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Page 1: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

1

Webcast

José Sergio GabrielliCEO

July 26th, 2011

Page 2: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect only the expectations of the Company's management regarding the future conditions of the economy, the industry, the performance and financial results of the Company, among other factors. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar expressions, are used to identify such statements. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Consequently, these statements do not represent assurance of future results of the Company. Therefore, the Company's future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations solely on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation and forward-looking statements in light of new information or future developments. Amounts informed for the year 2011 and upcoming years are either estimates or targets.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally viable under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discoveries, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.

Cautionary statement for U.S. investors:

DISCLAIMER

Page 3: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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62%38% Brasil

Outros

New Discoveries 2005‐2010

(33,989 million bbl) Deep‐Water Discoveries

Source: PFC Energy

BRAZIL LEADERSHIP IN RECENT DISCOVERIESDeep‐water discoveries in Brazil represent 1/3 of the worldwide discoveries in the last 5 years

• In the last 5 years, more than 50% of the new discoveries (worldwide) were made in deep waters;

• The development of these reserves will demand additional capacity from the supply chain;

• Expansion of the oil and gas chain in Brazil is in line with this perspective.

Petrobras expects to double its proved reserves until 2020, keeping the discovery cost around US$2/boe

Other Discoveries Deep-Waters

Brazil

Other

Page 4: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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INCREASE IN SALES VOLUMES

Sales Volume (thousand boe/day) 

652 718 731 899

706 699 586231

312 320

480

542593 634125136 147

290

401

1,078

1,3151,2041,0971,453

1,739

997

2,317436

738

906

9494 97

106

141

1717 17

38

79

3,4643,773 3,848

4,958

7,142

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

*2009 *2010 2011 2015 2020

Fertil izers

Electric Energy

Biofuel s

International  Sales(**)

Natura l  Gas(***)

Exports

Other Dis tribuitors

Sa les  to BR

BP 2011‐15 ‐ Petrobras Total Sales Volume

6.6% p.y.

5.6% p.y.

(**) International area sales and offshore trading operations free from eliminations.

(***) Natural Gas was converted to boe/d.

(*) Accomplished

Page 5: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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Investments Program

2011‐15

Page 6: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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2010‐14 Business Plan

53%

33%

2% 1%1% 2%

8%2,9

E&P RTC

Gás,Energia & Gás Química Petroquímica

Distribuição Biocombustíveis

Corporativo• 5% of investments will be made overseas, 87% of which in E&P.

• Obs:  HSEE  (US$  4.2  bi),  IT  (US$  2.7  bi),  Technology(US$ 4.6 bi), Logistics (US$ 17.4 bi) and Maintenance & Infrastructure (US$ 20.6 bi)

2011‐15 Business PlanUS$224.7 billionUS$224 billion

65,5

14,74,13,24,2

2,3

65,5

14,7

4,1

3,24,22,4

2011‐2015 INVESTMENTSInvestment level similar to the previous Plan, with more focus in E&P

57%31%

6%2% 1%1% 2%

(*) US$22.8 billion in Exploration

(*)

Biofuels

Gas, Energy & Gas Chemicals

Distribution

Corporate

E&PPetrochemicals

RTM

118.873.6

17.85.12.43.52.9

127.570.6

13.2

3.8

3.14.1

2.4

Page 7: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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Maintained

New

US$ billion

Excluded

192,6213,2

10,8

(R$ 419.7 billion)

BP 2011‐15BP 2010‐14

82,9

37%

141,1

63%

90,6

40%

134,1

60%

Total in Foreign Currency

Total in Local Currency

32,1

INVESTMENTS BP 2011‐15 VS. BP 2010‐14

0,3%

‐9,7%

(R$ 388.9 billion)

Maintained

US$ 224 billion US$ 224.7 billion

Changes in:FX rate 8.6Budget 1.5Schedule (23.7)Business model (0.6)Scope (6.4)

Page 8: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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Exploration & Production

+ US$8.7 billion

New Projects

• Transfer of Rights

• New Pre‐Salt Units (Lula)

• Infrastructure

• New Discoveries and R&D

Excluded, Revised and/or Postponed Projects

• Projects discontinued after unsuccessful exploratory phase

• Revision of Development Projects

KEY CHANGES IN PORTFOLIONew projects concentrated in E&P 

Gas & Energy

‐ US$4.6 billion

Supply (includes Petrochemicals)

