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West Coast Publishing October 2014 Ocean Policy File

West Coast Publishing

Ocean 2014October

Edited by Jim Hanson

ResearchersAlex Zendeh, Alyssa Lucas-Bolin, Ben Menzies, Eric Robinson,

Greta Stahl, Matt Stannard, William James Taylor

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Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase

its non-military exploration and/or development of the Earth's oceans.




WEST COAST DEBATE

OCEAN 2014-2015SEPTEMBER

Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its non-military exploration and/or development of the Earth's oceans.

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Table of ContentsResolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its non-military exploration and/or development of the Earth's oceans..............................................................................2

WEST COAST DEBATE..............................................................................................................................3

Table of Contents........................................................................................................................................4

Dems Will Win.............................................................................................................................................8

Dems will win the Senate - General.....................................................................................................9

Dems will win the Senate - Fundraising.............................................................................................10

Dems will win the Senate - Polls........................................................................................................12

Dems will win the Senate - ISIS..........................................................................................................13

GOP Wins..................................................................................................................................................14

GOP wins the Senate – Polls..............................................................................................................15

GOP wins the Senate – Iowa..............................................................................................................17

GOP wins Senate – Reagan Seniors...................................................................................................18

GOP wins Senate – A2: Fundraising..................................................................................................20

Ballast Water Pollution Yes Problem.........................................................................................................21

Ballast Water=Invasive Species..........................................................................................................22



Ballast Water = Food System I/L........................................................................................................25

Ballast Water=Economic Downfall.....................................................................................................26

Status Quo Doesn’t Solve..................................................................................................................27

Status Quo Doesn’t Solve..................................................................................................................28

A2 Mid Ocean Exchange Solves.........................................................................................................29

Current Legislation Fails.....................................................................................................................30

Disease..............................................................................................................................................31

Disease..............................................................................................................................................32

Ballast Water Pollution Not Problem.........................................................................................................33

Alt Cause-Aquariums.........................................................................................................................34



Status Quo/Warming Solves..............................................................................................................37




Status Quo-Mid-Ocean Solves...........................................................................................................38

Status Quo Solves-International Regulations.....................................................................................39

Status Quo-U.S. Policy Solves............................................................................................................40

Invasive Species Defense...................................................................................................................41

Current Policy Solves.........................................................................................................................42

Current Policy Solves.........................................................................................................................43

State Legislation Solves Now.............................................................................................................44

International Agreements Solve........................................................................................................45

OCS (Outer Continental Shelf) Aff..............................................................................................................46

OCS Good—Lowers Oil Prices............................................................................................................47




OCS Good—US Economy...................................................................................................................51

OCS Good—US Economy...................................................................................................................52

OCS Good—US Economy/ Oil Dependence.......................................................................................53

OCS Good—US Economy/ Oil Dependence.......................................................................................54

OCS Good—Food Prices.....................................................................................................................55



OCS Good—Hegemony......................................................................................................................58

OCS Good—Hegemony......................................................................................................................59

OCS Good—Russia Economy.............................................................................................................60



OCS Good—India Economy................................................................................................................63

OCS Good—India Economy................................................................................................................64

OCS Good—China Economy..............................................................................................................65



OCS Good—Peak Oil Not True...........................................................................................................68

OCS Good—Peak Oil Not True...........................................................................................................69

OCS Good—UQ—No Drilling Now.....................................................................................................70

OCS Good—UQ—No Drilling Now.....................................................................................................71

OCS Good—UQ—Shocks coming.......................................................................................................72






OCS Good—A/T Environment............................................................................................................75

OCS Good—A/T Renewables DA........................................................................................................76

OCS Good—A/T Renewables DA........................................................................................................77

OCS (Outer Continental Shelf) Bad – Neg).................................................................................................78

OCS Bad—A/T “Supply Shortage”......................................................................................................79

OCS Bad—A/T “Supply Shortage”......................................................................................................80

OCS Bad—A/T “Lowers Oil Prices”.....................................................................................................81



OCS Bad—A/T “Oil Dependence”......................................................................................................84

OCS Bad—A/T “Oil Dependence”......................................................................................................85

OCS Bad—A/T “Economy”.................................................................................................................86

OCS Bad—A/T “Economy—Jobs”.......................................................................................................87

OCS Bad—A/T “Economy—Jobs”.......................................................................................................88

OCS Bad—A/T “Manufacturing”........................................................................................................89

OCS Bad—A/T “China Economy”.......................................................................................................90

OCS Bad—A/T “India Economy”........................................................................................................91

OCS Bad—A/T “Food Prices”.............................................................................................................92

OCS Bad—A/T “Food Prices”.............................................................................................................93

OCS Bad—Renewables Shift—Link....................................................................................................94

OCS Bad—Renewables Shift—Link....................................................................................................95

OCS Bad—Renewables Shift—Impact................................................................................................96



OCS Bad—Economy/ Environment....................................................................................................99

OCS Bad—Climate Change...............................................................................................................100

OCS Bad—Oil Spills..........................................................................................................................101

OCS Bad—Oil Spills..........................................................................................................................102

OCS Bad—Hegemony......................................................................................................................103

OCS Bad—Hegemony......................................................................................................................104

OCS Bad—Russian Economy............................................................................................................105






OCS Bad—Russian Economy—A/T “Inefficient Oil Spending Now”.................................................108




Dems Will Win




Dems will win the Senate - General

Dems can still win: fundraising, mobilization, and recruitmentStephen Dinan, Staff Writer, October 1, 2014, “Nancy Pelosi sounds pessimistic note about Dems’ chances to take House,” The Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/1/nancy-pelosi-sounds-pessimistic-note-about-dems-ch/, Accessed 10/1/2014Democrats would need to win 17 seats to gain control of the House, but prognosticators predict it is Republicans instead who will gain House seats in November’s midterm election. Still, despite the tough playing field, Democrats are doing better at financing their candidates, which could help keep their losses to a minimum. They use their politics of personal destruction, which is their stock in trade. “We have out-mobilized them, we have out-recruited them, we have out-raised them to a shameful extent, and they’re desperate,” Mrs. Pelosi said. There’s a precedent for Democrats’ doom-and-gloom predictions to be belied at the ballot box. In 2005, Sen. Harry Reid, Democrats’ leader in that chamber, had said it would take a “miracle” for his party to win control of the Senate in the 2006 elections. But buoyed by the backlash against then-President George W. Bush, Democrats did win enough seats to take control — something they’ve held for the eight years since.

Senate control still up for grabs but Dems have several advantages to maintain controlMark Z. Barabak and Lisa Mascaro, Staff Writers September 29, 2014, “As election nears, control of Senate looks surprisingly uncertain,” LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-2014-election-20140929-story.html#page=1, Accessed 9/30/2014Just over a month before the midterm election, control of the U.S. Senate remains surprisingly up for grabs as Democrats parlay a financial edge and other advantages to battle history and a strong anti-Obama tide. Republicans still enjoy the more secure position. The GOP is almost certain to win open-seat contests in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, getting them halfway to the six seats needed to win a majority and gain control. But the party's candidates have yet to put away any of the 10 or so most competitive Senate races, buoying Democratic hopes they can hang on to at least one chamber of Congress despite what appeared, at the start of this election year, to be long odds. In Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska, where President Obama's approval ratings are particularly low, Democratic incumbents have kept their uphill races within striking distance. It helps that the candidates — Mary L. Landrieu, Mark Pryor and Mark Begich — come from prominent political families, making them familiar brand names in their respective states. But even in North Carolina, first-term Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, a prime Republican target, has clung to a small but consistent lead in recent voter surveys.



http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-2014-election-20140929-story.html#page=1


http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/nancy-pelosi/

http://www.washingtontimes.com/staff/stephen-dinan/


Dems will win the Senate - Fundraising

Fundraising gives Democrats a huge edgeMark Z. Barabak and Lisa Mascaro, Staff Writers September 29, 2014, “As election nears, control of Senate looks surprisingly uncertain,” LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-2014-election-20140929-story.html#page=1, Accessed 9/30/2014Part of the reason is money. Democrats, unexpectedly, have had more of it this year than Republicans. And part of it is mechanics — allocating resources, targeting voters, getting them to the polls — which national Democrats have excelled at over the last decade. In that time, Democrats have defeated 12 sitting Republican senators. Republicans have ousted just three Democratic incumbents, two of them in the last midterm election under Obama, in 2010.

Even Karl Rove and Mitch McConnell say GOP can’t win without closing the fundraising gapMichael Beckel, Staff Writer, September 25, 2014, “Senate Democrats Leading TV Ad Blitz As Election Approaches,” Time http://time.com/3426909/senate-campaign-dscc-ad-television-spending/, Accessed 9/29/2014The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ruled the TV airwaves last week, even trumping the conservative super PACs and Koch brothers-backed nonprofits they’ve accused of trying to buy elections. The DSCC—an official arm of the Democratic Party—aired about 3,800 ads in U.S. Senate races across eight states, according to a newCenter for Public Integrity analysis of preliminary estimates provided by Kantar Media/CMAG, an advertising tracking service. That was more than double the number of ads run by its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, from Tuesday, Sept. 16, through Monday, Sept. 22. Such dominance isn’t shocking against the backdrop of Senate Republicans’ fundraising hiccups: the NRSC ended August with about $5 million less in the bank than the DSCC, according to the groups’ most recent campaign finance filings. “It’s critical that the DSCC use our sizable fundraising advantage over the NRSC to help bridge the gap and stop the Kochs from buying the U.S. Senate,” said DSCC spokesman Justin Barasky, referring to the conservative billionaires Charles and David Koch whose political network has also been a major player in competitive Senate races. NRSC spokeswoman Brook Hougesen did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but numerous recent fundraising pleas from the group have bemoaned the Democrats’ financial advantage.“The midterm environment is toxic for Democrats, yet there’s a chance Republicans may not take the Senate,” wrote GOP strategist Karl Rove in a fundraising message for the NRSC on Wednesday. “Why? The Democrats have a huge money advantage.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., struck a similar tone in a separate recent email: “If we are unable to close the fundraising gap, Republicans risk being outspent 3-to-1, 5-to-1, even 6-to-1 in several key battleground races.”

Fundraising means Democrats will have the advantageJason Easley, Staff Writer, September 16, 2014, Democrats Have Their Best August In History and Strengthen Their Position To Keep The Senate, PoliticsUSA, http://www.politicususa.com/2014/09/16/democrats-august-history-strengthen-position-senate.html, Accessed 9/29/2014Having money is the first step towards keeping the majority. The next step is for Democrats to mobilize and get their voters out to vote in November. There is no doubt about it. Democrats are doing much better than the pundits and “experts” predicted. Republicans were hoping for an early wave that would



http://www.publicintegrity.org/2014/09/04/15459/gop-s-senate-hopes-energized-koch-network-ad-blitz

http://kantarmedia.us/product/cmag-advertising-data-reports-ad-alerts

http://www.publicintegrity.org/

http://www.publicintegrity.org/2014/09/02/15447/whos-buying-senate

http://www.publicintegrity.org/2014/09/02/15447/whos-buying-senate

http://time.com/3426909/senate-campaign-dscc-ad-television-spending/




point to them locking up control of the Senate by now. Instead of a national election, the 2014 contest for the Senate has turned into a state by state battle with no national themes. This is not the kind of election that Republicans wanted to contest. It is not an easy path, but Democrats have a much better chance of keeping the majority than the political chattering class ever expected.




Dems will win the Senate - Polls

Despite GOP gains and recent polls, fundraising will increase voter turnout for DemsLuke Brinker, Staff Writer, September 30, 2014, “Midterms Digest: Senate Democrats’ key advantage,” Salon.com, http://www.salon.com/2014/09/30/midterms_digest_senate_democrats%E2%80%99_key_advantage/, Accessed 9/30/2014With Republicans now favored to pick up Democratic-held Senate seats in a handful of red states and polls showing increasingly competitive contests in blue states Iowa and Colorado, Republicans have multiple paths to winning back the Senate majority this year. But with only five weeks until Election Day, Democrats have one crucial advantage heading into the home stretch: they’re investing far more in the ground game. Writing for the New York Times’ Upshot vertical, Derek Willis crunches Federal Election Commission numbers and finds that Democrats have outspent Republicans on in-state staff and voter turnout operations in the key Senate battlegrounds of Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina. In those four states and Michigan – where Democrat Gary Peters is the favorite over Republican Terri Lynn Land – Democratic campaigns and allied groups have spent $4.8 million on field staff, voter registration efforts, raising awareness of absentee and early voting options, and ensuring that voters show up on Election Day. GOP groups, meanwhile, have spent only $369,000 on the ground game in those states. It’s a truism that elections all come down to turnout. But the strength of candidates’ ground games will be particularly crucial in closely fought contests like North Carolina, where Sen. Kay Hagan hopes to mobilize African-American voters to stave off Thom Tillis, and Colorado, where Sen. Mark Udall needs a robust Latino turnout to fend off a spirited challenge from Republican congressman Cory Gardner.



http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/upshot/democrats-are-spending-more-on-the-ground-in-key-senate-races.html?src=twr&_r=1&abt=0002&abg=0


Dems will win the Senate - ISIS

Obama’s ISIS actions are swinging the election in Democrat favorJeremy Diamond, Staff Writer, September 30, 2014, “CNN Poll: Big swing for Democrats but not where they need it,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/30/politics/congress-isis-poll-9-30/, Accessed 9/30/2014In a generic ballot among likely voters, Democrats edged out Republicans 47-45%, a 6-point swing from a CNN poll three weeks ago when likely voters favored the Republicans by a 4-point margin. The Democrats' advantage is within the poll's 3.5% margin of error. The "generic ballot" question which asks Americans to choose between an unnamed Democrat and an unnamed Republican in their vote for U.S. House, suggests a shift toward the Democrats nationally, if not in key races in key states. The poll comes a week after the U.S. launched airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, and while poll respondents overwhelmingly think the economy is the more important issue, they gave Congress low marks for how it handled the ISIS threat and have more faith in President Barack Obama than GOP leaders to set the military policy to deal with the militant Islamist group. "That may explain why the Democrats have gained strength on the national "generic ballot" question," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.




GOP Wins




GOP wins the Senate – Polls

GOP will get the 6 seats to control the SenateDave Jolly, Staff Writer, September 30, 2014, “Polls Show Democrats Losing Grip on Senate Control,” http://lastresistance.com/7542/polls-show-democrats-losing-grip-senate-control/, Accessed 10/1/2014Going into this year’s midterm elections, Republicans would have to win six seats from the Democrats in order to take control over the Senate. This is harder than you think since only about a third of the 100 senate seats are up for election. With barely a month to go before Americans head to the polls, it appeared that Democrats had actually started to gain some ground in many of the polls. However this past week has seen a marked change in those polls that are now swinging to the Republican side. This is causing a growing number of political pundits to believe that the Republicans have a realistic chance of gaining the 6 seats they need.

The GOP will gain the 6 seats they need for controlBrett LoGiurato, Staff Writer, September 29, 2014, “This Weekend Was A Disaster For Senate Democrats,” http://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekend-utter-disaster-senate-democrats-125911135.html, Accessed 10/1/2014"New polls this weekend were almost entirely bad for the Democrats, who are now in danger of losing six to eight of their Senate seats while picking up — at most — one GOP seat," said Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist at Potomac Research Group. "The GOP needs a net gain of six seats to control the Senate, and that appears increasingly likely."

Democrats will solidly lose the SenateBill Scher, Staff Writer, September 30, 2014, “Good news Democrats, you’re going to lose!,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/good-news-democrats-youre-going-to-lose-111467.html#.VCxEoPlr6So, Accessed 10/1/2014If the latest round of polls is accurate, Democrats will lose nearly every competitive Senate race, giving Republicans full control of Congress for the first time in 10 years. This is excellent news for Democrats. Instead of another two years of the same old gridlock that has turned voters off of both parties, Democrats will get to kick back with a large tub of buttery popcorn and watch the Republican soap opera hit peak suds.

Democrats are losing the Senate. GOP only needs one more seat for controlAaron Blake, et al., Staff Writers, September 26, 2014, “These five races will decide control of the Senate,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/26/these-five-races-will-decide-control-of-the-senate/Accessed 10/1/2014The rest of the competitive Senate races seem to be moving in a clear direction. Democratic pickup chances in Kentucky and, to a lesser extent, Georgia seem to be fading. Democratic open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia are gone. Democratic strategists are growing increasingly pessimistic about their chances in Arkansas and Louisiana. Scott Brown increasingly has a chance in New Hampshire, but it's hard to see him winning before any of the four Republican candidates running in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. Add it all up and you get a Republican Party teetering on the edge of a majority -- needing six seats and with at least five either in the bag or leaning their way. The




five seats mentioned above are the majority makers -- or breakers. Republicans need two of the five. Keep your eye on them.

Key seats needed will go Republican and Obama can’t helpDoyle McManus, Staff Writer, September 30, 2014, “Why so many voters care so little about the midterm elections,” LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-mcmanus-column-midterm-elections-20141001-column.html, Accessed 9/30/2014It's easy to see why Democrats are campaigning that way: They're stuck on defense. The Senate seats they need to win to keep the Senate are mostly in states that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012: Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska. For those candidates, wrapping themselves in a national Democratic agenda would be electoral suicide. And there's certainly nothing the president can do to help them. One frequent refrain of Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Kentucky Democrat who's trying to unseat McConnell, is "I am not Barack Obama."

Despite Democrat polling gains, these aren’t voters in key statesJeremy Diamond, Staff Writer, September 30, 2014, “CNN Poll: Big swing for Democrats but not where they need it,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/30/politics/congress-isis-poll-9-30/, Accessed 9/30/2014Five weeks before the November midterm elections, voters give Democrats an edge over Republicans, according to a CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday. But the poll also indicates most of Democrats' gains are coming from the Northeast and not from the parts of the country where they're locked in tight contests that could give Republicans control of the Senate.

Bad results are the best Dems can hope forMark Z. Barabak and Lisa Mascaro, Staff Writers September 29, 2014, “As election nears, control of Senate looks surprisingly uncertain,” LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-2014-election-20140929-story.html#page=1, Accessed 9/30/2014Historically, the midterm vote has been a referendum on the president, and this one appears to be no exception. There are three typical outcomes for the party in the White House, said Charlie Cook, a longtime nonpartisan campaign analyst: "Bad; really bad; and really, really bad." To a great extent Democrats are simply fighting for the least bad result, which would be clinging to the Senate by the narrowest of margins. (Republicans are expected to modestly pad their majority in the House and could lose a handful of governor's seats.)






GOP wins the Senate – Iowa

Democrats are losing the Senate. New polls in Iowa proveBrett LoGiurato, Staff Writer, September 29, 2014, “This Weekend Was A Disaster For Senate Democrats,” http://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekend-utter-disaster-senate-democrats-125911135.html, Accessed 10/1/2014Just as momentum was beginning to swing toward Democrats in retaining control of the Senate this November, the past 10 days — particularly the past weekend — served as a setback to those chances. The big punch to the gut for Senate Democrats: A poll of the Iowa Senate race that showed the Republican candidate, Joni Ernst, pulling ahead to a 6-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. The poll, conducted by the firm Selzer & Co. for The Des Moines Register, is considered one of the most reliable in the state and the nation. The Democrats' path toward retaining control of the Senate becomes much harder without a win in Iowa. And that reflects in the predictive models, including ones that have been more favorable to Democrats this cycle.

Dems will lose Iowa and that tanks their chances of retaining the SenateChuck Todd, et al., Staff Writers, September 29, 2014, “Five Weeks to Go: It's Crunch Time for Midterms,” NBC News, http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/five-weeks-go-its-crunch-time-midterms-n213871, Accessed 10/1/2014Not only is Election Day five weeks away, but early voting has ALREADY BEGUN in Iowa. And the perception of the very competitive Senate race in Iowa is starting to get away from Democrats. On Saturday night, a Des Moines Register poll showed Republican Joni Ernst with a six-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley among likely voters, 44%-38%. And the next day, the coverage of the first Braley-Ernst debate appeared to favor Ernst. The Des Moines Register: “Braley went on the attack against a rival who is ahead by 6 points in the new Iowa Poll on the race, but front-runner Ernst responded in kind in their first face-to-face match-up.” Democrats continue to have the better ground game in the Hawkeye State (see the early-vote returns and ballot requests), and other polling suggests that the race is much closer than what the Des Moines Register poll showed. What’s more, Ernst hasn’t run as good of a race as many believe in DC (she’s taken some very conservative positions). But if Braley loses this race, he can’t blame anyone but himself. Still, he can lose the campaign (at least perception-wise) but still win the election (due to the Democrats’ ground-game superiority). And here’s why Iowa is so important: If Democrats lose it, they will have to sweep North Carolina, Alaska, and Kansas (and hope Orman caucuses with the Democrats) to hold on to the Senate. In other words, losing Iowa gives them no margin for error.



http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2014/09/28/braley-ernst-debate-simpson-college/16396423/

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/2014/09/27/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/16351013/

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/2014/09/27/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/16351013/

http://www.businessinsider.com/sam-wang-nate-silver-forecasts-dem-senate-hold-2014-9


GOP wins Senate – Reagan Seniors

Reagan Senior vote will overwhelm Dems turnout for RepublicansJoshua Green, Staff Writer, September 25, 2014, “How the Rise of Reagan Seniors Helps Republicans in November,” Businessweek, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-25/reagan-loving-senior-voters-give-republicans-an-advantage-in-midterm-elections-and-maybe-control-of-congress, Accessed 10/1/2014With less than six weeks to go until the midterm elections, control of the Senate is up for grabs. But whatever the outcome, Republicans will end up with significant gains in both houses of Congress. That’s because the GOP has a demographic advantage in midterm elections that mirrors the one Democrats enjoy from the rising wave of young, female, and Hispanic voters who reliably turn out in presidential elections. The Republicans’ advantage: old people. Unlike Hispanic voters, who are increasing as a share of the electorate, the proportion of older voters in midterm elections has long remained stable at about 25 percent. What’s changed is their political views. The generation of voters that came of age during the Franklin D. Roosevelt years—reliable Democrats—is being replaced by a new generation with political views formed during the Ronald Reagan years. These seniors have different ideas and expectations about the role of government in American life and, unsurprisingly, are much more inclined to vote Republican. Call it the new politics of the old.

