Jay Lund Director, Center for Watershed Sciences

Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of California, Davis

CaliforniaWaterBlog.com

Water Challenges for California Agriculture

2

Outline

• Overview of California Water

• Drought

• Water Scarcity

• Delta

• Inevitable changes

What people know…

Water and People in California

4

Most annual rainfall variability in US

NOTES: Dots represent the coefficient of variation of total annual precipitation at weather stations for 1951-2008, Larger values have more year-to-year variability. SOURCE: Dettinger, M., F. Ralph, T. Das, P. Neiman, and D. Cayan (2011), “Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California,” Water, 3(2), 445-478.

Annual coefficient of variation

Drought

7

Drought in California 1) Large agricultural water

use (80% of human use) - 4 million irrigated hectares, $45 billion/yr

2) $2 trillion economy 3) Native ecosystems –

fish and birds 4) Major changes in

habitats, flows, species 5) Droughts lead to change

1. Water needs are always changing

2. Major water policy changes require droughts, floods, or lawsuits – benefits of drought

3. Every generation requires a threatening flood and a threatening drought – We’ve got one.

Droughts test, and spur progress

Sacramento Valley Precipitation

9

2014: 8th

driest in 106

years

10

San Joaquin Valley Precipitation

2015: 3rd

driest in 106

years

11

Tulare Basin Precipitation

2015: 3rd-4th driest in

106 years

12

Sierra Snowpack

A warm drought

Lowest snowpack on record

13

Reservoir levels

2015 Water Shortage & Changes in Groundwater

14

Region

2015 Water use changes (MAF) Surface Water

Groundwater

Net Delivery Shortage

Sacramento -2.29 1.19 -1.1 San Joaquin -1.84 1.40 -0.44 Tulare -4.57 3.41 -1.16 Central Coast and So. Cal.

-0.02 0.02 0.01

Total -8.72 6.02 -2.7

2015 Estimated Agricultural Drought Impacts Description Impact Base year Percent Drought water shortage (million acre-ft) 8.7 26.4 33%

Groundwater replacement (million acre-ft) 6.0 8.4 72%

Net water shortage (million acre-ft) 2.7 26.4 10%

Drought-related idle land (acres) 540,000 9 million* 6%

Crop revenue losses ($) $900 million $35 billion 2.6%

Dairy and livestock revenue losses ($) $350 million $12.4 billion 2.8%

Costs of additional pumping ($) $590 million $780 million 75.5%

Net revenue losses ($) $1.8 billion 45 billion rev. 4%

Total economic impact ($) $2.7 billion NA NA

Direct job losses (farm seasonal) 10,100 200,000# 5.1%

Total job losses 21,000 NA NA

* NASA-ARC estimate of normal Central Valley idle land is 1.2 million acres. # Total agriculture employment is about 412,000, of which 200,000 is farm production.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000Cumulative Irrigated Crop Area (Acres)

Cumulative Jobs and Revenues

Cumulative Jobs

Cumulative Revenues

Vegetables, H

orticulture & N

on-Tree Fruits

Vines

Subtropical Fruits

Alm

onds and Pistachios

Deciduous (O

rchards)

Processing Tomato

Other Field, Grain, and Feed Crops

Fresh Tomato + C

ucurbits

Onion + G

arlic

17

Innovations from this drought? 1. Groundwater management 2. Better water accounting 3. Better water markets 4. Lower targets for urban water use – ripple

effects for conservation, finance, planning 5. Higher agricultural water prices – and less

agricultural water use 6. Better state agency coordination? 7. Others?

Water Scarcity Groundwater? Ecosystems?

And… High crop values, trees & vines, and urban growth

19

Groundwater Problems Quantity • Overdraft - SGMA • Conjunctive use • Droughts

Quality • Salinity • Nitrate • Other…

20

Implications from Groundwater • Reduce irrigated agriculture in S. Central Valley,

and some other places at times

• More conjunctive use of surface and groundwater

• More recharge of conserved and surplus water

• Higher water prices

• Some costs from water quality, especially nitrate

• SGMA as a promising framework for addressing groundwater problems more effectively?

21

Need to reconcile ecosystems and agriculture

Wetlands California’s freshwater fishes are losing

Extinct

Special Concern

Listed

OK

Salmonid Habitat

22

Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

http://sfbay.wr.usgs.gov/access/yearbook.html

http://sfbay.wr.usgs.gov/access/yearbook.html

23

Who depends on the Delta? • S. California – 30% of

water supplies • Bay Area – 30% of

supplies directly, another 40% upstream

• Southern Central Valley – 4 maf directly and 4 maf upstream

• Delta farmers – 1+ maf • Sacramento Valley –

4+ maf taken upstream; water sales to south

The Delta

24

Delta Island Subsidence

25

Problems of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

• Physical instability • Land subsidence • Sea level rise • Floods • Earthquakes

• Ecosystem instability • Habitat alteration • Invasive species

• Prohibitive costs for maintaining all islands

• Worsening water quality for agric. & urban users

26

Delta of Tomorrow Will be Different, No Matter What We Do

• Earthquake and flood risks Large bodies of open water and higher sea level

• Losses of 15-20 islands where repair costs prohibitive

• Major changes in:

• Water supply

• Water quality

• Delta land use

Based on economic value of land and assets, many

islands not worth repairing after flooding (blue)

27

Three linked Delta problems

• Levees

• Water conveyance

• Ecosystem habitat

Portfolio-based Management Supply

• Reoperation • Reservoirs • Conveyance

• Conjunctive use • Expand conveyance & storage • Urban reuse • New water treatment

• Wastewater reuse • Ocean Desalination • Contaminated aquifers

• Stormwater capture • Source protection 28

Demand and Allocation • Agricultural water use

efficiencies and reductions • Urban water use efficiencies

and reductions • Ecosystem demand

management • Recreation water use

efficiencies

Incentive policies • Pricing • Markets • Subsidies, taxes • Education

Resistance is Futile 1) Flooding in parts of the Delta 2) Reduced Delta diversions 3) Less irrigated land in the southern Central Valley 4) Less urban water use, more reuse & storm capture 5) Some native species unsustainable in the wild 6) Funding solutions mostly local and regional 7) State’s leverage is mostly regulatory, not funding 8) Nitrate groundwater contamination is inevitable 9) Groundwater will be managed more tightly 10) The Salton Sink will be largely restored We cannot drought-proof, but we can manage better.

30

Conclusions 1) 4th year of drought, so far similar to

droughts seen 1-2 times per generation

2) California is doing amazingly well, given the magnitude of the drought

3) Stay between complacency and panic 4) Integrated portfolios are the future

5) High value crop production should be less affected

6) Droughts and floods remind us to change, and prepare.

