weather flying and the ipad
TRANSCRIPT
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John ZimmermanSporty’s Pilot Shop
Scott DennstaedtForeFlight
Weather Flying and the iPadPre-flight and in-flight tips
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John Zimmerman
• Active GA Pilot Comm/Multi/Inst/Heli
• Vice President Sporty’s Pilot Shop
• Publisher iPad Pilot News
Weather Flying and the iPad
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Scott Dennstaedt
• Active GA Pilot Flight Instructor
• Weather Scientist ForeFlight
• Former Meteorologist National Weather Service
Weather Flying and the iPad
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•Medium to long range weather planning
•Using Model Output Statistics (MOS)
•ADS-B weather 101
• In-flight ADS-B weather tips
•Real world scenarios
presentation overviewWeather Flying and the iPad
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Medium- to long-range weather planning
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Weather Planning
• Practically speaking, alwaysoccurs shortly before the proposed flight
• Is that always true?
Go or stay decision
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Weather Planning
• What about planning the return trip?
• This may often influence our decision
• Tuesday looks great, but the return trip on Friday is questionable
• We don’t want to engender “get-there-it is”
Decision time
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Weather Planning
• Stack the deck in our favor
• Fly on the best weather days
• Avoid bad weather days
• Easier said than done!
You know the drill…
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Weather Planning
• Leverage the medium- to long-range forecasts against our busy schedule
• Pilots are weak at this:
• Not part of their primary training
• Pilots don’t know what to look for
• How do we get specifics like ceiling, vis, icing, turbulence, etc. for the longer range?
How do we do this?
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Weather Planning
• Medium- to long-range forecasts
• 2 or more days
• Short-range forecasts
• 6 hours to 2 days
• NOWcast
• Less than 6 hours
Broad-brush definitions
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Weather Planning
• Need wiggle room in the schedule
• A go or stay decision is often more challenging when you have little or no flexibility
• So, how can you gain more utility from your aircraft without compromising safety?
• Learn how to read the long-range crystal ball
Time management
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Weather Planning
• Quantifying uncertainty
• Forecasters quantify their uncertainty through probabilistic forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts
2 hour Precipitation Potential
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Weather Planning
• Precipitation areas
• “Hotspots” for concern
• IFR conditions, turbulence, icing, wind and convection
• Can be harmless
• Adverse weather in precipitation-free areas
What to look for
6 hour QPF
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Weather Planning
• Weather patterns and signatures
• Upper level troughs, surface highs, mountain waves
What to look for
Surface Analysis500 mb
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Weather Planning
• Surface forecast out to 7 days
• Look for large high pressure areas
• Back side of high pressure is favorable for radiation fog in theearly morning hours
Surface charts
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Weather Planning
• Low pressure areas
• Wrap-around moisture aroundthe Great Lakes
• Behind cold front passage
• Stratocumulus clouds
• Mountain wave
Surface charts
Stratocumulus clouds
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Weather Planning
• 6 hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
• Issued by the WPC
• Quantity of precipitation over a6 hour period out to 3 days
QPF
6 hour QPF
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Weather Planning
• 12 hour Probability of Precipitation
• Also issued by the WPC
• Valid time ends at the validtime on the chart
12 hour PoP
12 hour PoP
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Weather Planning
• 500 mb chart (~18,000 ft)
• Troughs and ridges
• Trough axis (red)
• Ridge axis (blue)
• Disturbed weather downwindof trough axis
• Fair weather upwind of trough axis
Constant Pressure Charts
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Using Model Output Statistics
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Model Output Statistics
• Available in ForeFlight App Store release
• Tap on any airport marker on Map view
• Tap Forecast
• Tap MOS
Finding MOS
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Model Output Statistics
• From Airports view
• Tap Weather
• Tap MOS
Finding MOS
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Model Output Statistics
• Site-specific automated forecast
• For an airport or reporting station
• Combines NOAA model forecast withgeo-climatic data
• TAF-like forecast out to 3 days for over2,100 stations
• Civilian and military
What is MOS?
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Model Output Statistics
• Provides aviation-specific guidance
• Ceiling, sky cover, visibility, wind speedand direction, precipitation type andthunderstorms
• ForeFlight created a proprietary algorithmto improve on the NOAA version of MOS
What is MOS?
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Model Output Statistics
• Updated hourly for most stations
• About 300 stations are updated every six hours
• New forecast available about 30 minutes past the hour
MOS updates
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Model Output Statistics
• Only available in the US and territories
• Is NOT an area or zone forecast
• Does not predict temporary conditions
• Won’t forecast non-convective LLWS or NSW
• Can’t predict variable winds
• Can’t distinguish between rain and drizzle
• Can’t distinguish between FZRA, FZDZ and PL
• Just says “freezing precip”
• Never amended
MOS limitations
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In-flight weather with ADS-B
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Stratus
• Subscription-free ADS-B weather
• Built-in WAAS GPS
• Dual band ADS-B traffic
• Built-in AHRS for backup attitude
• Built-in 8-hour battery
• No wires or antennas (WiFi)
• $899, no subscriptions
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ADS-B coverageADS-B In – how does it work?
FAA estimateat 1500 ft.
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ADS-B coverageADS-B In – how does it work?
FAA estimateat 5000 ft.
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ADS-B weather productsADS-B In – how does it work?