‐ US$4.3 billion

New Projects• HPP Barra do Rocha I• HPP Bahia II

Projects concluded in 2010

• Gas pipelines: Gasene, Pilar‐Ipojuca, Gasduc III and Gasbel II 

Excluded, Revised and/or Postponed Projects

• Postponement of projects: UFN IV, UFN V, GTL Paraffins and Gas FSO 

• Exclusion of Catu‐camaçari gaspipeline and Ecomp Itajuípe

• Exclusion of HPP projects from 2010 auctions

New Projects

• New units Comperj

• Oil Logistics

Projects concluded in 2010

• Braskem investment

• Investments in quality

Excluded, Revised and/or Postponed Projects

• Postponement of Premium I Refinery

Page 9: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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75,7

224,751,0

41,4

33,55,4 4,113,5

0

50

100

150

200

250

Aprovadosaté 2009

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pós 2014 Total

275 projetos

95 projetos

104 projetos

112 projetos39 projetos

22 projetos 41 projetos

34%

23%

18%

15%6% 2% 2%

US$ billion

INVESTMENTS AND PROJECT APPROVAL TIMELINE

2011‐15 Period

US$224.7 billion688 projects

Approved until 2009

After 2014

95 projects

104 projects

112 projects39 projects

22 projects 41 projects

275 projects

Page 10: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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• E&P Investments (57% of total) ensure production growth and high IRR; 

• Other investments (43% of total) add value to the chain, generating returns equal or higher than the cost of capital;

• Investments in quality are a legal requirement. 

• Total investments (BP 2011‐2015) with attractive IRR;

• Petrobras is an integrated company ready to speed up production growth;

• Reduced cost due to a higher business integration and a leading position in a large and growing market. 

CONSOLIDATED RETURNSE&P drives results

ROCE

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Companhias Integradas Companhias de E&P Companhias de Refino

Source: PFC Energy

Integrated companies deliver better returns 

Integrated Companies Downstream CompaniesE&P Companies

Page 11: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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Analysis of the Plan’s

Funding Needs

Page 12: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

12Based on 2011‐2012 forecasts: Banks (Source: Bloomberg)

Based on 2013‐2015 forecasts: PIRA, DOE, CERA, WoodMackenzie, IEA

Petrobras’Scenarios

95

80

US$/bbl

OIL PRICEOil price assumptions within market's expectations 

Page 13: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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• Oil price 

• Foreign Exchange Rate

• Brazilian Market Growth 

• Average Realization Price (ARP) – Brazil

– International Parity

– International margins per product

• Oil and products exports and imports

• Investment Program 

• Divestitures and business restructuring

• Third‐party funding

Assumptions

No Capital Increase in the period

Investment grade maintenance

Key variables for Cash Generation and Investment Level

VARIABLESKey variables that impact the cash flow and funding needs

Page 14: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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125,0148,9

224,7 224,7

91,467,0

31,4 30,926,1 26,1

13,6 13,6

Scenario A  Scenario B

US$ 256.1 US$ 255.6US$ 256.1 US$ 255.6 Key assumptions

Scenario A Scenario B

Exchange rate (R$/US$)

1.73 1,73

Brent (US$/bbl)

2011 – 110 2011 – 110

2012 – 80 2012 – 95

2013 – 80 2013 – 95

2014 – 80 2014 – 95

2015 – 80 2015 – 95

Leverage (Average) 29% 26%

Net Debt/EBITDA (Average)

1.9 1.5

ARP (R$/bbl) 158 177Debt AmortizationInvestments

Divestment and RestructuringCashThird‐Party Resources (Debt)Operating Cash Flow (After Dividends)

Sources Use Sources Use

CASH GENERATION AND INVESTMENTSDivestment and traditional funding sources adequate for Plan needs

• 40% of capex in dollar in comparison to 37% in the previous Plan

Page 15: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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Exploration & Production 

US$127.5 billion

Page 16: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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Increase oil and gas reserves and production, in a sustainable manner, and be recognized for its excellence in E&P operations, placing the Company among the world’s 

five largest oil producers

2011‐15 Business Plan Highlights:

• 65% of Capex allocated to production development.

• 19 large projects, adding capacity of 2.3 million bpd.

• Drilling of more than 1,000 offshore wells, of these 40% is exploratory and 60% is production development.

• In 2020, the pre‐salt production will correspond to 40.5% of the oil production in Brazil.

