wednesday 2/4 hw: pretest thursday 2/5 hw #11.2 monday 2… packet... · likelihood &...
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Wednesday 2/4 Lesson 11.1 Readiness Lesson
HW: PreTest
Thursday 2/5 Lesson11.2 Likelihood & Probability
HW #11.2
Friday 2/6 Lesson 11.3 Sample Space
HW # 11.3
Monday 2/9 Lesson 11.4 Relative Frequency &
Experimental Probability
HW #11.4
Tuesday 2/10 Lesson 11.5 Theoretical Probability
HW #11.5
Wednesday 2/11 Lesson 11.6 Probability Models
HW # 11.6
Thursday 2/12 Lesson 11.7 Review
HW #11.7
Friday 2/13 Unit 11 TEST
Do Now Page 1. Compare .
Change both into percents, then compare
again.
2. Probability of an event: If the probability
that it will rain tomorrow is 40%, what is
the chance that it will NOT rain?
Is it likely or unlikely that it will rain tomorrow?
3. Sample Space The spinner below is
used to determine who wins a game.
Player A wins if the spinner lands
on a prime number. Player B wins if
the spinner lands on a composite
number.
Is the game fair? Explain.
4. Relative frequency: A number cube is
rolled and a coin is flipped. Write the
sample space for all possible outcomes.
5. Theoretical Probability Based on the data below:
Color of
Marble
Red Blue
# of times
picked
24 52
a) P(red)
b) P(blue)
6. If you roll a number cube what is the
theoretical probability of getting a multiple
of 2?
If you roll it 36 times, how many 4’s should you
expect to get?
7. What is the difference between experimental and theoretical probability?
The probability of an event measures
Likely
Certain
The probability of an
event is a number from
_____ to______
Words to describe:
Impossible
Not likely
As likely as not
Probability
of an event
It can be represented by
List the sample space
Flipping a coin and choosing a
marble from a bag with 1 red, 1 blue,
and 1 green.
Sample
Space
R B
G
Using your data:
P(4)
P(less than 5)
P(odd number)
It is also known as
experimental
probability.
Roll the dice on the smart board 10
times. Chart your results.
Relative
Frequency
If you are talking about results
from an experiment, that’s
experimental probability!
Theoretical means, in theory
(without doing an experiment)
P(event) =
If I roll a dice, what is the theoretical
probability of rolling a 6?
Theoretical
Probability
Formula
Lesson 11.1 Readiness Lesson
Intro: What are some basketball statistics that are important to keep track of?
How do you compare one basketball player’s skills to another? What types of numbers and
operations might you use?
Example 1: The table shows the number of field goals attempted and the field goals made for three different
players on the Mustang basketball team this season. What is each player’s ratio of field goals
made to field goals attempted?
Example 2: Which player made the greatest percentage of their field goal attempts? Round to
the nearest percent.
Example 3: Maria made of her field goal attempts last season. If Maria attempts 160 field
goals this season and makes them at the rate she did last season, about how many field goals will
she make?
Post Activity:
QUICK REPORT Use your results from this activity to complete the report below
about the player on the team with the greatest field goal percentage. In Column 4,
write her predicted number of field goals made for this season.
Player With Best Field
Goal Percentage
Field Goal
Ratio
Field Goal
Percentage
Number of Field
Goals This Season
REFLECT Explain how you used each skill in this activity.
_________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
b. converting between fractions, decimals, and percents
_________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
c. multiplying a fraction and a whole number
_________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
Lesson 11.2 Likelihood & Probability
Impossible Unlikely Equally
Likely
As Likely as
Not
Likely Certain
P(cherry) read as “the Probability of getting cherry”
Complete the chart below:
Likelihood Fraction Decimal Percent
P(lemon)
P(green apple)
P(grape and lemon)
P(cherry)
Predictions: Based on a probability, you can make predictions on future events
Example: If I have a box of 350 candies
a) About how many should you expect to be cherry?
b) How many are expected to be lemon?
c) How many are expected to be grape?
Activity: Racing Game Activity
Discussion: What makes a game fair?
Goals: Design a fair way to play the racing game using the number of students (players) and
tools you are given. Each tool is used independently. Play each game using your rules, and show
data to prove it is fair.
Tool 1:____________________________
Rules:
Tool 2:_______________________________
Rules:
Tool3:________________________________
Rules:
Lesson 11.3 Sample Space
Action: In probability
situations, an action is a
process with an uncertain
result.
Outcome: An outcome is a
possible result of an action.
Sample Space: The set of all
possible outcomes is the
sample space for the action.
Example: The band direction chooses one trumpet player at random to lead the band in the
holiday parade. List all outcomes in the sample space.
Try it!
Action: One spin of the spinner.
What is the sample space for this action? How many outcomes are in the sample space?
An event is a single outcome or group of outcomes from a sample space.
Example: The band director will choose one trumpet player. Which trumpet players are in each
event?
Event: Choose a boy Event: Choose a person with a first name
that starts with a J.