Reagan Seniors tank Democrat chances for two reasonsJoshua Green, Staff Writer, September 25, 2014, “How the Rise of Reagan Seniors Helps Republicans in November,” Businessweek, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-25/reagan-loving-senior-voters-give-republicans-an-advantage-in-midterm-elections-and-maybe-control-of-congress, Accessed 10/1/2014The rise of the Reagan seniors hurts Democrats in two ways. First, unlike the Roosevelt seniors, they weren’t shaped by the Great Depression and didn’t benefit from government programs to nearly the same extent. This has been true throughout their lives, including in retirement. “Reagan seniors don’t rely on Social Security and Medicare for as much of their retirement [as Roosevelt seniors],” says Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, “and along with being less reliant on government programs, they’re more likely to resist paying for them.” Reagan seniors are also wealthier than their predecessors and therefore more sensitive to tax rates, which further inclines them toward Republicans.

GOP will gain new support with Obamacare cancellationsDave Jolly, Staff Writer, September 30, 2014, “Polls Show Democrats Losing Grip on Senate Control,” http://lastresistance.com/7542/polls-show-democrats-losing-grip-senate-control/, Accessed 10/1/2014I’m sure the polls will continue to swing in favor of Republicans as more Americans start to receive cancellation notices for their new Obamacare policies and others receive hefty premium increases. The reason for cancellations is that many insurance companies have dropped a number of policies that were available last year and other companies have pulled out of the exchanges altogether. Additionally, employers are looking at the enforcement of the employer mandate in January and as many as 20% of manufacturers and service companies are shifting most of their employees from full time to part time. Imagine losing 25% of your pay along with your employer provided healthcare coverage. That will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of many Americans as they head to the polls 35 days from today.



http://nypost.com/2014/09/28/on-its-one-year-anniversary-obamacare-gets-an-f/

http://nypost.com/2014/09/28/on-its-one-year-anniversary-obamacare-gets-an-f/


GOP wins Senate – A2: Fundraising

Fundraising won’t be enough for Dems to fend off RepublicansDerek Willis, Staff Writer, September 30, 2014, “Democrats Are Spending More on the Ground in Key Senate Races,” http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/upshot/democrats-are-spending-more-on-the-ground-in-key-senate-races.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0, Accessed 10/1/2014The amount spent to help G.O.P. candidates doesn’t include field work by Americans for Prosperity and other political nonprofits that do not have to report their spending. Americans for Prosperity does report some of its broadcast advertisements, but Federal Election Commission rules do not require disclosure of ground operations or direct mail. Although much of its spending represents broadcast ads, it also has more than doubled its field staff compared with the 2010 elections. Even if it decided to spend several million dollars in a race, it could not coordinate its work with a party or campaign (the same rule applies to super PACs). A spokesman for Americans for Prosperity did not respond to a request for comment. The Democrats’ advantage in field work investment doesn’t guarantee victory in any of the closest races, and the continued focus on television and radio spending by Republicans and their backers may be enough to carry them to a Senate majority in an electoral climate favorable to them.



http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/06/13/americans-for-prosperity-ground-game-senate-elections/10416055/

http://americansforprosperity.org/newsroom


Ballast Water Pollution Yes Problem




Ballast Water=Invasive Species

Ballast water causes invasive species problems AND no current tech solvesNahui Zhang, Environmental Engineering Institute, et al [Zhitao Zhang, Mindong Bai, Cao Chen, Xiangying Meng, Yiping Tian], 2012 “Evaluation of the ecotoxicity and biological efficacy of ship ballast water treatment based on hydroxyl radicals technique,” Marine Pollution Bulletin (64) 2012 2742-2748, ScienceDirectBallast water discharges have historically been a major source of nonindigenous species introductions

to marine ecosystems (Albert et. Al, 2010) and are recognized internationally as vectors for the translocation of invasive marine organisms (GEF-UNDP-IMO GloBallast Partnerships and IOI, 2009; Ruiz et. Al., 1997; Gollasch et. Al, 2000, Carlton,

2013). The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been actively engaged in seeking a solution to the ballast water problems. The aim of the International Convention for the Control and Management of Ship’s Ballast Water and Sediments, hereinafter referred to as “the Ballast Water Convention” (IMO, 2004), is to reduce the risk of introducing non-native species, and also to enhance protection of the marine environment and biodiversity. Since the adoption of the Convention and more particularly Guidelines G8 for approval of ballast water management systems

in 2005, a substantial number of treatment systems have been put into development globally . Many systems do not come to public light until they apply for Basic Approval of Guidelines G9 by the Maritime Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) (Lloyd’s Register 2013.) ¶ The available technologies for ballast water treatment can generally be summarized as ultraviolent (UV) irradiation,

electrolysis, and ozonization. However, no method for ballast water treatment currently in use is completely

biologically effective, environmentally safe, or cost-efficient . (Gregg and Hallegraeff, 2007). For example, high efficiency US irradiation depends on low turbidity and high clarity water and unfouled quartz sleeves to achieve good UV transmission through the water (Lloyd’s Register, 2011). For electrolyosis, the efficiency varies according to water conditions (salinity, pH, temperature, etc.) and by-products, especially hydrogen (H2), have a potential risk of

explosion onboard (Bai et. Al 2012). Ozonization is especially effective at killing micro-organisms, it can produce bromate and other by-products which may cause adverse environmental impacts (Lloyd’s Register 2011).

Therefore, it is important to develop more effective ballast water treatment methods.





Ballast water causes huge invasive species problems-And the impact to biodiversity is NOT reversible Dandu Pughiuc, Head of the Marine Biosafety Section, International Maritime Organisation, 2010, “Invasive species: ballast water battles,” http://www.imo.org/KnowledgeCentre/PapersAndArticlesByIMOStaff/Documents/Invasive%20species%20by%20DP.pdf, ALB]With the introduction of steel-hulled vessels and the use of water as ballast, the problem of invasive species became even more pertinent due to the larger quantities of ballast transported and, implicitly, the increased number of species moved from one place to another. The development of larger and faster ships completing their voyages in ever shorter times, combined with rapidly increasing international trade, meant that the natural barriers to the dispersal of species across the oceans were being reduced .

As a result, the spread of invasive species is now recognized as one of the greatest threats to the

ecological and economic well being of the planet . These species are causing enormous damage to bio-diversity. The valuable natural riches of our planet, upon which we depend, are under threat . Direct and

indirect health effects are becoming increasingly serious and the damage to nature is often irreversible. Aquatic invasions-considered the second greatest threat to global bio-diversity after habitat loss-are virtually irreversible , and increase in severity over time.

Invasive species impact of ballast water is empirically provenMelanie Frazier, Western Ecology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, A. Whitman Miller, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, and Gregory M. Ruiz, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, 2013, “Linking science and policy to prevent the spread of invasive species from the ballast water of ships,” Ecological Applications, March Human activities are causing the global redistribution of species at historically unprecedented rates. In marine (and some freshwater) environments, many nonindigenous species are introduced through the ballast water of ocean-going vessels. When ships fill their ballast tanks to compensate for changes in load, vast assemblages of aquatic organisms are collected and subsequently discharged into new ports. In the past century, the rate of species introductions in marine environments has increased due to a growing global shipping fleet, faster and larger ships, and changes in global import and export patterns. The introduction of nonindigenous species is recognized as one of the major environmental stressors of aquatic ecosystems. For example, invasive species such as the European zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) and the western Atlantic comb jelly (Mnemiopsis leidyi) have caused extensive economic and ecological damage in regions outside their native ranges where they have been introduced via ballast water. Concern about the spread of nonindigenous species has prompted efforts by international, U.S. federal and state, and governing bodies outside the United States to manage ballast water discharges.



http://www.imo.org/KnowledgeCentre/PapersAndArticlesByIMOStaff/Documents/Invasive%20species%20by%20DP.pdf

http://www.imo.org/KnowledgeCentre/PapersAndArticlesByIMOStaff/Documents/Invasive%20species%20by%20DP.pdf



Ballast water causes major invasive species issuesJohn Flesher, Associated Press, 3/29/2013, “Scientists: Ballast water dumped by ships carries invasive species,” http://news.msn.com/science-technology/scientists-ballast-water-dumped-by-ships-carries-invasive-species¶ The Environmental Protection Agency has issued new requirements for cleansing ballast water dumped from ships, which scientists

believe has provided a pathway to U.S. waters for invasive species that damage ecosystems and cost the economy billions of dollars.¶ ¶ Commercial vessels are equipped with tanks that can hold millions of gallons of water to provide stability in rough seas. But live creatures often lurk in the soupy brews of water, seaweed and sediment. If they survive transoceanic journeys and are released into U.S. waters, they can multiply rapidly, crowding out native species and spreading diseases.¶ ¶ Ships are currently required to dump ballast water 200 miles from a U.S. shoreline. But under the new general permit released Thursday by

the EPA, vessels longer than 79 feet — which includes an estimated 60,000 vessels — must also treat ballast water with technology such as ultraviolet light or chemicals to kill at least some of the organisms .




Ballast Water = Food System I/L

Ballast water causes invasive species and food system disruptionLucie Maranda, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, et. Al [Annie M. Cox, Robert G. Campbell, and David C. Smith, of the same institution], 2013, “Chlorine dioxide as a treatment for ballast water to control invasive species: Shipboard testing,” Marine Pollution Bulletin 75, 76-89, pg. Science Direct]Among human-mediated vectors of species introduction into freshwater, estuarine and marine ecosystems , the discharge of foreign ballast water from large ships constitutes a major threat to the

integrity of coastal environments (e.g., Carlton and Geller, 1993, Chapman et al., 2012, Drake et al., 2007, Ruiz et al., 2000 and

Sala et al., 2000). The globalization of trade, the increased speed and capacity of ocean-going vessels all augment the potential for non-indigenous species to be introduced, to survive, thrive and propagate in receiving coastal waters. The sheer volume of ballast water being transferred around the globe per year is currently estimated at 10 billion metric tons and guaranties that introductions will occur , with some of these becoming deleterious to established food webs, jeopardizing local fisheries, or developing into nuisance species, to name just a few unwanted outcomes (Tamelander et al., 2010). Pimentel et al. (2005) estimated the annual costs associated with losses, damages and control measures resulting from the introduction of aquatic non-indigenous species to be $7.8 billion in the United States alone, although monetary valuation does not solely represent the benefits of functioning ecosystems (Lovell and Drake, 2009 and Rothlisberger et al., 2012).




Ballast Water=Economic Downfall

Ballast water leads to invasive species and economic downfallStefan Kecan, Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, 2012, “Overview of Ballast Water Treatment Principles,” 2012, Emerging Risks from Ballast Water Treatment, http://www.bfr.bund.de/cm/350/emerging-risks-from-ballast-water-treatment.pdfSince wooden ships were replaced with steel-hulled vessels in the second half of the 19th century natural water has been used for ships’ ballast. Water can be easily pumped in and out of ballast tanks. Ships’ ballast is important for stability and trim of a vessel. Ballast (water) remarkably contributes to the safety of ships, crew, and cargo. The centre of buoyancy of a common vessel is way beyond the water level. (The cruise ships Queen Mary II has a draught of about 10 m and is about 40 m high above the water level.) So, a vessel actually would be capsized easily. Ballast is used to tare a vessel like a skip jack. A ship has to upright itself in any possible situation it may encounter. Furthermore, ships’ ballast prevents torsion of a vessel’s hull anddetermines the posture of a ship in the water (Sharma, 2011). The world’s shipping fleet carries billons of tonnes of ballast water each year. Depending on the size and number of ships entering a harbor a huge amount of ballast water might be discharged into the environment. Because of the natural origin of ballast water several living organisms(bacteria, algae, juvenile, adult animals) are highly abundant in this water. By shipping these organisms are distributed all over the world. ¶ Ecosystems are a complex and very sensitive network of species interactions, established over long historical periods. Non-indigenous species introduced e.g. by ships’ ballast water, could seriously threaten the biodiversity and stability of such evolved aquatic bionetworks. Beyond that, the invaders could lead to substantial economic consequences . For example, the comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi (Agassiz, 1865) was introduced in the Black Sea in the late 1980s. That caused a drastic reduction in zooplankton, ichthoplankton, and zooplanktivorous fish populations in that area. A

collapse of local anchovy fishery around the Black Sea ensued from this decline in zooplankton and

fish populations (E.g. Kideys, 1994; Shiganova et. Al, 1998, 2001).




Status Quo Doesn’t Solve

International measures don’t solve-Ballast water is still a huge problemLucie Maranda, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, et. Al [Annie M. Cox, Robert G. Campbell, and David C. Smith, of the same institution], 2013, “Chlorine dioxide as a treatment for ballast water to control invasive species: Shipboard testing,” Marine Pollution Bulletin 75, 76-89, pg. Science Direct]

In 2004, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), recognizing the risks and damages associated with alien species introductions by ballast water discharge, mandated performance standards limiting the concentrations of live organisms allowed to be released (regulation D-2) (www.imo.org): (i) fewer than 10 organisms m−3 ⩾50 μm, (ii) fewer than 10 organisms mL−1 between <50 μm and ⩾10 μm, and (iii) fewer than set concentrations for harmful or indicator microorganisms, namely Enterococcus (<100 colonies forming unit (cfu) 100 mL−1), Escherichia coli (<250 cfu 100 mL−1), and Vibrio cholerae,

serotypes O1 and O139 (<1 cfu 100 mL−1 or ⩽1 cfu g−1 (wet weight) of organisms of ⩾50 μm in size) ( IMO, 2009). Although the

required minimum number (30) of signatory countries has been surpassed, the tonnage criterion has

not yet been met to ensure ratification of the convention ; as of January 31th 2013, ∼ 29% of world shipping tonnage has been reached out of the necessary 35% ( IMO, 2013). In the United States, the Coast Guard is charged with enforcing the 2008 Vessel General Permit (VGP) regulations to prevent the spread of aquatic nuisance species (http://cfpub.epa.gov/npdes/vessels/vgpermit.cfm; Anonymous, 2012). The VGP is currently regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); it will be replaced in late 2013 for the next five years by the Final 2013 VGP. Although the U.S. has not yet signed the IMO ballast water management convention, both the U.S. Coast Guard and EPA follow IMO D-2 standards for living organisms to be discharged from ballast water, with the exception of the IMO cholera standard in zooplankton.




Status Quo Doesn’t Solve

Ballast water is still a huge problem-Biocide development is necessary

Lucie Maranda, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, et. Al [Annie M. Cox, Robert G. Campbell, and David C. Smith, of the same institution], 2013, “Chlorine dioxide as a treatment for ballast water to control invasive species: Shipboard testing,” Marine Pollution Bulletin 75, 76-89, pg. Science Direct]

Despite significant efforts in the past decade, there still is a need to find effective, environmentally sound, but also practical and affordable measures to manage and/or treat ballast water in order to curb the spread of potentially harmful species introduction. One approach to treating ballast water is the use of a biocide. Not only must the biocide be effective for a broad range of species and biomass, it must also be safe for use aboard a ship, and must degrade or be neutralized to a non-harmful entity by the time of the ballast water discharge in order to protect local species. One such biocide, chlorine dioxide (ClO2), is a strong oxidant gas with a

highly effective antimicrobial activity; it readily dissolves in water and is commonly used as a disinfectant in drinking water and in various industrial applications. It appears to be safe for use aboard ships as the effects of ClO2-treated seawater on metal corrosion were found to be no different from the effects of seawater alone for concentrations up to 10 mg L−1 (D.G. Simpson, personal communication). Furthermore, initial bench-scale testing of ClO2-treated seawater demonstrated that ballast water would be safe for discharge (i.e., ⩽200 μg L−1, the instantaneous maximum limit for residual ClO2 discharge (2013 VGP)) within 24 h of treatment in warm waters (>20 °C), but could necessitate up to 48 h at temperatures close to the freezing point, irrespective of other conditions (Oviatt et al., 2003; M. Hasson, Ecochlor, Inc., personal communication). By reacting with organic compounds, ClO2 does not form deleterious halogenated byproducts, as chlorine does; its main degradation species are the chloride (Cl−) and chlorite View the MathML source ions and sometimes chlorate View the MathML source (Baribeau et al., 2002 and Simpson, 1999).

Current U.S. law solves

Ryan J. Albert, John M. Lishman, and Juhi R. Saxena, all of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water, 2013, “Ballast water regulations and the move toward concentration-based numeric discharge limits,” Ecological Applications, Vol. 23 Issue 2

United States federal regulation .— At the U.S. federal level, ballast water management is principally addressed by two statutes: (1) the Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act (NANPCA) of 1990, as amended (16 U.S. Code [U.S.C.] §§ 4701 et seq.); and (2) the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (commonly referred to as the Clean Water Act or CWA, 33 U.S.C. §§ 1251 et seq.; see Fig. 1). Both NANPCA and the CWA preserve the authority of the individual U.S. states to more stringently regulate ballast water discharges that occur in their waters (16 U.S.C. § 4725, NANPCA; 33 U.S.C. § 1370, CWA). For the states that currently regulate ballast water discharges, there is substantial variation in their requirements (Table 1).¶ Congress enacted NANPCA in November 1990 (Public Law 101-646; 104 STAT 4761) to authorize the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) to issue regulations to prevent the introduction and spread of ANS into the Great Lakes through the ballast water of vessels. In 1996, Congress enacted the National Invasive Species Act (NISA), which amended and reauthorized NANPCA (Public Law 104-332; 110 STAT 4073). Among other things, the amendments made by NISA directed the USCG to develop a national ballast water management program for U.S. waters besides the Great Lakes.




A2 Mid Ocean Exchange Solves

Mid-ocean exchange doesn’t solve ballast water invasive species issuesJennica M. Seiden and Richard B. Rivkin, both of the Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. Johns, 2014, “Biological controls on bacterial populations in ballast water during ocean transit,” Marine Pollution Bulletin 78 7-14, pg. Science Direct Mid-ocean exchange (MOE) of ballast water is used to control the introduction of aquatic invasive species.

MOE is a process where ships exchange coastal ballast water for oceanic water at least 200 nautical miles offshore and where ocean depths are at least 2000 m (Transport Transport Canada, 2007 and International Marine

Organization (IMO), 2008). When MOE is conducted in compliance with IMO guidelines, it is supposed to be effective at reducing the initial concentration of some planktonic organisms by up to 80–95% (Ruiz and Reid,

2007).¶ Recent studies have reported the presence of heterotrophic microbes , such as bacteria and viruses, (Ruiz et al., 2000, Drake et al., 2002, Burkholder et al., 2007, Ma et al., 2009, Seiden et al., 2010, Sun et al., 2010, Leichsenring and

Lawrence, 2011 and Altug et al., 2012). Heterotrophic prokaryotes numerically dominate ballast water biota and under some circumstances can be a potential environmental and human health risk (Rigby et al., 1999,

Burkholder et al., 2007 and Altug et al., 2012). For example, pathogenic bacteria such as Vibrio cholerae and Escherichia coli can be transported in ballast water and be introduced into previously uncontaminated areas .

Additionally, bacteria have characteristics that optimize successful establishment in new environments .

They are capable of enduring the harsh conditions in ballast tanks as spores or other resting stages, and because of their high intrinsic growth rates, bacteria can potentially establish high population levels ( Ruiz et al., 2000

and Gregg and Hallegraeff, 2007). Mid-ocean exchange may not be effective in reducing the total number of

bacteria in ballast water since open-ocean bacterial abundances are 0.5–1.0 × 109 cells/L, which is

quantitatively similar to that in coastal and other near shore regions ( Ducklow, 2000). The propagule

pressure of heterotrophic microbes, in particular bacteria and viruses, is orders of magnitude higher

than other organisms ( Ruiz et al., 2000, Drake et al., 2002, Drake et al., 2007 and Quilez-Badia et al., 2007).




Current Legislation Fails

Legislation fails now-EPA isn’t stringent enough John Flesher, Associated Press, 3/29/2013, “Scientists: Ballast water dumped by ships carries invasive species,” http://news.msn.com/science-technology/scientists-ballast-water-dumped-by-ships-carries-invasive-species"The numeric limitations in today's permit represent the most stringent standards" that ballast water treatment systems can "safely, effectively, credibly, and reliably meet," the EPA said in a statement with the

200-page report it released on the permit late Thursday.¶ But environmental groups, whose lawsuits forced the EPA to adopt ballast

discharge standards in the first place, said they're too weak.¶ "The EPA had an opportunity to lead the world in solving this globally dangerous problem, but they have missed the mark ... again ," said Mary Ellen Ashe, executive director of Great Lakes United.¶ She also criticized the EPA for exempting ships that never leave the Great Lakes, where ballast water is blamed for introducing invasive species including zebra and quagga mussels. Those organisms have spread across the lakes, clogging water intake pipes and unraveling food webs by gobbling microscopic plankton on which fish depend.¶ Environmentalists contend that those exempted ships can carry exotic species around the lakes even if they weren't responsible for bringing them to the U.S. The EPA said treatment technologies are "unavailable and economically unfeasible" for those vessels. But it said any built before 2009 would have to take other steps such as limiting the amount of ballast water they pick up near shore.