STRATEGYSustainable development of hydrocarbon reserves

Page 17: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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• Annual investments of more than US$ 4 billion in exploration

• Investments  of  US$  12.4  billion  related  to  the  transfer  of rights areas in 2011‐15

• In the BP 2010‐2014, the forecasted  investment for the Pre‐Salt was of US$33 billion

Pre‐Salt

US$ 53.4 billion

Post‐Salt

US$ 64.3 billion

17%

65%

Production Development 

18%

Exploration

Infrastructure68%

Other areasTransfer of Rights

26%Pre‐salt

6%

Exploration

Production Development

Pre‐salt37%

Transfer of Rights

Other areas48%

15%

E&P investments in Brazil: US$117.7 bn

TOTAL E&P INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL– 2011‐15 BUSINESS PLAN

Note: Pre‐salt includes Basins in Santos, Campos and Espírito Santo

Page 18: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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1.855 1.971 2.004

321 317 334 435

618

1.120

111 132 144141

180

246

2.100 

99 9693 96

125

142

2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

Oil Production‐ Brazil Natural Gas Production ‐ Brazil Oil Production ‐ International Natural Gas Production ‐ International

2,386 2,516

6,418

3,993

1,148543 Pre-Salt’0

00 boe

/day

2,772

845

Transfer of Rights13

+10 Post‐Salt Projects

+8 Pre‐Salt Projects

+1 Transfer of Rights

+ 35 Systems

Added Capacity

Oil: 2,300,000 bpd

2,575

Note: Does not include Non‐Consolidated International Production.

• Pre‐salt and Transfer of Rights will represent 69% of the additional capacity up to 2020;

• Pre‐Salt participation in the total production will enhance from the current 2% to 18% in 2015 and 40.5% in 2020.

3,070

4,910

PRODUCTIONWith broad access to new reserves, Petrobras can more than double its production in the next decade

Page 19: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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112 211 230 21475

400 292 189

749

1,601

42

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

1980 1990 2000 2010

Deep water

Shallow water

Onshore

187

2,004

1,271

653

10% 10% p.yp.y over  the last 30 yearsover  the last 30 years

Thou

sThou

s . . 

bpd

bpd

FPSO Cidade de  Santos

• 123 offshore units (45 floating and 78 fixed)

• 25 new units installed over the last 5 years

FPSO Cidade de  Angra dos ReisP‐56

P‐57

PRODUCTIONLong history of implementing offshore projects in Brazil

Page 20: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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3.070

2.1002.004

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thous.bpd

Lula PilotFPSO BW Cidade Angra dos Reis100.000 bpd

Cachalote andBaleia Franca FPSO Capixaba100.000 bpd

Marlim Sulmodule 3SS P‐56

100.000 bpd

JubarteFPSO P‐57180.000 bpd

Baleia AzulFPSO Cidade  de 

Anchieta100.000 bpd

(FPSO Espadarte reallocation)

Roncador module 4  FPSO P‐62180.000 bpd

Roncador module 3SS P‐55

180.000 bpd

Papa‐Terra TLWP P‐61 &FPSO P‐63150.000 bpd

Guará (North) FPSO 

150.000 bpd

Parque das Baleias

FPSO P‐58180.000 bpd

Tiro/SidonFPSO Cidade   de 

Itajaí80.000 bpd

Tiro PilotSS‐11

Atlantic Zephir30.000 bpd

MexilhãoJaquetaHG

EWT GuaráFPSO Dynamic

Producer30.000 bpd

ESP/MarimbáFPSO 

40.000 bpd

UruguáFPSO Cidade de 

Santos35.000 bpd

AruanãFPSO 

100.000 bpd

Guará Pilot 2FPSO Cidade  de 

São Paulo120.000 bpd

Lula NEFPSO Cidade de 

Paraty120.000 bpd

MarombaFPSO 

100.000 bpdSiriJaqueta e FPSO

50.000 bpd

Cernambi SouthFPSO

150.000 bpd

FPSO P‐67 Replicant 2150.000 bpdBMS‐9 our11

4 EWTsPre‐salt

FPSO P‐66Replicant 1150.000 bpdBMS‐9 or 11

Baleia AzulFPSO

60.000 bpd

Juruá NG

TambaúFPSO Cidade de Santos

NG

EWTs

EWTs Lula NE  e CernambiFPSO BW Cidade São Vicente

30.000 bpd

EWT Carioca FPSO Dynamic

Producer30.000 bpd

Franco 1 Transfer ofRightsFPSO 

150.000 bpd

3 EWTsPre‐salt

5 EWTsPre‐salt

5 EWTsPre‐salt

LARGE PROJECTS SUSTAIN THE INCREASE IN PRODUCTIONPre‐Salt and Transfer of Rights Projects