Try it! Action: One spin of the spinner
Event: The spinner stops on a composite number
Outcomes:
Describe the event who’s outcomes are 4, 3, 2, 1, and 0
Example:
Try it! List the following in the order: action, sample space, event
Win the game. Play the game. Win, lose, tie
Lesson 11.4 Relative Frequency & Experimental Probability
Results from our experiment:
Find:
P(hitting the circle) P(not hitting the circle)
Model Problem:
Spin a spinner 40 times to collect data
Red Orange Green Blue
Tallies
Totals
Class total
Find
P(red) P(green or blue) P(yellow)
Practice Questions: A cashier in a grocery store asks each customer what type of bag to use. The table shows how
many customers requested each type of bag during the cashier’s three-hour shift. Find the
experimental probability that a customer asks for plastic bags. Write the probability as a fraction
and as a percent. Round to the nearest percent.
Hits Misses
Lesson 11.5 Theoretical Probability
Is the game fair? Explain _________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Example 1: Here is a view of all six faces of a number cube.
Find theoretical P(zero)
Are the theoretical and experimental probabilities always equal? Explain why or why not.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Example 2: Use the spinner to determine the theoretical probability of each situation.
You Try!: Identify each situation as experimental or theoretical
A soccer player took 12 shots on goal and
scored once. P(scores) =
You rolled a standard number cube 50 times
and get eight 3’s P(3) =
You choose one tulip at random from the face
P(red) =
Practice Problems:
Theoretical Probability vs. Experimental Probability
Complete your assigned tasks in pairs.
TASK 1: Directions:
1) Set up a chart listing your
sample space.
2) Roll your number cube 30
times and record your
results.
TASK 2: Directions:
1) Set up a chart listing your
sample space.
2) Flip your coin 30 times and
record your results.
Theoretical Probability vs. Experimental Probability
Complete your assigned tasks in pairs.
TASK 3: Directions:
1) Using the spinner on the
board, create 5 equal
sections.
2) Set up a chart listing your
sample space.
3) Spin the spinner 20 times
and record the results.
TASK 4: Directions:
1) Set up a chart listing
your sample space of
choosing one paperclip.
2) Choose a paperclip and
return it back to the bag
20 times.
3) Record your results.
Lesson 11.6 Probability Models
A probability model consists of
an action, its sample space, and a
list of events with their
probabilities.
Example 1:
Which list of probabilities does not complete a probability model for this action?
How can you check to see if it is complete?
What could be added to make it complete?
Practice Problems:
1.
2.
A probability model based on using theoretical probably of equality likely
outcomes is a uniform probability model.
Before setting up a probability model, ask yourself:
Can I use theoretical probability?
OR
Do I need to collect data and use an experimental probability?
3. If I want to choose between Jonathan, Tyler or Jake to be first in line, what experiment could I design that would be fair for everyone?
Lesson 11.7 Review
Mini Quiz:
1. Based on the spinner to the right. Write your answer as a percent, decimal, and fraction
P(odd number) ______% ________ ________
P(less than 6) ______% ________ ________
Which one above is as likely as not?
How would you describe the other?
2. An experiment was done with a spinner. See the results below.
a) Based on the results from the table, write the experimental probability for picking blue as
a percent.
b) What is the theoretical probability of picking a blue?
c) If the spinner was spun 120 times, how many times would you expect to be blue? How
does this compare to your results from part a?
3. Sort the following: as Event, Sample Space, or Action
History, English, Math
Picking a class
Choosing Math
Extra Practice
Question 1:
Lessons 11.1 & 11.2
Question 2:
Lessons 11.4 & 11.5
Question 3:
Lesson 11.3
Look back in your class
work packet:
How would you describe an
event? There are 5 words or
phrases.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Using the numbers
above, which number
would describe:
a) P(rain) = 50% ____
b) The sun will rise
tomorrow. ____
c) A meteor will fall on
your house _____
d) The sun will set in
the east _____
e) A student wearing
long pants tomorrow
______
Look back in your class
work packet:
I rolled a 6-sided die 24
times and here are the
results.
Side # of times
1 5
2 4
3 3
4 1
5 7
6 4
Based on the data above,
what is the experimental
probability of:
P(2)
P(odd number)
P(greater than 3)
What is the theoretical
probability of getting a 4?
How does this compare to
the data?
Base your answers on the
spinner below:
Identify the action, the
sample space and the event.
a) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
b) Spin the spinner
once
c) Spin an odd #
How many outcomes
are there?
Review for Test Unit 11 Study Guide Probability
Question Correct Answer Round 1 Round 2 1. What is
probability?
1) The chance of something
happening. It is
represented in fractions,
percents or decimals.
2 1 0 2 1 0
2. Which of these can
be used to
represent
probability?
Choose from:
Fraction, decimal,
Percent
2) All three can be used.
50% = ½ = .5
2 1 0 2 1 0
3. True or False
All probabilities can be
represented between 0
and 1.
3) True 2 1 0 2 1 0
4. The probability it
will rain tomorrow is
0.65. What is the
probability it will NOT
rain tomorrow,
expressed as a percent,
decimal and fraction.
4) 1- 0.65 = 0.35
0.35, 35%,
2 1 0 2 1 0
5.
What is P(odd
number)?
5) or 50% 2 1 0 2 1 0
6. What is the
difference between
theoretical and
experimental
probability?
6) Theoretical probability is
what should happen based on
the information. Experimental
probability is based on the
data after an experiment.
2 1 0 2 1 0