Suggested Readings

Hanak et al. (2011) Managing California’s Water, PPIC.org

Hanak et al. (2010) Myths of California Water, PPIC.org

Hundley (1992), The Great Thirst, UC Press.

Kelley (1989), Battling the Inland Sea, UC Press.

Lund et al. (2010) Comparing Futures for the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta, UC Press

Pisani (1983), From Family Farms to Agribusiness, UC Press

Mavensnotebook.com

CaliforniaWaterBlog.com

32

Will next year be dry? (from historical data, 1906-2013)

Probability next yearSacramento Valley San Joaquin Valley

Next Year Historical Critical now Historical Critical nowCritical 0.13 0.29 0.18 0.55Dry 0.21 0.35 0.14 0Below Normal 0.18 0.07 0.16 0.15C,D 0.34 0.64 0.32 0.55C,D, BN 0.52 0.71 0.48 0.7AN, W 0.48 0.29 0.52 0.3

Sac Conditional Probabilities

Sac valley droughtEventC-CC-C,DC-C,D,BNC,D-C,DC,D-C,D,BNC,D,BN-C,D,BNCDBN

C14sum4910182535142320

D23% of all years0.0370.0830.0930.1670.2310.3240.1300.2130.185

BN20% of condition years0.2860.6430.7140.4860.6760.614

other51Likelihood ratio2.2041.8761.3531.4201.2801.163

YearEventC-CC-C,DC-C,D,BNC,D-C,DC,D-C,D,BNC,D,BN-C,D,BNENSO Average Index (Dec-April)

190626.7111.76W000000

190733.714.07W000000

190814.777.73BN000000Probability next year

190930.6812.1W000000Sacramento ValleySan Joaquin Valley

191020.129.38W000000Next YearHistoricalCritical nowHistoricalCritical now

191126.3811.74W000000Critical0.130.290.180.55

191211.416.71BN000001Dry0.210.350.140

191312.856.24D000000Below Normal0.180.070.160.15

191427.8110.92W000000C,D0.340.640.320.55

191523.8610.99W000000C,D, BN0.520.710.480.7

191624.1410.83W000000AN, W0.480.290.520.3

191717.268.83AN000000

191810.996.19D000011

191915.667BN000001SJ Valley droughtEventC-CC-C,DC-C,D,BNC,D-C,DC,D-C,D,BNC,D,BN-C,D,BNCDBNC,DC,D,BN

19209.25.15C000000C20sum111114152031201618

192123.89.2AN000000D16% of all years0.10185185190.10185185190.12962962960.13888888890.18518518520.2870370370.17699115040.14159292040.15929203540.31858407080.4778761062

192217.988.97AN000000BN18% of condition years0.550.550.70.41666666670.55555555560.5740740741

192313.217.06BN000001other59Likelihood ratio3.10751.72638888891.46481481481.30787037041.16255144031.201303155

19245.743.87C011111

192515.996.39D000111

192611.765.75D000000

192723.839.52W000000

192816.768.27AN000000

19298.45.22C011111

193013.525.9D000111

19316.13.66C011111

193213.125.48D000111

19338.944.63C111111

19348.634.07C001011

193516.596.98BN000001

193617.357.75BN000001

193713.336.87BN000000

193831.8312.62W000000

19398.185.58D000000

194022.438.88AN000000

194127.0811.47W000000

194225.2411.27W000000

194321.139.77W000000

194410.436.35D000011

194515.066.8BN000001

194617.627.7BN000001

194710.395.61D000011

194815.757.12BN000001

194911.976.09D000011ENSO Average Index (Dec-April)

195014.446.62BN000000-1.30

195122.959.18AN000000-0.60

195228.612.38W0000000.43

195320.099.55W0000000.57

195417.438.51AN0000000.43

195510.986.14D000000-0.70

195629.8911.38W000000-0.83

195714.897.83AN0000000.07

195829.7112.16W0000001.53

195912.056.75BN0000010.57

196013.066.2D000111-0.17

196111.975.68D0000110.00

196215.116.65BN000000-0.27

196322.999.63W000000-0.17

196410.926.41D0000000.60

196525.6410.15W000000-0.30

196612.957.16BN0000001.13

196724.0610.2W000000-0.40

196813.647.24BN000000-0.70

196926.9811.05W0000001.07

197024.0610.4W0000000.47

197122.5710.37W000000-1.20

197213.437.29BN000000-0.27

197320.058.58AN0000001.20

197432.512.99W000000-1.57

197519.239.35W000000-0.53

19768.25.29C111111-1.10

19775.123.11C0000000.50

197823.928.65AN0000000.43

197912.416.67BN0000000.07

198022.339.04AN0000000.40

198111.16.21D000000-0.50

198233.4112.76W0000000.00

198337.6815.29W0000001.87

198422.3510W000000-0.37

198511.046.47D000000-0.87

198625.839.96W000000-0.37

19879.275.86D0001111.23

19889.234.65C0111110.47

198914.826.13D000111-1.43

19909.264.81C1111110.20

19918.444.21C1111110.23

19928.874.06C0000001.50

199322.218.54AN0000000.33

19947.815.02C0000000.13

199534.5512.89W0000000.80

199622.2910.26W000000-0.77

199725.4210.82W000000-0.33

199831.413.31W0000001.80

199921.199.8W000000-1.27

200018.98.94AN000000-1.47

20019.815.76D000111-0.60

200214.66.35D000000-0.03

200319.318.21AN0000000.77

200416.047.51BN0000000.20

200518.558.49AN0000000.43

200632.0913.2W000000-0.70

200710.286.19D0001110.30

200810.285.16C011111-1.40

200913.025.78D000011-0.67

201016.017.08BN0000001.30

201125.2110.54W000000-1.17

201211.836.89BN000001-0.67

201311.865.73D000111-0.53

2014C

SJ Conditional Probabilities

SJ Valley droughtEventC-CC-C,DC-C,D,BNC,D-C,DC,D-C,D,BNC,D,BN-C,D,BNCDBNC,DC,D,BN