NG Projects 

Post‐Salt Projects

Page 21: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

21

0

4

8

12

16

20

P‐43 P‐48 P‐50 P‐52 P‐54 P‐53 P‐51 FPSOCAPIXABA

P‐57

Para atingir 50% capacidadePara atingir 75% capacidade

Months

2004 20062005 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010

Water Depth 2006 2008 2010

Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11

1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21

Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15

From 2007 to 2012 Petrobras will double its fleet of contracted drilling rigs, focusing on modern, recently built drilling rigswith capacity to operate in the Pre‐salt layer.

2011 2012 2013

+2 +1 +1

+10 +13 +1

2010

Forecast

NEW PROJECTSHigher number of drilling rigs will enable a faster ramp‐up of the new platforms

P‐56 will have 1 producing well and 1 injection well to be connected in 3Q11.

To reach 50% capacity

To reach 75% capacity

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22

34

35 5

41

4

1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

TLD ‐ Pré‐Sal e Cessão Onerosa TLD ‐ Outras áreas

Constant production

Restriction due to flaring limitation

Good behavior of the reservoirs

Good lateral communication

No issues regarding flow guarantee

Results obtained during EWTs

POSITIVE RESULTS OBTAINED DURING EWTs

Average drilling time of the wells completed during the year

(versus combined average time for 2006/7)

5 wells

4 wells

5 wells

6 wells

EWT Schedule

EWT – Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights

EWT – Other areas

Page 23: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSISCapital investments required by Plansal 45% lower, increasing NPV

Inve

stm

ent

Net

Pre

sent

Val

ue

Bid Areas

Bid Areas

Page 24: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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Key Assumptions:

• 150,000 bpd FPSOs

• Production of 500,000 bpd

• Ramp‐up in line with industry

• Historic decline rate

• Oil value = 95% Brent

• Does not include exploration and acquisition costs

• The graph  illustrates  the cost‐benefit  ratio of a  standard production development  in Brazil, using assumptions based on previous experiences

Case 3 – US$12/boe Capex / US$5/boe Opex without Special Interest (such as Transfer of Rights)

Case 1 – US$12/boe Capex / US$5/boe Opex

Case 2 – US$15/boe Capex / US$7/boe Opex

(expected scenario)

PROFITABILITYNew E&P projects generate attractive returns

Page 25: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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E&P PROFITABILITY IN BRAZIL

• E&P profitability strongly correlated to oil price

• Production in Brazil: 86% oil and 14% gas

• Higher net profit per barrel yields better return than its peers

• Stable regulatory environment allows for capturing the benefits of the increase in oil prices

Peers: BP, CVX, XOM,RDS, TOT

E&P ROCE

E&P Net Income ($/boe)Brent vs. Net income per Barrel

Oil production profitability in Brazil fully exposed to oil prices

PetrobrasPeers

PetrobrasPeers

Brent (Average in dollars)

Net

inco

me

per B

arre

l (U

S$)

Source: PFC Energy

Page 26: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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VARREDURA PROJECT: TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EXPLORATORY OPTIMIZATION

• Additional recoverable volume from discoveries:

• Post‐salt:  Marimbá,  Marlim Sul and  Pampo: 1,105 MM boe;

• Pre‐salt:  Barracuda,  Caratinga,  Marlim,  MarlimLeste,  Albacora and  Albacora Leste:  1,130  MM boe*. 

•Well productivity exceeds 20,000 bpd

67 exploratory wells will be drilled between 2011 and 2015 in production areas in 

Campos basin

Varredura Project

*No volumes have been announced regarding the Marlim Leste and Albacora Leste discoveries. 

