Wedging the gap: the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in ambitious emission reductions7th International Symposium on Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases (NCGG7)

5 November 2014

Dr. Niklas Höhne

n.hoehne@newclimate.org, Niklas.Hoehne@wur.nl

Content

Scale of action needed to stabilise the climate

Possible contributions by international cooperative initiatives

All greenhouse gases

Particular role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Conclusions

Illustrative 2°C scenario

0

10

20

30

40

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2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Glo

bal

GH

G e

mis

sio

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in G

tCO

2e

CO2 from fossil fuels and industry

CO2 from forestry

Non-CO2

Source: own figure, based on marker scenario RCP 2.6 of the IPCC, from RCP scenario database http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=download

Timing of phase out of all GHG

Source: http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Bonn_policy_update_jun2014-final_revised.pdf

Climate Act ion Tracker Update 4 June 2014

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Emissions levels compat ible wit h 2°C and 1.5°C

The Climate Act ion Tracker has conducted a new analysis of the mit igat ion scenarios assessed by IPCC AR5 WGIII, to evaluate the global emissions pathways compat ible with holding warming below 2°C and returning to below 1.5°C warming by 2100. The emissions pathways were selected on the basis that :

· These emission scenarios fall within historical limits up to 2010. This excludes some studies whose emissions diverge signif icant ly below historic emissions before 2010.

· They limit warming to below 2°C with a likely (66%) or high (greater than 85%) probability. The lat ter pathways also return to, or below, 1.5oC by 2100.

· We dif ferent iated between “overall least -cost” mit igat ion scenarios, which reach long-term targets by reducing emissions at any t ime over the 21st century to minimise costs, and those that involved a “deliberate” delay in mit igat ion act ion. We focussed on the former.

'Figure 1:

Timing of phase out of fossil CO2

Source: http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Bonn_policy_update_jun2014-final_revised.pdf

Climate Act ion Tracker Update 4 June 2014

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6

These emissions reduct ions would ensure a high chance (>85%) of limit ing warming below 2°C, signif icant ly bet ter than the “likely” 2°C pathway described above.

Comparing Figure 2 below with Figure 1 illustrates that for CO2 emissions, the picture looks quite dif ferent than is the case for all greenhouse gases.

A high probability 2°C pathway requires a full decarbonisat ion of the energy sector by as early as 2045, when CO2 emissions from industry and energy use reach zero in the low emission scenarios.

For such low emission scenarios, IPCC WGIII notes that global CO2 emissions from the energy supply sector are projected to decline over the coming decades and are characterised by reduct ions of 90% or more below

2010 levels between 2040 and 2070. Emissions in many of these scenarios are projected to decline to below zero thereafter (IPCC AR5, WGIII, SPM).

The IPCC AR5 warns: “Delays in mit igat ion through 2030 or beyond could substant ially increase mit igat ion costs in the decades that follow and the second-half of the century” (IPCC AR5, WGIII, SPM).

Delayed act ion also implies increased use of technologies that can provide ‘negat ive emissions,’ primarily bio-energy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Mit igat ion scenarios without BECCS are found in the lower half of the emission ranges around 2020-2030 and at the upper end by the end of the 21st century.

'Figure 2:

Sectoral reductions Approved Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report

Figure SPM.14 [FIGURE SUBJECT TO FINAL COPYEDIT AND QUALITY CONTROL]

Subject to copy editing and lay out SPM-40 Total pages: 40

Source: IPCC AR5 synthesis report

Impact of non-CO2 emission reductions on temperature increase

Source: Hare, Schaeffer, Rocha, Rogelj, Höhne, Blok, van der Leun, Harrison 2012: Closing the 2020 emissions gap: Issues, options and strategies

Soon in:Joeri Rogelj, MichielSchaeffer, MalteMeinshausen, Drew Shindell, William Hare, Zbigniew Klimont, Guus J. M. Velders, Markus Amann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2014) "Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation", PNAS online November 5, 2014.