C20sum111114152031201618

D16% of all years0.1020.1020.1300.1390.1850.2870.1770.1420.1590.3190.478

BN18% of condition years0.5500.5500.7000.4170.5560.574

other59Likelihood ratio3.1081.7261.4651.3081.1631.201

YearEventC-CC-C,DC-C,D,BNC,D-C,DC,D-C,D,BNC,D,BN-C,D,BN

19019.394.6W000000

19025.083.41AN000000

19035.713.45AN000000

19047.644.31W000000

19055.33.24AN000000

190612.436.7W000000

190711.826.2W000000

19083.322.4D000000

19098.974.59W000000

19106.643.65AN000000

191111.485.97W000000

19123.212.55BN000001

191332C000000

19148.694.35W000000

19156.44.1W000000

19168.384.65W000000

19176.664.13W000000

19184.593.08BN000001

19194.092.62BN000001

19204.092.64BN000000

19215.93.23AN000000

19227.684.54W000000

19235.513.55AN000000

19241.51.42C001011

19255.512.93BN000001

19263.492.3D000000

19276.53.56AN000000

19284.372.63BN000001

19292.842C111111

19303.252.02C111111

19311.661.2C000000

19326.633.41AN000000

19333.342.44D000111

19342.281.44C000000

19356.413.56AN000000

19366.493.74AN000000

19376.533.9W000000

193811.245.89W000000

19392.92.2D000000

19406.593.36AN000000

19417.934.43W000000

19427.384.44W000000

19437.284.03W000000

19443.922.76BN000000

19456.63.59AN000000

19465.733.3AN000000

19473.422.18D000011

19484.212.7BN000001

19493.792.53BN000001

19504.652.85BN000000

19517.253.14AN000000

19529.35.17W000000

19534.353.03BN000001

19544.32.72BN000001

19553.52.3D000000

19569.674.46W000000

19574.293.01BN000000

19588.364.77W000000

19592.982.21D000111

19602.961.85C111111

19612.11.38C001011

19625.613.07BN000000

19636.243.57AN000000

19643.142.19D000000

19658.133.81W000000

19663.982.51BN000000

19679.985.25W000000

19682.942.21D000000

196912.296.09W000000

19705.613.18AN000000

19714.912.89BN000001

19723.572.16D000000

19736.473.5AN000000

19747.123.9W000000

19756.183.85W000000

19761.971.57C111111

19771.050.84C000000

19789.654.58W000000

19795.983.67AN000000

19809.474.73W000000

19813.222.44D000000

198211.415.45W000000

198315.017.22W000000

19847.133.69AN000000

19853.62.4D000000

19869.54.31W000000

19872.081.86C111111

19882.481.48C111111

19893.561.96C111111

19902.461.51C111111

19913.21.96C111111

19922.581.56C000000

19938.384.2W000000

19942.542.05C000000

199512.325.95W000000

19967.224.12W000000

19979.514.13W000000

199810.435.65W000000

19995.913.59AN000000

20005.93.38AN000000

20013.182.2D000111

20024.062.34D000011

20034.872.81BN000001

20043.812.21D000000

20059.214.75W000000

200610.445.9W000000

20072.511.97C111111

20083.492.06C001011

20094.942.72BN000000

20106.083.55AN000000

201110.995.58W000000

20122.762.18D000111

20133.051.71C111111

2014C

Water year index data

..........Sacramento Valley..........].........San Joaquin Valley..........]Sac Valley

.....Runoff (maf).....]..WY Index..].....Runoff (maf).....]..WY Index..]

