wednesday,march6,2019 recovering from the hanoi setback€¦ · thought long and hard before ad ......
TRANSCRIPT
#70929
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DELHI THE HINDU
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6, 20198EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
CMYK
A ND-NDE
EDITORIAL
Mohammed Ayoob
India’s most recent encounterwith the Organisation of IslamicCooperation (OIC) bears an un
canny resemblance to India’sfailed attempt to gain entry to theinaugural session of the samegrouping held in Rabat, Morocco,in 1969 and for much the same reasons. In the earlier episode NewDelhi lobbied fi��ercely to wangle aninvitation to the meeting. However, on Pakistan’s insistence the invitation that had been extendedwas withdrawn and India was denied membership of the OIC despite its insistence that as the country with the third largest Muslimpopulation in the world it deserved a seat at the “Islamic”table.
Contrary to secularism I remember writing an oped at thetime that New Delhi’s bid for membership of the OIC was both morally wrong and politically futile. As acountry whose foundational philosophy was based on secularism, itwas inappropriate for India to joinan organisation whose defi��ningcriterion was shared religiousidentity. In India’s case this ap
plied to all organisations that usedreligious criteria to defi��ne themselves, whether they be Muslim,Hindu, Christian or Buddhist.
Further, since India’s membership of the OIC would be perceivedas a powerful refutation of the basis on which Pakistan was created,it was bound to object stridently toIndia’s induction into the organisation. Pakistan had great leveragewith the conservative Arab monarchies for ideological reasons andbecause of the fact that its militarywas willing to provide the Arabmonarchies with welltrained soldiers for hire that the latter needed to protect their insecure regimes.
Pakistan at that time also hadclose relations with Iran and Turkey with whom it shared membership of CENTO (Central Treaty Organisation, formerly the BaghdadPact) and an antiSoviet and proU.S. orientation. Consequently, Islamabad had much greater cloutwithin OIC circles than did NewDelhi and was in a position tothwart Indian attempts to attainOIC membership. As it turned out,my prediction came true. NewDelhi’s attempt to gain OIC membership led to unnecessary humiliation that could have been avoided had South Block acted withgreater forethought.
The situation today is both diff��erent and similar to 1969, and thiswas clearly refl��ected in India’s latest experience with the OIC. In an
apparent gesture of goodwill, theorganisers of the OIC Foreign Ministers meeting in Abu Dhabi,which in eff��ect meant the UnitedArab Emirates (UAE) and SaudiArabia invited External Aff��airs Minister Sushma Swaraj as the guestof honour and keynote speaker(picture) despite Pakistan’s objections. This was both a refl��ection ofIndia’s growing economic and political stature internationally andthe desire on the part of the Gulfmonarchies to cultivate New Delhiin order to take advantage of theopportunities provided by India’sexpanding economy and its technologically skilled workforce.
A new twistHowever, this is where the diff��erence between 1969 and 2019 endsand the similarities kick in. Theimpact of Ms. Swaraj’s speech, especially her denunciation of terrorism that was clearly aimed at Pakistan, was more than neutralisedby a number of events that followed her address. First, the Abu
Dhabi declaration issued at theend of the meeting did not containeven a simple expression of thanksto the Indian External Aff��airs Minister for addressing the plenarysession of the assembly. Furthermore, it failed to mention the factthat Ms. Swaraj was the guest ofhonour at the meeting and delivered the keynote speech. Thisomission was very glaring in viewof the fact that the document mentioned all sorts of unimportant issues, such as the UAE hosting the2020 Expo in Dubai.
Second, to add insult to injury,the document’s only reference tothe IndiaPakistan standoff�� statedthat the OIC welcomes the “positive initiative undertaken by thePrime Minister of Pakistan ImranKhan to hand over the Indian pilotas a gesture of goodwill to deescalate tensions in the region”. ThePakistani “initiative” was given avery positive twist by decontextualising it totally. There was not evenan implicit reference to the primary reason that led to the most recent IndiaPakistan confl��agration,namely, Pakistani support for terrorism as witnessed most dramatically by the attack in Pulwama thatkilled 40 Central Reserve PoliceForce personnel.
Third, what was even more galling from the Indian perspectivewas the resolution on Kashmirthat accompanied the Abu Dhabideclaration. This included thephrase “Indian terrorism in Kash
mir” while condemning what itcalled “atrocities and humanrights violations” in the State. It isclear from this sequence of eventsand the wording of the documentsthat emanated from the OIC meeting that despite the invitation toMs. Swaraj, the leopard has notchanged its spots and that Pakistani infl��uence within the organisation has diminished only marginally.
Once again, the Ministry of External Aff��airs, instead of prematurely celebrating the invitation toMs. Swaraj to address the AbuDhabi conference, should havethought long and hard before advising the Minister to accept the invitation. It was particularly incumbent upon the Ministry of ExternalAff��airs to do so in light of the resolutions passed by the OIC over theyears regarding Kashmir and IndiaPakistan issues which had always favoured the Pakistani pointof view. It appears from hindsightthat the External Aff��airs Minister’sparticipation in the OIC ForeignMinisters’ conclave, like the Indianattempt to gain admission into theRabat conference in 1969, wasnothing short of an avoidablefi��asco.