Descobertas do Pr é-sal na Bacia de Campos2009/10 (VARREDURA)

Discoveries in Pre‐saltCampos Basin 2009/10 (Varredura)

Page 27: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

27

NEW TECHNOLOGIES Applications enhance recovery, slow decline rates and increase production 

VASPS

Technological Solution Technology Status

Subsea Pumping Systems

Subsea BCS In Operation

Subsea Pumping Model In Operation (Jubarte e Golfinho)

Skid BCS  Prototype in TLD ESP 23 (Oct/11)

Subsea Muliphase Pump BMSHA Prototype in Barracuda (Dec/11)

Gas/Liquid  Subsea Separation

VASPS Prototype Tested in P‐08 (2011)

Oil/Water Subsea Separation

SSAO Prototype in Marlim (End of 2011)

Raw water injection SRWI Prototype in Albacora (End of 2011)

Subsea electric transmission and 

distributionUnder qualification Prototype scheduled to 2015

Underwater Electric Pump in Skid 

Raw water injection Oil/Water Subsea Separation

Page 28: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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NEW VESSELS AND EQUIPMENTSResources required for production growth

39 rigs contracted, 28 more to be built by 2020:39 rigs contracted, 28 more to be built by 2020:o Until 2013: 16 rigs contracted before 2008 and 2 rigs relocated from international operations¹; +15 new 

rigs contracted in 2008, +1 in 2009, +1 in 2010 and +4 in 2011 through international bidding;o 2015‐2020: From the 28 rigs to be built  in Brazil, EAS won the bid for the first package  ‐ construction 

and chartering of seven drilling rigs to be built in Brazil. A new bid was open for the remaining 21.

Critical Resources Current Situation(Dec/10)

Delivery Plan (to be contracted)Accumulated Value

By 2013 By 2015 By 2020

Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above  2.000 m 15 39 37 (1) 65 (2)

Supply and Special Vessel 287 423 479 568

Production Platforms SS e FPSO 44 54 61 94

Others (Jacket and TLWP) 78 80 81 83

Production 

Platform  (FPSO)Drilling RigsSupply Vessel

(1) Two rigs reallocated from international operations, expire in 2015, so it is not considered in the 2020 accumulated value

(2) The demand for long‐term  will be adjusted as new demand assessments  are made.

Page 29: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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Development

Duration: 4 yearsExtendable for 2 more years

Variable, according to Development Plan

Total Duration: 40 years, extendable for 5 more years according to specific criteria

TRANSFER OF RIGHTS Development of the areas fully under way

Declaration of Commerciality

Exploration Production

Area 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Franco

lara surroundings

Florim

NE of Tupi

South of Guará

South of Tupi

Resources already available for:

• 7 Exploratory wells• 1 contingent Exploratory well• 1 EWT• 2 contingent EWTs• 3D Seismic 

First 4 

production 

units 

undergoing 

contracting 

(*)

New technologies and definition of resource allocation

* Conversion at the Inhaúma shipyard

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REVISION OF THE TRANSFER OF RIGHTS

• The revision will be completed after the declaration of commerciality (4 years period)

• Revision based on technical reports and on assumptions provided in the contract

• Assumptions for price revision:

– Change in oil price

– Production curve

– Cost assumptions update

– Discount rate and appraisal base date maintenance

Higher Lower • Petrobras pays the difference to the Federal

Government• (or) Petrobras requests a reduction in

volumes corresponding to the difference

• Federal Government pays the difference to Petrobras

Final value

Page 31: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

31

Suppliers investing in Brazil

Flexible pipes ‐Wellstream and Prysmian

Pumping Units – Weatherford

Valves – Cameron

Turbine generators – Rolls‐Royce

2 FPSOs fully built in Brazil

6 Platforms under construction in Brazil 

Construction of 8 hulls for replicant FPSOs (65% Local Content)

Contracting of 7 drilling rigs at competitive costs and 21 being leased (55%‐65% Local Content)

BENEFITS FROM THE LOCAL INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT

Source: Sinaval

Platforms built in Brazil with competitive costs

30 x

Navy Industry Direct Labor force

Page 32: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

32

Refining, Transportation & Marketing (RTM), and Petrochemicals

US$74.4 billion

Page 33: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

33

Expand the downstream, ensuring the margins from the Brazilian market supply with the required quality, and developing markets for the oil surplus

2011‐15 Business Plan Highlights:

• Downstream capacity will increase by 395 thousand bpd between 2011‐15 and 1,065 thousand bpd between 2016‐2020;

• Completion of the process to modernize the downstream segment;

• Logistics integrated with E&P activities to ensure the commercialization of the oil surplus;

• Increase petrochemicals and biopolymers production.

