IMPROVING RISK IMPROVING RISK COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION

BETTY HEARN MORROWBETTY HEARN MORROW

MAY 19, 2010MAY 19, 2010

MARRIOTT CITY CENTERMARRIOTT CITY CENTER

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAHSALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

SOCIAL APPLICATIONS FOR ENHANCED SOCIAL APPLICATIONS FOR ENHANCED READINESS (SAFER) PROGRAM – READINESS (SAFER) PROGRAM – WESTERN REGION CONFERENCEWESTERN REGION CONFERENCE

What makes people What makes people decide to respond to decide to respond to a warning message?a warning message?

Believe it is realBelieve it is real

Fear for personal safetyFear for personal safety

Fear for safety of loved onesFear for safety of loved ones

Knowledge about how to respondKnowledge about how to respond

Resources to respondResources to respond

05/19/10

2

LEVEL OF RISK IS UNACCEPTABLE AND LEVEL OF RISK IS UNACCEPTABLE AND THEY CAN DO SOMETHING TO REDUCE ITTHEY CAN DO SOMETHING TO REDUCE IT

What makes people What makes people not respond to a not respond to a warning message?warning message?

Didn’t hear itDidn’t hear it

Didn’t believe itDidn’t believe it

Didn’t understand itDidn’t understand it

Didn’t think it pertained to themDidn’t think it pertained to them

Didn’t know what to doDidn’t know what to do

Weren’t able to do itWeren’t able to do it

05/19/10

3

05/19/10

4

238 Deaths 238 Deaths

Did they understand the Did they understand the forecast?forecast?

05/19/10

5

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

Why?Why?Surge forecast not emphasized enough?Surge forecast not emphasized enough?

Too much emphasis on wind?Too much emphasis on wind?

Lack of understanding of surge potential?Lack of understanding of surge potential?

Disbelief?Disbelief?

Lack of experience?Lack of experience?

False experience?False experience?

Didn’t think it applied to them?Didn’t think it applied to them?

??

05/19/10

6

Katrina Katrina Surge Surge

Message Message LostLost

How can the level of risk How can the level of risk be be communicated to communicated to promote promote appropriate appropriate action?action?

05/19/10

8

Prepare?

Shelter in Place?

Evacuate?

NOAA Coastal Services NOAA Coastal Services CenterCenterRISK COMMUNICATION RISK COMMUNICATION PROJECTPROJECT

Literature ReviewLiterature Review

Best Practices InterviewsBest Practices Interviews

05/19/10

9

Complex conceptComplex concept

difficult to communicate difficult to communicate

in ways that are convincing in ways that are convincing

and lead to good decisions and lead to good decisions

05/19/10

10

RISK:RISK:

Hurricane Ike and GalvestonHurricane Ike and Galveston

Hurricane FloydHurricane Floyd

Concept of Risk:Concept of Risk:Social ConstructionSocial Construction

05/19/10

11

KnowledgeKnowledge is important, is important,

but we weigh evidence but we weigh evidence

from from experienceexperience moremore

05/19/10

12

Perceived Risk ≠ Perceived Risk ≠ Hazard x Exposure x ProbabilityHazard x Exposure x Probability

Fear often does not Fear often does not

reflect object reality reflect object reality

as defined by as defined by expertsexperts

05/19/10

13

““the risks that kill you are not necessarily the the risks that kill you are not necessarily the risks that anger and frighten you”risks that anger and frighten you”

Peter Peter SandmanSandman

Risk = Hazards + OutrageRisk = Hazards + Outrage

Perception is everything!

Perception is everything!

Perceived risk Perceived risk is the same as real riskis the same as real risk

05/19/10

14

Several theories Several theories attempt to explain attempt to explain how risk perceptions how risk perceptions are developed:are developed:

Psychometric ModelsPsychometric Models

Cultural Risk TheoryCultural Risk Theory

Social AmplificationSocial Amplification

Mental ModelsMental Models

05/19/10

15

Coping with a Coping with a Complex Complex World…World…

Try to Find PatternsTry to Find Patterns

““What do I know that will What do I know that will help me understand this?”help me understand this?”

