weather brief for tbec 12 november 2013, nukualofa tonga met service nukualofa ofa faanunu tonga met...
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WEATHER BRIEF FOR TBEC
12 November 2013,Nuku’alofa
‘Ofa Fa’anunu
Tonga Met ServiceMINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE
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RAINFALL
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Mean annual rainfall for Tonga's main islands (1971-2000)
2453
2374
2150
1619
1721
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Niuafo'ou
Keppel
Vava'u
Ha'apai
Tongatapu
Isla
nd g
roup
mm
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0
50
100
150
200
250
FUA'AMOTU AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR 1971-2000
AVERAGE
MONTH
MM
DRY DRY
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Seasonal Cycles
06/02/10 Tonga Meteorological Services 6
Seasonal Cycles
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NIUAFOOU NIUATOPUTAPU VAVAU
HAAPAI NUKU’ALOFA
NFO = ABOVE 1001MMNTT = ABOVE 864MMVAV= ABOVE 8I3MMHAP= ABOVE 580MMTBU = ABOVE 565MM
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TROPICAL CYCLONES
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What is a tropical cyclone?
Tropical Cyclone = wind circulation around a centre > 34kts
Warnings Wind speed
Gale warning = 34-47kt
Storm warning = 48-63kt
Hurricane warning = >64kt
10/18/10 10Tonga Meteorological Services
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10/18/10 11Tonga Meteorological Services
A Tropical Cyclone will be categorized as per the Australian and South Pacific
Category System as follows: Category Potential damage
10-Min Mean Wind Maximum 3-Sec Gust
Category 1 (Tropical Cyclone)
(Negligible house damage. Damage to some crops and trees. Boats may drag anchor e. g. TC CILLA)
63 – 87 km/hr (34 – 47 knots)
Less than 125 km/hr (Damaging Winds)
Category 2 (Tropical Cyclone)
(Minor house damage. Significant damage to trees. Heavy damage to crops. Risk of
power failure. Small boats my break anchor e. g. TC HINA)
88 – 117 km/hr (48 – 63 knots)
125-169 km/hr (Destructive Winds)
Category 3 (Severe Tropical Cyclone)
(Some roof and structural damage. Power failure likely e. g. TC KINA)
118 – 157 km/hr (64 – 85 knots)
170-224 km/hr (Very Destructive Winds)
Category 4 (Severe Tropical Cyclone)
(Significant roofing loss and structural
damage, Dangerous airborne debris e. g TC WAKA)
159 – 200 km/hr (86 – 110 knots)
225-279 km/hr (Very Destructive Winds)
Category 5 (Severe Tropical Cyclone)
(Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction. e. g. TC HETA)
Over 200 km/hr) (Over 110 knots)
Over 280 km/hr (Very Destructive Winds)
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10/18/10 13Tonga Meteorological Services
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06/02/10 Tonga Meteorological Services 14
Impacts and Extremes
Average number of tropical cyclones per season (66 years)
El Nino 1.88 La Niňa 1.63 Neutral 1.64
All seasons
1.74
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Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2013/14
Average to Below average no of TCs expected in the SW Pacific (mod confidence);
TC risk is higher than normal for the countries west of and around the Dateline;
4 to 8 named tropical cyclones expected this season;
Average to above average activity for Tonga
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Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2013/14
Chance of getting a cyclone in Tonga this season is 114% (High). Likely 2
Severe TC Risk for Tonga 171% (Very High);
Cyclone formation and track will most likely be from west to north quadrant
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TC Season for 2013/14 similar conditions to
1981/82 - TC Isaac (Severe – C&S Tonga) 1984/85 - TC Lance (Storm), TC Drena
(Storm) both N.Tonga, TC Eric (Severe – C&S Tonga)
1990/91 – TC Sina (Severe – C&S Tonga), TC Val (Severe – Northern Tonga)
1996/97 – TC Hina (Severe Southern Tonga), TC Keli (June) (Severe N.Tonga)
2001/02 – TC Waka (Severe N&C Tonga)
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TSUNAMI
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2 natural cuts in the reef
PACCSAP Project
Nukualofa
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Sea flooding already affectsNuku’alofa from subsidence even before the tsunami arrives
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After modeling
• Confirmed extreme tsunami risk for Tongatapu
• There are wave depths of >10m in places and several km inland depending on local topography.
• Nuku’alofa and eastern Tongatapu are most vulnerable.
• Warning times will be very limited (10-25 minutes)
• There are several small pockets of safer (higher) ground
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WILL NOT WORK IN A
LOCAL EVENT
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Detecting a local tsunami
• Tonga seismic network problematic (5 seismic stations) & no direct access by warning center
• Earthquake data from USGS
• Geological Survey Unit send an automatic message through HYDRA system (often can receive a preliminary center & magnitude quicker than PTWC)
• Warning center looking to using earthquake intensity meters to measure ground shaking as an early warning indicator
• Sea Level monitoring equipment to be improved through SPCR Project
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Current warnings
1) Urgent Tsunami Alert
– Ready made and ready to go (TMS)
2) Tsunami Warning
- As received by PTWC
(3) Local Earthquake Bulletin – Anything above 4.5M and below 70km depth
(4) PTWC international SMS direct to mobile
phone
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Future warnings (from later 2014)
1) Urgent Tsunami Warning (ready made)
2) Tsunami Warning (when verified)
(3) Local EQ Advisory (4.5 <M<7.5) <50km
(4) Regional EQ Advisory (M>7.5) <50km
(5) Distant EQ Advisory
(6) Tsunami No threat Advisory
(7) Tsunami Marine Warning
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Disseminating the warnings
• 24hr SMS mobile alert service via 1 Telecom provider (Digicel) to selected users relevant to the warning system
• Live broadcast on national radio (Radio Tonga) – national coverage (both MET and NEMO)
• Activation of sirens in place
• Met Service Website
• Email distribution
• Telefone/fax
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KALAA’U
KALA’AUFAHEFA
THIS ROCK IS THOUGH TO BE BROUGHT BY A TSUNAMI
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Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga
• When there is an earthquake find something solid and lie down next to it. Do not go underneath table or bed etc
• If the earthquake is strong enough for you to loose balance, move away from the coast immediately a tsunami might be on its way in less than 15mins
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Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga
• Move inland by 1 mile and wait there. Listen to radio. If no radio then wait there for an hour
• Know where you live. Be aware of high strong buildings. Even tall trees you can climb
• If you are on a small island, move to the centre of the island a find a strong tree to climb
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Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga
• Be aware of what the wildlife and animals are doing. Often their senses are keener than humans
• If u are at sea and you hear a tsunami warning stay out at sea, you are safe there
• Do not drive when evacuation your home….WALK!!
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Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga
• Teach your family about tsunami and where to evacuate. You should not pickup your school children from school in an event of a tsunami
• All tsunami are dangerous. Large or Small. Heed warnings at all times
• Tsunami is not just one wave. It is a series of waves and the first is not necessarily the biggest
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Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga
• If you see the tide receding after a major earthquake..RUN!!
• Do not attempt to go and see a tsunami. On level ground, when you see a tsunami is usually too late to escape
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MALO AUPITO