Disease

Ballast water causes major disease outbreaksCK Takahashi, Sao Paulo State University, et. Al, 2008, “Ballast Water: A Review of the Impact on the World Public Health,” Journal of Venomous Animals and Toxins including Tropical Diseases, http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S1678-91992008000300002&script=sci_arttextSince the nineteenth century ships have been using ballast water (BW) for safety, stability, propulsion and maneuverability, as well as to redress loss of fuel weight and water consumption, and to maintain structural stress at acceptable levels. Ballast water has been spreading many non-native species around the globe, but little is known about the extent and potential significance of ship-mediated transfer of microorganisms. The global movements of ballast water by

ships create a long-distance dispersal mechanism for human pathogens that may be important in the

worldwide distribution of microorganisms, as well as for the epidemiology of waterborne diseases . Only a few studies have been carried out on this subject, most of them involving ballast water containing crustacean larvae and phytoplankton. Specialized microbiological studies on these waters are necessary to avoid a repeat of what happened in 1991, when epidemic cholera was reported in Peru and rapidly spread through Latin America and Mexico. In July of 1992, Vibrio cholerae was found in the USA and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) determined that it came from ballast water of ships whose last port of call was in South America. In Brazil, just a few studies about the subject have been performed. An exploratory study by the Brazilian National Health Surveillance Agency (Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária – ANVISA) found in ballast water different microorganisms, such as fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Clostridium perfringens, coliphages, Vibrio cholerae O1 and Vibrio cholerae non-O1 . Until now, Brazil has been focusing only on organisms transported to its territory from other countries by ballast water, to avoid their establishment and dissemination in Brazilian areas. Studies that can assess the probability that water ballast carries pathogenic microorganisms are extremely important, as is the examination of ships that arrive in the country. Treatment of the human infections caused by BW exists but none is completely safe and efficient.




Disease

Ballast water disease outbreaks empirically provenCK Takahashi, Sao Paulo State University, et. Al, 2008, “Ballast Water: A Review of the Impact on the World Public Health,” Journal of Venomous Animals and Toxins including Tropical Diseases, http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S1678-91992008000300002&script=sci_arttextBACTERIA¶ Possibly, the least studied aspect of marine bioinvasions is the transfer of nonindigenous microorganisms (10, 18). Commercial ships have spread them around the globe, but little is known about the extension and significance of this transference. The global movement of BW creates a dispersal mechanism for worldwide long-distance distribution of human pathogens, which consequently increases the number of waterborne diseases, affecting humans, plants and other animals (35, 37).¶ The concern about the transmission of potentially pathogenic bacteria via BW began in 1992, when the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the USA detected Vibrio cholerae in shellfishes collected from ballast tanks of many ships that had come from South America. The water samples investigated showed salinities of 12, 13, 14, 20 and 32 ppm, which indicates that the microorganism is capable

of surviving in both estuarine and marine waters (28).¶ A study carried out by Delille and Delille (10) found the presence of enteric bacteria even in Antarctic ice. In January of 1991, a cholera outbreak was first detected in Peru and in September of the same year, it quickly dispersed throughout South America and Mexico . In

June of 1992, the microorganism was detected in the USA after tests performed on the BW of several South American ships (28). Delille and Dellile (10) also mentioned that a cholera outbreak that had begun in Indonesia in 1961 had completed its global cycle in 1991 and that the same infection was introduced in the 1990s in Latin America by sea traffic.




Ballast Water Pollution Not Problem




Alt Cause-Aquariums

Alt cause-Aquariums

Dianna K. Padilla, Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at Stony Brook University and Susan L. Williams, Professor in the Department of Evolution and Ecology at the Bodega Marine Laboratory at UC Davis, 2004, “Beyond Ballast Water: Aquarium and Ornamental Trades as Sources of Invasive Species in Aquatic Ecosystems,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment Vol. 2, No. 3 (April), pp. 131-138 Here we make the case for increased attention to this threat. At present we do not have all of the data on its full

environmental and economic extent, but there are enough examples of aquarium and ornamental escapees that are important invasive species to raise concern. We highlight the tension between sustainable development, intended to support the conservation of biodiversity, and the negative impacts from invasive species. Resolution of this conflict rapidly boils down to a need for future economic analyses . In

the meantime, however, we suggest ¶ several relatively easy steps that managers and policy makers can take immediately. ¶ Invasive species are recognized as the second leading ¶ cause of extinctions around the world (Wilcove et al. ¶ 1998). They pose severe ecological and economic threats ¶ as well as danger to human health - for example, the ¶ snail Biomphalaria glabrata carries

schistosome parasites ¶ (Ferrari and Hoffman 1992). To date, most attention has ¶ focused on ballast water (Ruiz et al.

1997), including the ¶ proposed reauthorization of the National Invasive ¶ Species Act, which largely ignores other sources of ¶

aquatic invasive species . Ballast water is certainly an ¶ important and controllable vector of

potential pests to ¶ harbors and estuaries that are centers of shipping, but it ¶ is not the only threat

to aquatic habitats (Figure 4). ¶ Although other avenues of invasion are now receiving ¶ attention (Naylor et

al. 2001; Chapman et al. 2003), the ¶ risks from aquarium and ornamental aquatic species ¶ remain below the radar of most agencies responsible for ¶ preventing and managing aquatic invasive species, and ¶ even of concerned scientists. For example, a recent report from the American ¶ Association for the Advancement of Science (Best and ¶ Bornbusch 2001) addressed habitat destruction and ¶ overexploitation during the collection of coral reef organisms for marine aquariums, but ignored the threat ¶ of introduction of non-natives when these species are ¶ transported around the world. As a step forward, the ¶ Working Group on Introduction and Transfers of Marine ¶ Organisms of the International Council on the ¶ Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recently recommended ¶ that the risk from ornamentals and aquarium species ¶ should be evaluated (ICES 2001).




Alt Cause-Aquariums

Aquariums and ornamental tanks are alt causes

Dianna K. Padilla, Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at Stony Brook University and Susan L. Williams, Professor in the Department of Evolution and Ecology at the Bodega Marine Laboratory at UC Davis, 2004, “Beyond Ballast Water: Aquarium and Ornamental Trades as Sources of Invasive Species in Aquatic Ecosystems,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment Vol. 2, No. 3 (April), pp. 131-138

Aquarium species are important and beautiful (Figure 5); ¶ however, like species transported in ballast, some pose ¶ extreme threats. Because of their extraordinarily widespread ¶ dispersal to homes and businesses after importation, they ¶ can affect all freshwater and marine habitats . This contrasts ¶ with ballast-

transported organisms, which are only released ¶ into ports where ballast water discharge is not

regulated . ¶ Organisms transported in ballast water are usually small, ¶ even microscopic, and are often at very young life stages (ie ¶ larvae and spores). Aquarium species, in contrast, are large ¶ and usually traded as adults, which have a greater probability of surviving to reproduce. In addition, good aquarium ¶ animals and plants are hearty, with weaker individuals ¶ (75-85%) being weeded out during collection and trans-portation (Wabnitz et aL 2003). Thus, ¶ although ballast water collects all ¶ species, only species most likely to ¶ survive the harsh conditions associ? ¶ ated with collection and transport ¶ and the broad physiological condi? ¶ tions needed to survive and repro? ¶ duce in aquariums are used in the ¶ aquarium and ornamental industry. ¶ Of all the species with the potential ¶ to establish, aquarium and ornamen? ¶

tal species represent a subset that may ¶ be particularly invasive. ¶ ?




Alt Cause-Aquariums

More pressing concerns for invasive species than ballast water that the aff doesn’t solveDianna K. Padilla, Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at Stony Brook University and Susan L. Williams, Professor in the Department of Evolution and Ecology at the Bodega Marine Laboratory at UC Davis, 2004, “Beyond Ballast Water: Aquarium and Ornamental Trades as Sources of Invasive Species in Aquatic Ecosystems,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment Vol. 2, No. 3 (April), pp. 131-138

How large a threat?¶ One third of the aquatic species on ¶ the International Union for the ¶ Conservation of Nature (IUCN) ¶ Invasive Species Specialist Group list ¶ of 100 worst invasive species (Lowe et ¶ al. 2000) are from aquarium or orna? ¶ mental releases. At present, over 150 ¶ species of vertebrates, invertebrates, ¶ plants, and microbes (including ¶ pathogens) that have invaded natural ¶ ecosystems have been documented to ¶ come from aquariums and aquatic ¶ ornamental culture (Table 1). The ¶ Figure 3* A juvenile Uonfish (top). Uonfish are one

of the many species of non-native ¶ aquarium fish that are now found in American waters. ¶ vast majority of these are freshwater fish (Figure 6); other ¶ taxa from aquarium and ornamental releases are underesti- ¶ mated (Welcomme 1992). Released aquarium or ornamen? ¶ tal species displace native species (Ceccherelli and Cinelli ¶ 1997), carry pathogens (Stewart 1991), clog waterways ¶ (Schardt 1997), and prey on native species (Table 1), while ¶ others are major agricultural pests (Anderson 1993; Naylor ¶ 1996), and some, like the lionfish, are a direct danger to ¶ humans (Stewart 1991). ¶ The avenues from aquariums to nature include the ¶ dumping of unwanted organisms, escape from tanks and ¶ breeding farms (eg during storms), the drainage of water ¶ containing organisms from tanks, and public aquariums, ¶ and the ritualistic release of species during religious prac? ¶ tices (Severinghaus and Chi 1999). All of these activities ¶ can also release water-borne diseases (Stewart 1991). ¶ Often, well-meaning individuals, unaware of the problem ¶ of introducing non-native species, release unwanted pets, ¶ believing it is more humane to release them than keep ¶ them captive. Increases in the marine aquarium industry, ¶ particularly the trade in "live rock" (whole communities ¶ of animals and plants




Status Quo/Warming Solves

Warming resolves ballast water harmsFrank J. Rahel, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, and Julian D. Olden, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, 2008, “Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species,” Conservation Biology, Volume 22, No. 3A warmer climate and the resulting effects on precipitation and the amount of snow are projected to increase rates of desiccation and alter the salinity of freshwater and estuary ecosystems . Naturally saline aquatic systems in arid regions such as the southwestern United States will experience increased desiccation and salinization (Seager et. Al. 2007), and saltwater intrusions will occur in some coastal areas (Frederick & Gleick 1999). Altered pathways of Species Introductions Increasing salinization in coastal ecosystems will likely have a strong influence on pathways of species introductions. Many of the recent invasions of the LaurentianGreat Lakes and of the Caspian, Azov, Black, and Baltic seas have resulted from shipping activities, particularly through the release of contaminated ballast water (Carlton & Geller 1993). The primary method used to reduce the spread of non-native species via ballast-water discharge is open-ocean ballast water exchange. Nevertheless, not all shipping companies practice open-ocean exchange, and even if they did, ballast waters would still contain viable propagules that would be released at the port of entry . (Eirocheir sinensis).

Warming prevents ballast water harms from escalatingFrank J. Rahel, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, and Julian D. Olden, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, 2008, “Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species,” Conservation Biology, Volume 22, No. 3

Climate change will alter abiotic filters that determine the success of invasive species in aquatic environments (Fig. 2). Most researchers have focused on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, but

there may be circumstances in which invasions will be reduced . For example, warmer temperatures and reduced winter hypoxia would expand the pool of invasive species to include warm water or hypoxia-inteolerant species but would reduce the success of coldwater invasive species (Rahel 2002 ). Such a

situation could benefit native species in Patagonian streams , where non native salmonids have restricted native fishes

to warm headwater reaches (Pascual et. Al 207). Increasing salinity in estuaries or arid land streams could reduce invasions by non-native species intolerant of saline conditions (Higgins & Wilde 2005). Because native species have evolved adaptations to historical flow regimes, alteration of flow regimes is most likely to benefit non-native species adapated to the changed conditions (Marchetti & Moyle 2001; Olden et. Al 2006). Similarly, conversion of riverine habitat to reservoir habitat will allow a new pool of lentic species to invade, te effects of which could extend for a considerable distance up-and down stream of the reservois (Havel et. Al. 2005).




Status Quo-Mid-Ocean Solves

Mid-ocean ballast exchange solves ballast water problems nowSmithsonian Environmental Research Center, no date, “Mid Ocean Ballast Water Exchange, Marine Invasions Research Lab, http://www.serc.si.edu/labs/marine_invasions/vector_ecology/bw_exchange.aspxSince mid-ocean ballast exchange replaces most of the coastal water with open ocean water, it also removes most of the coastal organisms that were originally entrained in the ballast tank . Although oceanic organisms can be captured in ballast water tanks during this exchange, these organisms are considered less likely to become established than biota of coastal origin when discharged into a coastal ecosystems, due to a mismatch among open ocean and coastal habitats (Murphy et al, 2001; Minton et al 2005;

Wonham et al, 2001). Conversely, coastal organisms discharged into the ocean are considered less likely to survive in open ocean habitat. ¶ In some cases, replacing low salinity or fresh water with open ocean, high salinity water during ballast water exchange will stress or kill residual coastal organisms. These processes may also reduce the likelihood of successful invasion where water is deballasted.




Status Quo Solves-International Regulations

International regulations solve nowKathleen Murphy, Marine Invasions Research Laboratory, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, et. Al, 2004, “Verification of mid-ocean ballast water exchange using naturally occurring coastal tracers,” Marine Pollution Bulletin 48 (2004) 711-730In 1991, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) established voluntary guidelines aimed at minimizing such introductions, requesting that ships perform mid-ocean ballast water exchange (BWE).

During BWE, a vessel replaces its original ballast water (taken on board while the vessel was in port or near to the coast) with water from the open ocean. Ballast exchange reduces NIS by (1) discharging a percentage of them into the inhospitable environment of the open ocean, and in some cases, () by increasing the salinity level within the ballast tank to a level such that many species of freshwater or brackish water origins cannot survive (Taylor et. Al, 2002). BWE is now the primary method for reducing the risk of species transfer by ships throughout the world. In the US, BWE is voluntary for most vessels arriving beyond the exclusive economic zone (EEZ), but federal law requires BWE for such vessels entering the Great Lakes and the Hudson River, north of the George Washington Bridge. Regulations have recently been enacted in several states (California, Oregon, Washington) that require BWE for all vessels intending to discharge foreign ballast in their waters. Moreover, the US Coast Guard intends to extend mandatory regulations for BWE to all vessels delivering foreign ballast to any US port. Although other approved ballast water treatment methods may also be used under federal and state laws, no alternatives to BWE have been approved for use to date (see discussion by Taylor et. Al, 2002).




Status Quo-U.S. Policy Solves Current U.S. law solves

Ryan J. Albert, John M. Lishman, and Juhi R. Saxena, all of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water, 2013, “Ballast water regulations and the move toward concentration-based numeric discharge limits,” Ecological Applications, Vol. 23 Issue 2

United States federal regulation .— At the U.S. federal level, ballast water management is principally addressed by two statutes: (1) the Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act (NANPCA) of 1990, as amended (16 U.S. Code [U.S.C.] §§ 4701 et seq.); and (2) the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (commonly referred to as the Clean Water Act or CWA, 33 U.S.C. §§ 1251 et seq.; see Fig. 1). Both NANPCA and the CWA preserve the authority of the individual U.S. states to more stringently regulate ballast water discharges that occur in their waters (16 U.S.C. § 4725, NANPCA; 33 U.S.C. § 1370, CWA). For the states that currently regulate ballast water discharges, there is substantial variation in their requirements (Table 1).¶ Congress enacted NANPCA in November 1990 (Public Law 101-646; 104 STAT 4761) to authorize the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) to issue regulations to prevent the introduction and spread of ANS into the Great Lakes through the ballast water of vessels. In 1996, Congress enacted the National Invasive Species Act (NISA), which amended and reauthorized NANPCA (Public Law 104-332; 110 STAT 4073). Among other things, the amendments made by NISA directed the USCG to develop a national ballast water management program for U.S. waters besides the Great Lakes.




Invasive Species Defense

Invasive species threat is overblownDana Joel Gattuso, senior fellow at the National Center for Public Policy Research, “Invasive Species: Animal, Vegetable, or Political,”2006, National Policy Analysis, August #544, http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA544InvasiveSpecies.htmlWhat do mute swans, kudzu, red clover, pigs, and starlings have in common? Not much, except that they are all non-indigenous species - that is, the species does not originate from within the United States.¶ And that is essentially all they have in common. Yet many government agencies, lawmakers

and environmental special-interest groups would like to clump together the thousands of these

species introduced within our borders and stamp out their existence . More than 50 bills are pending in the U.S. Congress to address so called "invasive species."1 Most bills would expand federal authority to further control land use and authorize billions of tax dollars to eradicate non-native flora and fauna. ¶

Some "exotic species" are problematic, overtaking other species and imposing large economic costs in damages. But, contrary to public perception, these are more the exception than the rule. Most non-

native species adapt to their surroundings, and many are even useful.¶

Invasive species are not a threat to biodiversityDana Joel Gattuso, senior fellow at the National Center for Public Policy Research, “Invasive Species: Animal, Vegetable, or Political,”2006, National Policy Analysis, August #544, http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA544InvasiveSpecies.htmlThreat to Biodiversity?¶ Among the exaggerated claims regarding non-indigenous species is their alleged threat to the variety of species within ecosystems. According to Defenders of Wildlife, "The spread of non-native or 'exotic' species has emerged in recent years as one of the most serious threats to biodiversity, undermining the ecological integrity of many native habitats and pushing some rare species to the edge of extinction." The Nature Conservancy lists invasives second, just after species' habitat loss, as the biggest danger to biodiversity.26¶ To be sure, there are cases where exotic species have eliminated local flora and fauna, out-competing them for food, oxygen or sunlight; the same can be said of some resilient native species too. But there is no scientific evidence of actual global extinction caused by a non-native species. Nor do exotic species threaten species "richness" or "biodiversity." ¶ In fact, some scientists believe non-natives enhance diversity. According to Michael Rosenzweig, a biologist at the University of Arizona and the editor of Evolutionary Ecology Research, the presence of exotic species can actually lead over time to a greater number of species because the destruction of local species would allow for the introduction of new species.28 Similarly, evolutionary biologist Gereet Vermeij wrote in Science, "Invasion usually results in the enrichment of biotas [plant and animal life of a particular region] of continents and oceans. In some biotas... interchange has pushed diversity to levels higher than the pre-extinction number of species."29¶




Current Policy Solves

Current policy and individual actions solveSmithsonian Institution, 2012, “Reducing the Risk of Transporting Invasive Species,” http://ocean.si.edu/ocean-news/reducing-risk-transporting-invasive-speciesSometimes small, simple steps can go a long way toward solving big problems. Ship captains can help prevent many stow-away species from invading new areas simply by flushing and refilling ballast tanks with water from the open ocean before they arrive in port. In deep water far from the coast, animals flushed out of the ship's tanks are not likely to survive. Similarly, any deep-water organisms brought on board in the new batch of water, are not likely to make a home in shallow coastal waters at the ship's next port. ¶ Scientists have found that this technique can remove more than 90 percent of the tiny animals in ballast tanks. The U.S. and others countries have begun requiring ships to either keep their ballast water on board or flush it thoroughly in deep waters far from the coast. Meanwhile, scientists at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center and elsewhere are busy studying other techniques, such filtering or treating ballast water with UV light or heat. They hope that down the line, these techniques will put an end to high-seas hitchhiking altogether.

Current policy solvesBarbara Wilcox, USGS, 2013 “USGS Targets Tiny Stowaways in Ships’ Ballast Water,” http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/usgs-targets-tiny-stowaways-in-ships-ballast-water/It’s almost always too late to get rid of such pests once they are established. It’s much easier to stop aquatic species from becoming introduced by treating incoming ballast water before it is discharged into unfamiliar waters. For several decades, state and federal governments and the International Maritime Organization have been crafting requirements for treatment of ships’ ballast water. These standards could be implemented worldwide by 2020, but key to global adoption is having consistent, reliable and easily followed standards and methodologies. USGS scientists are evaluating both risk-based and quantitative ballast-water discharge standards to protect marine ecology. In partnership with the National Park Service and private firms, USGS is developing emergency ballast-water treatment systems and freshwater ballast treatment systems that are safe and effective while also being cost-efficient and easy to use. Finally, USGS has co-produced with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency the first large-scale comparative atlas of non-native marine species in the North Pacific, giving resource managers data with which to strategize against a possible threat.




Current Policy Solves

Current legislation prevents ballast water harmsRyan J. Albert, John M. Lishman, and Juhi R. Saxena, all of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water, 2013, “Ballast water regulations and the move toward concentration-based numeric discharge limits,” Ecological Applications, Vol. 23 Issue 2The USCG ballast water management requirements specific to the Great Lakes are codified in regulations at 33 U.S. Code of Federal Regulations [C.F.R.] Part 151, Subpart C, and the requirements applicable to all U.S. waters are codified at 33 C.F.R. Part 151, Subpart D. As initially issued, both sets of regulations were consistent with the existing ballast water management resolutions adopted by IMO and placed primary emphasis on use of mid-ocean BWE to manage ballast water. Recognizing the significant limitations of a BWE-based regulatory framework, the USCG issued for public comment a proposed rule in August 2009 to gradually replace reliance on BWE with a regime requiring treatment of ballast water to meet a concentration-based discharge standard. The initial USCG proposed rule would first have required ballast water discharges to meet a standard consistent with the BWM Convention's Regulation D-2 standard (referred to in the USCG proposal as the “Phase 1” standard). The proposed rule would have subsequently required compliance with a discharge standard 1000 times more stringent than Phase 1 for the two larger size classes of organisms (the “Phase 2” standard) (74 Federal Register 44632).