STRATEGYExpansion, quality, logistics and commercialization

Page 34: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

34

US$70.6 billion

• Refining Capacity Expansion: Abreu e Lima Refinery, Premium I and II, and Comperj;

• Quality and Conversion: Modernization, conversion, and hydrodesulfurization;

• Operating improvement: maintenance and optimization, HSEE, and R&D;

• Fleet Expansion

• Logistics for Oil: oil supply for refineries and infrastructure for oil exports.

1.1%4.5%

26.4%

0.8%15.2%

Logistics for  Oil

International

Fleet Expansion

Quality and Conversion

Refining Capacity Expansion

Operating improvement

1.0%

23.9%

13.9%

4.9%

Petrochemical Investments amount to US$3.8 billion

NEW REFINERIES, FUEL QUALITY AND MODERNIZATION SUM UP TO 74% OF RTM INVESTMENTS

Page 35: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

35

DOWNSTREAM EXPANSIONReduced dependence on imports of oil products

* Source: IEA – 2010 World Energy Statistics** Without considering Capacity Expansion

2006 2007 2008 2011E2009 2010

Brazil (2020)**Indonesia

MexicoSpainJapanChina

GermanyFrance

Brazil (2010)USA

Net Imports as a percentage of total demand (%)*

’000 bpdIncrease in import levels will lead to higher

logistical costs...... and to high levels of exposure to

international supply

Page 36: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

36

Oil and NGL Production – Brazil Total crude oil processed – Brazil Oil Products Market (2 scenarios)

• Highlights: Abreu e Lima, 1st phase of COMPERJ, and 1st phase of Premium I.

PRODUCTION, DOWNSTREAM AND DEMAND IN BRAZILConstruction of new refineries to meet local market demand

1,81

1

2,20

5 3,21

7

1,97

1

2,00

4

2,10

0 3,07

0

4,91

0

1,79

2

1,79

8

1,93

3

2,14

7

2,20

80

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2009  2010 2011 2015 2020

,000 bpd

Abreu e LimaRefinery (RNE)230,000 bpd

(2012)

COMPERJ(1st phase)165,000 bpd

(2013)

PREMIUM I(1st phase)300,000 bpd

(2016)

PREMIUM I(2nd phase)300,000 bpd

(2019)

PREMIUM II300,000 bpd

(2017)

COMPERJ(2nd phase)165,000 bpd

(2018)

2,536

3,0952,643

3,327

Page 37: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

37

Capacity: 230,000 bpd

Stage: Implementation

Startup: 2012

REPRE I

Comperj

Abreu e Lima Refinery

Capacity: 330,000 bpd

Stage: Implementation

Startups: 2013 and 2018

Capacity: 300,000 bpd

Stage: Preliminary License issued

Startup: 2017

REPRE II

RNE

Comperj

Capacity: 600,000 bpd

Stage: Earthworks

Startup: 2016 and 2019

Premium I Refinery Premium II Refinery

60’s50’s 70’s 80’s 90’s 00’s

RLAM

RECA

PRP

BC 

REMAN

REDUC 

REGAP 

REFA

P

REPLAN

REPA

R

REVA

P

RNEST

COMPERJ

10’s

32 years

Launch of Petrobras’ Refineries

• Learning curve from the two new refineries (Abreu e Lima Refinery and Comperj) to reduce Premium refineries CAPEX

INVESTMENTS IN DOWNSTREAM EXPANSION

PREM

IUM I

PREM

IUM II

Page 38: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

38

Market in 2015Market in 2010

REFINING CAPACITY NEEDS OUTSIDE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST REGIONS

• Increase in demand in the Central‐West, Northeast, and North explains the concentration of investments in the Northeast;

• Tax incentives combined with environmental restrictions also contribute to the concentration in the region.

552

Deficit

-416

Demand

968

Capacity

1.652

Deficit

-23

Demand

1.675

Capacity

299

-464

763

82

1.466

1.384

DeficitDemandCapacity

SuperavitDemandCapacity

Page 39: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

39

21%

4%7%

10%

Light

36%

6%

9%

21%

Medium Distillated

43%

5%

38%

Others

Fuel Oil

Special

Naphtha

LPG

Gasoline

Jet Fuel

Diesel

Intermediary

4%

15%

19%

4%

11%

15%

65%

15%

50%

Productivity of existing refineries – 2020

LightMedium Distillated Others

Productivity of new refineries – 2020

• Increase in global demand for medium‐distillated products tends to lead to an increase in price versus the gasoline price.

