water security: in search of the optimal balance - opi lipi · water security: in search of the...

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Water Security: In Search of

the Optimal Balance

Robert Cardinalli

International Development Group

Research Triangle Institute, USA

November 8 - 10, 2011

10th NATIONAL CONGRESS ON SCIENCES

(KIPNAS-X)

Jakarta, Indonesia

The Research Triangle Institute established by

Duke University, University of North Carolina

and North Carolina State University is an

independent, nonprofit institute that provides

research, development, and technical services

to government and commercial clients

worldwide.

RTI is the 2nd largest research institute in the USA

with a staff of more than 2,800 supporting

projects in more than 40 countries: e.g. RTI is

responsible for designing most of the US

government regulations and systems protocols

for the US EPA.

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RTI pursues comprehensive, multidisciplinary

research activities in the following major areas of

study:

• Health Research – incl. public health

policy, economics, epidemiology, genetics, and

infectious diseases

• Drug Discovery and Development – from

discovery, synthesis and design to toxicology

and metabolic analysis to comprehensive clinical

trial and drug assessment services

• Education and Training Research

• Survey Research and Services - survey & data

management services, & quantitative and

qualitative statistical analysis

• International Development - public health,

education, governance and management, urban

development, water resources management,

global climate change, environmental resource

management, and public finance

• Economic and Social Research – examines

technology, agriculture, judicial, and other social

and economic policies

• Advanced Technology Research and

Development - development and engineering of

innovative technologies for practical application;

intellectual asset management services for the

global market

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• Energy Research - research & development of

technologies for the production and use of clean

fuels

• Environmental Research Services –

environmental standards research & scientific,

technical, and policy analysis of environmental

issues

• Laboratory and Chemistry Services

Laboratory-based research and services in

analytical chemistry, forensic science,

environmental toxicology, testing and analysis,

quality standards, and lab certification

Water Security:

Threats and Opportunities

1. Water & Development: water both hampers & promotes economic and social growth

2. Water Security & Optimal Balance: the water hardware vs. software conundrum

3. Water & Measured Development: keying deliberate decision-making to responsible policy and practical implementation

Water Security: In Search of the

Optimal Balance

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a basis of production, growth &

socio-political stability

Water: the good, the bad & the

ugly

a basis of infrastructure

devastation, perpetuating

poverty & inciting conflict

Threats to Global Water Security

• World population explosion

• Rapid human shifts from rural to urban

• Major dietary change behavior

• Increasing pollution of water resources

• Over-abstraction of groundwater

• Issues created by climate change

5

• Scarcity, Drought

& Famine

• Flood & Inundation

• Landslides

• Desertification

• Contamination

• Disease & Epidemic

• Conflicts & Wars

Gujarat State, India August 2008

Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic

devastation, stagnating poverty devastation, stagnating poverty

& political conflict& political conflict





& Famine


• Landslides

• Desertification

• Contamination



Bangkok, November 2011

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& Famine


• Landslides

• Desertification

• Contamination



Western Nepal, August 2011





& Famine


• Landslides

• Desertification

• Contamination



7





& Famine


• Landslides

• Desertification

• Contamination

• Disease & Epidemics


Hrazdan River, Armenia 2010





& Famine


• Landslides

• Desertification

• Contamination



Indonesia, July 2005

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& Famine


• Landslides

• Desertification

• Contamination



Global Water Flashpoints 2011


growth, basic requirements for survival, growth, basic requirements for survival,

and production, growth & stabilityand production, growth & stability

• Robust communities

• Sustainable

ecosystems

• Food production

• Energy generation

• Transportation

• Culture and Religion

• Socio-political Stability

9





• Sustainable ecosystems

• Food production


• Transportation




• Sustainable

ecosystems

• Food production


• Transportation






10


• Sustainable

ecosystems

• Food production


• Transportation

• Culture & Religion






• Sustainable

ecosystems

• Food production


• Transportation






11



• Food production


• Transportation








• Food production


• Transportation


• Socio-political

Stability




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Water Security:


