waternsw operations update - waternsw - waternsw · regulated river (high security) [town water...

WaterNSW

Operations update

NSW Murray Valley

July 2019

WaterNSW

3

Drought Situation

Update

WaterNSW

Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW

Dam Storages

4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Dartmouth Dam storage

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Dam Storages

5

0%

10%

20%

30%

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50%

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70%

80%

90%

100%

110%


Hume Dam storage

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Dam Storages

6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

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100%

110%


Lake Victoria Storage

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Dam Storages

7

0%

10%

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30%

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90%

100%

110%


Menindee Lakes Storage

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

WaterNSW

Current Resource Breakdown 15 July 2019

8

9

NSW rainfall

10

NSW rainfall

11

NSW rainfall

12

Maximum temperature

13

Maximum temperature

Inflows are consistent with rainfall trends over the past 6-month period, with Dartmouth catchment being one of the few places to receive near average rainfall totals. Actual inflow for the 6 months was driven by May and June inflows (101 GL) with the 6-month total of 146 GL which is consistent with 50th percentile inflows (147 GL); the minimum inflow is 43 GL.

Inflows are consistent with rainfall trends over the past 12-month period. Actual inflow for the 12 months is 489 GL which is slightly better than 90th percentile inflows (450 GL); the minimum inflow is 166 GL.

Dartmouth Dam Inflows

14

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19

Inflo

w V

olu

me

(G

L)

Dartmouth Dam - 6 month inflows/statistical

inflows

99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile

25 percentile Actual Inflow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19

Inflo

w V

olu

me

(G

L)

Dartmouth Dam - 12 month inflows/statistical

inflows



Inflows are less than the rainfall trends over the past 6 months period, likely due very dry catchment conditions experienced over the previous 12 to 18 months. Actual inflow for the 6 months is 225 GL (160 GL May & June) –consistent with 90th percentile inflows (221 GL); the minimum inflow is 69 GL.

Inflows are consistent with rainfall trends over the past 12 months. Actual inflow for the 12 months is 774 GL which is slightly better than 95th percentile inflows (602 GL); the minimum inflow is 124 GL .

Hume Dam Inflows

15

0

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700


Inflo

w V

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(G

L)

Hume Dam - 6 month inflows/statistical inflows



0

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3500

4000


Inflo

w V

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(G

L)

Hume Dam - 12 month inflows/statistical inflows



Inflows significantly exceed rainfall trends over the past 6 months period. Actual inflow for the 6 months is 772 GL which is slightly better than 50th percentile inflows (678 GL); the minimum inflow is 190 GL.

Inflows are consistent with rainfall trends over the past 12-month period. Actual inflow for the 12 months is 2327 GL which is slightly greater than 75th percentile inflows (2266 GL); the minimum inflow is 575 GL.

Tributary Inflows

16

0

200

400

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1200

1400


Inflo

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L)

Total Tribs - 6 month inflows/statistical inflows



0

1000

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4000

5000

6000

7000

8000


Inflo

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(G

L)

Total Tribs - 12 month inflows/statistical inflows



Inflows over the past 6-month period were 3.3 GL; the minimum is 0 GL.

Inflows over the past 12 months have totalled 6.3 GL as compared to the minimum of 4 GL.

Menindee Lakes Inflows

17

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800


Inflo

w V

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me

(G

L)

Menindee Lakes - 6 month inflows/statistical

inflows



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500


Inflo

w V

olu

me

(G

L)

Menindee Lakes - 12 month inflows/statistical

inflows

99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile25 percentile Actual Inflow

Menindee Lakes Inflows

18

19

Drought Outlook

WaterNSWWater NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW

20

Climate Outlook

ENSO Outlook

21

22

What are we doing

Now?

2019/20

Water Availability for NSW Murray

23

Licence category Share

component

Carryover

in

AWD

volume

Allocation

assignments in

Allocation

assignments out

Usage Balance

Domestic and stock 13,732 -2 13,732 0 0 27 13,703

Domestic and stock (domestic) 1,250 -1 1,250 0 0 9 1,240

Domestic and stock (stock) 2,063 0 2,063 0 0 3 2,060

Local water utility 33,497 -2 33,497 0 0 226 33,269

Local water utility (domestic and commercial) 4,720 0 4,720 0 0 102 4,618

Regulated river (Conveyance) 330,000 0 19,998 11,948 0 110 31,836

Regulated river (general security) 1,674,096 312,108 0 16,203 12,391 12 315,909

Regulated river (high security) 189,705 -1,032 184,017 1,481 17,195 212 169,387

Regulated river (high security) [Community and

Education]

47 0 47 0 0 0 47

Regulated river (high security) [Research] 1 0 1 0 0 0 1

Regulated river (high security) [Town Water

Supply]

3,195 0 3,195 0 0 0 3,195

Supplementary water 252,468 0 252,468 0 0 0 252,468

Grand total 2,504,773 351,072 514,987 29,632 29,586 702 867,732

• All values are presented in Megalitres• The last general security allocation was made on 15 March 2018 (0.02ML/share)• General Security Carryover from 2018/19 is fully deliverable

2019/20

Water Availability for NSW Murray

24

NSW Murray River Valley

Allocation (ML/Share, %) Licence Category Date of Allocation

0.0 / 0% General security 1 July 2019

0.97 / 97% High security 1 July 2019

1.00 / 100% Domestic and stock 1 July 2019

1.00 / 100% Local water utilities 1 July 2019

0.06 / 6% Conveyance 1 July 2019

0.18/ 18% Average general security

carryover

1 July 2019

Storage Forecast

25

0%

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110%

Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20

Sto

rag

e C

ap

ac

ity (

%)

