 1.7% 3.1% Ford Motor Company N ↑ 5.8% 1.4%

BWX Technologies N ↑ 0.9% -1.5% Expeditors N ↓ -0.6% -0.5% General Motors Company N ↑ 1.7% -3.5%

CACI International N ↓ -1.9% -2.5% IBM OS ↓ -6.1% -7.8% Kansas City Southern OB ↑ 8.8% 9.2%

Curtiss-Wright N ↓ -2.0% -2.9% Intel N ↓ -1.4% -0.3% Magna International OB ↑ 3.0% 0.2%

Ducommun OS ↓ -4.8% -7.2% Las Vegas Sands N ↓ -0.2% -0.5% Molson Coors Brewing N ↑ 1.6% -0.9%

FLIR Systems N ↓ -0.2% 0.6% Matson N ↑ 3.1% 1.1% Quanta Services OB ↑ 3.6% 6.4%

General Dynamics OS ↓ -2.9% -4.5% Micron N ↓ -3.6% 1.4% Union Pacific N ↑ 0.1% -0.3%

Harris OS ↓ -5.2% -5.1% NVIDIA OB ↑ 2.4% 9.4% Whirlpool Corporation OB ↑ 1.8% 1.7%

HEICO OB ↓ -2.8% -4.7% Qorvo OB ↑ 0.3% 4.7%

Hexcel OB ↓ -1.8% -7.3% QUALCOMM N ↑ 1.3% 1.8% Education

Huntington Ingalls N ↓ -0.8% -0.8% Rexford Industrial OB ↑ 2.2% 5.5% Adtalem Global OS ↓ -0.4% -5.9%

Kratos Defense N ↑ 1.8% 3.0% Skyworks Solutions OB ↑ 2.8% 10.8% American Public Education OS ↓ -2.7% -2.8%

Leidos OB ↓ -1.9% -5.0% Star Bulk Carriers OB ↓ -0.8% 9.2% Bright Horizons OS ↓ -3.3% -1.9%

Lockheed Martin OS ↓ -2.4% -4.5% Texas Instruments N ↓ -0.5% 0.2% Career Education OS ↓ -4.6% -8.6%

ManTech Intl. N ↓ -1.1% -3.1% Wynn Resorts N ↑ 0.7% 4.4% Grand Canyon Education OS ↓ -5.3% -4.2%

Mercury Systems OB ↓ -5.0% -11.5% K12 OS ↓ -3.7% -6.3%

Moog N ↑ 1.1% 3.1% Value Based Reimbursement Laureate Education OS ↓ -0.4% -6.2%

National Presto OS ↓ -3.3% -8.9% Allscripts Healthcare OB ↑ 2.5% -1.1% Strategic Education OS ↓ -6.7% -4.4%

Northrop Grumman OS ↓ -3.5% -6.7% Cerner N ↑ 0.3% -0.6%

OSI Systems OS ↑ 1.4% -3.2% Evolent Health N ↑ 8.6% 3.8% White House Drug Plan

Perspecta N ↓ -1.4% -1.7% Omnicell OB ↑ 2.3% 5.3% Allergan OB ↑ 2.7% 3.2%

Raytheon OB ↑ 0.5% 1.8% Tabula Rasa OS ↓ -4.8% -11.0% Eli Lilly OS ↑ 0.3% -2.9%

RBC Bearings N ↑ 1.9% -1.8% Teladoc Health N ↑ 2.6% 2.2% Gilead Sciences N ↑ 1.4% 2.4%

Science Applications OB ↓ -3.8% -6.9% Vocera N ↓ -1.7% -1.9% Mallinckrodt N ↑ 15.7% 10.4%