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Content

Scale of action needed to stabilise the climate

Possible contributions by international cooperative initiatives

All GHG

Particular role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Conclusions

8

The emissions gap

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Source:UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2013

Wedging the gap: 21 initiatives to narrow the emissions gap

Source: Blok, Höhne, van der Leun, Harrison 2012: Bridging the emissions gap, Nature Climate Change

Wedging the gap: 21 initiatives to narrow the emissions gap

Short-lived climate forcers

Companies’ emissions

Other actors

Energy efficiency Special sectors

Energy supply

Top-1000 companies emission reduction

Supply chain emission reduction

Green financial institutions

Voluntary offsets companies

Voluntary offsets consumers

Major citiesemission reduction

Sub-national government action

Low-carbon building heating and cooling

Phasing out incandescent lamps

Driving towards efficient electric appliances

Efficient and low-carbon cars and trucks

Reduce aviation and maritime emissions

Reduce emissions of fluorinated gases

Reduce deforestation

Reduce emissions from agriculture

Reduce impact of short-lived climate forcers

Scale up efficient cook stove use

Boost solar photovoltaic energy

Boost wind energy

Energy access through low emission options

Reform fossil fuel subsidies

Wedging the gap: 21 initiatives to narrow the emissions gap

Source: Blok, Höhne, van der Leun, Harrison 2012: Bridging the emissions gap, Nature Climate Change

Coverage of initiatives

Source: www.climateinitiativesdatabase.org

Starting years of initiatives

Source: www.climateinitiativesdatabase.org

Content

Scale of action needed to stabilise the climate

Possible contributions by international cooperative initiatives

All GHG

Particular role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Conclusions

Announcements of new alliances from the UN Secretary General’s summary:The Global Alliance for Climate-Smart Agriculture

16 countries and 37 organisationsEnable 500 million farmers worldwide to practice climate-smart agriculture by 2030

Oil and gas industryLeaders along with national Governments and civil society organisationsCommitment to identify and reduce methane emissions by 2020A second industry-led initiative was launched by leading producers of petroleum who committed to address methane as well as other key climate challenges, followed by regular reporting on ongoing efforts.

Refrigeration and food storageIndustry leaders and governmentsCommitted to reduce HFCs in refrigeration and food storage

Freight supply chainsReduce methane and black carbon

Municipal solid wasteReduce methane from municipal solid waste.

Climate and Clean Air Coalition To Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC)

Founded in 2012, now over 70 members / partners, including over 30 countries

New action statements of September The Oil & Gas Methane Partnership (methane) A Global Green Freight Action Plan (black carbon) Phasing Down Climate Potent Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Reducing SLCP Emissions in Cities from Municipal Solid Waste (methane and black carbon)

Benefits: national and local health improvements and air quality, thus supporting development, and improved agriculture and ecosystems

Measures and their co-benefits in agriculture

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Table 4-6 Summary table showing the results from the assessment of co-benefits and trade-offs for

the four measures discussed in this chapter. Indicators are described in Box 3, scores are explained in

Table 4-1. Colours are used for visualization and do not include an extra layer of information.

Indicator

CO2 -Peatland

restoration

CH4 - Rice

Water Mgt.

CO2 - Zero

tillage

N2O - Cropland

Nutrient Mgt.

GHG-related indicators

Potential by 2020 + + ± +

Permanence ± + - +

Mitigative capacity or transformative effects / +/0 +/0 +/0

Other environmental indicators

Water quality + / + +

Soil quality +/0 0 + +

Air quality + / / +

Biodiversity, wildlife habitat + / +/0 +

Energy conservation +/0 +/0 + +/0

Water conservation + + + /

Economic and social effects

Food security ± +/0 +/0 +/0

Aesthetic / amenity value + / / /

Costs (magnitude / type / distribution) - ± +/0 +/0

Job creation ± / / /

Equity effects +/0 +/0 / /

regions will probably be confronted with high compensation costs. The other three measures

discussed in this chapter generally had positive effects on yields and farm income through efficiency

improvements, but these benefits were not robust and varied per location and over time. Success

stories show that where the benefits of these measures are demonstrated to the farmers these

measures are already being adopted.

However, even where a measure has clear benefits to the farmer, this does not automatically lead to

its widespread uptake. Three categories of barriers were identified from the discussion of barriers

that prevent the implementation of agricultural mitigation measures (see Table 4-7).