WYOct-MarApr-JulWYsumIndexYr-typeOct-MarApr-JulWYsumIndexYr-type

19013.495.589.394.6W

19021.123.815.083.41AN

19031.454.135.713.45AN

19041.965.377.644.31W

19051.823.365.33.24AN

190612.5712.9226.7111.76W2.539.2412.436.7W

190718.9613.4533.714.07W3.677.6111.826.2W

19088.295.614.777.73BN0.982.173.322.4D

190920.618.9830.6812.1W2.855.918.974.59W

191013.126.1120.129.38W2.873.626.643.65AN

191112.2713.1226.3811.74W3.637.5211.485.97W

19124.845.6511.416.71BN0.542.573.212.55BN

19135.726.2912.856.24D0.442.3432C

191416.7210.0827.8110.92W2.725.678.694.35W

191511.4111.4223.8610.99W1.294.956.44.1W

191614.258.8924.1410.83W2.675.58.384.65W

19177.259.1417.268.83AN1.664.846.664.13W

19185.274.8910.996.19D1.073.44.593.08BN

19198.126.7715.667BN1.062.994.092.62BN

19203.634.919.25.15C0.723.294.092.64BN

192115.477.5223.89.2AN1.973.845.93.23AN

19226.6310.5717.988.97AN1.515.997.684.54W

19236.216.2713.217.06BN1.393.955.513.55AN

19243.271.945.743.87C0.451.031.51.42C

19258.766.5115.996.39D1.453.935.512.93BN

19266.374.7911.765.75D0.892.563.492.3D

192714.348.7523.839.52W1.84.566.53.56AN

192810.245.8616.768.27AN1.692.644.372.63BN

192943.848.45.22C0.522.292.842C

19308.244.6513.525.9D0.762.443.252.02C

19313.522.096.13.66C0.461.181.661.2C

19326.286.2413.125.48D1.794.696.633.41AN

19333.734.668.944.63C0.492.773.342.44D

19345.682.458.634.07C0.981.262.281.44C

19356.279.6916.596.98BN1.265.036.413.56AN

193610.326.4117.357.75BN24.386.493.74AN

19375.57.2413.336.87BN1.784.666.533.9W

193817.9612.9331.8312.62W3.587.3311.245.89W

19394.563.048.185.58D11.832.92.2D

194014.786.9322.438.88AN2.494.046.593.36AN

194116.329.7727.0811.47W2.225.517.934.43W

194214.339.9325.2411.27W1.935.287.384.44W

194313.376.921.139.77W2.864.287.284.03W

19444.814.9310.436.35D0.872.973.922.76BN

19458.425.9215.066.8BN2.074.376.63.59AN

194610.895.9717.627.7BN1.993.655.733.3AN

19475.93.8310.395.61D1.262.123.422.18D

19485.399.5515.757.12BN0.563.584.212.7BN

19495.735.5911.976.09D0.623.123.792.53BN

19507.016.7214.446.62BN1.023.574.652.85BN

195116.775.4222.959.18AN4.352.837.253.14AN

195213.8613.6828.612.38W2.186.849.35.17W

195310.848.2620.099.55W1.073.184.353.03BN

19549.746.8117.438.51AN1.13.164.32.72BN

19555.195.0710.986.14D0.782.673.52.3D

195620.328.629.8911.38W4.145.299.674.46W

19577.726.2914.897.83AN1.023.194.293.01BN

195816.3712.2429.7112.16W1.676.48.364.77W

19597.43.8412.056.75BN0.981.852.982.21D

19607.724.6513.066.2D0.852.072.961.85C

19616.874.3911.975.68D0.541.52.11.38C

19628.176.2315.116.65BN1.264.245.613.07BN

196312.0110.0922.999.63W1.684.376.243.57AN

19645.94.3710.926.41D0.932.143.142.19D

196516.598.1325.6410.15W3.24.558.133.81W

19667.424.8412.957.16BN1.492.423.982.51BN

196712.1411.0124.0610.2W2.467.099.985.25W

19688.664.1213.647.24BN1.021.852.942.21D

196915.3310.6826.9811.05W3.848.1412.296.09W

197018.874.3524.0610.4W2.552.965.613.18AN

197112.718.922.5710.37W1.563.234.912.89BN

19727.615.0213.437.29BN1.252.223.572.16D

197312.86.3820.058.58AN1.874.486.473.5AN

197421.699.7832.512.99W2.434.537.123.9W

19759.248.9519.239.35W1.374.656.183.85W

19764.632.758.25.29C0.781.071.971.57C

19772.491.935.123.11C0.220.81.050.84C

197814.98.1223.928.65AN2.576.59.654.58W

19796.065.6412.416.67BN1.873.995.983.67AN

198015.49622.339.04AN3.745.419.474.73W

19816.813.6311.16.21D0.852.293.222.44D

198220.5611.8233.4112.76W3.78711.415.45W

198322.7513.6637.6815.29W5.428.7315.017.22W

198415.985.5222.3510W3.513.487.133.69AN

19856.24411.046.47D1.112.413.62.4D

198619.455.4525.839.96W4.364.929.54.31W

19875.852.89.275.86D0.551.482.081.86C

19885.782.99.234.65C0.861.552.481.48C

19899.035.0714.826.13D1.072.423.561.96C

19904.943.729.264.81C0.831.592.461.51C

19913.94.018.444.21C0.562.573.21.96C

19925.412.938.874.06C0.861.662.581.56C

199312.448.9822.218.54AN2.495.658.384.2W

19944.552.737.815.02C0.661.82.542.05C

199519.8313.634.5512.89W3.678.0112.325.95W

199613.058.3722.2910.26W2.574.517.224.12W

199720.224.3925.4210.82W5.753.599.514.13W

199817.6512.5431.413.31W2.827.1110.435.65W

199912.977.2621.199.8W1.93.855.913.59AN

200012.065.9618.98.94AN1.983.785.93.38AN

20015.643.469.815.76D0.922.233.182.2D

20029.324.5714.66.35D1.272.754.062.34D

200310.717.7419.318.21AN1.253.494.872.81BN

200410.954.416.047.51BN1.512.253.812.21D

20058.49.2818.558.49AN2.736.289.214.75W

200618.0613.0932.0913.2W2.867.3710.445.9W

20076.593.0410.286.19D0.991.462.511.97C

20085.93.8210.285.16C0.992.453.492.06C

20097.055.313.025.78D1.513.354.942.72BN

20107.457.7816.017.08BN1.434.536.083.55AN

201112.6811.5325.2110.54W3.686.910.995.58W

20125.695.4611.836.89BN0.831.862.762.18D

20138.23.0211.865.73D1.331.673.051.71C

2014CC

ENSO Correlations

ENSO Average IndexSac mafSJ mafarSUMMARY OUTPUT - Sacramento Valley outflowSUMMARY OUTPUT - SJ basin

-1.3014.444.651950

-0.6022.957.251951Regression StatisticsRegression Statistics

0.4328.69.31952Multiple R0.0994969517Multiple R0.1767241302

0.5720.094.351953R Square0.0098996434R Square0.0312314182

0.4317.434.31954Adjusted R Square-0.00633151Adjusted R Square0.0156061185

-0.7010.983.51955Standard Error7.9986409808Standard Error3.1698409931

-0.8329.899.671956Observations63Observations64

0.0714.894.291957

1.5329.718.361958ANOVAANOVA

0.5712.052.981959dfSSMSFSignificance FdfSSMSFSignificance F

-0.1713.062.961960Regression139.02137576839.0213757680.60991620070.4378397723Regression120.083449317420.08344931741.99877242660.1624283453

0.0011.972.11961Residual613902.673709946363.9782575401Residual62622.969299120110.0478919213

-0.2715.115.611962Total623941.6950857143Total63643.0527484375

-0.1722.996.241963

0.6010.923.141964CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

-0.3025.648.131965Intercept18.45304319951.007882715418.30872076451.8130631480343E-2616.437657150920.468429248116.437657150920.4684292481Intercept5.89525789470.396561472614.86593706814.11866157327415E-225.10254280636.68797298315.10254280636.6879729831

1.1312.953.981966Correlations-1.30.94635729741.21176959340.78097131880.4378397723-1.47672576123.3694403561-1.47672576123.3694403561ENSO Average Index0.66659330070.47149736491.4137794830.1624283453-0.2759165021.6091031034-0.2759165021.6091031034

-0.4024.069.981967ENSO Average IndexSac mafSJ maf

-0.7013.642.941968ENSO Average Index1

1.0726.9812.291969Sac maf0.10946364571

0.4724.065.611970SJ maf0.17672413020.91179793371RESIDUAL OUTPUTPROBABILITY OUTPUTRESIDUAL OUTPUTPROBABILITY OUTPUT

-1.2022.574.911971

-0.2713.433.571972ObservationPredicted 14.44ResidualsStandard ResidualsPercentile14.44ObservationPredicted SJ mafResidualsStandard ResidualsPercentileSJ maf

1.2020.056.471973117.8852288215.0647711790.63837306210.79365079375.1215.0286866038-0.3786866038-0.12042506640.781251.05

-1.5732.57.121974218.86313136179.73686863831.22725280742.3809523817.8125.49530191431.75469808570.55800662452.343751.97

-0.5319.236.181975318.98931233471.10068766530.1387326953.96825396838.236.18411499173.11588500830.99087386593.906252.08

-1.108.21.971976418.8631313617-1.4331313617-0.18063450915.55555555568.4446.2729940985-1.9229940985-0.61152596825.468752.1

0.505.121.051977517.7905930913-6.8105930913-0.85841966267.14285714298.8756.1841149917-1.8841149917-0.59916213237.031252.46

0.4323.929.651978617.664412118312.22558788171.5409355528.73015873029.2365.4286425842-1.9286425842-0.61332222738.593752.48

0.0712.415.981979718.516133686-3.626133686-0.457044550110.31746031759.2675.33976347744.33023652261.377046390410.156252.51

0.4022.339.471980819.90412438899.80587561111.23595057311.90476190489.2785.9396974481-1.6496974481-0.524615665711.718752.54

-0.5011.13.221981918.9893123347-6.9393123347-0.874643672513.49206349219.8196.91736762251.44263237750.458767482513.281252.58

0.0033.4111.4119821018.2953169832-5.2353169832-0.659868968615.079365079410.28106.2729940985-3.2929940985-1.047195831714.843752.76

