website slide deck - nd pipeline authority · 2014-04-01 · website slide deck north dakota...
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Website Slide Deck North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Justin J. Kringstad April 1, 2014
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Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Crude Oil
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Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Crude Oil
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ND Drilling Stats
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Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Crude Oil
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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1
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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210,000 BOPD
68,000 BOPD
160,000 BOPD
145,000 BOPD
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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Oil Loading Rail Facilities
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January 2014
Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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Crude Oil Gathering
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Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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1
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2012 Estimates – Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Crude Oil Gathering
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2013 Estimates Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Oil Gathering
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2013 Estimates Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Oil Gathering
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41% 59% 20%
80%
31% 69%
48% 52%
54% 46%
42% 58%
9%
91%
41% 59%
22%
78%
100%
100%
36% 64%
100%
14%
86%
3%
97%
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~250 Additional Truckloads Per Day
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Year-Over-Year Oil Gathering Changes*
*Best available estimate. Some data incomplete or missing
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Estimated YOY Daily Truckload Change
Sep 2012 to Sep 2013 Assumes - 225 bbls/truck
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Estimated YOY Oil Gathering Change
Sep 2012 to Sep 2013
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Crude Oil
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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US Refining Infrastructure
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$106.38
$95.99
$84.53 $78.98
$100.76
EIA Dec 2013 Refinery Acquisition Cost
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Major Pipelines and Refining Centers
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$106.38
$95.99
$84.53
$78.98
$100.76
EIA Dec 2013 Refinery Acquisition Cost
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Major Rail Lines and Refineries
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$106.38
$95.99
$84.53 $78.98
$100.76
EIA Dec 2013 Refinery Acquisition Cost
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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Simple Terms Blue – Lack of pipelines Orange – Challenges on existing infrastructure
GREEN – % of gas captured and sold Blue – % flared from zero sales wells Orange – % flared from wells with at least one mcf sold.
January 2014 Data – Non-Confidential Wells Statewide
Solving the Flaring Challenge
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*Hess Tioga Gas Plant shut-in for 140 MMCFD expansion starting in November
*
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Capturing the 18% Faster Well Connections
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*Weather Related & Gas
Plant Shutdown
*
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ND Gas Gathering Statistics
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Weather Related & Gas
Plant Shutdown
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North Dakota Natural Gas Production Forecast
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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ND Gas Transmission and Processing
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Raw Natural Gas
(1500+ BTU) Processing Plant
Consumer Quality Dry Natural Gas
Methane
NGL’S (8-12 gpm)
Y-Grade or Fractionated
Ethane
41.64%
Propane
28.33%
Butane
16.53%
Natural Gasoline
13.51%
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*Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study
Rich Natural Gas
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ND Gas Plant NGL Production
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North Dakota NGL Potential
Assumptions
• No Flaring
• 8 Gal/MCF
• All liquids extracted
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Case 1: ND NGL Potential*
*Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study
41.64%
28.33%
6.98% 9.55%
13.51%
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Moving Future NGL Volumes
Transportation Options
• Trucking Regionally
• Rail Transportation
• Vantage Pipeline (Ethane)
• ONEOK Bakken Pipeline (Y-Grade)
• Alliance Pipeline (Rich Gas)
• New Pipeline Infrastructure??
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NGL Pipeline Transportation
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Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227
Fax: (701)328-2820 E-mail: [email protected]
Websites:
www.pipeline.nd.gov www.northdakotapipelines.com
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Contact Information
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