The first category are farmer-related barriers. High opportunity costs related to peatland restorations

have already been mentioned above. Upfront investments are a barrier to the implementation of zero

tillage as it requires purchase of specialized machines. For all measures that represented a change

from conventional to new farming practices, lack of knowledge or skills, or beliefs held by the farmers

are important barriers. As the positive yield effects of many practices described in this chapter were

Source: Lena Schulte-Uebbing, 2013: Wedging the Emissions Gap in AgriculturePotential of a possible bottom-up initiative to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, Mater Thesis WUR

Content

Scale of action needed to stabilise the climate

Possible contributions by international cooperative initiatives

All GHG

Particular role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Conclusions

Conclusions

Reductions of non-CO2 emissions are necessary in addition to CO2 reductions to stabilize at 2°C:

CO2: net zero or negative by middle (of the second half) of the centuryCH4: initial rapid reductions, but still half by 2100 – fast impact on reduced temperature increaseN2O: slightly below current levels – limited effect on reduced temperature increaseF-gases: at current levels – impact on temperature depends on assumed referenceOther air pollutants: close to zero by 2100 – impact on temperature depends on other measures

International cooperative initiatives can narrow the emissions gap to 2°C pathways

When working with the front runnersSet ambitious and transformative goals (their impact is under-researched)

Non-CO2 GHG emission reductions initiatives can make a significant contributionIf framed as opportunity Alongside of reductions of CO2 emissions

Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@newclimate.org

Backup

Example: Refrigerants Naturally!

Launched 2004 by large global beverage and food companies

“To promote a shift in the point-of-sale cooling technology towards natural refrigerants with a low-or non-Global Warming Potential and a zero Ozone Depletion Potential, that is safe, reliable and cost effective”

“To provide a platform and a critical mass in communicating with the refrigeration technology supply chain, with other users, governments and civil society.“

Benefits: efficiency, corporate social responsibility

The UNEP Emissions Gap report 2013 showed that thematic areas differ in their potential and activity level

Thematic area Subtopic Wedging the

gap

UNFCCC

technical paper

IEA energy /

climate map

Number of

initiatives

Energy efficiency Buildings heating and cooling 0.6 2 0.5 25

Ban of incandescent lamps 0.5 0.5

Electric appliances 0.6

Industrial motor systems 0.4

Cars and trucks emission reductions 0.7 0.2

Renewable energy Boost solar photovoltaic energy 1.4 1 – 2.5 17

Boost wind energy 1.2

Access energy through low emission options 0.4

Limiting inefficient coal use in electricity generation 0.7 0

Methane and other

climate pollutants

Methane from fossil fuel production * 1.1 0.6 7

Other methane and other climate pollutants

Efficient cook stoves *

Fluorinated greenhouse gases 0.3 0.5 3

Fossil fuel subsidy reform 0.9 1.5 – 2 0.4 1

International transport 0.2 0.3 – 0.5 4

Agriculture 0.8 1.3 – 4.2 1

Reduce deforestation 1.8 1.1 – 4.3 15

Waste 0.8 1

Companies Top-1000 companies emission reduction 0.7 4

Supply chain emission reductions 0.2 1

Green financial institutions 0.4 1

Voluntary offset companies 2.0 0

Voluntary offsets consumers 1.6 0

Major cities initiative 0.7 3

Sub-national governments 0.6 2

Total 9.7** Not added 3.1

24/04/2014 Niklas Höhne & Nicolette Bartlett23

Introduction

Initiatives on waste and agriculture

Sustainable waste management:C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40)Caring for ClimateG8Global Methane InitiativeGlobal Reporting InitiativeInternational Partnership on Mitigation and MRVLow Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS) Global PartnershipMajor Economies ForumR20Regions of Climate Action - R20The Climate RegistryWBCSD Urban Infrastructure InitiativeWWF Climate Savers

Sustainable and efficient agriculture:AgSTARAsia Forest Partnership (AFP)BioCarbon FundC40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40)Caring for ClimateClimate and Clean Air Coalition To Reduce Short-Lived Climate PollutantsClimate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance (Climate, Community, and Biodiversity Standard)Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF)Consumer goods forumG8Global Bioenergy PartnershipGlobal Methane InitiativeGlobal Partnership on Forest and Landscape Restoration (GPFLR)Global Reporting InitiativeGlobal Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse GasesInternational Partnership on Mitigation and MRVJoint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI)Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS) Global PartnershipMajor Economies ForumMitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture (MICCA) ProgrammePlan VivoPrince of Wales International Sustainability Unit (PCFISU)Rainforest AllianceRegions of Climate Action - R20The Climate RegistryUN-REDD ProgrammeWBCSD Urban Infrastructure InitiativeWWF Climate Savers