State Legislation Solves Now

State legislation solves ballast water issues in the status quoRyan J. Albert, John M. Lishman, and Juhi R. Saxena, all of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water, 2013, “Ballast water regulations and the move toward concentration-based numeric discharge limits,” Ecological Applications, Vol. 23 Issue 2¶ United States regulation by individual states .— Four U.S. states (California, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) have independent laws, regulations, or permits establishing numeric ballast water discharge standards or treatment requirements. Four other states without specific ballast water related laws have included numeric ballast water discharge limits as part of their Clean Water Act (CWA) section 401 certifications of the VGP (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and New York); a fifth state, Pennsylvania, included those conditions but subsequently deleted them in November 2010. See Table 1 for a list of U.S. state standards.¶ Under CWA section 401, when the U.S. federal government issues a permit such as the VGP, it must seek certification from the state in which the discharge originates (i.e., the location(s) where the ballast water is discharged) to ensure that the discharge will comply with the applicable provisions of the CWA, including water quality standards, and other appropriate requirements of state law . As a result, the VGP contains a number of section CWA 401 certifications with ballast water-related conditions, which vary in their stringency, schedules for implementation, and types of vessels covered (Table 1). By way of example, we briefly discuss three states' concentration-based standards for organisms in ballast discharge and summarize their publicly stated rationale.

Multiple state regulations in place-No federal action necessaryRyan J. Albert, John M. Lishman, and Juhi R. Saxena, all of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water, 2013, “Ballast water regulations and the move toward concentration-based numeric discharge limits,” Ecological Applications, Vol. 23 Issue 2California enacted legislation establishing ballast water discharge standards for state waters and a schedule for compliance with those standards based on recommendations of the California State Lands Commission in order to “approach a protective zero discharge standard” (CSLC 2010, Dobroski et al. 2011). The

interim standard (those in force starting in 2010) for organisms greater than 50 μm is zero detectable living organisms, and for organisms between 10 and 50 μm is less than 0.01 organisms/mL. Final standards, currently set to start in 2020, are zero detectable organisms for all size classes of organisms, including viruses and bacteria (Table 1). California also included these standards in its CWA section 401 certification of the VGP by reference.¶ New York's mechanism for regulating ballast water discharges is through its CWA section 401 certification of the VGP. As part of its certification, the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) requires, for vessels constructed on or after 1 January 2013, the same concentrations as California's interim standards for organisms greater than or equal to 50 μm (zero detectable living organisms) and organisms between 10 and 50 μm (less than 0.01 living organisms/mL). In its certification, New York stated that the IMO standards “are not sufficiently protective” and more stringent concentration-based standards were necessary to “prevent further impairment of the state's water quality” (New York 2008). Due to implementation difficulties and other factors, New York extended the compliance date until the end of the VGP's five-year term (J. M. Tierney, unpublished letter). As part of the VGP five-year renewal, the state is currently evaluating what, if any, conditions to apply to the next issuance of the VGP; however, as of 31 July 2012, New York has not proposed conditions similar in stringency to those contained in their 2008 certification.¶ In 2008, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA), under Minnesota state law, issued a State Disposal System (SDS) permit for ballast water discharges into Minnesota waters. According to MPCA, the discharge standards contained in the permit “are based on the Performance Standards contained in Section D-2 of the BWM Convention, with the exception of the standard for Vibrio cholerae. The general permit does not include a limit on Vibrio cholerae because analytical methods to enumerate that organism in ballast water have not been validated” (Minnesota Pollution Control Agency 2008).




International Agreements Solve

International agreements and private research solvesBarbara Werschkun, Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Berlin, Germany, 2012 “Ballast Water: Challenges for Consumer Protection, Activities, and Cooperations, Emerging Risks from Ballast Water Treatment, Federal Institute for Risk AssessmentThe Ballast Water Management Convention, adopted by the international community in 2004, is expected to enter into force within the next one or two years. From then on, more than 50,000 ships world wide will have to be equipped with on-board installations for ballast water treatment to meet the requirements of the Convention for the maximum number of living organisms in ballast water upon discharge . From the point of view of health protection, both treated and untreated ballast water may be associated with potential hazards to human health. On the one hand, the spread of human pathogens or toxin-producing algae may pose direct threats to biological safety and safety in the food chain. On the other hand, the envisaged countermeasures of biocidal treatment may lead to new risks with regard to chemical safety-not only from the use of chemicals and the generation of by-products on board the ships themselves, but also from the release of these substances into fishing waters or recreational areas. With these challenges in mind, BfR scientists over the years have contributed to the international efforts directed at the ballast water problem in various ways: Within the setting of the Ballast Water Management Convention, the BfR has evaluated many application documents for the approval of ballast water management systems with regard to their human health risks and has continuously contributed to the development and improvement of international guidelines within the bodies of the International Maritime Organization. Based on insights from the regulatory risk assessment and the identification of open questions, the BfR initiated its own research activities both in the office and in the laboratory, with particular focus on the formation of hazardous disinfection by-products and the exposure of humans to hazardous substances from ballast water management systems.




OCS (Outer Continental Shelf) Aff




OCS Good—Lowers Oil Prices

OCS would lower global gas prices Mark Overholt, President of Tiger General Medina Machine Company which builds transportation vehicles for oil production, constructs premium oil field trucks and other relevant transportation vehicles, May 20, 2014, “Why The Pros Outweigh The Cons Of Offshore Drilling”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.tigergeneral.com/pros-outweigh-cons-offshore-drilling/

In the US many of the “oil spills” are actually from oil seepage that occurs naturally. Senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation Ben Lieberman explains, “studies have shown that oil drilling reduces pressure on those seeps and results in less oil pollution. So offshore drilling truly could be a win-win situation for the American people.” Although this is not a popular idea, Lieberman is onto something with his theory that oil drilling will actually improve the environment. While less seepage is released due to the decrease in pressure, the oil rigs themselves act as reefs for marine life that would otherwise remain

unprotected. The misconception that the US will not see a decrease in oil prices no matter where they drill

oil is a ludicrous one . Those that are afraid to drill, who look for disaster at every opportunity, are maintaining that offshore drilling isn’t going to decrease oil prices in the United States. This couldn’t be further from the truth. The oil industry is going strong, and the addition of US crude oil into the international market gives the US some bargaining power. While gas prices haven’t gone down, the price of gas has remained rather steady

over the last few years. With Obama locking down 85% of our offshore drilling sites, the US will continue to lack the ability to increase energy production. This action keeps the US from being competitive in the international oil market.



http://www.tigergeneral.com/pros-outweigh-cons-offshore-drilling/

http://www.tigergeneral.com/pros-outweigh-cons-offshore-drilling/



OCS drilling lowers global oil prices Institute for Energy Research, a Washington, DC-based non-profit energy advocacy organization, April 29, 2014, “Could the U.S. Eliminate Oil Imports?”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/could-the-u-s-eliminate-oil-imports/

According to EIA, increased U.S. oil production lowers oil prices on the international market . In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, North Sea Brent crude oil prices are 11 percent lower than in the reference case: $125 per barrel (2012 dollars) in 2040,

compared with $141 per barrel in the EIA reference case. But, lower oil prices results in lower motor gasoline and

diesel prices, which in turn encourages more consumption than in the reference case .[ii] In the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, lower levels of domestic crude oil production result in a slightly higher Brent crude oil price than in the reference case—$145 per barrel (2012 dollars) in 2040—just $4 per barrel higher. Because the uncertainty around production increases is greater than the uncertainty around production decreases, assumptions in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case are closer to the assumptions in the reference case than are the assumptions in the High Oil and Gas Resource case .



http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/could-the-u-s-eliminate-oil-imports/#_edn2

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/section_issues.cfm#tight_oil

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/could-the-u-s-eliminate-oil-imports/



OCS drilling boosts global supply and lowers prices Mark P. Mills, I’m CEO of Digital Power Group, a tech and investment advisory, a Senior Fellow with the Manhattan Institute, on the board of the Marshall Institute, a think tank focused on space and missile defense, and Notre Dame's Reilly Center for Science, Technology & Ethics, July 2, 2014, “The Solution To High Gasoline Prices: Let US Companies Produce And Sell More Oil”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/markpmills/2014/07/02/the-solution-to-high-gasoline-prices-is-to-let-american-companies-produce-and-sell-more-oil/

Policymakers should heed the advice of Adam Smith, the father of modern economics and a contemporary of the writers of

the Declaration of Independence, when he wrote thus about markets: “[T]o open the most extensive market for the produce of his country … abolish, not only all monopolies, but all restraints upon the transportation of the home produce from one part of the country to another, upon its exportation to foreign countries, or upon the

importation of goods of any kind for which it can be exchanged.” [emphasis added] We can’t do anything about gasoline prices for this summer holiday, but to lower future prices the solution would be to flood global markets with

crude. Meanwhile, it could have been worse this holiday season: oil prices would be even higher if it were not for increased U.S. oil production, particularly in light of the chaos in the Middle East. Just a decade ago, we’d have to just live with the fact that gasoline prices in Boston are whipsawed by events in Baghdad. Today we have options . All it will take is for policy in Washington to reflect the new reality. American consumers could use some

good news.



http://www.forbes.com/sites/markpmills/2014/07/02/the-solution-to-high-gasoline-prices-is-to-let-american-companies-produce-and-sell-more-oil/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markpmills/2014/07/02/the-solution-to-high-gasoline-prices-is-to-let-american-companies-produce-and-sell-more-oil/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markpmills/

http://www.futurecasts.com/Smith,%20Wealth%20of%20Nations%20(II).htm



Drilling the OCS lowers oil prices and boosts the economy Markus Schmidt, writer for the Richmond Times-Dispatch news, June 26, 2014 “Gillespie’s energy plan focuses on oil and gas”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.roanoke.com/news/politics/gillespie-s-energy-plan-focuses-on-oil-and-gas/article_f89a6664-fda5-11e3-b8fd-0017a43b2370.html

Ed Gillespie, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, rolled out several energy proposals Thursday, designed to spur economic growth . The former GOP strategist, who will face Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., and Libertarian Robert Sarvis in November, wants to eliminate the new EPA carbon regulations, lift the ban on the export of domestic crude oil and liquefied natural

gas, get the Keystone XL pipeline approved and push for allowing exploration of the Atlantic Outer Continental

Shelf for new oil and gas leases. “Virginia should be a model for the rest of the nation in promoting ‘all of the above’ energy

policies,” Gillespie said in a statement released by his campaign. “Technologies that have enabled the shale gas boom have unleashed enormous possibilities for the future, and the nation is positioned to become energy independent for the first time ever. All that is lacking is national leadership,” he said. Gillespie said he believes in an energy

approach that embraces traditional and alternative energy resources. “I support coal, oil and natural gas production — including responsible deep sea drilling off our coast — because we can protect our environment while ensuring access to the domestic energy resources we need to create new jobs, lower prices at the

pump , and keep utility bills affordable,” Gillespie said. “We need to encourage energy efficiency and the use of solar where it makes sense. We also need to do more to encourage the continued development of nuclear energy as a low-cost and low-emission energy source for the future.”



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OCS Good—US Economy

Drilling the OCS is key to create jobs and stimulate the economy Diana Furchtgott-Roth, contributing editor at RealClearMarkets. A former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, she directs at the Manhattan Institute where she is a senior fellow, Top of Form Bottom of Form February 18, 2014, “Oil Is Where the Growth Is, So Let's Drill”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2014/02/18/oil_is_where_the_growth_is_so_lets_drill_100908.html

The government agency would have the burden of demonstrating the need for the extension. The Court would grant the extension in only the rarest of circumstances. Such a procedure would get the federal agencies out of

the habit of asking individuals to "volunteer" for an extension. The Cruz bill would allow exports of oil, gas, and coal, except to countries that are subject to sanctions or trade restrictions. It would repeal current presidential authority to limit oil exports, as well as other laws that prevent oil exports from the Outer

Continental Shelf or in pipelines over federal rights of way . Senator Cruz told me in an email, "In a Providential blessing,

we are witnessing the beginnings of an American energy renaissance, driven by the private sector. The Obama

Administration's opposition to energy-- to coal, to new refineries, to the Keystone Pipeline--is political, not driven by science. Today, we are facing the lowest labor force participation since 1978--now is the time to reduce the barriers to new production and to open up federal lands, so we can allow millions of high-paying jobs to be created across America." If Congress and the President are serious about getting America back to work, they should take a careful look at Senator Cruz's bill.



http://www.realclearmarkets.com/authors/diana_furchtgott-roth/


OCS Good—US Economy

Low oil & gas prices are key to re-start US manufacturing industry Aimee Hess, JD from Southern Methodist University—has practiced oil & gas law for over 30 years, MA in economics, April 4, 2014, “New Partnership for Oil and Gas Shale Drilling and Manufacturing”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.texasattorneyblog.com/2014/04/partnership_for_shale_and_manu.html

A new partnership has been formed in the energy industry that may benefit shale oil and gas drilling in Texas: the American Shale and Manufacturing Partnership. The member organizations include manufacturing, labor, environmental,

academic, and business organizations. It was launched November 19, 2014 at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. The goal of the new group is a renaissance in American manufacturing , and to remind policymakers that hindering the

development of shale oil and gas could hamper an already fragile economic recover in the United States. Charles T. Drevna, president of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a member of the new partnership, said: “The dream of bringing manufacturing back to the United States is very real, but it requires our government developing policies that encourage growth instead of putting regulatory barriers in the way.” Matthew

Sanfilippo, senior executive director of research initiatives at Carnegie Mellon University’s College of Engineering, noted that new technologies and domestic energy options like shale gas can transform American manufacturing . Shale gas has created 2.1 million American jobs already, and it is expected to create another 1.25 million in the next ten years. Tax revenue from the industry is also expected to total $2.5 trillion by 2035 according to the US Chamber of

Commerce’s Institute for 21st Century Energy. These statistics demonstrate why shale gas is so critical for manufacturing, especially due to job creation. “It is critical that the opportunities created by gas are compounded to deliver a reconstruction of our manufacturing base that will produce good community-building jobs, reduce trade deficits, and enhance our nation’s competitiveness and security,” said Walter Wise from the International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers.



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http://www.cit.cmu.edu/media/press/2013/11_14_shale_partnership_launch.html

http://www.texasattorneyblog.com/profile.html

http://www.texas.gov/en/Pages/default.aspx


OCS Good—US Economy/ Oil Dependence

OCS drilling provides jobs and decreases oil dependenceDr. John Hill, senior policy analyst at the Alabama Policy Institute, an independent, non-profit organization dedicated to defending and promoting free markets, limited government, and fiscal responsibility, July 10, 2014, “Energy Resources and the American Will to Develop Them”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.alabamapolicy.org/energy-resources-and-american-will-to-develop-them/

If oil production was expanded into these currently restricted areas, the economic benefits for the communities adjoining them might be akin to those of North Dakota. Since the beginning of its oil and natural gas fracking boom in 2008, North Dakota’s unemployment rate has plummeted to 2.6% , well below

the national average of 6.3%. By comparison, even the business-friendly states of Texas and Florida have unemployment rates of 5.1% and 6.3%, respectively. While the oil industry has been the unquestioned source of new wealth in North Dakota, other industries such as construction, service and entertainment are also enjoying the benefits as an increasing number of workers and entrepreneurs move there . Big-box stores like WalMart are

offering more than $17 an hour for cashiers, shelf stockers and grocers. Because of this enormous boost in local wealth, the state’s median household income has increased by 17% since 2000 (nationally, median household income has fallen by

almost seven percent). While the economic benefits of a domestic oil boom are promising, the security of having less reliance on foreign oil is equally attractive. If, for example, drilling was allowed in ANWR, it would reduce America’s overall dependence on foreign oil by 7%, or about 700,000 barrels per day. This is almost as much as the United States imports every day from Venezuela (797,000 barrels) and substantially more than is imported from Iraq (341,000) or Russia (459,000). The benefits from allowing drilling in the OCS would be even

larger. Expanding America’s energy options by removing the bans on our national energy resources will improve our economic well-being; provide new, well-paying jobs; and increase national security.

America is not running short of oil. Rather, we are running low on the will to develop our nation’s

energy treasures .



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http://www.alabamapolicy.org/author/john/


OCS Good—US Economy/ Oil Dependence

OCS drilling solves oil dependency and the economy—we have domestic resources to be self-reliant Institute for Energy Research, a Washington, DC-based non-profit energy advocacy organization, April 29, 2014, “Could the U.S. Eliminate Oil Imports?”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/could-the-u-s-eliminate-oil-imports/

According to the EIA, energy independence from foreign oil suppliers is within our reach. Energy independence from oil imports is a goal that stymied U.S. Presidents since the 1970s when the United States was hit by the OPEC oil embargo. To achieve that goal, the United States needs ingenuity from the oil and gas companies to improve drilling technologies, which past experience has shown to be achievable, and the U.S. government needs to make public lands available for exploration and drilling.

That means Obama Administration policies and performance statistics need to change. Those changes will lower prices,

increase federal and state revenues, improve the economy, and supply jobs . To IER, it looks like a no brainer.



http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/could-the-u-s-eliminate-oil-imports/


OCS Good—Food Prices

Oil price spikes cause food price spikes—global agriculture relies on oilDr Nafeez Ahmed ,executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development, February 28, 2014, “Global riot epidemic due to demise of cheap fossil fuels”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/feb/28/global-riots-protests-end-cheap-fossil-fuels-ukraine-venezuela

Simultaneously, as domestic oil consumption has steadily increased - in fact almost doubling since 1990 - this has eaten further into declining production, resulting in net oil exports plummeting by nearly half since 1996. As oil represents 95% of export earnings and about half of budget revenues , this decline has massively reduced the scope to sustain government social programmes, including critical subsidies. Looming

pandemic? These local conditions are being exacerbated by global structural realities. Record high

global food prices impinge on these local conditions and push them over the edge. But the food price hikes, in turn, are symptomatic of a range of overlapping problems. Global agriculture 's excessive dependence on fossil fuel inputs means food prices are invariably linked to oil price spikes . Naturally,

biofuels and food commodity speculation pushes prices up even further - elite financiers alone benefit from this while working people from middle to lower classes bear the brunt.



http://www.iprd.org.uk/

http://www.iprd.org.uk/

http://www.nafeezahmed.com/

http://www.theguardian.com/science/agriculture

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ve.html

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Desperate-to-Boost-Oil-Production-Venezuela-Moves-to-Devalue-Currency.html



High oil prices cause high food prices—empirically provenDavid McNair, head of growth, equity and livelihoods at the Scaling Up Nutrition civil society network, March 17, 2014, “Food prices: reining in volatile markets”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2014/mar/17/food-security-prices-oil-tax

Food price spikes tend to follow oil prices – because of transport costs increase and staples getting diverted to biofuel production. The global food price spikes in April and July of 2012 added $8bn (£5bn) to the food import bills of low-income countries – impacting on their fiscal balances and ability to provide basic services to their populations. No credible finance minister will want an expensive social protection programme without the budget to support it.



http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2014/mar/17/food-security-prices-oil-tax

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2014/mar/17/food-security-prices-oil-tax

http://scalingupnutrition.org/the-sun-network/civil-society-network

http://scalingupnutrition.org/the-sun-network/civil-society-network

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.savethechildren.org.uk%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FA_High_Price_to_Pay.pdf&ei=NNQmU4u8Eo6DhQepkIHoDw&usg=AFQjCNEoRLeIIjRtsru6klAMFDaWWe7yRw&sig2=1tSRdXZ_4RQcbDXsNlZMHw&bvm=bv.62922401,d.ZG4&cad=rja



High oil prices driver higher food prices Gail Tverberg, Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, oil expert, January 8, 2013, “Why 2013 Will End in a Severe Recession”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Why-2013-will-End-in-a-Severe-Recession.html

Food prices tend to rise at the same time as oil prices, partly because oil is used in the production of

food (for example, plowing, irrigation, herbicides and insecticides, harvesting, transport to market). Also, because oil is in short supply, corn is now being grown for use as ethanol to be used as a gasoline-extender. Growing additional corn puts pressure on food prices, because it drives up the price of land and encourages farmers to put more land into corn production, and less into other crops. The reason governments are affected by

high oil and food prices is as follows. When oil and food prices rise, buyers cut back in discretionary spending, so as to have enough for “basics,” including food and commuting expenses. Workers are laid off in discretionary industries, such as vacation travel and restaurants. These laid offworkers pay less taxes, and sometimes default on loans. Governments are quickly drawn into these problems, for two reasons: 1. Their tax revenue is lower, because of layoffs in discretionary sectors. 2. Their expenditures are higher, because of the need to pay more unemployment benefits, provide economic stimulus, and bail out banks. Oil importers are especially affected, because they are also paying out funds to oil exporters. The countries with well-publicized financial problems (including several European countries, the United States, and Japan) tend to be major oil importers.




