water resources and adaptation to climate change in north china plain and poyang lake region in...
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Water Resources and Adaptation to Climate Change in North China Plain and Poyang
Lake Region in China:Preliminary Findings and Research Plan
Jikun Huang, Jinxia Wang and Lingling HouCenter for Chinese Agricultural Policy
Chinese Academy of Sciences19 June 2013
Presentation
• Project goals and objectives
• Research design and data
• Preliminary findings
– Adaptation measures and determinants
– Farmers’ perception on climate change and
determinants
• Research plan
Long term change of temperature in the NCP: 1960-2012
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201011.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0 oC 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
12.89 12.86 12.88 13.51 13.82
Long term change of temperature in the PLR: 1960-2012
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201016.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5 oC
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
17.57 17.32 17.30 17.40 18.23
Long term change of precipitation in the NCP: 1960-2012
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100 mm
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
801.6 800.6 761.7 799.9 805.3
Long term change of precipitation in the PLR: 1960-2012
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
mm1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s1271 1364 1355 1503 1302
Research goals
The overall goals of this study are to improve adaptation strategies by conducting economic analysis and exploring appropriate technologies, policy, and investment options (TPI) to address immediate challenges and those posed by longer term climate variability and change in water and water related sectors in two of the most vulnerable regions in China, NCP and PLR.
Research objectives
Obj. 1: Documenting historical and future change of climate, variability, their impacts on water, and the likely adaptation measures in NCP and PLR.Obj. 2: Identifying appropriate adaptive options and the constraints of their adoptions.Obj. 3: Assessing cost and benefit of major adaptation measures.Obj. 4: Building capacity for researchers, local policy makers and communities on water and adaptation to climate change.
Presentation
• Project goals and objectives
• Research design and data
• Preliminary findings
– Adaptation measures and determinants
– Farmers’ perception on climate change and
determinants
• Research plan
Research design and data (1)
• Adaptation to long run climate change: – Based on actual adaptation strategies of
community (e.g., village) and individuals (e.g., farmers) in the past -- township and village surveys
– Based on individual perception of climate change and their practices in water and water related sectors (e.g., crop) -- household and individual surveys
Research design and data (2)• Impacts and adaptation to extreme events:
– Natural experiments:• Each province: select counties that experienced
one relatively normal year and the other serious natural disaster year in recent 3 years: identify the impacts
• In each county: select 3 townships with different water infrastructure (good, average and poor): identify effects of different infrastructure
– Randomly select rural households• 10 hh/village; large variations in resilience
NCP : 15 counties, 45 IDs, 45 townships, 135 villages and 1350 hh in 5 provinces PLR : 10 counties, 10 IDs, 30 townships, 90 villages and 900 hh in one province
Household Survey: General Information
• Household characteristics (e.g., demographic data, human capital, employment, production assest, wealth, water related service, etc)
• Decision making by man and women• Past adjustments to climate shocks• Perceived change of climate• Opinions to adjust their perceived long term
climate change and variability• …
Community Survey • Basic socio-economic characteristics: topography,
soil types, transportation infrastructure • Water conservancy infrastructure: irrigation and
drainage systems, drinking water facilities, and water transportation
• Access to surface and groundwater resources, and change of water supply availability
• Various damages from extreme weather events in the past decade
• Adaptation measures adopted: technical, policy and institutional arrangement, and investment project
• Costs and constraints to adopt various adaptation measures
• …
Presentation
• Project goals and objectives
• Research design and data
• Preliminary findings
– Adaptation measures and determinants
– Farmers’ perception on climate change and
determinants
• Research plan
Occurrence of Drought in NCP
Henan Hebei Shandong Jiangsu Anhui NCP0
20
40
60
80
100
4740
2633
57
46
98
50
37
77 8074
Percentage of plots (%)
normal year disaster year
Yield Reduction due to Drought in NCP
Henan Hebei Shandong Jiangsu Anhui NCP0
3
6
9
12
5
7
3
2
6
5
6
8
5
7
11
7
Yield reduction (%)
normal year disaster year
Practitioner Category 1 Category 2 Main contents
Household
EngineeringBuild Well, Pump, Greenhouse, Water cellar and Pond
Repair Well, Pump, Greenhouse, Water cellar and Pond
Non-engineering