1.8737.6815.0119831118.4530431995-6.4830431995-0.817134672616.666666666710.28115.7841590113-2.8241590113-0.898102898516.406252.94

-0.3722.357.1319841218.2006812535-3.0906812535-0.38955514218.25396825410.92125.8952578947-3.7952578947-1.206919335117.968752.96

-0.8711.043.619851318.29531698324.69468301680.591726470419.841269841310.98135.7174996812-0.1074996812-0.034185672619.531252.98

-0.3725.839.519861419.0208575779-8.1008575779-1.021046968421.428571428611.04145.78415901130.45584098870.144960716321.093753.05

1.239.272.0819871518.16913601037.47086398970.941641419423.015873015911.1156.2952138752-3.1552138752-1.003380728722.656253.14

0.479.232.4819881619.5255814699-6.5755814699-0.828798366224.603174603211.83165.69527990452.43472009550.774258519524.218753.18

-1.4314.823.5619891718.07450028055.98549971950.754423378526.190476190511.86176.6507303022-2.6707303022-0.849311464425.781253.2

0.209.262.4619901817.7905930913-4.1505930913-0.523148376827.777777777811.97185.62862057444.35137942561.383769985827.343753.22

0.238.443.219911919.46249098347.51750901660.947520644329.365079365112.05195.4286425842-2.4886425842-0.791406259128.906253.49

1.508.872.5819922018.8946766055.1653233950.651046848130.952380952412.41206.60629074885.68370925121.807460462630.468753.5

0.3322.218.3819932117.31741444265.25258555740.662045531432.539682539712.95216.2063347684-0.5963347684-0.189638749832.031253.56

0.137.812.5419942218.2006812535-4.7706812535-0.601305427834.12698412713.02225.0953459338-0.1853459338-0.058941341433.593753.57

0.8034.5512.3219952319.58867195640.46132804360.05814663435.714285714313.06235.7174996812-2.1474996812-0.682920359935.156253.6

-0.7722.297.2219962416.970416766915.52958323311.957377194737.301587301613.43246.6951698556-0.2251698556-0.071605635236.718753.81

-0.3325.429.5119972517.94831930751.28168069250.161545388638.888888888913.64254.85092839022.26907160980.721581108438.281253.98

1.8031.410.4319982617.4120501723-9.2120501723-1.16110372440.476190476214.6265.53974146770.64025853230.203606822939.843754.06

-1.2721.195.9119992718.9262218482-13.8062218482-1.740161560442.063492063514.82275.1620052639-3.1920052639-1.015080655341.406254.29

-1.4718.95.920002818.86313136175.05686863830.637377011443.650793650814.89286.2285545451-5.1785545451-1.646817629142.968754.3

-0.609.813.1820012918.516133686-6.106133686-0.769628305245.238095238115.11296.18411499173.46588500831.102176385844.531254.35

-0.0314.64.0620023018.83158611853.49841388150.440946511446.825396825416.01305.93969744810.04030255190.012816501746.093754.65

0.7719.314.8720033117.9798645508-6.8798645508-0.867150764648.412698412716.04316.1618952153.3081047851.052001138847.656254.87

0.2016.043.8120043218.453043199514.95695680051.88520230745017.43325.5619612443-2.3419612443-0.74476053749.218754.91

0.4318.559.2120053320.219576821417.46042317862.200743807951.587301587318.55335.89525789475.51474210531.753727693750.781254.94

-0.7032.0910.4420063418.10604552384.24395447620.534915817353.174603174618.9347.13956538947.87043461062.502854870652.343755.61

0.3010.282.5120073517.6328668751-6.5928668751-0.830977050454.761904761919.23355.65084035111.47915964890.470383417853.906255.61

-1.4010.283.4920083618.10604552387.72395447620.973541409256.349206349219.31365.3175437007-1.7175437007-0.546191262655.468755.9

-0.6713.024.9420093719.6202171996-10.3502171996-1.304560386657.936507936520.05375.65084035113.84915964891.22406048157.031255.91

1.3016.016.0820103818.894676605-9.664676605-1.218153590959.523809523820.09386.7173896323-4.6373896323-1.474723290758.593755.98

-1.1725.2110.9920113917.0965977398-2.2765977398-0.286946560761.111111111121.19396.2063347684-3.7263347684-1.185001284760.156256.08

-0.6711.832.7620124018.642314659-9.382314659-1.182564172662.698412698422.21404.939807497-1.379807497-0.438788718261.718756.18

-0.5311.863.0520134118.6738599022-10.2338599022-1.289894499264.285714285722.29416.0285765549-3.5685765549-1.13483303763.281256.24

4219.8725791456-11.0025791456-1.386785284565.87301587322.33426.0507963315-2.8507963315-0.906573758264.843756.47

4318.7684956323.4415043680.433773531767.460317460322.35436.8951478458-4.3151478458-1.372248082566.406257.12

4418.5792241725-10.7692241725-1.357372795169.047619047622.57446.11745566162.26254433840.719505389167.968757.13

4519.210129037415.33987096261.933465511770.634920634922.95455.9841370015-3.4441370015-1.095260363169.531257.22

4617.72750260484.56249739520.575065551972.222222222222.99466.42853253535.89146746471.873529070371.093757.25

4718.1375907677.2824092330.917888235773.809523809523.92475.38420303081.83579696920.583796653372.656258.13

4820.156486334911.24351366511.417153113975.396825396824.06485.67306012783.83693987221.22017450474.218758.36

4917.25432395613.93567604390.496059837476.984126984124.06497.0951258363.3348741641.060513994175.781258.38

5017.06505249661.83494750340.231280153778.571428571425.21505.05090638050.85909361950.273197956277.343759.21

5117.885228821-8.075228821-1.017816672880.158730158725.42514.91758772030.98241227970.31241417878.906259.3

5218.4214979562-3.8214979562-0.481668621681.74603174625.64525.4953019143-2.3153019143-0.736282678180.468759.47

5319.17858379420.13141620580.0165639483.333333333325.83535.873038118-1.813038118-0.576559174882.031259.5

5418.642314659-2.602314659-0.328000519484.920634920626.98546.4063127586-1.5363127586-0.488558518283.593759.51

5518.8631313617-0.3131313617-0.03946765286.507936507928.6556.0285765549-2.2185765549-0.705523317485.156259.65

5617.790593091314.29940690871.802323511388.095238095229.71566.18411499173.02588500830.96225321886.718759.67

5718.7369503887-8.4569503887-1.065929560389.682539682529.89575.42864258425.01135741581.593647738388.281259.98

5817.1281429831-6.8481429831-0.863152519991.269841269831.4586.0952358849-3.5852358849-1.140130823989.8437510.43