OCS Good—Hegemony

High oil prices hurt US military effectiveness—high fuel costs trade off with funding to accomplish mission objectivessThe Union of Concerned Scientists, network of independent scientists and researchers that write about solutions to global problems, July 1, 2014, “New Video Details Solutions to Threat Oil Use Poses for Armed Forces”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/new-video-oil-armed-forces-0424.html

Our nation’s continued oil use is posing a dangerous threat to our nation’s armed forces and security ,

but engineers and national security experts are working together to make oil savings solutions a reality , according to a new video by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and the Truman National Security Project. The new video – featuring experts from both organizations – details the growing danger of oil use to our national security. The U.S. Department of Defense is the world’s largest institutional oil consumer, using more than 100 million barrels every year to power

ships, vehicles, aircraft, and ground operations . That’s enough oil to drive around the Earth more than 4 million times.

This high use leads to greater unpredictability for missions, especially given oil’s vulnerability to price swings on the world market. “Moving fuel on the battlefield is dangerous and expensive,” said Michael Breen,

a former Army captain and executive director at Truman. “A ten dollar increase in the price of a barrel of oil costs the military $1.3 billion — money we can’t use to accomplish our mission and protect our troops.”



http://trumanproject.org/

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/smart-transportation-solutions/us-military-oil-use.html


OCS Good—Hegemony

Access to cheap oil is the lifeblood of the US military—it’s their strategic purpose to protect oil supplies and they need cheap oil to ensure this goal Elizabeth Bunn, writer for The National Security Reporting Project which is an annual in-depth investigation of a critical national security issue. It is part of the Medill National Security Journalism Initiative, which is funded by the Robert R. McCormick Foundation, Accessed July 22, 2014, “Fact or Fiction?”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://oilchangeproject.nationalsecurityzone.org/one-of-the-biggest-roles-of-the-u-s-military-is-to-protect-our-oil/

A major role of the U.S. military is to protect the free flow of oil True. The sudden loss of regional oil networks would paralyze the global economy. As part of its global superpower responsibilities, the U.S. has worked for

decades to ensure that oil from the Persian Gulf is available to fuel international trade and economy. According to a 2012 International Studies Perspectives report, the task of securing critical straits and chokepoint – like Malacca and Hormuz – is taken on by a single participation, the United States. “In the case of the Persian Gulf,” the report notes, “the costs associated with maintaining the presence of the fifth fleet may serve as a direct proxy for a price tag to secure sea lanes in this region.” “The United States regards secure oil

supplies as part of its interest and mission,” the report continues, “and therefore includes global oil transit in its force

planning.” More simply put, the U.S. military could theoretically ensure a steady supply of oil by protecting oil flows closer to home – from Canada, Mexico, South America, the North Sea and Africa. But the United States also must consider the health of the overall global economic system. A massive shortfall of oil elsewhere in the world would not only affect the price of oil everywhere, but would also almost certainly undermine the global economic system.

Furthermore, the U.S. military relies on assured access to oil, and it isn’t inexpensive. “In addition to buying the fuel, the U.S devotes enormous resources to ensure the military receives the fuel it needs to operate,” according to a report on energy and risks to national security by Alexandria, VA-based CNA Solutions. “A large component of the logistics planning and resources are devoted to buying, operating, training, and maintaining logistics assets for delivering fuel to the battlefield—and these delivery costs exceed the cost of buying the commodity.”



http://oilchangeproject.nationalsecurityzone.org/one-of-the-biggest-roles-of-the-u-s-military-is-to-protect-our-oil/

http://oilchangeproject.nationalsecurityzone.org/one-of-the-biggest-roles-of-the-u-s-military-is-to-protect-our-oil/

http://oilchangeproject.nationalsecurityzone.org/author/elizabethbunn/


OCS Good—Russia Economy

Russia needs to shift away from reliance on oil to prop the economy—AND they aren’t getting benefits from oil money now Gerard Wynn, staff writer for Responding to Climate Change (RTCC) is a news and analysis website focused on providing the latest updates and insight into global low carbon developments, June 23, 2014, “Russia failing to reap benefit of oil and gas – IEA”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.rtcc.org/2014/06/19/russia-failing-to-reap-benefit-of-oil-and-gas-iea/

Russia will have to liberalise energy prices, upgrade its infrastructure, curb domestic demand and appeal to foreign investors to reap the benefit of its oil and gas resources , the International Energy Agency said. Such measures would boost the country’s competitiveness, turn around a sluggish economy, and help cut carbon emissions to tackle climate changes which would impact Russia, the IEA added. Russia would have to attract foreign investors, to develop unconventional oil and gas resources and maintain output, where western condemnation of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea may not have helped. “These challenges will require large investments in a range of USD 100 billion per year over the next 20 years, mainly from private domestic and foreign sources,” the IEA said in its report, “Russia

2014”. “Infrastructure in the electricity and heat sectors is ageing and needs rapid replacement and modernisation: This poses risks to the country’s energy security (especially for heat and power supplies), as well as its competitiveness and well ‐ being.” SLUGGISH Russia’s economy is sluggish even while hitting record oil production and enjoying prices consistently above $100 a barrel.



https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2014/june/iea-releases-review-of-russian-energy-policies.html

https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2014/june/iea-releases-review-of-russian-energy-policies.html



Russia economy is over reliant on oil—causes inevitable economic downturn. They should modernize and diversify their economic portfolio Paul Hockenos, journalist writing about European affairs for last 25 years—works for Al Jazeera, June 6, 2014, “Will the curse of oil drag down Vladimir Putin?”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/6/vladimir-putin-russiachinanaturalgasoilcurseeconomy.html

In his book “Wheel of Fortune,” Georgetown University professor Thane Gustafson argues that “inherited wealth from Soviet oil supports a comfortable systems of rents that is all too tempting to linger. Yet precisely because oil is a wasting asset, any prolonged stasis is not sustainable.” Gustafson recommends continually

modernizing the hydrocarbon industry in order to avoid economic decline . In the same vein, if profits are not reinvested in improving measures to diversify the overall economy, other sectors will inevitably become less competitive. Stagnation Bound by Soviet-era logic, however, Putin won’t pursue these kinds of reforms. The high-tech sector suffers acutely from lack of innovation and investment. Gustafson claims that Russia’s oil industry “lags behind the rapidly moving front of a global oil business that is in the midst of a technological and managerial revolution.” This stagnation , he argues, is Russia’s bane, and petroleum

wealth has only exacerbated it. Putin has relied upon the inherited wealth of the hydrocarbon sector to circumvent change and shore up his power. His fortunes are now tied to oil and gas more than ever before, despite the fact that Russia is quickly running out of cheap oil. In the near future, petroleum reserves will become much harder and more costly to access. The gas deal with China underscores Russia’s vulnerability. After more than a year of haggling, it is clear that Putin signed up for low-priced gas deliveries that depend on a yet-to-be-built costly infrastructure from a position of weakness. If 2014 is the year that Putin officially revealed his intentions, in retrospect it might also be viewed as the pinnacle of his power and Russia’s global pretensions. But

there is nothing inevitable about the curse of oil: It afflicts those who don’t heed the lessons of

others .



http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674066472



Diversification is key—Russia can’t continue to rely on oil wealth to prop the economy. Single export economies are “cursed” by their natural resourcesThe Development Economics Vice Presidency (DEC), seeks to increase understanding of development policies and programs by providing intellectual leadership and analytical services to the Bank and the development community, February 3, 2014, “Eurasia’s Development: Diversifying Economies, Naturally”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/02/03/eurasias-development-investing-in-diversity-naturally

Natural resources have undeniably been very good for Eurasia, but the region must now ensure that its "blessing" does not become a " curse ", as has sometimes happened in Africa and Latin America. Despite the recent economic

progress, Eurasia continues to face development challenges and there is growing unease about its long-term future. Many leaders in the region are concerned that an over-dependency on natural resources has created a vulnerability to future market fluctuations and a risk of instability. This is especially true for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia , Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, the largest hydrocarbon exporters in the region. As a consequence, economic diversification has increasingly been lauded by policy-makers as the solution to reducing Eurasia’s dependency on natural resources – and to safeguarding the region’s long-term development prospects. The policy discourse, however, has often focused heavily on diversification of exports and production, rather than on diversification of endowments through investment in education, infrastructure and institutions. To prevent their natural resources from becoming a curse, Eurasian economies need to become more productive, more participative, and more stable . Forced diversification of production and trade is not likely to achieve that. Higher education levels, better infrastructure, and efficient institutions that ensure access of all citizens to competitive markets are prerequisites for more productive economies. Governments in the region should worry less, therefore, about the composition of their exports and more about their national asset portfolios. Balanced asset portfolios are a common factor among successfully developed resource-rich countries.



http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/02/03/eurasias-development-investing-in-diversity-naturally

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/02/03/eurasias-development-investing-in-diversity-naturally


OCS Good—India Economy

High fuel prices crush India’s economic recoveryANANT VIJAY KALA And SAURABH CHATURVEDI, writers for the Wall Street Journal June 20, 2014, “Rising Oil Prices Could Derail India's Economic Comeback”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/articles/rising-oil-prices-could-derail-indias-economic-comeback-1403268133

" India's economy is highly sensitive ," to inflation from bad weather as well as rising oil prices , Frederic

Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC said in a report. "A prolonged rise in the cost of crude would pose headaches for the government and [the Reserve Bank of India] alike." HSBC estimates that a $10 per barrel increase in the price of crude oil pushes up wholesale inflation by a full percentage point over a 12-month period. Higher gasoline prices push up the prices of food and most other commodities because of the

increased transportation costs . Rising oil prices also inflate India's already massive subsidy bills. India fixes the prices on many fuels—including diesel and kerosene—at below cost, hoping to shield the poor from price fluctuations. Fuel retailers are forced to lose money and then the government compensates them for the money they lost. An oil ministry official, who declined to be named, said every dollar increase in the price of crude oil raises the government's subsidy burden by about 60 billion rupees . "This will be a setback to

India's efforts to improve its fiscal situation," said Anis Chakravarty, an economist at Deloitte, Haskins & Sells. India will

have little hope of reaching its budget-deficit target of 4.1% of GDP this year if oil prices rise further ,

analysts said. That could put India at risk of a sovereign downgrade by rating firms who have flagged the country's weak fiscal health as one of the key issues hurting the economy. Moody's Investors Service said Thursday that it will be watching India's budget announcement next month to see whether it has, "measures that address the government's low revenue base, high current expenditures, and exposure to commodity prices."



http://online.wsj.com/articles/rising-oil-prices-could-derail-indias-economic-comeback-1403268133


OCS Good—India Economy

Future price spikes cause major instability in IndiaBanu Simmons, over a decade of financial sector experience as an econometrician/quantitative analyst, she conducts academic research on equity analysis and have considerable experience in forecasting global macro and sector trends, July 3, 2014, “Political instability and oil prices complicate outlook”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://investing.covestor.com/2014/07/political-instability-oil-prices-complicate-outlook

In contrast, if the violence threatens Baghdad or the southern oil reserves, the oil price could spike further by 50% as the largest OPEC producer Saudi Arabia may not be able to compensate for the lost capacity. So far the global financial markets have not overreacted to the tensions in Iraq as oil analysts regard $120 a barrel as a crucial benchmark for concern. Energy normally does not exceed 10 percent of the consumer price index in most countries. That suggests a 10 percent increase in energy prices will increase inflation by an additional 1 percent . Core U.S.

consumer prices have risen 2% over the last year. If inflation rises much higher because of higher oil prices, it may put pressure on the Fed to consider moving to raise rates quicker. A further surge of oil prices could also make the global economic recovery more difficult in the second half of the year. Emerging markets such as China, the world’s biggest oil importer, and India’s manufacturing sector are both highly sensitive

to rising oil prices.



http://investing.covestor.com/2014/07/political-instability-oil-prices-complicate-outlook

http://investing.covestor.com/author/banu-simmons


OCS Good—China Economy

China’s economy and manufacturing sector are vulnerable to high oil pricesMark Thompson, staff writer for CNN Money—CNN’s financial news & analysis branch, July 8, 2014, “Oil prices spark economic growth concerns”, Accessed July 23, 2014, http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/23/news/economy/oil-prices-economy/

The rapid advance of ISIS across northern and western Iraq this month has had little effect so far on exports of crude oil from OPEC's second biggest producer . But prices have risen above $107 a barrel on

the Nymex on fear that supplies could be hit later this year, just as world demand peaks . Prices are up 16% so

far this year. Even if ISIS is prevented from pushing into southern Iraq, which produces the vast majority of the country's 2.5 million barrels per day of exports, energy experts say output could fall back as foreign oil companies withdraw staff due to security concerns. World growth forecasts have already been cut for 2014, in part due

to the deep winter freeze which caused the U.S. economy to shrink in the first quarter. Further sustained gains in oil prices could make for a weaker rebound in the second half. And it's not just major Western economies that would feel the pinch. China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the world's biggest importer of oil this year .

India , Asia's third biggest economy, is also highly sensitive to rising energy prices . Operating conditions

in China's vast manufacturing industry improved for the first time in six months in June , according to HSBC's

preliminary survey of purchasing managers. But that's likely due to a recent mini-stimulus package , which may do little more than sustain growth at 7.4% , the rate seen in the first quarter. The government has targeted growth of 7.5% this year.



http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/16/news/economy/imf-us-forecast/?iid=EL

http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/15/news/economy/china-gdp/index.html?iid=EL

http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2014/04/02/china-stimulus/?iid=EL

http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/30/news/economy/india-gdp/index.html?iid=EL

http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/13/investing/oil-iraq-supply/index.html?iid=EL



Multiple factors make China’s economy particularly vulnerable to oil price spikes Waka Leaks, alternative news outlet writing about non-traditional stories and perspectives, April 16, 2014, “Is China Poised for a Hard Landing?”, Accessed July 23, 2014, http://wakaleaks.co.nz/featured/is-china-poised-for-a-hard-landing/

China also has a major demographic challenge. Because of the one child policy, China has a rapidly ageing population, just as

Western countries do. The proportion of workers to retirees in China is dwindling, which presents a challenge to economic growth. Similarly, wages in China are rising. Although this is usually a good thing, rising wages have eroded China’s competitive advantage for low labour. Some factories have relocated to places like

Thailand, Vietnam, or Cambodia in search of lower labour costs. Similarly, high oil prices threaten to derail China’s

export growth. The more expensive fuel is, the less sense it makes for companies to ship goods

across the world from China.



http://wakaleaks.co.nz/featured/is-china-poised-for-a-hard-landing/



Chinese increasing reliance on Middle Eastern oil makes them uniquely vulnerable to oil price shocks Dan Steinbock, recognized expert of the multipolar world. He focuses on international business, international relations, investment and risk among the major advanced economies (G7) and large emerging economies (BRICS and beyond). He is affiliated with major US universities as well as international think-tanks, such as India China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and EU Center (Singapore), June 24th, 2014, “The ISIS Caliphate: How Much Will it Cost the U.S., China and the Rest of the World?”, Accessed July 23, 2014, http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/06/the-isis-caliphate-how-much-will-it-cost-the-u-s-china-and-the-rest-of-the-world/

China buys about half of Iraq’s oil exports. China National Petroleum Corp, the mainland’s largest oil producer, has four projects in Iraq, which makes it the largest foreign investor there . Chinese investors are

located mainly in Southern Iraq, whereas the turmoil has taken place in northern parts of the country, so far. In the short-term, the crisis will increase oil prices in China; a longer-term scenario would compel Beijing to increase its oil imports from other producers, including Russia, Iran, and Oman. At the recent 6th China-Arab States Cooperation Forum in Beijing, President Xi Jinping called upon Arab nations to upgrade their strategic relationships with China, by deepening bilateral cooperation from finance to energy and space. In 2013, China surpassed the US as the world’s largest net importer of crude oil and other liquid quells. In the medium-term, US oil reliance on the Middle East is steadily decreasing, while China’s is steadily increasing. In Washington, this is seen as vulnerability because it

makes China more dependent on Arab oil. In Beijing, it is perceived as an opportunity because economic interests support strategic cooperation.



http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/06/the-isis-caliphate-how-much-will-it-cost-the-u-s-china-and-the-rest-of-the-world/

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/06/the-isis-caliphate-how-much-will-it-cost-the-u-s-china-and-the-rest-of-the-world/

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/author/dsteinbock


OCS Good—Peak Oil Not True

Peak oil theory not true and economically irrelevant Ari Armstrong, assistant editor of The Objective Standard. He blogs at AriArmstrong.com, and he has written for publications including the Denver Post and Complete Colorado, May 14, 2014, “Environmentalists: Peak Oil and No Peak Oil, Equally Bad”, Accessed July 23, 2014, http://www.theobjectivestandard.com/2014/05/environmentalists-peak-oil-peak-oil-equally-bad/

Does anyone remember “peak oil” scaremongering? Environmentalists popularized the story about “peak oil” to argue that, because we’re “running out” of fossil fuels, therefore government should throttle fossil fuel producers and subsidize “alternative” energies from wind and solar sources. The notion of “peak oil” is scientifically fallacious because, with better methods of discovering and extracting fossil fuels, known reserves keep expanding, not contracting . Sure, there’s a theoretical limit to the amount of fossil

fuels people can extract, but so far we’ve used the proverbial drop in the bucket. Jeffrey Rissman reports: [T]he Energy Information Administration reports that in 1977, the United States had just 32 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 207 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves. Between 1977 and 2010, the U.S. extracted 84 billion barrels of oil (2.6 times the 1977 reserve estimate) and 610 trillion cubic feet of gas (2.9 times the reserve estimate). And, large reserves remain. In fact, in recent years, the size of U.S. reserves has actually grown (by more than a third since 2011), primarily as a result of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technologies that enable economical access to oil and gas deposits trapped in underground rock formations. Just as “peak oil” is scientifically fallacious, so too is it economically fallacious. If the availability of fossil fuels began to dwindle, as it did, the price of such fuels would rise, and entrepreneurs would begin to invest in economically feasible alternatives , with no “help” from the government required. (Given today’s technologies, nuclear power, not wind and solar energy, offers the only serious, large-scale alternative to fossil fuels—to the degree governments refrain from throttling that technology.)



http://www.theobjectivestandard.com/issues/2013-fall/nuclear-energy-safe-clean-cost-effective/

http://www.livescience.com/37469-fuel-endures.html

http://ariarmstrong.com/

http://www.theobjectivestandard.com/author/aarmstrong/


OCS Good—Peak Oil Not True

Peak oil theorists are wrong—much more accessible reserves of oil and gas than predictedDieter Helm, Professor of Energy Policy at the University of Oxford, Fellow in Economics at New College Oxford, Energy Policy Volume 64, January 2014, Pages 29–35, “The European framework for energy and climate policies”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513004151

Without nuclear for Germany and several other European countries, with the Kyoto leadership role having no visible impact (or indeed ever likely to), the EU's Climate change strategy was holed beneath the water line. But these considerations pale into insignificance when compared with the central error in Europe's policies. As noted above, it assumed that fossil fuel prices would go ever up, and hence that building current renewables would give it competitive advantage and hence provide the basis for growth. Just as the ink was drying on the 2020-20-20

Package, shale gas was beginning to effect a remarkable transformation of US energy markets. The Europeans seem not to have noticed that the energy world around them was being turned on its head, and their assumptions based

upon peak oil and fossil fuel scarcity were turning out to be very wrong . The US shale gas story played

out across to shale oil and other unconventionals, whilst its conventional oil production increased . By

2012, the US had the fastest growing oil production in the world, could contemplate exporting gas (rather than very large scale importing), and over the coming decades could even image Nixon's 1970 goal of energy independence becoming a reality—or at least for the north American continent. These new developments were not only confined to the US. Unconventionals turn out to be widely distributed, including in Argentina, China, Russia, Australia, Algeria, and the Ukraine-indeed almost anywhere where there

are shale rocks. The world turns out not to be running out of fossil fuels as the peak oil theorists

imagined. On the contrary, there is enough to fry the planet several times over. Australia could potentially export more coal-bed methane than Qatar's natural gas by 2020. Then there were a string of conventional finds—notably off East Africa, the eastern Mediterranean and yet more conventional finds in the North Sea. All this is before the Arctic opens up.



http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03014215/64/supp/C

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03014215

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513004151


OCS Good—UQ—No Drilling Now

Oil search green lit in the Atlantic OCS, but 2017 moratorium prevents any drilling Michael Wines, writer for the NY Times, February 27, 2014, “U.S. Moves Toward Atlantic Oil Exploration, Stirring Debate Over Sea Life”, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/28/us/us-moves-toward-atlantic-oil-exploration-stirring-debate-over-sea-life.html

The Interior Department opened the door on Thursday to the first searches in decades for oil and gas off the Atlantic coast, recommending that undersea seismic surveys proceed, though with a host of safeguards to shield marine life from

much of their impact.¶ The recommendation is likely to be adopted after a period of public comment and over objections by

environmental activists who say it will be ruinous for the climate and sea life alike.¶ The American Petroleum Institute called the recommendation a critical step toward bolstering the nation’s energy security, predicting that oil and gas

production in the region could create 280,000 new jobs and generate $195 billion in private investment.¶ Activists were livid. Allowing exploration “could be a death sentence for many marine mammals, and is needlessly turning the Atlantic Ocean into a blast zone,” Jacqueline Savitz, a vice president at the conservation group Oceana, said in a statement on

Thursday.¶ Oceana and other groups have campaigned for months against the Atlantic survey plans, citing Interior Department calculations that the intense noise of seismic exploration could kill and injure thousands of dolphins and whales. ¶ But while the assessment released on Thursday repeats those estimates, it also largely dismisses them, stating that they employ multiple worst-case scenarios and ignore measures by humans and the mammals themselves to avoid harm.¶ Many marine scientists say the estimates of death and injury are at best seriously inflated. “There’s no argument that some of these sounds can harm animals, but it’s blown out of proportion,” Arthur N.