Water saving technology
Border irrigation, Furrow irrigation, Level field, Surface pipe, Sprinkler, Drip, Plastic film, Less tillage, Residual retention, Evaporation resisting agentia, Intermittence irrigation, Drought-resistance variety
Field management
Change: Variety, Sowing and harvest date, Reseeding, Fixing and cleaning, Irrigation time and volume, Other inputs
Risk management Adjust planting structure, Agricultural insurance coverage
Rural community
EngineeringBuild Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam, Pond, Well, Pump and
Underground pipe
Repair Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam, Pond, Well, Pump and Underground pipe
Non-engineeringRisk management Disaster fighting activity, agricultural insurance
Capacity improvement
Disaster prevention training, Water user association, Other farmers Association
Government
EngineeringBuild Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam
Repair Reservoir, Dam
Non-engineeringRisk management
Provide: Disaster warning service, Disaster response knowledge, Funding support, Technical support, Launched emergency warning system, Emergency response plan, rules and regulations for disaster, Change water price policy
Capacity improvement
Disaster prevention training
• Adoption of adaptation measures by farmers, communities and government: cope with drought in the North China Plain (NCP)
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Households:Engineering and Non-engineering Measures
10
36
92
39
56
0
20
40
60
80
100
Share of households(%)
Engineering measures
Investment Maintenance Water saving technologies
Farm management
Risk management
Non-engineering measures
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Households: Farm Management Measures
3.5
23.5
16.9
1.60.1 0.7 1.0 0.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Share of households(%)
Change crop
varieties
Change sow/
harvest date
Reseed,clean/
fitplant
Change irrigation intensity
Change irrigation
date
Change seed input
Change fertilizer
inputs
Change pesticide
inputs
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Communities: Engineering Measures
0
16
0 0 4
20
79
14 17
4 6
4
26
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Investment Maintenance
%
Drainage/irrigation station
Drainage/irrigation
canal
Bank Dam Pond Well Pump
6.7
93.3
Villages Established Water User Association (%)
Established
not estab-lished
28.1
71.9
Villages Established Farmers’ Production Association (%)
Established
Not estab-lished
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Communities: Capacity Building
Before dis-aster
After disaster Financial support
Technical support
Material support
0
20
40
60
80
100
29 2825
1810
Percentage of village, %
Early Warning Information Policy Support
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Government: Information Service and Policy Support
Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures by Farmers: Logit Econometric model
Disaster (D) Type of year (1=normal year;0=disaster year)Early warning information service (I) Providing information before
disaster(1=Yes;0=No); Providing information during/after disaster (1=Yes;0=No)Capacity building (G) Water use associations(1=yes;0=No) Agricultural production association (1=yes;0=No)Whether the household joined in training(1=Yes;0=No)
Irrigation infrastructure (F) Dyke, Dam (1=yes;0=No) Irrigation and drainage stations (1=yea; 0=No) Number of tubewells
Household Characteristics (H)
AgeEducationFarming experienceFamily sizeDistance to agri. product shopDistance to wholesale marketNumber of relativesPlot Characteristics (O) Soil type (loam, clay) Landform Saline Distance to home Province Dummy (R)
ROH
GDdoption
765
43210 FI)1APr(
Adoption of engineering measure
Adoption of non-engineering measures: farm management
Year type If normal year (1=Yes; 0=No) -0.0174 -0.571***Early warning information service Providing before disaster(1=yes;0=no) 0.128** 0.281*** Providing during/after disaster (1=yes;0=no) 0.197*** 0.138** Capacity building Water User Association (1=yes;0=no) 0.319*** 0.117 Agricultural production association (1=yes;0=no) 0.0918 -0.0925 Attending training (1=yes;0=no) 0.222*** 0.128** Infrastructure Having Dyke (1=yes;0=no) 0.187** -0.606*** Having Dam(1=yes;0=no) 0.278** 0.454*** Number of irrigation and drainage irrigation stations -0.217*** 0.0810** Number of tubewells 0.000249 -0.000363Household characteristic Family size (persons) -0.0131 0.0300** Age (year) -0.00651 -0.00331 Farming experience (year) 0.00337 0.00689 Education (year) -0.00823 0.00853 Distance to agricultural product shop (km) 0.00734*** 0.00638** Distance to wholesale markets (km) -0.000288 -0.00654 Number of relatives 0.00506 0.0207***Plot characteristic Loam (1=loam;0=other) -0.223*** -0.00506 Clay (1=clay;0=other) -0.176** 0.083 Landform (1=Plain; 0=Mountain) 0.868*** -0.633*** Saline (1=yes;0=no) -0.0817 0.152* Distance to distance(km) 0.163*** 0.0816* Province Dummy Variables Not report Not reportPseudo R2 0.14 0.12
Econometric results on the determinants of adoption of adaptation measures
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: Year Type and Early Warning Information Service