PRODUCTSNew refineries will produce higher value‐added oil products

Page 40: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

40

• Design competition based on the lowest final cost

• Selection of UOP ‐ international company with extensive refining experience

• Single design integrating all the refinery on‐site and off‐site

• Designer involved from conceptual design to technical assistance in the start up

• Scale economies (RPRE: 300kbpd modules)

• Maximum standardization of equipments specification

Age (years)

Scale (’000 bpd)

RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION AT PREMIUM REFINERIES 

Current downstream cost(US$ / bbl in 2010)

Lower refining costs due to design quality and scale

Economies of scale and new implementation strategies to reduce Capex, including:

Page 41: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

41

US$ 16 billion

1.01.0

3.2

4.9

5.9

7.0

4.5

2.3

1.1

0.20.1

15141312111098765

-15%p.y.

DECREASING INVESTMENTS IN QUALITY

US$16 billion in 2011‐15 Reduction in sulfur level

Avg. Sulfur Level – Diesel (ppm)

Page 42: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

42

MARKET IN BRAZILFree market follows international prices in the long term

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002

US$/bbl2002-2011

ARP BrazilARP USA

Page 43: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

43

Natural Gas, Electric Energy and Fertilizers

US$13.2 billion

Page 44: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

44

INVESTMENTS IN GAS, ENERGY, AND GAS‐CHEMICALS 2011‐2015

2011‐15 InvestmentsUS$13.2 billion

• Investment  cycle  in  the  expansion  of  the transportation  network  to  be  completed  in 2011;

• New natural gas delivery spots, negotiation with distributors to increase sales and diversification of contractual arrangements ;

• Consolidated  investment  in  thermal  power generation;

• Operating  in  the  LNG  chain  and  serving  the thermal power market;

• Increased  portion  of  investments  allocated  to the  conversion  of  natural  gas  into  urea, ammonia, methanol,  and  other  fertilizers,  and gas‐chemicals. 

3,4

5,9

0,30,8 26%

21%

45%

2%6%

3,4

2,85,9

0,30,8

3,4

2,8

Network Electric EnergyGas-chemicals plants(Nitrogenized)

International

LNG

Page 45: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

45

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

UFN III (Sep/14)

Regás Bahia

(Jan/14)

New NG TPPs

Urucu-Manaus

Gasbel II

Gasduc III

Gastau

Gasene

Gaspal II

Gasan II

Pilar-Ipojuca

Atalaia-Itaporanga

Cacimbas-Vitória

Catu-Pilar

Japeri-Reduc

Gascav

Gascar

LNG Pecém

LNG BGUA

TPP Bicomb. ConversionTermoaçu

Cubatão

Sulfato de Amônio (May/13)

ARLA 32 (out/11)

Ecomps + Delivery Spots + Network Maintainance

UFN IV (Jun/17)

Acquisition TPPs

UPGN Cabiúnas –Route 2 Pre-Salt

(Aug/14)

Adaptation of the Gas Pipelines Network (US$ 3.34 bi)New TPPs run on Natural Gas (US$ 1.82 bi)LNG regasification (US$ 0.74 bi)Chemical Transformation of NG (US$ 5.85 bi)

TPP Commitments (US$ 0.94 bi)Renewable Energy: Wind Power and Biomass (US$ 0.02 bi)Natural Gas Liquefaction (US$ 0.10 bi)

% d

o In

vest

imen

to T

otal

UFN V (Sep/15)

1st Investment CycleCOMPLETED

2nd Investment Cycle2nd Investment Cycle

20112011‐‐2015 BP2015 BP

2ND INVESTMENT CYCLE: MONETIZATION OF THE PRE‐SALT RESERVES

45

Page 46: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

46

813813

291

2,936

2,271

1,109

13

3

6

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

2011 2015 2020

Thou

s.to

n /y

ear

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ammonia Urea Natural Gas Consumption

Installed Generation CapacityFertilizer Production

420420

581

6.6946.0988.894

3430

44

-1.000

1.000

3.000

5.000

7.000

9.000

11.000

2011 2015 2020

MW

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

UTE Renewable Natural Gas Consumption

Million cm

/d

7,114

9,475

6,518

Million cm

/day

NEW UNITS BENEFITING FROM HIGHER NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

UFN III (Sep/2014) 

UFN IV (Jun/2017)

UFN V (Sep/2015) 

• Brazil currently imports 53% of its total ammonia consumption and will be self‐sufficient in 2015;

• We currently import 53% of the total urea consumed. This amount will reduce to 28% in 2015, 16% in  2017 and 22% in 2020.