Textron N ↓ -5.8% -6.0% Mylan OS ↓ -3.0% -7.3%

TransDigm N ↑ 0.3% 1.1% ACA Pfizer N ↑ 1.0% 1.5%

Woodward N ↓ -0.1% -0.6% Anthem N ↑ 5.0% 3.9% Teva Pharmaceutical N ↑ 8.7% 9.0%

Centene N ↑ 5.9% 8.4% Vertex N ↑ 2.2% 4.0%

Opioid Crisis eHealth OS ↑ 6.6% -10.6%

AmerisourceBergen OB ↑ 9.4% 8.9% Encompass Health OB ↑ 4.0% 5.5% Local Media

Cardinal Health OB ↑ 9.8% 9.2% Ensign Group N ↑ 5.0% -5.5% E. W. Scripps N ↑ 1.4% -0.7%

Endo International OB ↑ 31.6% 51.9% HCA Healthcare N ↑ 2.7% 2.7% Gray Television N ↑ 4.9% 0.6%

Insys Therapeutics N ↑ 10.0% -38.9% Humana N ↑ 8.6% 13.1% Meredith N ↑ 7.3% 0.2%

Johnson & Johnson OS ↓ -2.8% -1.3% Masimo N ↑ 1.7% -0.6% Nexstar Media N ↓ -1.8% -5.1%

Mallinckrodt N ↑ 15.7% 10.4% Molina Healthcare N ↑ 8.4% 12.0% Sinclair Broadcast N ↑ 2.6% -1.5%

McKesson OB ↑ 13.0% 11.4% Universal Health N ↓ 0.0% -1.8% TEGNA OB ↑ 3.8% 1.4%

Mylan OS ↓ -3.0% -7.3% WellCare Health OB ↑ 3.8% 5.9%

Teva Pharmaceutical N ↑ 8.7% 9.0%

October 19, 2019

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Page 13: Watch our CIO explain how to use this report …...-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 8 8 9 9 Overbought Oversold Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S

Performance (Policy Theme | Stock)

IMO 2020 OB | OS Change 1 Week QTD Uranium Gun Stocks

Ardmore Shipping OB ↑ 2.3% 33.3% Cameco N ↓ -2.0% -3.3% American Outdoor Brands N ↓ -0.9% 16.7%

DHT Holdings OB ↓ -3.7% 16.9% Denison Mines N ↓ -0.5% 6.4% Axon Enterprise OS ↓ -4.9% -11.0%

Euronav NV OB ↓ -1.0% 22.0% Energy Fuels N ↓ -3.0% 0.0% Olin N ↓ -4.1% -2.8%

Frontline Ltd. OB ↓ -6.6% 17.4% Ur-Energy N ↓ -7.4% -3.9% Ruger OB ↑ 1.4% 7.8%

International Seaways OB ↓ -0.4% 31.7% Vista Outdoor N ↑ 0.3% 2.3%

Kirby N ↑ 0.9% -1.3%

Nordic American Tanker OB ↓ -3.1% 85.2%

Scorpio Tankers OB ↑ 0.4% 17.2%

Teekay Tankers OB ↑ 7.6% 63.1%

World Fuel Services OB ↑ 3.0% 0.6%

October 19, 2019

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Important Information © Active Weighting Advisors LLC ("AWA") is an SEC-registered investment adviser that manages ETFs under the brand name EventShares Funds. The opinions expressed herein arethose of AWA as of the published date and are subject to change. It is provided as general market commentary only, and it does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation orparticular needs of any one client. The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. AWA is not soliciting any action based on thisdocument. Investors should consult with their own financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. Theinformation herein was obtained from various sources, which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The policy themes and baskets mentioned herein areunmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Returns assume no management, transaction or other expenses and no reinvestment of dividends, interest and/or capital gains. Pastperformance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. AWA disclaims responsibility for updating information.In addition, AWA disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

October 19, 2019

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About EventShares

EventShares is an investment management firm dedicated to translating

legislation and regulation coming out of Washington D.C. into real world

investment solutions. The firm's goal is to provide its clients with attractive, long-

term results by following a disciplined and differentiated approach to investing.

Additional information at www.EventShares.com.

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