05/19/10

16

Coping with a Coping with a Complex Complex World…World…

05/19/10

17

Note: Even forecasters use heuristics - Doswell III, Charles A. (2004) Weather Forecasting by Humans – Heuristics and Decision Making. Weather and Forecasting 19:1115-1126

Use Heuristics (short cuts) such as:Use Heuristics (short cuts) such as:

Optimism BiasOptimism Bias““Won’t happen to me”Won’t happen to me”

Availability Availability ““Hasn’t happened to Hasn’t happened to

me”me”

Weighing the Weighing the chances…chances…

Decisions made about risk Decisions made about risk

are largely insensitive to are largely insensitive to

changes in probabilitychanges in probability

05/19/10

18

Emotions play a major roleEmotions play a major role

What Are the Myths?What Are the Myths?

What incorrect messages are out What incorrect messages are out there?there?

05/19/10

19

Keep a window open during hurricanes, tornadoes..

Keep a window open during hurricanes, tornadoes..

Highway underpasses offer good

Highway underpasses offer good

refuge from tornadoesrefuge from tornadoes

Tornadoes don’t cross rivers

Tornadoes don’t cross rivers

Lightning never strikes the

Lightning never strikes the

same place twice

same place twice

Others?Others?

New York doesn’t get hurricanesNew York doesn’t get hurricanes

If the water starts rising, I’ll just leaveIf the water starts rising, I’ll just leave

First Acknowledge Their Current ViewpointFirst Acknowledge Their Current Viewpoint

““When talking to people who are When talking to people who are misinformed, there’s a two-step process misinformed, there’s a two-step process for reeducating them. for reeducating them.

Step 1 is to Step 1 is to validatevalidate that it’s reasonable that it’s reasonable to think that. to think that.

And then on step 2, And then on step 2, take them on a take them on a journeyjourney from their current opinion to the from their current opinion to the one you want them to hold.”one you want them to hold.”

Peter SandmanPeter Sandman

05/19/10

20

Just Because It Just Because It CAN Happen, CAN Happen,

Doesn’t Mean it WILL Doesn’t Mean it WILL ……

USUALLY a False AlarmUSUALLY a False Alarm

Creates Complacency Creates Complacency

05/19/10

21

In Fact, It Usually Doesn’t!In Fact, It Usually Doesn’t!

05/19/10

22

What Message Did That Give?What Message Did That Give?

05/19/10

23

What Factors Tend toWhat Factors Tend toMake Risk Unacceptable?Make Risk Unacceptable?

RARE or UnfamiliarRARE or Unfamiliar

EVENTEVENT vs. diffused over timevs. diffused over time

IMPOSED vs. voluntaryIMPOSED vs. voluntary

Not under individual’s controlNot under individual’s control

05/19/10

24

What Makes Risk What Makes Risk Unacceptable?Unacceptable?

Unfairly distributedUnfairly distributed

Affects childrenAffects children

Man-made hazard vs. natural Man-made hazard vs. natural hazardhazard

05/19/10

25

RISK COMMUNICATION MODELRISK COMMUNICATION MODEL

ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND CAPACITY TO ACTABILITY TO UNDERSTAND CAPACITY TO ACT

INVOLVEMENTINVOLVEMENT DESIRE FOR DESIRE FOR

OR OR INTEREST INFORMATION INTEREST INFORMATION

RELEVANCE TO STAKEHOLDER INTENTION TO ACTRELEVANCE TO STAKEHOLDER INTENTION TO ACT

  

  

  

  

  

05/19/10

26

MESSAGE EVALUATIONMESSAGE EVALUATIONFACTORSFACTORS

MESSAGE EFFECTSMESSAGE EFFECTSFACTORSFACTORS

Adapted from Earle, T.C. and G. Cvetkovich. 1990. “The effects of involvement, relevance and ability on risk communication effectiveness. Pp. 271-89 in Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North Holland: Elsevier Science.