Popper, who heads the University of Maryland’s laboratory of aquatic bioacoustics, said in an interview. “It’s the Flipper syndrome, or ‘Free Willy.’ ”¶ How the noise affects sea mammals’ behavior in the long term — an issue about which little is known — is a much greater concern, he said.¶ A formal decision to proceed with surveys would reopen a swath off

the East Coast stretching from Delaware to Cape Canaveral, Fla., that has been closed to petroleum exploration since the early 1980s.¶ Actual drilling of test wells could not begin until a White House ban on production in the Atlantic expires in 2017, and even then, only after the government agrees to lease ocean tracts to oil companies , an issue officials have barely begun to study.¶ The petroleum industry has sunk 51 wells off the East Coast — none of them successful enough to begin production — in decades past. But the Interior Department said in 2011 that 3.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 312 trillion cubic feet of natural gas could lie in the exploration area, and nine companies have already applied for permits to begin surveys.¶ President Obama committed in 2010 to allowing oil and gas surveys along the same stretch of the Atlantic, and the government

had planned to lease tracts off the Virginia coast for exploration in 2011. But those plans collapsed after the Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster in April 2010, and the government later banned activity in the area until 2017.




OCS Good—UQ—No Drilling Now

Federal law currently prevents granting leases or drilling for oil in the Atlantic OCSPaul Hillegeist, President and CEO of Quest Offshore oil/ gas corporation, December 2013,“The Economic Benefits of Increasing U.S. Access to Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Atlantic”, Accessed July 23, 2014, http://www.noia.org/wpcontent/ uploads/2013/12/The-Economic-Benefits-of-Increasing-US-Access-to-Offshore-Oil-and- Natura....pdf)

Oil and natural gas account for over 60 percent of U.S. primary energy consumption. Oil and natural gas exploration and production is also a key driver of economic and employment growth in the United States. Despite the benefits of oil and natural gas development , a significant portion of the oil and natural gas resources of the United States

are inaccessible to operators , most notably 85 percent of the U.S. outer continental shelf (OCS) . These offshore areas are inaccessible to operators due to a lack of lease sales by the Federal government or outright moratoriums. 5 Drilling restrictions in t he Atlantic OCS of the United States were l ifted in 2008 . However, since no Federal lease sales have occurred, there has been no oil and natural gas development in the Atlantic OCS . A lease sale off

of the coast of Virginia was scheduled for November 2011, but was subsequently canceled. The current 2012 to 2017 schedule of Federal offshore leasing does not include any proposed leases off of the U.S. Atlantic coast. Therefore the earliest leasing could begin in the Atlantic OCS , without changing the current leasing schedule, would be late 2017 . The lack of lease sales in the Atlantic OCS prevents oil and gas operators from

exploring and producing oil and gas from one of the key untapped energy resources in the country .

Allowing safe, well regulated exploration and production from this area would furt her enhance the nation’s energy security, enhance America’s trade balance, and provide significant employment and economic benefits both to the affected region as well as the country as a whole.




OCS Good—UQ—Shocks coming

Oil prices will increase—instability in Iraq and African shrinks supply US Energy Information Administration, collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, July 8, 2014, “Short-Term Energy Outlook”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/

Unrest in Iraq put upward pressure on world oil prices last month, helping North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices reach their highest daily level of the year at just over $115/barrel (bbl) on June 19. North Sea Brent

crude oil spot prices increased from a monthly average of $110/bbl in May to $112/bbl in June. This was the 12th consecutive month in which the average Brent crude oil spot price ranged between $107/bbl and $112/bbl . EIA projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110/bbl in 2014 and $105/bbl in 2015, $2/bbl and $3/bbl higher than projected in last month's STEO, respectively. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price discount to Brent is expected to average $9/bbl and $10/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively. During this year's April-through-September summer driving season,

regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.66/gallon (gal), 8 cents higher than last year. Regular gasoline retail prices are projected to fall from an average of $3.68/gal during the second quarter to $3.64/gal during the third quarter as lower refinery margins more than offset higher crude oil prices. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.54/gal in 2014 and $3.45/gal in 2015, compared with $3.51/gal in 2013. U.S. total crude oil production, which averaged 7.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013, is expected to average 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015. The 2015 forecast represents the highest annual average level of oil production since 1972. Natural gas plant liquids production increases from an average of 2.6 million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.0 million bbl/d in 2015. The growth in domestic production has contributed to a significant decline in petroleum imports. The share of total U.S. liquid fuels consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 33% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 22% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1970.



http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/



Supply disruptions coming now which jack oil prices causing shocks Admiral Dennis C. Blair, Former Director of National Intelligence and Former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacific Command, January 22, 2014, “Oil Security 2025 U.S. National Security Policy in an Era of Domestic Oil Abundance”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-01-22/oil-security-2025- report-us-remains-vulnerable

Nevertheless, today the United States still consumes more oil than China, Japan, and Russia combined.308

Moreover, although they are declining, imports—particularly of crude oil—still account for a meaningful portion of supplies. Imported crude accounted for slightly more than 50 percent of U.S. supplies in 2013.309 Even more importantly, the impact of U.S. oil dependence has risen in recent years as oil prices

have reached new highs, thereby limiting U.S. economic growth . Thus, despite rising efficiency and rising domestic oil production, the United States remains vulnerable to price fluctuations in the short to- medium term. The two recommendations below will strengthen the U.S. economy’s resistance to and resilience in the face of high and volatile prices, with sizeable economic and national security benefits.





Global supply at risk—means likelihood of shocks is high Jenny Cosgrave, writer/producer at CNBC.com covering the buy side, economics and markets. Previously she worked as a correspondent for Investment Week, covering the U.K. asset management industry, July 11, 2014, “Oil supply risks for 2015 'extraordinarily high'”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101828921

Oil prices are heading for their third consecutive weekly loss as tensions in the Middle East and North Africa ease, but supply risks in the region for next year remain "extraordinarily high ", the International

Energy Agency (IEA) warned. Markets are "more optimistic" about future supply, the energy watchdog said in its July report

on Friday, as it predicted that global demand was set to climb to 1.4 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2015, from 1.2

million mb/d in 2014. But it warned that geopolitical uncertainty would remain very much in focus for the year ahead. "The global economy is still expected to gain momentum in 2015. Supply risks in the Middle East and North Africa, not least in Iraq and Libya, remain extraordinarily high ," IEA said, making its first forecasts for next year. "The risks

associated with the 2015 forecast are particularly high. Notably, geopolitical uncertainty in Iraq, Ukraine, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela bring with them macroeconomic uncertainty." Oil futures climbed to a nine month high of more than $115 per barrel in June amid the Iraq crisis, but Brent prices have since fallen to around $108 dollars a barrel, as supply concerns eased. Commodity analysts at Commerzbank said that Brent's fall below $108 on

Thursday - after nine straight days of falls, as geopolitical tensions cooled - was the longest losing streak for over four years. "The continuing prospect of increased oil supplies from Libya in the wake of operations resuming at a major oilfield and the two biggest oil ports are a negative factor for prices," Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research

at Commerzbank, said in a note Thursday. "Another setback came (Wednesday) with the announcement of China's crude oil imports. According to the customs authorities, China imported 5.67 million barrels of crude oil a day in June, almost 8 percent less than in May." Oil demand in 2015 will be led by the non-OECD sector, the IEA said. Demand in this region overtook the OECD's in 2014, and it is expected to widen its lead in 2015. Read MoreOil is not Nigeria's future: Finance

Minister "Many non ‐ OECD economies are entering a stage of development where rising household incomes and expanding industrial activity typically fuel relatively fast oil consumption growth," according to the group.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/101828921


OCS Good—A/T Environment

New technology solves risk of oil spills and other environmental problems Institute for Energy Research, a Washington, DC-based non-profit energy advocacy organization, Accessed July 24, 2014, “Policy Area: Outer Continental Shelf”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/topics/policy/ocs/

The memory of offshore oil spills, like the 1969 blowout on Union Oil’s Platform A offshore from Santa Barbara, may deter some individuals from supporting offshore drilling. Opponents of domestic energy production on the OCS prey on the public’s fears that such an event will occur again, even though advances in exploration and production technology have greatly diminished the risks . The pursuit of safety has led to innovative technologies and modern methods that are more efficient and environmentally sound. For example: Advanced 3-D seismic and 4-D time imaging technologies enable offshore operators to locate oil and gas resources far more accurately, resulting in less drilling and greater resource recovery. All offshore wells have storm chokes that detect damage to surface valves and shut off the well in

emergencies to prevent spills. Blowout preventers – devices that would have prevented the Santa Barbara accident had they existed in

1969 – are installed beneath the seafloor. Sensors continuously monitor the subsurface and subsea-bed conditions to prevent spills in the event of unexpected changes in well pressure. Drill cuttings, a waste product of rock pieces and drilling fluids produced when drilling a well, are now finding new uses as raw material for bricks, roads, and even rebuilding Louisiana’s wetlands.




OCS Good—A/T Renewables DA

Renewable energy can’t replace oil—either this disproves the tradeoff link or the impact Koinonia House, online news and advocacy organization publishing on various issues, March 11, 2014, “The Keystone Pipeline”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.khouse.org/enews_article/2014/2214/print/

The United States imported approximately 40% of its oil in 2012. Oil production from the shales in North Dakota has helped decrease U.S. oil imports since 2011, but despite increased energy efficiency in America, world crude oil demand is expected to rise by a million barrels-per-year over the next decade, reaching between 105 million and 110 million barrels a day by 2025. Wind and solar technologies have been improving and efforts to use alternative energies have spread dramatically during the past ten years, but these technologies are still insufficient to replace the power derived from fossil fuels. And

while the United States continues to face insecurities due to oil dependency on foreign sources , still the Keystone XL Pipeline controversy continues. Dozens of the protestors who blocked entrances to the William J. Green Federal Building in Philadelphia on Monday were arrested and taken away, while those left behind congratulated them as “climate heroes.”




OCS Good—A/T Renewables DA

Oil prices no longer key—renewables are price competitive with oil even in a world of oil now. Concerns over warming make renewables inevitable The World Nuclear Association, international organization that promotes nuclear energy and supports the many companies that comprise the global nuclear industry, June 2014, “Renewable Energy and Electricity”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Energy-and-Environment/Renewable-Energy-and-Electricity/

Technology to utilise the forces of nature for doing work to supply human needs is as old as the first sailing ship. But attention swung away from renewable sources as the industrial revolution progressed on the basis of the concentrated energy locked up in fossil fuels. This was compounded by the increasing use of reticulated electricity based on fossil fuels and the

importance of portable high-density energy sources for transport – the era of oil. As electricity demand escalated, with supply depending largely on fossil fuels plus some hydro power and then nuclear energy, concerns arose

about carbon dioxide emissions contributing to possible global warming . Attention again turned to the huge sources of energy surging around us in nature – sun, wind, and seas in particular . There was never

any doubt about the magnitude of these, the challenge was always in harnessing them. Today we are well advanced in meeting that challenge. Wind turbines have developed greatly in recent decades, solar photovoltaic technology is much more efficient, and there are improved prospects of harnessing tides and waves. Solar thermal technologies in particular (with some heat storage) have great potential in sunny climates. With government encouragement to utilise wind and solar technologies, their costs have come down and

are now in the same league as the increased costs of fossil fuel technologies due to likely carbon emission charges on electricity generation from them.



http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Energy-and-Environment/Renewable-Energy-and-Electricity/

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Energy-and-Environment/Renewable-Energy-and-Electricity/

http://www.world-nuclear.org/


OCS (Outer Continental Shelf) Bad – Neg)




OCS Bad—A/T “Supply Shortage”

Status quo drilling solves the aff—no need for additional productionPaul Davidson, economics reporter who covers topics such as jobs, consumer spending and manufacturing, February 9, 2014, “U.S. may be inching toward oil independence”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/07/falling-oil-imports/5268819/

U.S. oil imports fell sharply again in 2013 while petroleum exports rose, leading some analysts to proclaim that a new era of energy independence is just a few years away. Experts largely credit new drilling techniques that have unearthed vast troves of previously inaccessible oil embedded in shale deposits in states such as

North Dakota and Texas. "We're at the beginning of a long upswing," says Citigroup analyst Eric Lee. Crude oil imports declined 9% last year to 2.8 billion barrels, lowest since 1995, and are down 17% since 2010, according to the

Census Bureau. Meanwhile, exports, mostly of refined gasoline and diesel, rose about 11%, narrowing the country's petroleum deficit by about $59 billion, or 20%, to $233 billion. Lee attributes the exports' increase to the abundance of U.S. oil and reduced U.S. consumption as fuel-efficient vehicles proliferate. The shrinking petroleum gap was almost entirely responsible for a $63 billion decline in the nation's overall trade deficit last year to $471.5 billion, the lowest since 2009, Census said. The nation's diminishing

dependence on foreign oil doesn't insulate it from wild price swings, because oil prices are set by global markets. But growing U.S.

production has added to the world's supply and prevented sharp price increases that could have resulted from political conflicts that reduced oil exports from Iran and Libya since 2012, analysts say. "U.S. crude oil production has played a major role in offsetting disruptions elsewhere," says Jim Burkhard, an analyst

with research firm IHS CERA. U.S. crude oil production increased to an estimated 7.7 million barrels a day last year from 6.5 million barrels a day in 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. The EIA expects production to rise another 16% by 2020. But Citigroup's Lee expects even more dramatic gains by then,

leaving the U.S. a net exporter of oil and making it virtually self-sufficient in oil production.



http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/07/falling-oil-imports/5268819/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/07/falling-oil-imports/5268819/


OCS Bad—A/T “Supply Shortage”

Increased oil production not sustainable—peak oil is coming despite technology and fracking boom Jared Anderson, staff writer for Breaking Energy provides access to news, analysis, thought leadership, reference materials and discussions about the day’s most important energy market trends, February 18, 2014, “Peak Oil is Real and the Majors Face Challenging Times”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://breakingenergy.com/2014/02/18/peak-oil-is-real-and-the-majors-face-challenging-times/

The recent surge in US liquids output – crude plus natural gas liquids (NGLs) – quieted the peak oil community. A well-known, largely peak oil-focused website – The Oil Drum – shut down in 2013, an event some considered the death knell of the peak oil theory. But not so fast says Steven Kopits from energy

business analysis firm Douglas-Westwood. Total global oil supply growth since 2005 – 5.8 million barrels per day – came from unconventional sources, shale oil and NGLs in particular, Kopits recently told the audience at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy . “Not only US, but global, oil supply growth is entirely leveraged to unconventionals right now,” and the legacy, conventional system still peaked in 2005, he said. This gets

a bit technical, as shale oil and liquids produced with natural gas are fed into the main crude oil stream and priced as such. But the strong degree to which increasing oil supply growth is dependent on unconventional sources is important to remember and often gets lost in the exuberance over top-line output figures. And despite prolific incremental oil and gas production made possible by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling advances, maintaining legacy production has been expensive and arguably of limited success.



http://breakingenergy.com/2014/02/18/peak-oil-is-real-and-the-majors-face-challenging-times/



http://breakingenergy.com/author/jaredanderson/



http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/events-calendar/global-oil-market-forecasting-main-approaches-key-drivers

http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/events-calendar/global-oil-market-forecasting-main-approaches-key-drivers


OCS Bad—A/T “Lowers Oil Prices”

High oil prices are inevitable—no new technology or ocean drilling can change thatKurt Cobb,author of the peak-oil-themed thriller, 'Prelude,' and a columnist for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen. He is a founding member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas—USA, and he serves on the board of the Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions, July 29, 2014, “Beneath new energy abundance, a slow-boil oil crisis”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2014/0729/Beneath-new-energy-abundance-a-slow-boil-oil-crisis

On the energy front, new hydraulic fracturing technology combined with horizontal drilling is being touted as the answer to high oil prices. But oil prices remain stubbornly elevated. And, the technology itself is designed to harvest oil from shale layers thousands of feet below conventional reservoirs, layers which are far more difficult and expensive to exploit. In a way, our extraction of shale-based oil should be

considered an emergency measure, one designed to forestall a decline in world oil production and

one that would never have been taken if the easy-to-get oil hadn't already been gotten. Likewise,

attempts to exploit oil under the Arctic Ocean (so far unsuccessful) are opening a new front in the era of "extreme oil" and should also be classified as emergency measures. But the public and policymakers generally do not view these developments in oil exploration with concern. On the contrary such efforts are touted as evidence of humankind's inevitable advance through clever manipulation of the environment using technology. It is just this idea of inevitability which holds the public mind in thrall regarding the economy with a promise that conditions will return to normal sometime soon--normal being defined down to include all sorts of emergency measures.



http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/shell-suspends-2014-arctic-drilling-in-alaska/24197086

http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Arctic+Ocean

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2014/0729/Beneath-new-energy-abundance-a-slow-boil-oil-crisis





Increased oil production in the OCS won’t lower oil/ gasoline prices Ken Green Burridge, CNN & Mother Earth News contributor, independent green journalist, photographer, author and sustainability activist that has published over 1000 articles, February 1, 2014, “Drilling for Oil or Building Pipelines Will Not Lower Pump Prices”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://kenburridge.com/drilling-for-oil-or-building-pipelines-will-not-lower-pump-prices/

The USA can’t drill their way to cheaper fuel prices it is a myth, so the “Drill Baby Drill” chant by the politicians of oil producing states really need to be silenced by logic as the USA consumes “18.6 million barrels per day (MMbd) of petroleum products during 2012” according to eia.gov and 95% of US transportation is dependent on oil. The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that, even if the entire lower 48 OCS were opened to drilling , this would increase cumulative U.S. oil production by only 1.6 percent by 2030 and would have an “insignificant” impact on prices.



http://kenburridge.com/drilling-for-oil-or-building-pipelines-will-not-lower-pump-prices/

http://kenburridge.com/drilling-for-oil-or-building-pipelines-will-not-lower-pump-prices/



Increased oil production hasn’t lowered prices—inverse relationship between increased production and low prices Minnesota Cornerstone, online publication by The Minnesota Corn Growers Association, April 23, 2014, “Domestic oil drilling isn’t stopping the annual summer gas price hike”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://minnesotacornerstone.com/?p=1818

As we drill for more oil than ever before in the United States, gas prices are going up . Yes, it’s that time of

year again. The snow is melting, temperatures are rising, families are making summer vacation plans, people are driving more, and (conveniently) gas prices are spiking. “Hold on a minute,” you might be saying. “We’re in the midst of a domestic oil boom. I thought that was supposed to lower gas prices?” Despite messages you might hear from Big Oil companies (often delivered through their friends in Washington D.C. and the media), increased domestic

drilling will not save you money at the pump . According to this story from the Wall St. Journal, U.S. gasoline stockpiles are at their lowest for this time of year since 2011, which is driving up prices. Why are gas stockpiles low and prices up if we’re drilling for more oil here at home? Because oil companies are exporting gas to other countries, creating a shortage in the U.S. and driving up prices again . From the Wall St. Journal story: …the retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline averaged $3.68 on Monday, up 4.2% from a year ago, according to the EIA. That is the highest price since March 2013. AAA had the average price on Monday at $3.67…Total petroleum exports, mostly gasoline and diesel, averaged about 3.6 million barrels a day last week, according to the EIA, up 25% from the same period last year. So instead of delivering on the promise of

lower gas prices with increased domestic drilling, Big Oil is just exporting more gas and once again

inflating gas prices as families prepare to hit the road for a summer getaway.



http://minnesotacornerstone.com/?p=1818


http://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/feeding-9-billion/#topskip



OCS Bad—A/T “Oil Dependence”

Squo solves oil dependence—we have lots of new sources of oil Tom Donilon, American lawyer and former government official who served as National Security Advisor in the Obama administration, July 3, 2014, “We're No. 1 (and We're Going to Stay That Way), Why the prophets of American decline are wrong”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/03/we_re_no_1_and_we_re_going_to_stay_that_way_american_decline

For most of the past 40 years, the United States thought of itself as a nation dependent on oil and energy-related events beyond our shores. Now, as U.S. innovation and technology allow us to tap unconventional resources, nearly every prediction about our energy future has been turned on its head. Today, the United States is the No. 1 producer of natural gas in the world, and the price of natural gas here is a fraction of what it is elsewhere. The International Energy Agency projects that the United States will be the world's largest producer of oil

by the end of the decade . Unconventional energy will propel our economy and support American jobs -- nearly 900,000 by next year will come just from shale gas. Meanwhile, our new energy security is allowing us to engage the world from a position of strength . It gives us the latitude to support allies and, if need be, punish adversaries. The success of the international sanctions on Iran, for example, was made possible in large part because Washington was confident that increased American supply afforded it the possibility of removing a million barrels of Iranian oil off the market each day without dramatic increases in gasoline costs to U.S. consumers. And it was the bite of those sanctions that ultimately brought the Iranians to the negotiating table last year.



http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/03/we_re_no_1_and_we_re_going_to_stay_that_way_american_decline

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/03/we_re_no_1_and_we_re_going_to_stay_that_way_american_decline


OCS Bad—A/T “Oil Dependence”

The plan can’t solve oil dependence—we need a diverse transportation energy portfolio oil alone cannot provide Dennis C. Blair, a former director of National Intelligence and former commander in chief of the United States Pacific Command, and Michael W. Hagee, 33rd commandant of the United States Marine Corps, serve as co-chairmen of the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics, a project of Securing America’s Future Energy, February 25, 2014, “Tempering Oil Dependence”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/opinion/tempering-oil-dependence.html?_r=0

Don’t be fooled: Despite advances in energy and automotive technologies, we remain as vulnerable as ever.