1. Water & Growth: water both hampers & promotes economic and social growth

2. Water Security & Optimal Balance: the water hardware vs. software conundrum

3. Water & Responsible Growth: keying deliberate decision-making to responsible policy and practical implementation

Water Security: it’s all

about balancing the pluses

and the minuses

Demand & risk management

dependable, predictable &

adequate quantity & quality of

water for agriculture, municipal

services, industry and basic

health

AND@ manageable levels of risk

of unanticipated water-

related impacts

a cause of destruction,

poverty & conflict

basis for production,

health, growth &

cooperation

AND@

Countervailing forces

Water Security & Water Security &

the Optimal the Optimal

BalanceBalance

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Water Security: the economic growth correlate

Most regions with high rainfall/ runoff variability/ unpredictability are poor; knowledge & capital deficits create high risk

GDP and Rainfall Variability

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Mean Annual Rainfall

Monthly Rainfall

Variability

Bubble Size = GDP per capita(Blue = low inter-annual variability of rainfall)

Red = high rainfall variability

Developing countries face more challenging climate conditionsHigh variability

High mean

Wealthy nations share a small window of favorable climate (low variability; moderate

rainfall)(After Brown, 2007)

Water Security: dependable, predictable & adequate quantity

& quality of water for agriculture,

municipal services, industry and basic

health AND manageable levels of risk of

unanticipated water-related impacts



BalanceBalance

Optimal Balanceof water

hardware/infrastructure

& institutions

investment needed

to achieve Water

Security=

(Imbalanced)

Water Insecure

+Water Secure

(Balanced)

+Median

Balance Point

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Water hardware vs. software:

the elephant in the living room

COMMON CONFLICTING PERSPECTIVES

• To invest in small-scale water infrastructure

• To invest in large-scale water infrastructure

• To invest in water institutions & management

OR

• To blend all three, reflecting needs & situation

Countries prone to water insecurity must leverage all

options & select & implement sensibly



BalanceBalance

To dam or not to dam, that

is the question<

• Water security achieved with hydrological variability requires water storage & regulation

• Water storage: natural (aquifers, lakes, wetlands), small or large

• Water storage: artificial (aquifers, dams & reservoirs), small or large

• Industrial countries: water secure, invested in what they need (small/large, natural/artificial)

Water-insecure countries need to carefully assess sustainable storage options before investing

scarce resources



BalanceBalance

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BalanceBalance

• Developing countries: seriously limited by hydrology

• Intermediate countries: constrained by hydrology

• Industrial countries: in command of hydrology



BalanceBalance




•

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BalanceBalance




Japan Case Study(Japan Water Forum 2006)

WSS coverage UP

Morbid/mortality DOWN

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

19

18

19

20

19

22

19

24

19

26

19

28

19

30

19

32

19

34

19

36

19

38

19

40

19

42

19

44

19

46

19

48

19

50

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

Year

Domestic Water Use

(million m³/year)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Patients and DeathsDomestic water use

Patients and deaths of waterborne infectious diseases

Infant deaths

-missing-

Coverage of water supply system

26.2%

36.0%

53.4%

69.4%

80.7%

87.6%91.5%

93.3%94.7%

95.8%96.6%

-missing-

-missing-

2,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

3,100,000

3,200,000

3,300,000

18

83

18

85

18

87

18

89

18

91

18

93

18

95

18

97

18

99

19

01

19

03

19

05

19

07

19

09

19

11

19

13

19

15

19

17

19

19

19

21

19

23

19

25

19

27

19

29

19

31

19

33

19

35

19

37

19

39

19

41

19

43

19

45

19

47

19

49

19

51

19

53

19

55

19

57

19

59

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

Year

Acreage

(hectares)

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

Yield

(tons)

Paddy production

Planted area

Source:

Production, Marketing and Consumption Statistics Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. “Statistics on Crops”

Planning Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. “Annual Statistics of Foods in Japan”

The First Farmland Reform

The Second Farmland Reform

Paddy efficiency: UP

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

194

5

194

6

194

7

194

8

194

9

195

0

195

1

195

2

195

3

195

4

195

5

195

6

195

7

195

8

195

9

196

0

196

1

196

2

196

3

196

4

196

5

196

6

196

7

196

8

196

9

197

0

Fiscal Year

Generated electric power

(millions of kilowatt/hour)

