water resources & health · 5/7/2014 · water resources & health: new threats from...
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Water Resources & Health: New threats from
disrupting the earth’s climate
Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director
Rotary Club of Madison
May 7, 2014
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2
Courtesy: Prof.
Paul Block
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World’s Water
USGSThis tiny sphere is all the World’s Water
Courtesy: Prof.
Paul Block
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Tuesday’s News
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Temperature data
“The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data .. show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06]°C, over the period 1880–
2012” IPCC AR5 WG1 2013
Global Temperature Anomaly 1850-2012
IPCC AR5 WG1 Figure SPM.1
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Glacial flow:
2001:
7 km/yr
2006:
14 km/year
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Glacier Bay National Park, 1941. The glacier is 2,000 feet thick.
USGS photo, available www.coasttocoastam.com/shows/2005/01/29.html
Glacier loss
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Glacier Bay National Park, 2004. Receding glacier, new vegetation since 1941.
Photo: USGS/Bruce Molnia, available www.coasttocoastam.com/shows/2005/01/29.html
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Semi-Arid and Arid Sub-Tropics and Tropics & Areas w/
High Population Density
In the 20th century the world population
tripled – while water use multiplied six-fold! 10
Courtesy: Prof.
Paul Block
By 2025 two thirds of the people in the
world are expected to live in areas of
water shortage or stress.
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Future
summers
warmer than
warmest on
record
Today’s 1 billion
at risk for hunger
could double by
mid-century.
Battisi and Naylor, Science
2009
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Typhoon HaiyanPhilippines, Nov. 8, 2013
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Hurricane Strength & Sea Surface
Temps. Emanuel, 2005
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Surface °C ∆ last 100 yrs
Source: NASA GISS
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Sea level rise threatens coastal
fresh water aquafers
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Daily hospitalizations for diarrhoea, by daily temperature, Lima, Peru.
(Shaded region corresponds to 1997-98 El Niño event)
Checkley et al, Lancet 2000 (J. Patz PI)
Daily hospitalizations for diarrhoea
Daily temperature
19971993
Overall estimate from regression analysis: 7% increase in daily cases per 1o C rise
5oC
+33%
El Niño
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Heating the
planet…
It’s not just
about warming.
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Floods
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USA: Combined sewer
overflows (CSOs)
1.2 trillion gal. of sewage & stormwater a year
discharged during combined sewer overflows
– would keep Niagara Falls roaring for 18 days
CCCCeeeennnntttt eeeerrrr ffffoooorrrr WWWWaaaa tttteeeerrrr aaaannnndddd HHHHeeeeaaaalllltttthhhhCWHCWHJOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITYJOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
Courtesy: K. Schwab
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U.S. CCSP, 2008Globally Averaged
In Future, when it
rains…it will pour.
By mid-century, Chicago
region may experience 50-
120% increase in CSO
events (Patz et al. 2008)
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Bradford Beach
South Shore Beach
Bradford and South Shore Beach on Lake Michigan
E. coli CFU/100 ml
235-999
0-100
100-235
1000-9999
10,000-20,000
Rainfall
Urban stormwater
Sewage overflow
Courtesy: Sandra
McLellan
UW-Milwaukee
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Monday’s News
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CLIMATE
CHANGE
Temperature Rise 1
Sea level Rise 2
Hydrologic Extremes
Urban Heat Island Effect
Air Pollution &
Aeroallergens
Vector-borne Diseases
Water-borne Diseases
Water resources & food
supply
Mental Health &
Environmental Refugees
Heat StressCardiorespiratory failure
Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma
MalariaDengueEncephalitisHantavirusRift Valley Fever
CholeraCyclosporaCryptosporidiosisCampylobacterLeptospirosis
MalnutritionDiarrheaToxic Red Tides
Forced MigrationOvercrowdingInfectious diseasesHuman Conflicts
1 3°C by yr. 21002 40 cm “ “IPCC estimates
Patz, 1998
HEALTH EFFECTS FROM DISRUPTING CLIMATE
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Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
1- Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2- Achieve universal primary education
3- Promote gender equality and empower women
4- Reduce child mortality
5- Improve maternal health
6- Combat major diseases (HIV/AIDS, malaria, others)
7- Ensure environmental sustainability
8- Develop a global partnership for development
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Reducing fossil fuel use:
An opportunity for improving health
We can reduce:
The 3 million annual deaths
from urban air pollution
The loss of 3.2 million deaths,
from physical inactivity
Global Burden of Disease Report, 2013
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Co-benefit of 0.7 to 4.7 million deaths/yr.
and increased crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric
tons/yr due to ozone reductions in 2030
Shindell….J Schwartz… et.al.
Science, 2012
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• Cost of cleaner energy:
< $30/ tCO2
West et. al. 2013
• Benefits of
cleaner
energy:$200*/
tCO2WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER???
(* Range: $50 to $380)
For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater
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Health system
strengthening