Page 47: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

47

Total

Demand

Thermal Power Plants Demand : Petrobras + Third parties

NATURAL GAS SUPPLY & DEMAND BALANCE (MILLION M3/D) – SCENARIO A

Firm

Flexible30

24

30

24

30

24

202020152011

Total 

Supply173149106 20015196

Downstream

UPGN

Fertilizers61

32

1639

2517

Petrobras’ Demand: Downstream + Fertilizers

Non‐thermal power

NG Distributors Demand

202020152011

2011 2015 2020

2011 2015 2020

2011 2015 2020

Guanabara BayPecém

Bahia41

20

1441

20

1421

14

Bolivian Supply

Domestic NG Supply

Supply via LNG Regasification Terminals

Inflexible

Flexible40

13

3725

2011 2015 2020

To be contracted (5.5 GW

76(15.1 GW)

59(10.7 GW)38

(6.7 GW)

DEMANDPCS 9.400 kcal/m³

4969

936

9

9 Northern Region

Other Regions

55

78

102

SUPPLY

Page 48: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

48

Biofuels

Distribution

International

US$18.2 billion

Page 49: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

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INVESTMENTS IN BIOFUELS

2011‐2015 INVESTMENTS US$ 4.1 billion

Ethanol

Ethanol Logistics

Biodiesel

R&D

273%

1.5

Pbio + Partners

5.6

16%   

735

855

Pbio + Partners

Market Share Pbio+Partners:• 2011: 28%• 2015: 26%

Biodiesel supply (’000 m³)

2011 2015

Ethanol supply (million m³)

2011 2015

Market‐share Pbio+Partners:• 2011: 5.3%• 2015: 12%

47%

7%

32%

14%

1.9

1.3

0.60.3

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50

INVESTMENTS IN DISTRIBUTION

Share in the automotive and global markets

2011‐2015 BPUS$3.1 billion

 21%

 18% 

13%

42%

Mercado Automotivo

Mercado Consumidor

Operações e Logística

Liquigás

Internacional 6%

33.731.330.930.6

38.6 38.8 38.5 40.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2015

Automotive Market (%) Global Market (%)

Gas Station

Wholesales Consumers

Operations & Logistics

International

Page 51: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

51

INVESTMENTS: INTERNATIONAL AREA

Key Projects:

• Cascade / Chinook

• Saint‐Malo 

• Tiber

Key Projects:

BoliviaSan Alberto / San Antonio Serving the Brazilian market

PeruIntegrated Gas Project – Lots 57 and 58 Oil Production – Lot X

ArgentinaMaintenance of Existing Assets

Key Projects: • NigériaAkpoAgbamiEgina

• AngolaBlock 26

US$11 billion

Activities in 27 countries in the E&P, RTCP, Distribution, and G&E segments

Africa’s West Coast

Gulf of Mexico

Latin America

Corporate

Distribution

G&E

E&P

RTCP

87%

1%

3% 2%7%

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Final Considerations

Page 53: Webcast Business Plan 2011-2015 Presentation

53

HUMAN RESOURCES

Position in Jan/11

61.070 63.673 65.971 68.968 74.422

24.34725.528 26.722

27.98528.608

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Projeção de Efetivo do Sistema Petrobras

Controladora Outras Empresas do Sistema Petrobras

85.41789.201

92.69396.953

103.030

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Efetivo Produção

55%

E&P workforce

Production (thousd. bbl/d)

Estima

te

• BP 2011‐2015 requires additional personnel

• 51% of the workforce has been working at the Company for less than 10 years, while 46% has been at the Company for more than 20 years

• E&P Segment will lead workforce increase, in line with production growth 

ParentCompany

Other companies in Petrobras Group

Workforce Production

Petrobras’ Labor Force Projection

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54

Other operatorsOther operators

International Research CentersInternational Research Centers

SuppliersSuppliers

Brazilian Universities and Research CentersBrazilian Universities Brazilian Universities and Research Centersand Research Centers

• Four R&D centers of Petrobras’ suppliers under construction;• In order to meet local content requirements, several companies will develop technological centers in the country. 

Expenditures (investments and funding): US$1.3 billion / year

PETROBRAS’ TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT INTEGRATED WITH SUPPLIERS, RESEARCH CENTERS AND OTHER OIL COMPANIES

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