5917.8221383345-4.8021383345-0.60527033692.857142857132.09594.9620272737-1.4720272737-0.468115271191.4062510.44

6019.6833076861-3.6733076861-0.462990447794.444444444432.5605.4508623609-0.5108623609-0.162457908892.9687510.99

6117.34895968587.86104031420.9908199696.031746031733.41616.7618291857-0.6818291857-0.2168265994.5312511.41

6217.8221383345-5.9921383345-0.755260121897.61904761934.55625.11756571055.87243428951.867476383596.0937512.29

6317.9483193075-6.0883193075-0.767382948399.206349206337.68635.4508623609-2.6908623609-0.85571360497.6562512.32

645.5397414677-2.4897414677-0.79175571299.2187515.01

ENSO Correlations

Sac maf

SJ maf

ENSO DATA

Sac maf

ENSO Average Index

Water year flow (maf)

Sacramento Valley

Sheet1

-1.3

Residuals

-1.3 Residual Plot

Predicted 14.44

-1.3

14.44

-1.3 Line Fit Plot

Sample Percentile

14.44

Normal Probability Plot

ENSO Average Index

Residuals

ENSO Average Index Residual Plot

SJ maf

Predicted SJ maf

ENSO Average Index

SJ maf

ENSO Average Index Line Fit Plot

Sample Percentile

SJ maf

Normal Probability Plot

December-April

Sac IndexSJ IndexENSO Average IndexarDJFJFMFMAMAMAMJMJJJJAJASASOSONONDNDJ

6.622.85-1.301950-1.4-1.3-1.2-1.2-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7

9.183.14-0.601951-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200.40.611.11.21.10.9

12.385.170.4319520.60.40.30.30.30.1-0.100.20.20.20.3

9.553.030.5719530.50.60.60.70.70.70.70.70.80.80.80.8

8.512.720.4319540.70.50.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.7-0.7

6.142.3-0.701955-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.7-1.1-1.4-1.7-1.6

11.384.46-0.831956-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5

7.833.010.071957-0.30.10.40.70.911.11.21.21.31.51.8

12.164.771.5319581.81.61.20.90.70.60.50.30.30.40.50.6

6.752.210.5719590.60.60.50.30.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.100.10

6.21.85-0.171960-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.20.20.10.10.1

5.681.380.0019610000.10.30.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1

6.653.07-0.271962-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5

9.633.57-0.171963-0.4-0.20.10.30.30.50.81.11.21.31.41.3

6.412.190.6019641.10.60.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8

10.153.81-0.301965-0.6-0.300.20.50.81.21.51.71.91.91.7

7.162.511.1319661.41.10.90.60.40.30.30.10-0.1-0.1-0.2

10.25.25-0.401967-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.4

7.242.21-0.701968-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.40.50.50.60.81

11.056.091.0719691.11.110.90.80.60.50.50.80.90.90.8

10.43.180.4719700.60.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.8-1

10.372.89-1.201971-1.2-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.8

7.292.16-0.271972-0.6-0.30.10.40.60.81.11.41.61.92.12.1

8.583.51.2019731.81.20.6-0.1-0.5-0.8-1-1.2-1.3-1.6-1.9-2

12.993.9-1.571974-1.9-1.6-1.2-1-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.7

9.353.85-0.531975-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.8-1-1.1-1.2-1.4-1.5-1.6-1.7

5.291.57-1.101976-1.5-1.1-0.7-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.40.60.70.80.8

3.110.840.5019770.60.60.30.30.30.40.40.40.50.70.80.8

8.654.580.4319780.70.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.1

6.673.670.071979-0.10.10.20.30.2000.20.30.50.50.6

9.044.730.4019800.50.40.30.30.40.40.30.1-0.100-0.1

6.212.44-0.501981-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.1

12.765.450.001982-0.100.10.30.50.70.711.51.92.12.2

15.297.221.8719832.21.91.51.20.90.60.2-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8

103.69-0.371984-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.6-0.9-1.1

6.472.4-0.871985-1-0.9-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.4

9.964.31-0.371986-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.2-0.100.30.50.70.91.11.2

5.861.861.2319871.21.31.21.111.21.41.61.61.51.31.1

4.651.480.4719880.80.50.1-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.3-1.2-1.3-1.6-1.9-1.9

6.131.96-1.431989-1.7-1.5-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1

4.811.510.2019900.10.20.30.30.20.20.30.30.40.30.40.4

4.211.960.2319910.30.20.20.30.50.70.80.70.70.81.21.4

4.061.561.5019921.61.51.41.210.70.30-0.2-0.3-0.20

8.544.20.3319930.20.30.50.60.60.50.30.20.20.20.10.1

5.022.050.1319940.10.10.20.30.40.40.40.40.50.711.2

12.895.950.80199510.80.60.30.20-0.2-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.9

10.264.12-0.771996-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.5

10.824.13-0.331997-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.71.21.51.82.12.32.42.3

13.315.651.8019982.21.81.40.90.4-0.2-0.7-1-1.2-1.3-1.4-1.5

9.83.59-1.271999-1.5-1.3-1-0.9-0.9-1-1-1.1-1.1-1.3-1.5-1.7

8.943.38-1.472000-1.7-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.8-0.8

5.762.2-0.602001-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.100-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3

6.352.34-0.032002-0.200.10.30.50.70.80.80.91.21.31.3

8.212.810.7720031.10.80.40-0.2-0.10.20.40.40.40.40.3

7.512.210.2020040.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.70.80.70.70.7

8.454.770.4320050.60.40.30.30.30.30.20.10-0.2-0.5-0.8

135.6-0.702006-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.300.10.20.30.50.811

6.21.90.3020070.70.3-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.1-1.2-1.4

5.42.1-1.402008-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.5-0.7

5.52.4-0.672009-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.40.50.60.81.11.41.6

6.93.51.3020101.61.310.60.1-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.5

105.1-1.172011-1.4-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1-1

6.92.2-0.672012-0.9-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.200.10.40.50.60.2-0.3

5.81.6-0.532013-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.4

[..........Sacramento Valley..........][.........San Joaquin Valley ……]DWR Data Water Year Hydrologic Classification Indices

[.....Runoff (maf).....] [..WY Index..] [.....Runoff (maf).....] [..WY Index..]

