webinar 22/23 junefiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a...

63
WEBINAR 22/23 JUNE ROB SPANJAARD : CIO, CO-PM SIMON SYLVESTER : HEAD OF RESEARCH, CO-PM BRIAN DU PLESSIS : HEAD OF SALES 1

Upload: others

Post on 30-Jun-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEROB SPANJAARD : CIO, CO-PMSIMON SYLVESTER : HEAD OF RESEARCH, CO-PMBRIAN DU PLESSIS : HEAD OF SALES

1

Page 2: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

2

QUARTILE RANKING

FUND 1 YEAR (Ann.)

3 YEAR (Ann.)

5 YEAR (Ann.)

10 YEAR (Ann.)

15 YEAR (Ann.)

STABLE 1 1 1VALUE TREND 1 1 1 1 1MANAGED PLUS 1 1 1EQUITY 1 1 1GLOBAL FLEXIBLE FEEDER

1

SOURCE: MORNINGSTAR

Page 3: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

INVESTMENT PLATFORMS

3

Page 4: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

Source: JTC Group/Rezco

CLIENT GROWTH AND SPREAD

Page 5: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

5

BLEND FUNDS WITH A LOW CORRELATION

Page 6: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

6

RISK-ADJUSTED RETURNS

Page 7: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

7

REZCO FUND PERFORMANCE

Page 8: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

THE GREAT BALANCING ACT

RISK RETURN

Page 9: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

LONG TERM: MANAGING RISK

9

Page 10: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

REZCO VALUE TREND HISTORICAL ASSET ALLOCATION

10

Page 11: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

REZCO VALUE TREND

11

Page 12: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

REZCO MANAGED PLUS

12

Page 13: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

REZCO STABLE FUND

13

Page 14: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

REZCO GLOBAL FLEXIBLE FEEDER

14

Page 15: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

REZCO EQUITY FUND

15

Page 16: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

16

THE ROAD MAP

Page 17: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

WHAT WE SAW IN MAY

17

BEAR MARKETS WITH RECESSIONS: USA

Page 18: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

18

BEAR MARKETS WITH RECESSIONS: RSA

Page 19: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

19

BEAR MARKET RALLY OR

NEW BULL MARKET

Page 20: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

20

USA: FORWARD PEIT’S HARD FOR A BULL TO START FROM HERE

Page 21: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

21

IS SMART MONEY OR DUMB MONEY DRIVING THE RALLY?

Page 22: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

22

Page 23: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

23

DAVEY DAY TRADER A.K.A. DAVE PORTNOY

Page 24: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

24

DAVIE DAY TRADER’S 2 RULES OF INVESTING:

RULE 1: STOCKS ALWAYS GO UP

RULE 2: READ RULE #1

Page 25: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

25

Page 26: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

26

USA MIDCAPS: HARD FOR A BULL TO START FROM HERE

Page 27: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

27

THE WORST RECESSION SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION

Page 28: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

GDP scenarios World– indexed vs GFC

28Rezco Research , IMF

Page 29: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

29

RECESSION IMPACTS CORPORATE PROFITS, WHICH IMPACT EQUITY

PRICES

Page 30: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

GDP AND CORPORATE PROFIT: USA

30

Page 31: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

CORPORATE PROFIT AND EQUITY PRICES: USA

31

Page 32: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

32

ECONOMIES ARE INTERLINKED NOT THEMATIC

Page 33: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

33

IT’S NOT ONLY TECH THAT IS EXPENSIVE

Page 34: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

34

IN SUMMARY: PAYING THE SAME FOR A LOT LESS

Page 35: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

35

RSA: NOWHERE TO HIDE LOCALLY

Page 36: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

36

RSA INCSHARES ARE NOT CHEAP (e.g. BANKS)

Page 37: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

CORPORATE PROFIT AND EQUITY PRICES: RSA

37

Page 38: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

38

GLOBAL ECONOMY:RECOVERY

ORDEAD CAT BOUNCE?

Page 39: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

39

THINKING ABOUT THE DATA- TWO CASE STUDIES

Page 40: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

40

USA: RETAIL SALES

Page 41: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

41

Page 42: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

42

USA RETAIL SALES: NOT ALL SALES ARE EQUAL

Page 43: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

43

USA RETAIL: THE DETAIL IS IMPORTANT

Page 44: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

44

Page 45: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

45

US EMPLOYMENT

Page 46: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

46

DON’T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE STRONG US JOBS NUMBER LAST MONTH

Page 47: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

47

IT’S IMPORTANT TO ZOOM OUT

Page 48: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

48

SOPHISTICATED MODELS WON’T WORK, BUT WHAT ARE OTHER OPTIONS?

Page 49: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

ATLANTA FED: GDPNow Estimate

49

Page 50: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

RISKS ON THE HORIZON

50

Page 51: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

MARKET EXPECTS QE TO FIX EVERYTHING

51

Page 52: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

EUROPE & JAPANQ.E. CAN’T FIX SHARE PRICES

52

Page 53: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

THE FED MAY BE LENDING BUT BANKS AREN’T

53

Page 54: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

SCENARIOS FOR COVID-19

54CIDRAP Report 30 APRIL 2020

Page 55: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

VACCINE TIMING:TOO SOON TO GET EXCITED

55

Page 56: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

56

USA: SHARE BUYBACKS MIA

Page 57: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

57

TRUMPS RE-ELECTION STRATEGY

Page 58: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

58

WHAT DOES A BIDEN VICTORY MEAN FOR MARKETS?

Page 59: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

59

BIDEN PLANNED ON INCREASING TAX BEFORE COVID BAILOUTS

Page 60: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

60

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO DE-RISK

Page 61: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO DE-RISK PORTFOLIOS

61

Page 62: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

DISCLAIMER

This presentation does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation, and is only intended for the use by the original recipient/addressee. If further distributed by the recipient, the recipient will be responsible to ensure that such distribution does not breach any local investment legislation or regulation.

Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. The information is confidential and intended solely for the use of Rezco Asset Management’s clients and prospective clients, and other specific addressee’s. It is not to be reproduced or distributed to any other person except to the client's professional advisers.

All data, models and tests are sourced from Rezco Asset Management unless otherwise stated thereon. While information obtained is from sources we believe to be reliable, Rezco Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness thereof. Same as may be provided under law, Rezco Asset Management does not accept any liability for inaccurate or incomplete information contained, or for the correctness of any opinions expressed.

Prospective investors should inform themselves and take appropriate advice as to any applicable legal requirements and any applicable taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant to the subscription, purchase, holding, exchange, redemption or disposal of any investments.

While the portfolio manager will attempt to minimise risk, the value of investments in discretionary accounts and the income derived from those investments may fluctuate and it is possible that the investor could incur losses, including the loss of principal invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative as to future performance. An investor whose reference currency differs from that in which the fund or segregated account is denominated may be subject to exchange rate movements, which may cause fluctuations in the value of their investments. In addition, investments involving exposure to a currency other than that in which the segregated account or fund is denominated may also cause values to fluctuate.

62

Page 63: WEBINAR 22/23 JUNEfiles.rezco.co.za › webinars › rezco_asset_management... · it’s hard for a bull to start from here. 21 is smart money or dumb money driving the rally? 22

THANK YOU

WWW.REZCO.CO.ZA

63