Factoid:
Four types of ADS-B ground stations, arranged in this
pattern.
Station Type Weather Products and Range
Surface
(Only at select airports)
500 NM winds and temperature aloft, 100 NM METAR, TAF, SIGMET, NOTAM, 150 NM Regional NEXRAD
Low altitude
(67% of airborne stations)
500 NM winds and temperature aloft250 NM METARs, TAFs, AIRMET, SIGMET, PIREP, SUA150 NM regional NEXRAD100 NM NOTAM (no CONUS NEXRAD)
Medium altitude
(22% of airborne stations)
Entire CONUS NEXRAD,750 NM winds and temperatures aloft,375 NM METARs, TAFs, AIRMET, SIGMET, PIREP, SUA, 200 NM regional NEXRAD100 NM NOTAM
High altitude
(11% of airborne stations)
Entire CONUS NEXRAD,1000 NM winds and temperature aloft,all 158 CONUS Class B/C airport METAR/TAF500 NM AIRMET, SIGMET, PIREP, SUA250 NM regional NEXRAD100 NM NOTAM
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ADS-B weather timingADS-B In – how does it work?Product Range * Transmission Interval
CONUS NEXRAD composite reflectivity (low resolution)
Contiguous US 15 minutes
Regional NEXRAD composite reflectivity (medium resolution)
150 to 250 nm 2.5 minutes (5 minute update)
AIRMETs / SIGMETs 100 to 500 nm 5 minutesMETARs 100 to 500 nm, all class B and C
airports5 minutes
NOTAM(D), FDC NOTAM, TFRs
100 nm 5 minutes
PIREPS 250 to 500 nm 10 minutesSpecial use airspace 500 nm 10 minutesTAFs 100 to 500 nm, all class B and C
airports10 minutes
Winds and Temps aloft 500 to 1000 nm 10 minutesSportys.com/Stratus
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ADS-B vs. XM WeatherADS-B In – how does it work?Data ADS-B XM
METARS Small airports within 250 – 500 nm and all class B and C airports
Nationwide
TAFS Within 250-500 nm NationwideWinds / Temps Aloft Within 500-1,000 nm NationwidePIREPS Within 250-500 nm NationwideRadar Low-resolution CONUS (lower 48)
Medium-resolution regional within 250 nm
High-resolution nationwide
AIRMETS / SIGMETS Within 250-500 nm NationwideCoverage US, Puerto Rico, and Guam US and CanadaCloud satellite image None YesNOTAMs Within 100 nm NoneTFRs Within 100 nm NationwideSpecial use airspace status
Within 250-500 nm None
Cost Free (your tax dollars at work) $35-$55 monthly subscription fee
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ADS-B vs. XM WeatherADS-B In – how does it work?
XM ADS-B National ADS-B Regional
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ADS-B In Action
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Turn on weather with map layersForeFlight and Stratus
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Use different chart layersForeFlight and Stratus
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METARs and TAFsForeFlight and Stratus
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METARs and TAFsForeFlight and Stratus
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TFRsForeFlight and Stratus
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AIRMETs and SIGMETsForeFlight and Stratus
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Pilot ReportsForeFlight and Stratus
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Winds AloftForeFlight and Stratus
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NOTAMsForeFlight and Stratus
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Tips for Flying with ADS-B
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Tips and Tricks
1. Turn ADS-B receiver on
2. Go to Settings app on iPad,connect via WiFi
3. Open ForeFlight
4. Turn on weather overlays
Connecting to your iPad
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Tips and Tricks
• Take some time to find the right spot – in your airplane
• Line of sight for ADS-B (ground based)
• View of the sky for GPS (satellite based)
• Keep it steady for AHRS (if applicable)
• Direct sunlight?
Location, location, location!
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Tips and Tricks
• Make it a habit to check ADS-B status
• Battery life
• Age of weather products
• GPS reception
• LED dimming
Checking status
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Tips and TricksShow ADS-B ground stations
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Tips and TricksMeasure tool
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Tips and TricksRubber band flight planning
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Tips and TricksRemember the delay
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Tips and TricksUse your eyeballs!!!
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Scenarios
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Scenario 1What you see is what you get, part 1
• Watching a line develop from afar
• Decided to go north
• “Keep an eye on it.”
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Scenario 1What you see is what you get, part 1
• Radar still looks clear around the north side of this line
• Keep the speed up
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Scenario 1What you see is what you get, part 1
• There’s a huge hole there
• Right????
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Scenario 1What you see is what you get, part 1
• Wrong!
• Eyes always get a veto over datalink weather.
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Scenario 2What you see is what you get, part 2
• Must be some build-ups
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Scenario 2What you see is what you get, part 2
• Wrong!
• Anomalous Propagation
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Scenario 3Animate the radar
• Phew – the storms aremoving out just in time.
• Lines always move fromwest to east, right?
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Scenario 3Animate the radar
• Wrong!
• Storms were saggingsouth, not movingeast as expected
• Animate radar to seereal trends.
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Scenario 4“Unable”
• ATC: “I need to vector you southeast of the ILS for traffic.”
• Me: “Unable due to weather.”
• Information in context:
• Radar
• Approach chart
• Airplane position
• Route
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Scenario 5Deviate 100 miles in advance
• Don’t fly up to the weather,then deviate 10 degrees here,20 degrees there
• Change your flight plan andmiss it all
• ATC likes this