Since 1973, our transportation sector’s reliance on oil has dropped by just 3 percent, to 93 percent from 96 percent. Unless we act, 90 percent of our transportation will remain oil-dependent through 2030, according to the Department of Energy. And

we must expect interruptions to global oil supplies, oil-price spikes and market manipulation by OPEC. Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main story If America is to remain prosperous and secure in the 21st century, we must make significant progress toward ending our oil dependence. Improvements in fuel economy are a valuable move in the right direction, and President Obama’s announcement of tougher rules for trucks last week should be applauded. But efficiency alone is not enough. We need fuel diversity in the transportation sector to

shield our economy from swings in global oil prices . Our objective should be to reduce the role of oil in transportation to 50 percent within the next 25 years. We can accomplish this through more deployment of fuels like electricity and natural gas, which are domestic, plentiful and not subject to the kinds of anticompetitive forces that manipulate the global oil market. To measure progress, we should establish an

interim goal of 75 percent by 2030. This ambitious but achievable target would provide the American economy with a crucial degree of insurance against future oil-price spikes, while supporting economic growth and a healthy balance of trade. We propose a three-pronged strategy.



http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/opinion/tempering-oil-dependence.html?_r=0#story-continues-2

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/opinion/tempering-oil-dependence.html?_r=0#story-continues-2


OCS Bad—A/T “Economy”

Offshore drilling won’t help the economy—kills off far more valuable tourism Brianna Elliott, staff writer for Eco Watch, July 3, 2014, “Another North Carolina Town Stands Up Against Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://ecowatch.com/2014/07/03/town-stands-for-marine-life-no-offshore-drilling/

Kill Devil Hills, a small coastal town located in North Carolina’s Outer Banks, has joined the mounting opposition towards seismic airgun blasting along the Atlantic Coast. In early June, the Town of Kill Devil Hills’ Board of Commissioners passed the strongest resolution in opposition to date, which outlined specific economic and ecological consequences of

offshore drilling . Kill Devil Hills commissioners have adapted resolutions to oppose offshore drilling for nearly 30 years. “The 20 counties that comprise North Carolina’s coastal region generate more personal and commercial income, public revenues and employment opportunities , than the petroleum and natural gas industry is estimated to bring into the state,” the resolution said. The commissioners stated that revenue generated by tourism—totaled at a record $20.2 billion for 2013—far outweighs that of offshore drilling, estimated to be at $118 million annually over the first seven year build-up period. After that initial period, tourism would still generate more revenue than offshore drilling, estimated to then bring in $1.9 billion annually over a 30-year period. The commissioners noted that seismic airgun blasting threatens the very ecosystems—vast, beautiful

beaches—that drive the economy in North Carolina coastal counties.



http://ecowatch.com/2014/07/03/town-stands-for-marine-life-no-offshore-drilling/

http://oceana.org/sites/default/files/Oceana_Seismic_Airgun_Testing_Infographic_PDF.pdf

http://oceana.org/en/blog/2014/07/another-north-carolina-town-stands-up-against-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration

http://ecowatch.com/2014/02/28/seismic-airgun-testing-offshore-drilling-threaten-marine-life/

http://ecowatch.com/2014/07/03/town-stands-for-marine-life-no-offshore-drilling/

http://outerbanksvoice.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Resolution-Oppossing-Off-Shore-Exploration-of-Petroleum-Resources.6.9.2014.pdf

http://outerbanksvoice.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Resolution-Oppossing-Off-Shore-Exploration-of-Petroleum-Resources.6.9.2014.pdf


OCS Bad—A/T “Economy—Jobs”

Offshore drilling wrecks the economy and costs jobs—can’t solve the economy Peakoil.com, news and information website that writes about coming fossil fuel depletion, May 29, 2014, “(Don’t) Drill, Baby, Drill: Economic, Environmental, and Military Conflicts Associated with Offshore Drilling”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://peakoil.com/enviroment/dont-drill-baby-drill-economic-environmental-and-military-conflicts-associated-with-offshore-drilling

A 2011 Bureau of Ocean and Energy Management study found that there is less than two months supply of oil, at current rates of consumption, in the Mid- and South Atlantic combined. This crude oil must be refined into usable fuel, requiring significant infrastructure development in areas along the coast . Due to infrastructure

requirements, access to the small oil supply remains years away. These refineries and pipelines emit significant amounts of oil and fumes daily, polluting the surrounding air and water. Additionally, the areas in which drilling is being discussed are high productivity zones and are actively used for commercial fishing, outdoor recreation, and ecotourism. A 2013 PricewaterhouseCoopers report concluded that, as of 2011, Virginia brings in

$191,000 of seafood, making it the third largest seafood producer in the country. The same report attributed 10% of Virginia’s tourism to its beaches. The sportsman industry in these areas would be in jeopardy, putting billions of dollars and jobs at risk. Offshore drilling poses a huge threat to land and water health in addition to

habitats in these areas. Oil wells produce drilling muds that contain mercury , lead, and other toxic pollutants that contaminate the water supply and endanger organisms in these areas. It poses a notable risk to several endangered species, including the North Atlantic Right Whale . The BOEM PEIS on the effects of

geophysical activity in the Atlantic and found both the use of airguns and the potential risk of a spill to have moderate impacts on marine mammals, sea turtles, marine protected areas, and coastal and marine birds . On a

practical level, the lease sale off the coast of Virginia contains areas vital to Department of Defense and NASA. According to a DOD report , 72% of the proposed area in Virginia would interfere with naval activity and thus be un-drillable. Drilling operations would also interfere with NASA activity on Wallops Island. Losses to military operations in Virginia alone could cost $1.9 billion yearly.



http://www.vatc.org/uploadedFiles/Partnership_Alliance_Marketing/VirginiaStateTourismPlanVTC3292013.pdf

http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/2011_National_Assessment_Factsheet.pdf

http://moran.house.gov/press-release/virginia-shore-drilling-limits-says-dod-report

http://moran.house.gov/press-release/virginia-shore-drilling-limits-says-dod-report

http://peakoil.com/enviroment/dont-drill-baby-drill-economic-environmental-and-military-conflicts-associated-with-offshore-drilling

http://peakoil.com/enviroment/dont-drill-baby-drill-economic-environmental-and-military-conflicts-associated-with-offshore-drilling

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html


OCS Bad—A/T “Economy—Jobs”

Oil created job statistics are exaggerated Mari Hernandez, writer for the Center For American Progress, January 22, 2014, “Big Oil, Small Jobs: A Look at the Oil Industry’s Dubious Job Claims”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2014/01/22/82571/big-oil-small-jobs-a-look-at-the-oil-industrys-dubious-job-claims/

The oil and gas industry is one of the most lucrative industries in the United States . Its five largest companies—

BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and Shell—have earned more than $1 trillion in profits over the past decade. Yet this industry still fights tooth and nail to cling to its special tax provisions, worth at least $40 billion per decade. One of Big Oil’s most repeated rationales for keeping its exceedingly generous tax breaks, despite oil companies’ enormous profits, is its contribution to the U.S. employment numbers . However, a close

look at Big Oil’s claims finds that this employment effect is greatly exaggerated . In fact, our analysis of

government employment data identified far fewer direct jobs than the numbers hyped by the oil and gas industry. Furthermore, gas station employees—low-paid workers who sell convenience store goods and petroleum products—make up

nearly half of the direct jobs. Since 2009, the American Petroleum Institute, or API, has repeatedly claimed that the oil and gas industry has supported more than 9 million jobs in the United States. In written testimony before the

Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in 2013, API President and CEO Jack Gerard asserted, “Currently, the entire natural gas and oil industry supports 9.2 million U.S. jobs; accounts for 7.7 percent of the U.S. economy and delivers $86 million per day in revenue to our government.” These figures came from a 2009 PricewaterhouseCoopers, or PwC, study, which was paid for by API and employed economic impact modeling to determine direct, indirect, and induced employment impacts using 2007 data.



http://www.api.org/~/media/Files/News/2009/The%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20the%20Oil%20and%20Natural%20Gas%20Industry%20on%20the%20US%20Economy.pdf

http://www.api.org/news-and-media/testimony-speeches/2013/jack-gerard-testimony-committee-on-energy-and-natural-resources-feb-12-2013.aspx

http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag447.htm

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2014/01/22/82571/big-oil-small-jobs-a-look-at-the-oil-industrys-dubious-job-claims/

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2011/09/27/10397/big-oils-mountain-of-cash/


http://www.americanprogress.org/about/staff/hernandez-mari/bio/


http://www.api.org/news-and-media/news/newsitems/2009/sep-2009/oil-natural-gas-supports-9-million-american-jobs-7-and-a-half-percent-of-gdp

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2013/03/12/56240/meet-the-new-oil-tax-breaks-same-as-the-old-oil-tax-breaks/


OCS Bad—A/T “Manufacturing”

Plan can’t solve manufacturing and if it did manufacturing not key to US economy Michael Sekora, director of the Reagan administration’s Socrates Project and head of Operation U.S. Forward. February 4, 2014, “Reviving U.S. Manufacturing Is The Wrong Goal To Set To Improve The Economy”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2014/02/04/why-reviving-u-s-manufacturing-is-the-wrong-goal-to-set-to-improve-the-economy/

The reality is that the loss of the U.S. manufacturing base is only a symptom of the root disease that is causing America’s declining economic health . And just addressing this symptom and not the disease will not quell the symptom and will definitely not cure the disease. America built her economic might upon the effective acquisition and utilization of technology — technology-based planning . In earlier years, technology-based planning was at the core of companies like GM, DuPont and Dow and it enabled them to become worldwide industrial giants. Beginning at the end of World War II, companies throughout the U.S. began adopting and fully institutionalizing financial-based planning. The foundation of all decision-making in financial-based planning is the effective acquisition and utilization of funds, and the measure of success is how well the funds were optimized to accomplish the objective, e.g., generate a profit. In technology-based planning, outmaneuvering the competition in the acquisition and utilization of the technology that is required to produce the best product or provide the best service is the foundation of the decision making. The funds, with other resources, are what enable or hinder the acquisition and utilization of the technology. Once an entity determines how to outmaneuver the competition in the technology for a product or a service with a true competitive advantage in the marketplace, that entity can then optimize the funds and other resources . The disease killing

America’s economic health is financial-based planning, and one of the symptoms of this ongoing

disease is the loss of the U.S. manufacturing base . The total reliance of American companies, governments and academic institutions on financial-based planning is what caused them to divest the country of its manufacturing base and blinded them to the fact that this would cause a major shift in economic might from the U.S. to China and others. They could only see how divesting the U.S. of manufacturing would

optimize the utilization of funds. They could not see how it would decrease America’s ability to have a true competitive advantage in the marketplace, which, in turn, would undermine the economic health of the country. This same reliance upon financial-based planning will undermine all our efforts to reverse

the symptom of the loss of the U.S. manufacturing base. While U.S. decision makers and planners are focused on

optimizing the utilization of funds, China will be consistently neutralizing the U.S. efforts by adroitly outmaneuvering the U.S. in the acquisition and utilization of the technology, which is the foundation of the U.S. manufacturing base’s present and potential future competitive advantage .



http://operationusforward.com/home.html

http://projectsocrates.us/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2014/02/04/why-reviving-u-s-manufacturing-is-the-wrong-goal-to-set-to-improve-the-economy/





OCS Bad—A/T “China Economy”

China’s economy is resilient—economists have it backwards claiming slowed growth shows weaknessChina Daily, Chinese newspaper, April 17, 2014, “Chinese economy resilient enough to refute worries”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2014-04/17/content_17440595.htm

Some analysts claimed that China would turn back to stimulus and give up reform as a result of the slowdown. Some others even argued that the Chinese economy would slide down uncontrollably into an abyss and doom its trading partners. "By using its old trick of spending its way to growth, the mainland runs the risk of falling

deeper into its complicated structural problem," said Geogre Chen, a columnist with the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. As a matter of fact, such voices, eloquent as they may sound, cannot dim the outlook of the Chinese economy, whose future is decided by nothing but the combination of the country's economic policy and fundamentals. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said recently that the Chinese economy will not see a rapid dip and that the Chinese government is serious and determined to implement the reform. President of the World Bank (WB) Jim Yong Kim also said recently that despite the recent slowdown the Chinese government's resolve to restructure its economy is impressive . "The risk is not slower

growth," said Markus Rodlauer, the IMF's mission chief for China and deputy director of the fund's Asia and Pacific Department. "The

risk is that growth is not allowed to slow."



http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/ageing-population.htm


OCS Bad—A/T “India Economy”

India’s economy is resilient—steps have been taken over the last year to account for potential shocks Lalit K Jha, staff writer and financial analyst for Rediff news, February 21, 2014 “Indian economy resilient to external shocks, says IMF”, Accessed July, 30, 2014, http://www.rediff.com/money/slide-show/slide-show-1-indian-economy-resilient-to-external-shocks-says-imf/20140221.htm

The Indian economy is much more resilient to external shocks now than was last year, a top IMF official has

said, attributing this to a series of administrative decisions and policy measures taken by the Union Government . "We see India much more resilient than they were about the middle of last year to external shocks,” Paul Cashin, the International Monetary Fund Assistant Director of the Asia and Pacific Department told reporters

during a conference call. "In recent months, India has taken very substantial measures to narrow both its external and fiscal imbalances, tighten monetary policy, move forward on structural reforms, and address

aspects of this market volatility, " Cashin said in response to a question during the call. "The authorities have met their fiscal target for this fiscal year. "Investment project approvals are accelerating, and they're beginning to tackle the inflation issue by tightening the monetary stance," Cashin said. He said all these developments ‘certainly make India more resilient to any external shocks that may be coming along’ .



http://www.rediff.com/money/slide-show/slide-show-1-indian-economy-resilient-to-external-shocks-says-imf/20140221.htm






OCS Bad—A/T “Food Prices”

Plan can’t solve food prices—climate change is massive alt cause that will continue to drive prices upSuzanne Goldenberg, staff writer for The Guardian news agency, March 30, 2014, “Climate change 'already affecting food supply' – UN”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/31/climate-change-food-supply-un

The scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found evidence of climate change far beyond thawing Arctic permafrost and crumbling coral reefs – " on all continents and across the oceans ". But it was the finding that

climate change could threaten global food security that caught the attention of government officials from 115 countries

who reviewed the report. "All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change," the report said.

The scientists said there was enough evidence to say for certain that climate change is affecting food

production on land and sea . The rate of increase in crop yields is slowing – especially in wheat – raising doubts as to whether food production will keep up with the demand of a growing population . Changes in

temperature and rainfall patterns could lead to food price rises of between 3% and 84% by 2050. "Climate change is acting as a brake. We need yields to grow to meet growing demand, but already climate change is slowing those yields," said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton professor and an author of the report. Other food sources are also under threat. Fish catches in some areas of the tropics are projected to fall by between 40% and 60%, according to the report. The report also connected climate change to rising food prices and political instability , for instance the riots in Asia and Africa after food price shocks in 2008. "The impacts are already evident in many places in the world. It is not something that is [only] going to happen in the future," said David Lobell, a

professor at Stanford University's centre for food security, who devised the models. "Almost everywhere you see the warming effects have a negative affect on wheat and there is a similar story for corn as well. These are not yet enormous effects but they show clearly that the trends are big enough to be important," Lobell said.



http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/31/climate-change-food-supply-un

http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/index.html

http://www.theguardian.com/profile/suzannegoldenberg

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/31/climate-change-food-supply-un

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/28/ipcc-report-climate-change-report-human-natural-systems


OCS Bad—A/T “Food Prices”

Weather, political instability, and increasing global demand make up the majority of food price increases Jeremy Tordjman, writing for Agence France Presse, May 29, 2014, “World Bank Sounds Alarm On Sharp Rise In Global Food Prices”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.businessinsider.com/world-bank-global-food-prices-2014-5

World food prices rose in the first quarter of the year for the first time since their all-time high in August 2012, driven by rising demand in China, drought in the United States and unrest in Ukraine . According to the

World Bank, internationally traded food prices increased by a sharp 4.0 percent. The leap was led by wheat and maize, up 18 percent and 12 percent, respectively. As a result, international food prices in April were only 2.0 percent lower than a year ago and 16 percent below their record level in August 2012, the bank's

quarterly food price report said. "Increasing weather concerns and import demand -- and, arguably, to a lesser extent, uncertainty associated with the Ukraine situation -- explain most of the price increases ," the

report said.



http://www.businessinsider.com/world-bank-global-food-prices-2014-5

http://www.afp.com/en/home

http://www.afp.org/


OCS Bad—Renewables Shift—Link

The affirmative has the wrong focus—more drilling isn’t the answer, we should be investing in renewable energy. The plan trades off with renewable energy Bob Dinneen, President and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, July 11, 2014, “Renewables Can Put the Brakes on High Gas Prices”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.wmicentral.com/opinion/editorials/renewables-can-put-the-brakes-on-high-gas-prices/article_6b0d3914-0897-11e4-969e-001a4bcf887a.html

As Americans hop in their cars this summer, gasoline prices are at a six-year high. Thanks to surging demand and continued turmoil in Iraq, gas is quickly approaching $4 per gallon. With prices rising so fast, there’s never been a more important time for America to invest in alternative sources of energy. The longer we’re dependent on oil, the longer we’re at the mercy of foreign political turmoil . One of the most promising alternative energy sources is ethanol, a renewable fuel derived from common agricultural goods like corn, wood chips and grasses.

Ramping up America’s ethanol production would drive down demand for oil and wean this country

off the volatility and sudden price swings that come along with it. And yet, despite the profound promise of ethanol, some politicians are pushing to stamp it out. They’re lobbying to repeal the Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires the use of ethanol in the national fuel supply to promote greater energy independence and a cleaner environment. This doesn’t make any sense. The modern energy market was borne out of the substantial industrial shifts stimulated by World War I. The resulting industrial ramp up generated planes, submarines and tanks that all relied on the internal combustion engine . Even after the

conflict ceased, the widespread commercial thirst for oil remained strong. It’s grown steadily since.




OCS Bad—Renewables Shift—Link

High oil prices create major incentive to transition towards renewable energy Zach Coleman, is Energy and Environment Reporter for the Washington Examiner, July 2, 2014, “Energy Investments Face a Changing Climate”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://washingtonexaminer.com/energy-investments-face-a-changing-climate/article/2550434

Subsidiaries of companies such as Abengoa and NRG Energy have increasingly used the structure. Abengoa Yield PLC, the spinoff of the Spanish firm's U.S. subsidiary, netted a $29 per share initial public offering in June, amounting to a $2.32 billion valuation . Plenty of it has to do with cost. Projections are

that oil prices will rise, that cheap U.S. natural gas won't remain so inexpensive and that climate policies will raise the cost of using coal . At the same time, the cost of producing power from wind and solar have plummeted in recent years. "[I]n stark contrast to the observed long-term trend in the oil industry, the renewable-energy industry has achieved tremendous cost reductions in recent years, and we think this trend is likely to continue over the next two decades," Mark Lewis, senior analyst of sustainability research at Kepler Cheuvreux, said in a June memo. But it's also illustrative of the market's growing wariness about some carbon-intensive investments as nations are becoming increasingly keen to act on climate change. Reinsurance agencies are backing away from disaster-prone coastal areas threatened by rising sea levels. Investors and lenders also are factoring in a "shadow price" on carbon, which reflects financial risk for holding onto carbon-saturated investments. "The fossil fuel sector fails to explain how they can square an increased demand scenario with tackling climate change. Investors have called their bluff and they have admitted they are betting on a world with high oil prices and major climate change impacts," James Leaton, research director with London-based Carbon Tracker Initiative, said in a recent email.



http://washingtonexaminer.com/energy-investments-face-a-changing-climate/article/2550434

http://washingtonexaminer.com/section/coal

http://www.abengoa.com/web/en/noticias_y_publicaciones/noticias/historico/2014/06_junio/abg_20140612.html

http://washingtonexaminer.com/section/natural-gas

http://washingtonexaminer.com/section/oil


OCS Bad—Renewables Shift—Impact

The disad solves the case—renewables can replace fossil fuels quickly Giles Parkinson, staff writer for Green Tech Media, February 12, 2014, “Grantham: Wind, Solar to Replace Fossil Fuels Within Decades”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/grantham-wind-solar-to-replace-fossil-fuels-within-decades

“The potential for alternative energy sources, mainly solar and wind power, to completely replace coal and gas for utility generation globally is, I think, certain.” Legendary hedge fund investor Jeremy Grantham says there is no doubt that solar and wind energy will “completely replace” coal and gas across the globe -- it is just a

matter of when. The founder of $100 billion funds manager GMO Capital is known as a contrarian. But he suggests that the pace of change in the fuel supply will surprise everyone, and will have huge implications for fossil fuel investments. “I have become increasingly impressed with the potential for a revolution in energy, which will make it extremely unlikely that a lack of energy will be the issue that brings us to our knees,” Grantham writes in his latest quarterly newsletter. “Even in the expected event that there are no important breakthroughs in the cost of nuclear power, the potential for alternative energy sources, mainly solar and wind power, to completely replace coal and gas for utility generation globally is, I think, certain." He continues, “The question is only whether it takes 30 years or 70 years. That we will replace oil for land transportation with electricity or fuel cells derived indirectly from electricity is also certain, and there, perhaps, the timing question is whether this will take twenty or 40 years.”



