4/25/2018

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Water Supply ConditionsKevin Hostert, Water Resources Analyst

Municipal Water District of Orange CountyApril 25th 2018

Subject IntroductionOrange County Weather and Water Supply Conditions Insight to local weather conditions that affect California’s water supply

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Santa Ana PrecipitationSanta Ana Precipitation

8.06

14.87

3.82

14.57

8.41

29.06

8.51

2.19

9.46 9.88

16.82

21.39

8.27

6.36

4.37

8.838.15

20.66

3.62

Average Rainfall 12.9 Inches

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Rainfall (Inches)

Santa Ana Annual Precipitation Statistics (Fiscal Year July‐June)

Santa Ana PrecipitationSanta Ana Precipitation

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1‐Jul 1‐Aug 1‐Sep 1‐Oct 1‐Nov 1‐Dec 1‐Jan 1‐Feb 1‐Mar 1‐Apr 1‐May 1‐Jun

Rainfall (Inches)

Santa Ana Year by Year Rainfall ComparisonHistorical Average Wettest Year (1997‐98) Driest Year (2006‐07) 2016‐17 2017‐18

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Precipitation (Inches)

Fiscal Year

Historical Annual Rainfall (Santa Ana)

20.66” 2016‐173.62” 2017‐18

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Subject IntroductionRegional Weather and Water Supply ConditionsInsight to regional weather conditions that affect California’s water supply

Northern California Accumulated Precipitation

010203040506070

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

INC

HES

Accumulated Precipitation (8-Station Precip Index)

Historical Average Water Year17-18

0.8

11.1

0.7

7.0

0.9

13.4

4.6

0

5

10

15

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

INC

HES

Monthly Precipitation (8 Station Precip Index)

Historical Average Monthly Total

38.5 Inches

87% of Normal

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Snow Water Equivalent

Snow

Water

10 Units

2 Units

20% Liquid Equivalent

5% 5% 0% 0% 0%5% 5% 5%10% 10%

15%

15%

20% 20% 20% 20%

10% 10%

15%

30%

45%

60% 60% 60%

20%20%

45%

60% 60%

85% 85% 85%

15% 15%

15%

20%

20% 20%

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun.

SWP TABLE A ALLOCATIONFOR STATE WATER PROJECT CONTRACTORS

Water Year 2014 Water Year 2015 Water Year 2016 Water Year 2017 Water Year 2018

SWP 2018 Table A Allocation

Final  2016:   60%1.15 MAF to MWD

Final  2017:   85%1.62 MAF to MWD

Final 2018: 20%‐35% ???

Final 2015:  20%0.38 MAF to MWD

Final 2014:  5%0.09 MAF to MWD

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SWP Storage Levels 

CRA Storage Levels 

1,050

1,075

1,100

1,125

1,150

1,175

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

Feet

Lake MeadSurplus Trigger (1,145)

Shortage Trigger (1,075)

Projection

Historical

1,085 Feet

3,500

3,525

3,550

3,575

3,600

3,625

3,650

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

Feet

Lake Powell

Historical Projection

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Drought Conditions

April 2018 April 2017

MWD 2018 Water Storage

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MWD 2018 Estimated Water Storage

1.1

1.41.5

1.4

1.8

2.2

1.8

1.1 1.0

1.7

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.2

0.9

1.3

2.5

2.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million Acre Feet

MWD Historical Demand VS Supplies

Total MWD EOY Storage Total MWD Supplies Total MWD Sales

Preliminary Estimate

2.4

Water Supply Conclusions

• Accumulated Precipitation is slightly below the historical average in Northern California.  Northern California Snowpack is well below average.

• Precipitation in Southern California is well below average for the 2017‐18 water year. Below average precipitation has occurred 6 of the last 7 years.

• Key State/Federal Reservoirs Levels are at or above the historical averages (excluding Lake Oroville).

• Table A allocation is at 30 %, which is about 0.57 MAF of water to MWD. 

• Drought conditions have strengthen this year but are still relative weak compared to the last drought.  

• The Colorado River System is still in decline and Lake mead could possibly see a shortage trigger at the start of CY 2020. 

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GWRS LRP Funding 

$613,797 

$5,476,109 

$7,375,144 $7,391,164 

$8,068,050 $8,182,843 

$7,401,219 

$8,470,000  $8,470,000  $8,470,000 

$7,755,822 

$714,178 

$8,470,000 

$3,255,699 

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

$9,000,000

2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20

Annual GWRS LRP Credits

FY 2007‐08 to FY 2017‐18 = Total of $77,674,147

Projected = $12,439,877

Total MWD LRP Credit = 

$90,114,024

physical address18700 Ward Street, Fountain Valley CA 92708

mail addressP.O. Box, Fountain Valley CA 92728

websitewww.mwdoc.com

main office(714) 963‐3058

MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT OF ORANGE COUNTY

Thank you for your attention.Please let us know if you have questions.

Kevin HostertWater Resources Analyst

(714) 593‐5034

Khostert@MWDOC.com