Adoption of engineering
measure
Adoption of non-engineering
measures: farm management
Year type
If normal year (1=yes; 0=no) -0.0047 -0.1768***
Early warning information service
Providing before disaster (1=yes;0=no) 0.0425** 0.0922***
Providing during/after disaster (1=yes;0=no) 0.0685*** 0.0439**
Adoption of engineering
measure
Adoption of non-engineering
measures: farm management
Capacity building
Water user association (1=yes;0=no) 0.1110*** 0.0377
Attending training (1=yes;0=no) 0.0762*** 0.0407***
Irrigation infrastructure condition
Having Dyke (1=yes;0=no) 0.0686** -0.1594***
Having dam (1=yes;0=no) 0.0957** 0.1587***
Number of irrigation and drainage stations -0.0716 0.0252**
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: Capacity Building and Irrigation Infrastructure Condition
Adoption of engineering
measure
Adoption of non-engineering
measures: Farm management
Household characteristic
Family size(person) -0.0044 0.0093***
Education (year) -0.0021 0.0027**
Distance to wholesale markets (km) 0.0024*** 0.0019 Distance to agri. product shop (km) -0.0007 -0.0020***
Plot characteristics
Loam soil (1=loam;0=other) -0.0687*** -0.0016
Clay soil (1=clay;0=other) -0.0555** 0.0261
Landform(1=Plain; 0=Mountain) 0.2133*** -0.2292***
Saline land (1=yes;0=no) -0.0233 0.0493*
Distance to home (km) 0.0575*** 0.0254*
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: household and plot characteristics
Summary on the Adoption of Adaptation Measures
• In order to cope with drought, farmers, communities and government have made some responses by various engineering and non-engineering adaptation measures;
• The adoption of adaptation measures by farmers is influenced by the adaptation measures adopted by communities and government;
• Existing adaptation ability (e.g., irrigation infrastructure condition) also influences farmers’ behavior;
• The adoption of adaptation measures by farmers is also influenced by the characteristics of households and community.
Farmers’ Perception on the Climate Change
• How much percentage of farmers’ perception is right?
• What factors influence the correction of farmers’ perception?
Farmers’ Perception on Last Ten Years’ Temperature and Precipitation
Unknown3%
Increased72%
Decreased8%
Unchanged17%
Temperature
Unknown5%
Increased28%
Decreased47%
Unchanged20%
Precipitation
Correct16%
Wrong84%
Temperature
Correct56%
Wrong
44%
Precipitation
How Much Percentage of Farmers’ perceptions Is Correct?
Determinants of the Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Logit Econometric model
Policy (P) Early warning system Agricultural extension serviceSocial Capital (S) No. of relativesVillage Characteristics (V)
Whether the village is linked or scatteredLandform of the village (plain=1; hill=0)Soil type Whether irrigated by surface waterDistance to the closest road
Household Characteristics (H)
AgeGenderEducationWhether household head is a village leaderOff-farm Family sizeFarm sizeTotal asset for productionTotal asset for livelihood
Province Dummies(R)
RVHSPCorrect 543210)1Pr(
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Policy Support and Social Capital
Temperature Precipitation
Government Policy Support
Early warning system(1=Yes;0=No)
0.042** -0.012
Agricultural extension service(1=Yes;0=No)
0.022** -0.049**
Social Capital
No. of relatives 0.021** -0.001
Temperature Precipitation
Household Characteristics
Age -0.001** -0.001
Education 0.040** 0.000
Off-farm (Percentage of off farm workers within a household)
-0.0002 -0.001**
Farm size (mu) 0.0005*** 0.005
Total asset for production (thousand RMB)
0.0004** 0.001**
Total asset for life (thousand RMB) -0.001*** -0.000
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Household Characteristics
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Village Characteristics
Temperature Precipitation
Village Characteristics
Whether the village is linked or scattered (linked=1; scattered=0)
0.020* -0.040*
Landform of the village (plain=1; hill=0) -0.057*** -0.043*
Clay soil (clay=1; others=0) 0.017 -0.042*
Loam soil (loam=1; others=0) 0.037*** -0.030
Whether irrigated by surface water (yes=1; no=0)
0.009 -0.082***
Summary on Famers’ Perception on Climate Change
• Only a few percentage of farmers’ perception on temperature is correct and half of farmers’ perception on precipitation is correct;
• The correction of perception on temperature is significantly influenced by information and extension services provided by government, farmers’ social capital and some characteristics of households and communities;
• The correction of perception on precipitation is mainly influenced by some characteristics of households and communities.
Presentation
• Project goals and objectives
• Research design and data
• Preliminary findings
– Adaptation measures and determinants
– Farmers’ perception on climate change and
determinants
• Research plan
Research Plan
Obj. 1: Finish literature review on climate change
and water
Obj. 2: Continue to conduct empirical analysis on
the adoption of adaptation measures.
Obj. 3: Conduct relevant surveys and finish analysis
(both empirical analysis and modelling simulation)