http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/grantham-wind-solar-to-replace-fossil-fuels-within-decades

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/grantham-wind-solar-to-replace-fossil-fuels-within-decades

http://www.greentechmedia.com/authors/RenewEconomy,+Giles+Parkinson



Renewable energy can fill in for fossil fuels on the supply side of the equation The Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), an independent research and media organization based in Montreal, March 24, 2014, “Replacing Fossil Fuel and Nuclear Power with Renewable Energy: Wind, Solar and Hydro Power”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.globalresearch.ca/replacing-fossil-fuel-and-nuclear-power-with-renewable-energy-wind-solar-and-hydro-power/5375036

It’s a MYTH that We Need Fossil Fuel Or Nuclear The big oil, gas, coal and nuclear companies claim that we need those energy sources in order to power America. Good news: it’s a myth. Mark Diesendorf – Associate Professor

and Deputy Director, Institute of Environmental Studies, UNSW at the University of New South Wales – notes: The deniers and scoffers repeatedly utter the simplistic myth that renewable energy is intermittent and therefore cannot generate base-load (that is, 24-hour) power. Detailed computer simulations, backed up with actual experience with wind power overseas, show that the scoffers are wrong . Several countries, including

Australia with its huge renewable energy resources, could make the necessary transition to an electricity generation system comprising 100 per cent renewable energy over a few decades. *** Feasibility has been established by computer simulations of electricity generation systems by several research groups around the world, including my own … Diesendorf gave an update earlier this month: Ben Elliston, Iain MacGill and I have performed thousands of computer simulations of 100% renewable electricity in the National Electricity Market(NEM), using actual hourly data on electricity demand, wind and solar power for 2010. Our latest research, available here and reported here, finds that generating systems comprising a mix of different commercially available renewable energy technologies, located on geographically dispersed sites, do not need base load power stations to achieve the same reliability as fossil-fuelled systems. The old myth was based on the incorrect assumption that base load demand can only be supplied by base load power stations; for example, coal in Australia and nuclear in France. However, the mix of renewable energy technologies in our computer model, which has no base load power stations, easily supplies base load demand.



http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/mid-level-carbon-price-could-deliver-100-renewables-undercut-fossil-fuels-17855

http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/about-us/news-activities/2013/04/least-cost-100-renewable-electricity

http://www.globalresearch.ca/replacing-fossil-fuel-and-nuclear-power-with-renewable-energy-wind-solar-and-hydro-power/5375036

http://thegenerator.com.au/renewables-can-do-24-hour-base-load-anywhere-anytime/

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/97696.html





Renewable energy is key to prevent catastrophic climate change Clean Technia, news and advocacy website for clean and renewable technology, April 17th, 2014, “More Renewable Energy Needed To Avoid Catastrophic Climate Change”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/17/renewable-energy-needed-avoid-catastrophic-climate-change/

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reinforced the call to action from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to limit global temperature increase and avert catastrophic climate change in a

statement issued [this week]. The transition to a sustainable global energy mix must be accelerated, the Agency said,

in order to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 40-70 percent compared with 2010 by 2050. Renewable energy, IRENA highlights, is the economically viable and technologically proven option to keep CO2 levels below the widely accepted threshhold of 450 parts per million (ppm). “The latest report by the IPCC reconfirms that averting

catastrophic climate change is possible if we act now . But we need to act decisively. Renewable energy, in combination with energy efficiency, provides the most affordable and technologically mature path to bring about the necessary change,” Adnan Z. Amin, IRENA’s Director-General, said at the opening of the World Green Economy

Summit in Dubai. “The accelerated deployment of renewable energy significantly reduces energy-related carbon dioxide emissions at a reasonable cost, and also provides other benefits, including enhanced energy security, more local jobs and value-creation, and a cleaner and healthier environment.”



http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/17/renewable-energy-needed-avoid-catastrophic-climate-change/

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/17/renewable-energy-needed-avoid-catastrophic-climate-change/


OCS Bad—Economy/ Environment

OCS drilling would cause oil spills and leaks crushing the ocean ecoyststem and economically counter productive Friends of the Earth, members of Friends of the Earth International, a global network representing more than two million activists in 74 different countries, July 24, 2014, “To drill or not to drill? Obama's offshore drilling dilemma”, Accessed July 24, 2014, http://www.foe.org/news/blog/2014-07-to-drill-or-not-to-drill-obamas-offshore-drilling-di

The 2011 National Oil Spill Commission’s recommendations to improve offshore drilling safety have yet to be implemented, and oil and gas companies are not prepared for the risks associated with offshore drilling and do not have adequate oil spill contingency plans to mitigate the impacts of a potential spill. For example, Shell Oil was forced to cancel its 2013 and 2014 Arctic drilling plans when a series of accidents demonstrated a serious lack of preparedness when operating in the Arctic. In January 2014, the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit held that the Department of the Interior failed to adequately analyze the potential environmental effects of oil and gas leases in the Chukchi Sea, where Shell planned to drill. Offshore drilling is not economically wise.

Not only will it not lower gas prices, it could cost coastal communities millions in the form of

damaged beaches, impaired fisheries and reduced tourism . Twenty-five years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill, fisheries have not yet recovered, and oil continues to impact beaches on the Gulf coast from the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon spill. New oil and gas leasing on our nation’s O uter C ontinental S helf is the wrong direction for our climate, wildlife, economy and coastal communities , and is not at all in line with the

responsible stewardship we expect from our president. In order to fulfill the “moral obligation to future generations to leave them a planet that is not polluted and damaged,” President Obama should halt all new oil and gas leases in federal waters. Public comments on the proposed 2017-2022 five year plan are being accepted until July 31, 2014.



http://www.foe.org/about-us/friends-of-the-earth-international


OCS Bad—Climate Change

Drilling the OCS is a death nail for the environment—it rolls back progress being made to decrease Co2 emissions and locks in warming Richard Steiner, Professor and conservation biologist with the University of Alaska, July 17, 2014, “New Offshore Oil Plan Could Be 'Game Over' for Climate”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-steiner/new-offshore-oil-plan-wou_b_5589907.html

In a move that could rival the climate impacts of the Alberta tar sands and Keystone XL pipeline, and would release far more atmospheric carbon than that saved by the new EPA power plant and vehicle rules, the Obama administration just initiated its 2017-2022 process to expand oil and gas drilling on the nation's outer continental shelf ( OCS ) - including the Arctic, Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico . The initial

public comment period on the plan closes July 31, 2014. Despite the fact that many of the 2011 National Oil Spill Commission's recommendations to improve offshore drilling safety have yet to be implemented , and the certainty of more oil spills, this new leasing program would commit the nation to another 40 years of carbon-intensive energy that world climate cannot afford . In addition to the proven offshore reserves already in

production (currently providing 18% of domestic oil and 5% of domestic gas production), the government estimates that the U.S. OCS contains an additional 90 billion barrels of oil and 400 trillion cubic feet of natural gas yet to be discovered. Industry thinks there is more. History shows that once oil is discovered, it will be produced. Burning this much oil and gas would release over 60 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere - a 'carbon bomb' almost as large as the entire Alberta tars sands . Just as with the tar sands (with 168 billion barrels of proven reserves),

producing this U.S. offshore oil could be 'game over' for efforts to contain climate change . And this offshore carbon would dwarf the one or two billion tons of CO2 saved by the new power plant and vehicle rules by 2030 . Without doubt, the combined carbon from offshore oil (in the U.S. and other nations), and tar sands oil, would be disastrous for climate. But industry sees billions of dollars lying in the seabed, and seems to care little about climate impacts.



http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=BOEM-2014-0059-0001

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-steiner/

http://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas-overview/exploration-and-production/offshore/~/media/Files/Oil-and-Natural-Gas/Offshore/OffshoreAccess-Primer-lores.pdf

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/03/wonkbook-obamas-new-epa-rule-wont-save-the-world-and-it-wont-kill-the-economy/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/03/wonkbook-obamas-new-epa-rule-wont-save-the-world-and-it-wont-kill-the-economy/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-steiner/new-offshore-oil-plan-wou_b_5589907.html

http://www.energy.alberta.ca/oilsands/791.asp

http://www.boem.gov/79-FR-34349/

http://oscaction.org/wp-content/uploads/FINAL_OSCA-No2-booklet-Apr-2013_web.pdf

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-steiner/new-offshore-oil-plan-wou_b_5589907.html


OCS Bad—Oil Spills

OCS drilling has inherent environmental dangers—oil spills likely with the planNeela Banerjee, covers energy and environmental policy out of the Washington, D.C., bureau. She writes about federal policymaking and broader national issues, such as climate change, hydraulic fracturing and the Keystone XL pipeline, June 6, 2014, “Flawed drilling gear still in use after BP oil spill, board says”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-gulf-spill-20140606-story.html

Design problems with a blowout prevention system contributed to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster, and the same equipment is still commonly used in drilling four years after the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, according to a report issued

by the federal Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board. The board concluded that the "blowout preventer" — a five-story-tall series of seals and valves that was supposed to shear the drill pipe and short-circuit the explosion — failed for reasons the oil industry did not anticipate and has not fully corrected . Despite improved regulation of deep-water drilling since the disaster, the board found that problems persist in oil and gas companies ' offshore safety systems. "This results in potential safety gaps in U.S. offshore operations and leaves open the possibility of another similar catastrophic accident ," said Cheryl MacKenzie,

lead investigator of the safety board inquiry. The blowout of BP's Macondo well in April 2010 killed 11 men and spewed nearly 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, making it the worst offshore oil disaster in United States history. Several federal commissions have investigated the missteps that occurred on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the days and hours leading up to the explosion, which investigators said had its roots in corporate mismanagement and inadequate government oversight of the oil industry.



http://www.csb.gov/csb-draft-report-finds-deepwater-horizon-blowout-preventer-failed-due-to-unrecognized-pipe-buckling-phenomenon-during-emergency-well-control-efforts-on-april-20-2010-leading-to-environmental-disaster-in-gulf-of-mexico/

http://www.latimes.com/la-bio-neela-banerjee-staff.html

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-gulf-spill-20140606-story.html

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-gulf-spill-20140606-story.html


OCS Bad—Oil Spills

Offshore oil drilling inevitably causes oil spills—it’s a reality of the industry Oceana, the largest international organization focused solely on ocean conservation, April 16, 2014, “The BP Oil Disaster: 4 Years Later”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://oceana.org/en/our-work/climate-energy/offshore-drilling/learn-act/the-bp-oil-disaster-4-years-later

Oil's Destructive Cycle Four years after more than 200 million gallons of oil poured into the Gulf , the BP oil disaster serves as much more than a bad memory. It's a constant reminder of the damage that continues to reveal and manifest itself in countless ways, and the stark reality of the government's failure to restore the Gulf region, or improve industry practices.

The Obama Administration has not done enough to prevent future oil disasters. The oil industry continues to drill & spill at the expense of communities and habitats that rely on a healthy Gulf for their survival. Unlike the oil industry, the people and the communities in the Gulf of Mexico affected by the BP oil spill disaster live with the consequences every day, and it will take many more years for them to recover completely from the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. It's up to us to break the

cycle.



http://oceana.org/en/our-work/climate-energy/offshore-drilling/learn-act/the-bp-oil-disaster-4-years-later


http://oceana.org/en/about-us/what-we-do

http://oceana.org/en/about-us/what-we-do






OCS Bad—Hegemony

Access to cheap oil doesn’t prop US hegemony—creates a cycle where we have to continually spread military influence to maintain global supply. Mutes any benefits for hegemony Kris Michaud et al, Navy Commander Kris Michaud is an Information Warfare Officer assigned to the National Security Agency, Joe Buccino, Army Major Joe Buccino is an Army Public Affairs Officer serving a fellowship at the Georgetown University School of Continuing Studies, and Stephen Chenelle, Air Force Major Stephen Chenelle is a senior Air Battle manager serving as Command Executive Officer at Joint Interagency Task Force-South in Key West, Fl. He is an Evaluator Air Surveillance Officer with over 1,800 flying hours in two variants of the E-3, March 14, 2014, “The Impact of Domestic Shale Oil Production on U.S. Military Strategy and its Implications for U.S.-China Maritime Partnership”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-impact-of-domestic-shale-oil-production-on-us-military-strategy-and-its-implications-fo

Perspective on the role of oil globally is critical to an understanding of the context of America’s position relative to the Middle East given increased U.S. domestic production. Oil is a fungible commodity, having equal value

independent of source and demand destination. A decline in global demand by the U.S. can be offset by an increase in global demand by another country. Over the past decade, with an eye toward removing assets from the Middle East upon

completion of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, America reduced consumption and imported most of its oil from Canada, Venezuela, and Nigeria rather than the Middle East. This has not impacted the price of global oil as declining U.S. demand has been offset by increased demand from Asian-Pacific countries for the same oil source. This global nature of the oil market requires a credible military presence, U.S. or otherwise, to ensure access for all nations to benefit. Since 1957, Saudi Arabia’s global role has been to pump as much oil as necessary to keep

prices moderate and stable in return for security guarantees. Therefore, ensuring freedom of movement through the Strait of Hormuz, as prescribed though the Carter Doctrine, is the main reason the U.S. allocated forces to the Middle East. As the U.S. grows less dependent on the Middle East for oil, the fungible nature of oil means the U.S. must still ensure a stable price for itself and allies who do not have domestic production .

Assured access to oil therefore reduces energy supply shocks, which is key to the U.S. energy strategy

of affordability . The global nature of the oil market and the impact of supply insecurity within other major energy markets influence the globalized economy and ensures the United States must retain a keen eye on the Arabian Gulf and, by extension, the entire Middle Eastern region . Further, Iran and threats to Israel will likely require continued U.S. military focus on the area even as U.S. oil imports from the region wither. The problem, then, cuts both ways; domestic production frees the U.S. military force

structure to align with and be shaped by strategic objectives outside the Middle East, but there is a

limit to that freedom. The oil market necessitates an American strategy that includes supervision of the global commons, specifically maritime space. Maintaining free passage of energy products through maritime choke points is an explicit national interest of major global powers and the U.S. continues to commit naval resources to the most significant of these chokepoints, specifically the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca, and Singapore (Emmerson and Stevens, 2012). Since the U.S. cannot completely abandon the Middle East, leveraging its shale oil reserves to encourage more dependent countries to assist in the role of global policeman becomes increasingly attractive. China, with its expanding military and growing demand for Middle Eastern oil and militaries is an obvious choice to assist in securing these choke points.



http://smallwarsjournal.com/author/stephen-chenelle

http://smallwarsjournal.com/author/joe-buccino

http://smallwarsjournal.com/author/kris-michaud


OCS Bad—Hegemony

US hegemony decline is inevitable—even if the plan solves the economy and structural problems it can’t address lack of political will to effectively wield hegemony Robert Murray, Adjunct Professor of Political Science in the Department of Political Science at the University of Alberta and a Senior Fellow of Security and Defence at AIMS, February 4, 2014, “Obama and the Decline of American Hegemony”, Accessed July 30, 2014, http://www.troymedia.com/2014/02/04/obama-and-the-decline-of-american-hegemony/

The U.S. still has the money and power to be classified as a hegemon but the political will no longer seems to exist to behave like one. Other states smell blood in the water and have begun to assert themselves in ways that, previously in the era of American hegemony, they would not. Iran is unlikely to end its nuclear ambitions, regardless of what the U.S. demands; the Syrian civil war has been allowed to continue because of Russia’s meddling; and China’s gradual development of military technology and regional posturing in the Pacific has led many, including Canadians, to contemplate a fundamental shift in political and military

strategy to place Asia as the primary focus after years of Atlantic focus. As time goes forward, the U.S. will continue to experience difficulties as the world tests its declining hegemony, and Obama has done the U.S. no favours by mishandling foreign policy for so long. The world is coming and the U.S. had best begin to plan for it.



http://www.troymedia.com/2014/02/04/obama-and-the-decline-of-american-hegemony/


OCS Bad—Russian Economy

Low oil prices destroy the Russian economy—too dependent on oil sales Gene Epstein, economist writing for Barrons—economic and news outlet, March 29, 2014, “Here Comes $75 Oil”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111903536004579459323209921860

Over the next five years, the effects of the global oil-and-gas boom should prove a grim object lesson for the Russian economy on the downside of the "resource curse." Russia's economy "largely depends on energy exports," according to a study from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That works well when prices are

high, but quite badly when prices fall . Oil-and-gas revenues account for 70% of Russia's total exports and more than half the income of its federal government. Russia exports more than seven million barrels of oil a day, second only to Saudi Arabia. One key difference between Russia and the No. 1 exporter is that more than 60% of

Russian oil is produced in Siberia, where costs are much higher. A fall in the world price to $75 from $100 would therefore have a much greater impact on the net revenues that Russia earns from oil than is earned by the Saudis. The downside of the resource curse could also be felt in Russia's reliance on sales of natural gas. About 75% of Russia's natural gas exports go to Western Europe, providing 30% of its requirements, at prices that are two and three times the price in the U.S. That enormous premium stems from the fact that there is no world market for natural gas, given the prohibitive cost of shipping it in its unaltered state . Hence, the argument for accelerated approval of liquefied-natural-gas export terminals. With abundant natural gas now available in so much of the world -- including Australia, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina -- within the next five years, something resembling a global market in liquefied natural gas will likely develop. That would break the local monopoly of the Russians in their market, enabling Europeans to buy from other sources, and weighing on the premium Russian gas now commands.



http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111903536004579459323209921860



Decreasing oil prices tanks Russia’s economy—economy is fragile and susceptible to big price dips Steve LeVine, Quartz's Washington correspondent, writes about the intersection of energy, technology and geopolitics, founded and ran The Oil and the Glory, a blog on energy and geopolitics at Foreign Policy magazine, March 27, 2014, “Russia’s economy is not in great shape—but it’s nowhere near as bad as in 1998”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://qz.com/192559/russias-economy-is-not-in-great-shape-but-its-nowhere-near-as-bad-as-in-1998/

Then I went back to Sharma with the same question. He agreed with Gaddy that things do not look like 1998—yet, he added. But one must pay attention to the price of oil. Sharma said: “I wouldn’t say the Russian economy is in as bad a condition as it was in 1998 as its external debt is very low. However, if the price of oil falls by 15-20%, then the economy could really suffer. As I mention in the piece, the economy is already stagnating with oil still around $110 a barrel but given its low external debt it is not as yet as vulnerable as in 1998 .” The analyses in the major

international press do seem to contain a strain of gloating—many of them gleeful about the possibility that Russia might tank. If it does, the thinking appears to go, Putin is bound to back away from his march across Ukraine. That conclusion may or may not be valid. + The main thing is that the starting assumption appears to be wrong. Putin’s is still sitting on $493 billion in gold and foreign exchange reserves, and external debt of about $30 billion, or only 2% of GDP. Unless global oil prices take an unexpected dive , this is not the picture of an existential crisis.



http://qz.com/author/levinesteve/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/ukraine-crisis-russia-debt-idUSL6N0M72U720140311

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/ukraine-crisis-crimea-dmitriev-idUSL5N0ML1L620140326



Russian economy slowly trending down, sudden reductions in oil prices crush the Russian economy Matthew Boesler, formerly a reporter for Business Insider's markets desk. Previously, he hosted Benzinga Radio, a business news and investing program. He holds a degree in economics from the University of Michigan,March 21, 2014, “THE TRUTH ABOUT RUSSIA: 5 Charts That Show What A Disaster The Economy Is Under Putin”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.businessinsider.com/the-truth-about-russias-economy-2014-3

Finally, it's important to remember that, as Financial Times correspondent Joseph Cotterill puts it, "The entire economy

is a giant oil-price proxy." S&P spent some time on this point in its discussion of its ratings outlook revision. "The Russian government's finances continue to be buoyed by strong commodity revenues, particularly from oil," said

the rater. "Based on our expectation that commodity revenues will decline slightly on the back of a slightly weaker oil price (falling to $95 by 2015), we think the general government deficit will gradually worsen, reaching

1.5% of GDP by 2016, just outside the level targeted by the fiscal rule, and implying an average annual change in general government debt of 1.5% of GDP over 2013-2016."



http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/03/17/1801232/in-putins-russia-risk-prices-you/


OCS Bad—Russian Economy—A/T “Inefficient Oil Spending Now”

Russia is able to effectively use oil money to keep their economy afloat now—even if not most effective model it is working Mark Adomanis, MBA at the Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania with a focus on Russian politics, economics, and business, January 3, 2014, “Russia's Oil Industry Is Doing Fine, Which Is Great News For The Kremlin”, Accessed July 22, 2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/01/03/russias-oil-industry-is-doing-ok-which-is-good-news-for-the-kremlin/

But oil is important because, to use a bit of a crude turn of phrase, it essentially functions as a Kremlin slush fund. The Russian oil sector faces some of the highest taxes in the world, and the Russian government captures a staggeringly high percentage of the cost of each barrel. This money then courses through

the veins of the Russian economy : some of it is used to pay pensions, some of it is used to subsidize other inefficient industries,

and some of it, of course, simply disappears down the black hole of corruption. My point is not that the Kremlin is a particularly efficient or astute allocator of oil wealth, merely that it now has such enormous resources at its disposal that it will likely find a way to keep itself in power. A government with access to hundreds of billions of dollars of oil money seems like a government that will be around for awhile, particularly given how robust oil prices have been in the face of sustained economic weakness in the developed world.



http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/01/03/russias-oil-industry-is-doing-ok-which-is-good-news-for-the-kremlin/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/01/03/russias-oil-industry-is-doing-ok-which-is-good-news-for-the-kremlin/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/