WYOct-MarApr-JulWYsumIndexYr-typeOct-MarApr-JulWYsumIndexYr-typeSac%O-MSJ%O-MSac%A-JulSJ%A-Jul

19013.495.589.394.6W0.37167199150.5942492013

19021.123.815.083.41AN0.22047244090.75

19031.454.135.713.45AN0.25394045530.7232924694

19041.965.377.644.31W0.25654450260.7028795812

19051.823.365.33.24AN0.34339622640.6339622642

190612.5712.9226.7111.76W2.539.2412.436.7W0.47061025830.2035398230.48371396480.7433628319

190718.9613.4533.714.07W3.677.6111.826.2W0.5626112760.31049069370.39910979230.6438240271

19088.295.614.777.73BN0.982.173.322.4D0.56127285040.29518072290.37914691940.6536144578

190920.618.9830.6812.1W2.855.918.974.59W0.67177314210.31772575250.29269882660.6588628763

191013.126.1120.129.38W2.873.626.643.65AN0.65208747510.43222891570.30367793240.5451807229

191112.2713.1226.3811.74W3.637.5211.485.97W0.46512509480.31620209060.49734647460.6550522648

19124.845.6511.416.71BN0.542.573.212.55BN0.42418930760.16822429910.4951796670.800623053

19135.726.2912.856.24D0.442.3432C0.44513618680.14666666670.48949416340.78

191416.7210.0827.8110.92W2.725.678.694.35W0.60122258180.31300345220.36245954690.6524741082

191511.4111.4223.8610.99W1.294.956.44.1W0.47820620280.20156250.47862531430.7734375

191614.258.8924.1410.83W2.675.58.384.65W0.59030654520.31861575180.36826843410.6563245823

19177.259.1417.268.83AN1.664.846.664.13W0.42004634990.24924924920.52954808810.7267267267

19185.274.8910.996.19D1.073.44.593.08BN0.47952684260.23311546840.44494995450.7407407407

19198.126.7715.667BN1.062.994.092.62BN0.51851851850.25916870420.4323116220.7310513447

19203.634.919.25.15C0.723.294.092.64BN0.39456521740.17603911980.53369565220.804400978

192115.477.5223.89.2AN1.973.845.93.23AN0.650.33389830510.31596638660.6508474576

19226.6310.5717.988.97AN1.515.997.684.54W0.36874304780.19661458330.58787541710.7799479167

19236.216.2713.217.06BN1.393.955.513.55AN0.47009841030.25226860250.47464042390.7168784029

19243.271.945.743.87C0.451.031.51.42C0.56968641110.30.33797909410.6866666667

19258.766.5115.996.39D1.453.935.512.93BN0.54784240150.26315789470.40712945590.7132486388

19266.374.7911.765.75D0.892.563.492.3D0.54166666670.25501432660.40731292520.7335243553

192714.348.7523.839.52W1.84.566.53.56AN0.60176248430.27692307690.36718422160.7015384615

192810.245.8616.768.27AN1.692.644.372.63BN0.61097852030.38672768880.34964200480.6041189931

192943.848.45.22C0.522.292.842C0.47619047620.18309859150.45714285710.8063380282

19308.244.6513.525.9D0.762.443.252.02C0.60946745560.23384615380.34393491120.7507692308

19313.522.096.13.66C0.461.181.661.2C0.57704918030.27710843370.34262295080.7108433735

19326.286.2413.125.48D1.794.696.633.41AN0.47865853660.2699849170.47560975610.7073906486

19333.734.668.944.63C0.492.773.342.44D0.41722595080.14670658680.52125279640.8293413174

19345.682.458.634.07C0.981.262.281.44C0.65816917730.42982456140.28389339510.5526315789

19356.279.6916.596.98BN1.265.036.413.56AN0.37793851720.19656786270.58408679930.7847113885

193610.326.4117.357.75BN24.386.493.74AN0.59481268010.30816640990.36945244960.6748844376

19375.57.2413.336.87BN1.784.666.533.9W0.41260315080.27258805510.54313578390.7136294028

193817.9612.9331.8312.62W3.587.3311.245.89W0.56424756520.31850533810.40622054670.6521352313

19394.563.048.185.58D11.832.92.2D0.55745721270.34482758620.37163814180.6310344828

194014.786.9322.438.88AN2.494.046.593.36AN0.65893892110.377845220.30896121270.6130500759

194116.329.7727.0811.47W2.225.517.934.43W0.60265878880.27994955860.36078286560.6948297604

194214.339.9325.2411.27W1.935.287.384.44W0.56774960380.26151761520.39342313790.7154471545

194313.376.921.139.77W2.864.287.284.03W0.63274964510.39285714290.3265499290.5879120879

19444.814.9310.436.35D0.872.973.922.76BN0.46116970280.22193877550.4726749760.7576530612

19458.425.9215.066.8BN2.074.376.63.59AN0.55909694560.31363636360.39309428950.6621212121

194610.895.9717.627.7BN1.993.655.733.3AN0.61804767310.34729493890.33881952330.6369982548

19475.93.8310.395.61D1.262.123.422.18D0.56785370550.36842105260.36862367660.6198830409

19485.399.5515.757.12BN0.563.584.212.7BN0.34222222220.13301662710.60634920630.8503562945

19495.735.5911.976.09D0.623.123.792.53BN0.47869674190.16358839050.46700083540.8232189974

19507.016.7214.446.62BN1.023.574.652.85BN0.48545706370.21935483870.46537396120.7677419355

195116.775.4222.959.18AN4.352.837.253.14AN0.73071895420.60.23616557730.3903448276

195213.8613.6828.612.38W2.186.849.35.17W0.48461538460.23440860220.47832167830.735483871

195310.848.2620.099.55W1.073.184.353.03BN0.53957192630.24597701150.41114982580.7310344828

19549.746.8117.438.51AN1.13.164.32.72BN0.55880665520.25581395350.39070567990.7348837209

19555.195.0710.986.14D0.782.673.52.3D0.47267759560.22285714290.46174863390.7628571429

195620.328.629.8911.38W4.145.299.674.46W0.67982602880.42812823160.2877216460.5470527404

19577.726.2914.897.83AN1.023.194.293.01BN0.5184687710.23776223780.42243116190.7435897436

195816.3712.2429.7112.16W1.676.48.364.77W0.55099293170.19976076560.41198249750.7655502392

19597.43.8412.056.75BN0.981.852.982.21D0.61410788380.32885906040.31867219920.6208053691

19607.724.6513.066.2D0.852.072.961.85C0.59111791730.28716216220.35604900460.6993243243

19616.874.3911.975.68D0.541.52.11.38C0.57393483710.25714285710.36675020890.7142857143

19628.176.2315.116.65BN1.264.245.613.07BN0.54070152220.22459893050.41230972870.7557932264

196312.0110.0922.999.63W1.684.376.243.57AN0.52240104390.26923076920.43888647240.7003205128

19645.94.3710.926.41D0.932.143.142.19D0.54029304030.29617834390.40018315020.6815286624

