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Water: The Environmental Outlook to 2050
Helen Mountford
Deputy Director, OECD Environment Directorate
OECD Global Forum on Environment: Making Water Reform Happen
25-26 October 2011, Paris
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water Chapter
Presentation Outline
• Environmental Outlook: Key trends and projections
Water demand
Water stress
Water pollution
Access to water supply and sanitation
• Key messages and traffic lights
• Policy options: instruments for water policies
• Importance of water pricing
3
OECD BRIICS RoW Overall
Growing demand from manufacturing, electricity and domestic use
Water demand will increase by 55% by 2050
Manufacturing Electricity Domestic Overall Irrigation
Facing competing
demands from other sectors, there will be
little scope for expanding irrigation
80% increase
15% decrease
55% increase
400%
130% 140%
-14%
55%
Livestock Irrigation Domestic Manufacturing Electricity
2000 2050
3,500 km3
5,500 km3 Projected Increase in Water Demand by 2050 Drivers of Demand
Water stress
Under the Baseline, the number of people living in river basins under severe water stress is projected to more than double between 2000 -2050 , reaching 3.9 billion people
5 Source: The Environmental Outlook Baseline projections; output from the IMAGE suite of models (PBL)
1.6 1.6
1.3 1.3
3.2 Bn 3.2 Bn
Population living under water stress 2050 (9.2 Bn)
People under no or low water stress
People under medium water stress
People under severe water stress
2000 (6.1 Bn)
3.9 Bn
1.4
3.9 Bn
Nearly half of the world population is projected
to live under severe water stress
OECD BRIICS RoW
2000
2050
= 200MM
Water stress is projected to increase significantly and most of this increase occurs in BRIICS
Brazil
China region
India region
Indonesia
Japan and Korea
Middle East
Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Nam
Rest Africa
Rest L-Am
Rest SE Asia
Russia region
Southern Africa
Ukraine and C-Asia
1970
Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades
Nitrogen Phosphorus
1 MM 4.5 MM
Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year)
Sewage
Brazil
China region
India region
Indonesia
Japan and Korea
Middle East
Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Nam
Rest Africa
Rest L-Am
Rest SE Asia
Russia region
Southern Africa
Ukraine and C-Asia
4.5 MM 1 MM
Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades
Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year)
Nitrogen Phosphorus
1970
2000
Sewage Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection
Brazil
China region
India region
Indonesia
Japan and Korea
Middle East
Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Nam
Rest Africa
Rest L-Am
Rest SE Asia
Russia region
Southern Africa
Ukraine and C-Asia
4.5 MM 1 MM
Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades
Nitrogen Phosphorus
1970
2000
2030
Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year)
Sewage Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection
Brazil
China region
India region
Indonesia
Japan and Korea
Middle East
Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Nam
Rest Africa
Rest L-Am
Rest SE Asia
Russia region
Southern Africa
Ukraine and C-Asia
4.5 MM 1 MM
Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades
Nitrogen Phosphorus
1970
2000
2030
2050
Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year)
Sewage Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection
Brazil
China region
India region
Indonesia
Japan and Korea
Middle East
Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Nam
Rest Africa
Rest L-Am
Rest SE Asia
Russia region
Southern Africa
Ukraine and C-Asia
1970
Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades
Nitrogen Phosphorus
100 Kg 150 Kg
Agriculture
Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture
Brazil
China region
India region
Indonesia
Japan and Korea
Middle East
Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Nam
Rest Africa
Rest L-Am
Rest SE Asia
Russia region
Southern Africa
Ukraine and C-Asia
100 Kg
Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades
Nitrogen Phosphorus
1970
2000
Agriculture
Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection
150 Kg
Brazil
China region
India region
Indonesia
Japan and Korea
Middle East
Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Nam
Rest Africa
Rest L-Am
Rest SE Asia
Russia region
Southern Africa
Ukraine and C-Asia
150 Kg 100 Kg
Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades
Nitrogen Phosphorus
1970
2000
2030
Agriculture
Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection
Brazil
China region
India region
Indonesia
Japan and Korea
Middle East
Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Nam
Rest Africa
Rest L-Am
Rest SE Asia
Russia region
Southern Africa
Ukraine and C-Asia
150 Kg 100 Kg
Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades
Nitrogen Phosphorus
1970
2000
2030
2050
Agriculture
Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection
Arctic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Medit + Black
Pacific Ocean
Level of pollution discharge in Oceans/Seas will increase in the coming decades Phosphorus Discharge (Tonnes per Year)
1950
1970
2000
2050
Nitrogen Discharge (Tonnes per Year)
Arctic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Medit + Black
Pacific Ocean
20 MM 5MM
2030
1990 2010 2030 2050
1990 2010 2030 2050
Significant efforts have been made in improving access to improved sources of water, but…
240Mn
830MM
Urban
Rural
Due to population growth and urbanisation,
a large population will continue to lack access to
improved sources of water…
1990 2010 2030 2050
BRIICS OECD
RoW
1990 2010 2030 2050
… with RoW being mainly affected around 2050
Additional 1.8 bn provided access (1990-2008)
1990 2010 2030 2050
1990 2010 2030 2050
People lacking access to improved sanitation will continue to be a challenge
Urban
Rural
Number of people lacking improved sanitation is
projected to still be almost 1.5 billion in
2050… 1990 2010 2030 2050
BRIICS
OECD
RoW
1990 2010 2030 2050
… with 60% of them living in the ROW
1.5Bn
2.45Bn
Key messages and traffic lights
Traffic light Key messages
Number of people living in river basins under severe water stress
Increase in water demand
Groundwater abstraction
Number of people at risk of floods
Restoration of surface and groundwater quality in OECD countries
Deterioration of surface and groundwater quality outside the OECD
Improved access to water supply and sanitation in BRIICS
Number of people without access to water and sanitation in developing countries
18
Policy options
Policy option Measures/instruments
Incentivise water use efficiency Pricing, cut back perverse subsidies, coherence
Invest in water storage innovatively Assess conflicts with environment
Reconsider water allocation mechanisms Water rights reform, pricing
Mitigate water related disasters Restore natural buffers, reconsider settlement
Improve WW treatment, reduce run-off Encourage R & D and speed-up diffusion
Accelerate WSS in developing countries Innovative expansion, PPP, ODA
Improve water governance for coherence Engage stakeholders, share innovative models
19
The importance of pricing: water conservation (% ownership against water fee structure)
Source: OECD (2011), Greening Household Behaviour: The Role of Public Policy