Hydro Thermal

Source:

Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy. “Hand book of electric power industry”

Electric Power Development Promotion Law

Hydropower: MATURE

Thermal: UP

Water Security & the Optimal BalanceWater Security & the Optimal Balance(Japan Water Forum 2005)(Japan Water Forum 2005)

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Water Security:


1. Water & Growth: water both hampers & promotes economic and social growth

2. ‘Water Security’ & ‘Minimum Platform’: the water hardware vs. software conundrum

3. Water & Responsible Growth: keying deliberate decision-making to responsible policy and practical implementation

Water: Importance of Scientific and Social Water: Importance of Scientific and Social

Research in Maintaining Optimal BalanceResearch in Maintaining Optimal Balance

� Very often scientific research on water resources and management is

compartmentalized into convenient sectors: engineering, policy,

economic, social, political, hydro-meteorological.

� To achieve significant efficiencies in water security, water solutions

should be considered in context of entire water system from:

• spatial inclusiveness: “cloud to coast”

• upstream downstream dynamics

• multiple sources and types of water characterized and assessed

(free river flows, green water, grey water, brown water, etc.)

• options for water storage and access during dry seasons

• river basin and watershed management to be considered in context

of livelihood growth

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Research needed identifying new and sustainable technologies in:

• Storage of excess flows during floods & surface water storage

• Sustainable groundwater use & better understanding of

aquifers

• Holistic crop production: OFWM efficiency (irrigation &

drainage alongside innovative crop science research)

• Improvements in plant breeding to reduce irrigation demand

• More efficient industrial production processes

• Improved desalination techniques & management of brine

waste

• Better modeling of water systems

• Transparent water data management & cadastral information

systems shared between countries

Water: Importance of Scientific and Social Water: Importance of Scientific and Social

Research in Maintaining Optimal BalanceResearch in Maintaining Optimal Balance

Matching Incentives to Improve

Water Governance

• Incentive compatibility makes certain that innovations

and reforms are supported by adequate and appropriate

incentives

• Complex situations with multiple stakeholders require a

complex solution based on incentives tailored to each

stakeholder category need, otherwise water governance

will be dysfunctional

• IC index entails four essential stages:

– Specifying Water Security goals and objectives

– Setting stakeholder essential services & relations

– Identifying applied mechanisms

– Assessing efficacy of the existing and new

mechanisms for incentive creation

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Governance to Empower Consumers to

Manage Water Resources

• Restructure government-dominated

organizational structure assigning water

governance to end users

• Require transparent environment of support,

opportunities and investment from government

• User empowerment to: 1) ensure equitable

distribution of water supplies and services, 2)

maintain infrastructure performance integrity, 3)

ensure local government technical and political

support after authority devolution

Governance to Empower Consumers to

Manage Water Resources

Main tool elements – strengthen ability to:

• Develop consultative decision-making process

• Undertake participatory infrastructure O&M

• Position consumers to directly oversee service providers

• Develop multi-level management systems

• Ensure compatibility of local cultural norms, traditional

values, gender mainstreaming, and allocation and

distribution

• Inculcate self-assessment capability to manage within

local water management organizations to continue

growth and evolution

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Water Security, Optimal Balance,

Logical and Rational Growth@.• Water security: reducing destructive, increasing productive

impacts of water (underpinning not undermining growth)

• Achieving water security essential for growth & development

• Optimal balance of infrastructure & institutions to achieve water security

• All industrial countries above optimal balance (often low: a reason for early growth)

• Most poor countries below optimal balance (often high: a reason for constrained growth)

• Major investment needed for growth in many poor countries

• Balanced investment in water infrastructure & institutions

• Adaptive investment to minimize social & environmental costs

• Inclusive investment to maximize stakeholder values

In a globally challenged economic environment, closing that gap is a major challenge

Children of Two Countries Officially Still at War

(Armenia and Azerbaijan) celebrate

Caucasian regional water festival - 2010

Photo: R. Cardinalli

Thank you

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