Water for the Future

Martin ZehrLynn Montgomery

Lora LuceroElaine Hebard

Water is Over Appropriated

• Must Have Either:

I. A Net Increase in Water Supply by Importing, and Decreasing Evaporation Losses or,

II. A Net Decrease in Water Demand by Reducing Users, Conserving, and Restricting the Number of New Users.

Phoenix Scenario Development Committee of the Middle Rio Grande Water Assembly

Primary Concerns

• Depletion of the aquifer has significant ramifications for the future;

• Existing supply of ground and surface water is insufficient to meet demand;

• Water quality of Rio Grande must be improved to provide suitable drinking water.

Phoenix SDC Was Directed to:

County PopulationHistory and Forecasts for Counties in MRCOG Region

Year Bernalillo County Sandoval County Torrance County Valencia County Southern Santa Fe Regional Total

1950 145,673 12,438 8,012 13,530 200 179,853

1960 262,199 14,201 6,497 16,146 263 299,306

1970 315,774 17,492 5,290 20,451 296 359,303

1980 419,700 34,799 7,491 30,769 1,185 493,944

1990 480,577 63,319 10,285 45,235 3,700 603,116

2000 556,678 89,908 16,911 66,152 9,065 738,714

2005 595,954 108,538 19,523 76,512 11,363  811,890

2010  631,839 126,294 21,690 86,708 13,771 880,302

2015 666,114 144,377 23,475 97,330 16,206 947,502

2020 698,832 162,409 24,979 108,064 18,538 1,012,822

2025 729,750 179,998 26,318 118,593 20,579 1,075,238

Sources: US Bureau of Census, UNM-BBER, and MRGCOGForecasts for Bernalillo, Sandoval, Torrance, and Valencia Counties were produced by the University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research (UNM-BBER). The forecast for southern Santa Fe County was generated by MRCOG.

Population Continues to Increase

Urban Development Year Urban Area

(acres) % growth from 1935

% growth from previous period

1935 4,372.205 N/A N/A

1951 15,397.889 252 252

1973 49,746.052 1,038 223

1991 84,889.336 1,842 71

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1950sdrought

Average rainfall 14.5 inches/year

Chaco Canyon abandoned

Mesa Verde abandoned

BC AD

Rainfall and Culture Over 2000 Years in New MexicoTree rings from El Malpals National Monument (Henri Grissino-Mayer)

What if “drought” is more consistent with regional weather patterns.

Albuquerque area growth – 1935 to 1991

Subsidence causes unintended consequences

Destruction of roads and infrastructure

Costs $$$ not budgeted for repairs

Aquifer Schematic

Aquifer levels impact on surface water flow

Large scale industrial water users and resultant population increase lead to aquifer depletion and danger of subsidence

INCOME The final agricultural sector output from New Mexico farmers and ranchers rose to over $2.3 billion in 2001, up 6.6 percent from 2000. Crop output increased 7.3 percent to $538 million and livestock output increased 6.6 percent to almost $1.7 billion.

http://nmdaweb.nmsu.edu/stat.html

Our Farmers Support Us,

We Should Support Them

Unchecked housing expansion in previously undeveloped areas taxes water supply.

Los Alamos National Laboratories

Pollutants from nuclear waste disposal and naturally occurring arsenic levels endanger the quality of water

from the Rio Grande

Preferred Alternatives

• Expand Definition of Watershed Plans A-66

• Importation of Water A-69

• Urban Conservation A-18

• Growth Management A-52

• Water Quality A-47