Dartmouth Dam - Forecast Storage Capacity

Actual Extreme dry scenario (99%) Dry scenario (90%) Near average scenario (50%) Wet scenario (25%)

Storage Forecast

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0%

10%

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110%


Sto

rag

e C

ap

ac

ity (

%)

Hume Dam - Forecast Storage Capacity


Storage Forecast

27

0%

10%

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110%


Sto

rag

e C

ap

acit

y (

%)

Lake Victoria - Forecast Storage Capacity


Storage Forecast

28

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Sto

rage

vo

lum

e (M

L)

Menindee Lakes volume (ML)

80th percentile inflow Minimum inflow Zero inflow Actual

System committments1 August 2019

Water Sharing Tiers1 August 2019

State Entitlement Structure

32

NSW Entitlements Victorian Entitlements SA Entitlement

Stock and Domestic 17,045 High Reliability 1,244,789 Stock and Domestic 8,369 Local Water Utilities 38,217 Low Reliability 311,607 Town Water 50,000

High Security 192,948 High Reliability 607,898

Conveyance 330,000 Industry/Dairy 5,569

General Security 1,674,096 High Reliability Wetlands 39,954

TOTAL 2,252,306 TOTAL 1,556,396 TOTAL 711,790

Policy Framework

Drought Management Plans

DoI Water development of the Temporary Water Restriction protocol

Valley Based Incident Response Guides

WaterNSW responsible for the preparation of drought management plans

for each valley

Including the development of management of criteria for assessing the

criticality of priority water use

Drought management plans are prepared in consultation with local

stakeholders

Drought Plans are approved by DoI Water with input from the CWAP

Temporary Water Restriction Process

NSW Drought Operations

Plan▪ Current resource situation is being managed through restriction to

allocation – Conveyance; Wakool River Allowance

▪ Examples of actions undertaken at other locations, that could be

applied in the NSW Murray if circumstances require:▪ Implementation of temporary water order providing restrictions of use or access to

available water on accounts

▪ Cease delivery to sections of river systems

▪ Block release for stock and domestic supplies

34

Critical Dates

35

SN Drought Impacts Probable Impact Timeframe

1 Nil access to HS that are not for human usage Jul-19

2 Nil access to GS and restricted to usages other than

critical human needs and essential supplies Jul-19

3 Limited water supply to Mungindi Jul-19

4 Limited replenishment flow to Boomi River Sept/Oct-19

5 Limited access to S&D usage Jul-19

6 Algal blooms and increased chance of fish kills due to low

storage levels Sept/Oct-19

7 Potential restricted delivery for some of the towns (e.g.

Goondiwindi, Mungindi) Jul-19

8 Water quality issues at low storage levels May/Jun-20

Rainfall Event Forecasting and Monitoring

• WaterNSW monitors rainfall and inflows

• If current drought restriction are to be changed WaterNSW to

prepare change plan and justification for DoI Water approval

• DoI W and WaterNSW communicate changes


Drought Monthly Valley Assessment

• WaterNSW monitors and reports on the drought situation around the state

including the drought priority assessments

• WaterNSW recommends drought management strategy changes based

on reported conditions and reasons for changes (public interest test)

• DPIE Water assess drought conditions and actions and approves course

on action (regulatory alignment)

• DPIE and WaterNSW update drought situation and water restriction orders

• DPIE Water and WaterNSW communicate changes


Mapping of Critical

Water Supplies


Criticality of Water Supply Assessment

• WaterNSW plan to run through with local stakeholder the process to managing flow event and justifying the need for Temporary Water Restrictions

• Develop criteria for the assessment of critical water supply status

• Produce a map of the State to show what areas of have been identified as critical which will be undated as situation changes

• Examples shown in follow slides

Criticality of Water Supply Criteria - Border

Goondiwindi Water

Supply

Xx Volume in storage

Ashford Water Supply


Boomi S&D Supply

150 Days of cease to Flow

Macintyre S&D Supply


Mungindi Water Supply


Walgett Water SupplyXx Volume in storage

Pian Creek S&D Supply120 Days of cease to Flow

Namoi River D/s Wee WeaS&D Supply


Namoi River U/S Wee WeaS&D/HS Supply


Criticality of Water Supply Criteria - Namoi

Lower Bogan

365 Days cease

to Flow

Duck/Crooked

90 Days cease

to Flow

Marra

120 Days

cease to Flow

Criticality of Water Supply Criteria - Gwydir

Bourke to Wilcannia


Brewarrina to Bourke

100 Days of cease to

Flow

Collarenebri to Brewarrina100 Days of cease to Flow

Bourke

Weir Pool 3.6 m

Brewarrina Weir

Pool 3.6 m

Walgett Weir

Pool 1.9 m

Menindee

Lakes 60 GL

Criticality of Water Supply Criteria Barwon Darling

1. Identification of critical Environmental Sites - prepared for the Macquarie

2. Development of Monitoring Program – under development

3. Development of Response Strategy – to be developed

Critical Environmental Sites

45

Keep Informed

WaterNSW


Visit the website at:

waternsw.com.au/drought

For information on the Macquarie Valley including water availability reports and drought reports go to:

waternsw.com.au/supply/drought-information/regional-nsw/

Call us on: 1300 662 077

Subscribe at: waternsw.com.au/subscribe

For weekly customer drought updates and more information

46

To keep updated

https://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/drought-information/regional-nsw/macquarie-valley

47

Thank you for joining us today

WaterNSWWater NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW

waternsw operations update - waternsw - waternsw · regulated river (high security) [town water...

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