Effective risk communication requires in-depth knowledge

about the audience

Effective risk communication requires in-depth knowledge

about the audience

ValuesValues

NeedsNeeds

Interests Interests

ExperiencesExperiences

BarriersBarriers

Social NormsSocial Norms

05/19/10

27

NEED TO UNDERSTAND CONTEXTNEED TO UNDERSTAND CONTEXT

Conditions Under Which Decisions Are MadeConditions Under Which Decisions Are Made

How They Vary Among GroupsHow They Vary Among Groups

Weather-Related Risk May Be Least of Their Weather-Related Risk May Be Least of Their WorriesWorries

05/19/10

28

Community InvolvementCommunity InvolvementQuantitative surveysQuantitative surveysQualitative focus groupsQualitative focus groupsObservationsObservations

05/19/10

29

Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Tool

County Snapshots

05/19/10

30

Coastal Inundation ToolkitCoastal Inundation Toolkit

CanVis Visualization Software

NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource

www.csc.noaa.gov/inundation

05/19/10

31

PersonalizePersonalizeThe MessageThe Message

Many Messages TargetedTo Specific Groups

Many Messages TargetedTo Specific Groups

“To reach and influence audiences effectively, campaigns must be targeted on the basis of audiences’ interests, values, and current behavioral patterns.” Edward Maibach

05/19/10

32

Homeowners

Renters

Elderly

Families with children

Cultural groups

Youth

Multiple MessagesMultiple MessagesMultiple ChannelsMultiple Channels

05/19/10

33

Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf

Use of Technologies Survey Use of Technologies Survey Charleston, SC (2008)Charleston, SC (2008)

• 70% have cell phones70% have cell phones• 67% over age 65 have cell phones67% over age 65 have cell phones• 60% said they would use cell phone to contact family 60% said they would use cell phone to contact family

in emergencyin emergency• 56% under age 29 use texting56% under age 29 use texting• 6% over 65 used texting6% over 65 used texting

Multiple MessagesMultiple MessagesMultiple ChannelsMultiple Channels

05/19/10

34

Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf

Use of Technologies SurveyUse of Technologies SurveyCharleston, SC (2008)Charleston, SC (2008)

• 60% have computers in home (NSD related to age)60% have computers in home (NSD related to age)• 64% whites have computers in home64% whites have computers in home• 52% blacks have computers in home52% blacks have computers in home• 31% with income less than $20,000 know how to use 31% with income less than $20,000 know how to use

a computera computer• 23% have NOAA weather radio23% have NOAA weather radio

RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIESSTRATEGIES

05/19/10

35

High

Low

Low High

Source: Peter Sandman

OutrageManagement

CrisisCommunication

PrecautionAdvocacy

Know your audienceKnow your audience

Personalize the messagePersonalize the message

05/19/10

36

NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources:NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources:

• Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census DataMapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data

• Introduction to Conducting Focus GroupsIntroduction to Conducting Focus Groups

• Introduction to Survey Design & DeliveryIntroduction to Survey Design & Delivery

Appeal to their values, needs, social normsAppeal to their values, needs, social norms

Appeal to emotions, including fearAppeal to emotions, including fear

Have clear, concise, short messageHave clear, concise, short message

Use concrete examplesUse concrete examples

Use trusted messengersUse trusted messengers

Provide an action they can doProvide an action they can do

05/19/10

37

Some People Some People Are Risk Are Risk TakersTakers

GamblersGamblers

Thrill SeekersThrill Seekers

YouthYouth

Men!Men!

05/19/10

38

Morrow, Betty Hearn. 2009. Improving Coastal Risk Communication: Guidance from the Literature. Report prepared for NOAA’s Coastal Service Center, Charleston, SC. Available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/Risk_Behavior_&_Communication_Report.pdf.

Other NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources:

• Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data• Introduction to Conducting Focus Groups• Introduction to Survey Design & Delivery• Introduction to Stakeholder Participation• Stakeholder Engagement Strategies for Participatory Mapping

CanVis Visualization Software, NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource. Available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/inundation.

McKenzie-Mohr, Doug. Fostering Sustainable Behavior : Community-Based Social Marketing. Available at: www.cbsm.com

Earle, T.C. and G. Cvetkovich. 1990. “The Effects Of Involvement, Relevance And Ability On Risk Communication Effectiveness.” Pp. 271-89 in Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North Holland: Elsevier Science.

Sandman, Peter. Risk = Hazard + Outrage. www.psandman.com/index.htm

Mailbach, Edward C. and Roxanne Louiselle Parrott (eds). 1995. Designing Health Messages: Approaches from Communication Theory and Public Health Practice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Downloadable at: www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf.

RISK COMMUNICATION RESOURCES

Betty Morrow betty@bmorrow.com