196516.598.1325.6410.15W3.24.558.133.81W0.64703588140.3936039360.31708268330.5596555966

19667.424.8412.957.16BN1.492.423.982.51BN0.5729729730.37437185930.37374517370.608040201

196712.1411.0124.0610.2W2.467.099.985.25W0.50457190360.2464929860.4576059850.7104208417

19688.664.1213.647.24BN1.021.852.942.21D0.63489736070.34693877550.30205278590.6292517007

196915.3310.6826.9811.05W3.848.1412.296.09W0.56819866570.31244914560.39584877690.6623270952

197018.874.3524.0610.4W2.552.965.613.18AN0.78428927680.45454545450.1807980050.5276292335

197112.718.922.5710.37W1.563.234.912.89BN0.56313690740.31771894090.3943287550.6578411405

19727.615.0213.437.29BN1.252.223.572.16D0.56664184660.3501400560.37379002230.6218487395

197312.86.3820.058.58AN1.874.486.473.5AN0.638403990.28902627510.31820448880.6924265842

197421.699.7832.512.99W2.434.537.123.9W0.66738461540.34129213480.30092307690.6362359551

19759.248.9519.239.35W1.374.656.183.85W0.480499220.22168284790.46541861670.7524271845

19764.632.758.25.29C0.781.071.971.57C0.56463414630.39593908630.33536585370.5431472081

19772.491.935.123.11C0.220.81.050.84C0.4863281250.20952380950.3769531250.7619047619

197814.98.1223.928.65AN2.576.59.654.58W0.6229096990.26632124350.33946488290.6735751295

19796.065.6412.416.67BN1.873.995.983.67AN0.48831587430.31270903010.45447219980.6672240803

198015.49622.339.04AN3.745.419.474.73W0.69368562470.39493136220.26869682040.5712777191

19816.813.6311.16.21D0.852.293.222.44D0.61351351350.26397515530.3270270270.7111801242

198220.5611.8233.4112.76W3.78711.415.45W0.61538461540.33128834360.35378629150.6134969325

198322.7513.6637.6815.29W5.428.7315.017.22W0.60376857750.36109260490.36252653930.5816122585

198415.985.5222.3510W3.513.487.133.69AN0.71498881430.4922861150.24697986580.4880785414

19856.24411.046.47D1.112.413.62.4D0.56521739130.30833333330.36231884060.6694444444

198619.455.4525.839.96W4.364.929.54.31W0.75300038710.45894736840.21099496710.5178947368

19875.852.89.275.86D0.551.482.081.86C0.63106796120.26442307690.30204962240.7115384615

19885.782.99.234.65C0.861.552.481.48C0.62621885160.34677419350.31419284940.625

19899.035.0714.826.13D1.072.423.561.96C0.60931174090.30056179780.34210526320.6797752809

19904.943.729.264.81C0.831.592.461.51C0.53347732180.3373983740.40172786180.6463414634

19913.94.018.444.21C0.562.573.21.96C0.46208530810.1750.47511848340.803125

19925.412.938.874.06C0.861.662.581.56C0.60992108230.33333333330.33032694480.6434108527

199312.448.9822.218.54AN2.495.658.384.2W0.56010805940.29713603820.40432237730.6742243437

19944.552.737.815.02C0.661.82.542.05C0.58258642770.25984251970.34955185660.7086614173

199519.8313.634.5512.89W3.678.0112.325.95W0.57395079590.29788961040.39363241680.6501623377

199613.058.3722.2910.26W2.574.517.224.12W0.58546433380.35595567870.37550471060.6246537396

199720.224.3925.4210.82W5.753.599.514.13W0.7954366640.60462670870.17269866250.3774973712

199817.6512.5431.413.31W2.827.1110.435.65W0.56210191080.27037392140.39936305730.6816874401

199912.977.2621.199.8W1.93.855.913.59AN0.61208117040.32148900170.34261444080.6514382403

200012.065.9618.98.94AN1.983.785.93.38AN0.63809523810.33559322030.31534391530.6406779661

20015.643.469.815.76D0.922.233.182.2D0.57492354740.28930817610.35270132520.7012578616

20029.324.5714.66.35D1.272.754.062.34D0.63835616440.31280788180.31301369860.6773399015

200310.717.7419.318.21AN1.253.494.872.81BN0.55463490420.25667351130.40082858620.7166324435

200410.954.416.047.51BN1.512.253.812.21D0.68266832920.39632545930.27431421450.5905511811

20058.49.2818.558.49AN2.736.289.214.75W0.45283018870.29641693810.50026954180.6818675353

200618.0613.0932.0913.2W2.867.3710.445.9W0.56279214710.27394636020.40791523840.7059386973

20076.593.0410.286.19D0.991.462.511.97C0.64105058370.39442231080.29571984440.5816733068

20085.93.8210.285.16C0.992.453.492.06C0.57392996110.28366762180.37159533070.7020057307

20097.055.2212.915.75D1.513.364.972.73BN0.54608830360.30382293760.40433772270.676056338

min2.491.935.123.110.220.81.050.84

mean11.276.5218.628.331.973.815.963.290.56415030390.29863822870.38547413940.6760648011

max22.7513.6837.6815.295.759.2415.017.22

Pre 19500.52974953740.27536598950.41984605280.7006532588

Post19500.58937753270.31764389070.36026806960.6559842272

Rate of seasonal shift seems to be about 1% per decade.

Sac%O-M

Sac%A-Jul

SJ%O-M

SJ%A-Jul

Year

Proportion of Water Year's Flow

Sac A-Jul = -0.001x + 2.2854R2 = 0.1254

SJ A-Jul = -0.0007x + 1.9718R2 = 0.0644

33

Streamflow and El Nino

ENSO Index

Sac.

Riv

er A

nnua

l Run

off,

maf

Water Challenges for California AgricultureOutlineSlide Number 3Water and People in CaliforniaMost annual rainfall variability in USDroughtDrought in CaliforniaDroughts test, and spur progressSacramento Valley PrecipitationSan Joaquin Valley PrecipitationTulare Basin PrecipitationSierra SnowpackReservoir levels2015 Water Shortage & Changes in Groundwater2015 Estimated Agricultural Drought ImpactsSlide Number 16Innovations from this drought?Water ScarcityGroundwater ProblemsImplications from GroundwaterNeed to reconcile ecosystems and agricultureSlide Number 22Who depends on the Delta?Delta Island SubsidenceProblems of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaDelta of Tomorrow Will be Different, No Matter What We Do Three linked Delta problemsPortfolio-based ManagementResistance is FutileConclusionsSuggested ReadingsWill next year be dry?�(from historical data, 1906-2013)Streamflow and El Nino