Mohammed Ayoob is University
Distinguished Professor Emeritus of
International Relations, Michigan State
University and Non-Resident Senior
Fellow, Center for Global Policy,
Washington DC
Fifty years apart, the story of two OIC fi��ascos Reaching out to the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation is morally wrong and politically futile �� ��
PTI
more letters online:
www.hindu.com/opinion/letters/
The much awaited Hanoi summit (February 2728) between U.S. President Donald
Trump and North Korean leaderKim Jongun ended abruptly. Aworking lunch and the signing ceremony were cancelled, leading tospeculation that the talks had collapsed. This may be a prematureconclusion. Mr. Trump, 72, hasshown, time and again, that whilehe may be a novice at nuclear negotiations, he is a master of ‘TheArt of the Deal’ and a reality TVstar. For him, summitry is aboutpolitical timing. Mr Kim, thoughless than half Mr. Trump’s ageseems to have a natural knack forit too. The Trump–Kim bromanceis like a three act opera and aftertwo acts (Singapore in June 2018and Hanoi), this is the Intermission, with a fi��nal act yet to unfold.
Suspense about SingaporeRemember the suspense beforeAct I, which took place despite allodds. There was initial optimismwhen U.S. Secretary of State MikePompeo made a surprise visit lastMay to Pyongyang, returning successfully with three U.S. detainees.Days later, National Security Adviser John Bolton bunged a spannerin the works by proposing the “Libyan model” for North Korea’s denuclearisation. North Korea reacted strongly with Vice Minister ofForeign Aff��airs Kim Kyegwan indicating that it would be forced to reconsider the summit if the U.S. insisted on driving it into a corner.Mr. Trump backtracked, releasedthe letter he had sent to Mr. Kim,expressing regret about the delayand adding that he was still hopeful. He also publicly distanced
himself from Mr. Bolton’s remarksby pointing out that what he wanted with North Korea was ‘a deal’.South Korean President Moon Jaein stepped in, visiting Washingtonin May and, on his return, meetingMr. Kim at Panmunjom to restorecalm. By the end of the month, thevicechairman of the central committee, Gen. Kim Yongchol, wasin the U.S. meeting Mr. Pompeoand carrying a personal letterfrom Mr. Kim to Mr. Trump. Andthe June summit was restored!
While the summit resulted in ajoint statement holding out tantalising prospects of establishing anew period of U.S.North Korea relations, building a lasting and robust peace on the Korean peninsula and Mr. Kim reaffi��rming his fi��rmcommitment to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, whatwas striking was the growing trustand respect between the two leaders. An unexpected personal chemistry had been established.
Setting the stage for HanoiFast forward to Hanoi, Act II. Expectations were set high. StephenBiegun, appointed Special Representative for North Korea last year,had hinted that forward movement on ending the ‘war’ was possible. The 195053 Korean War,which led to the division of the peninsula and claimed nearly threemillion lives, was paused with the1953 Armistice Agreement. ForNorth Korea, any move towardsformalising peace is a step towardsregime legitimacy. While a formalpeace treaty would require U.S.Senate ratifi��cation, political stepstowards normalisation would not.North Korea expected some acknowledgement of its continuingrestraint with regard to testing andunilateral moves hinting at closingdown some test sites.
Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Kimwere aware that diff��erences about‘denuclearisation’ persisted. ForNorth Korea, it means ‘denucleari
sation of the Korean peninsula’,North Korea dismantling its facilities and giving up its arsenal to gohand in hand with a permanentpeace that removes the U.S. military threat and normalisation. Forthe U.S., ‘denuclearisation’ is frontend loaded, implying complete,verifi��able and irreversible disarmament that requires North Koreato bring nuclear military activity toa halt, make a full declaration andsubject itself to international verifi��cation, before sanctions are lifted.
Mr. Trump had indicated thathe was happy about the continuedban on nuclear and missile testingand not in a hurry. However, thepitch was queered by intelligencereports surfacing that in additionto the principal nuclear facility(Yongbyon), North Korea had builtanother uranium enrichment facility at Kangson. It put a questionmark on Mr Kim’s commitment to‘denuclearisation’. Another reportindicated that though the Punggyeri test site was shut, continuedplutonium production and uranium enrichment during the last 12months would have enabled NorthKorea to add up to seven devicesto its existing arsenal estimated at30 devices.
These disclosures diminishedthe value of North Korea’s off��er ofclosing Yongbyon, which housesreactors (one for plutonium production and the older one possibly
for tritium) in addition to an enrichment facility. Mr. Trump hadaccepted the idea of a road mapbut instead of working out the details, he prefers to rely on his senseof political timing to conclude asuccessful deal. Further, there wasa growing perception that he wasin too much of a hurry, whichmeant that any agreement wouldbe modest and likely be labelled abad deal by the nonproliferationhardliners. He cleverly chose ‘nodeal’ to a ‘bad deal’ — and the curtain came down on Act II.
It seems the U.S. demandedmore than Yongbyon, which wasmore than North was willing togive. Mr. Trump said, “It was allabout sanctions. They wanted thesanctions lifted in its entirety andwe couldn’t do that. Sometimes,you have to walk and this was oneof those times.” His regret was evident when he added, “When wewalked away, it was a very friendlywalk.” North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yongho claimed they had“demanded only partial sanctionsrelief in exchange for dismantlingYongbyon”. Whatever the reasons,reactions on both sides have beenrestrained. A return to the rhetoricof ‘fi��re and fury’ therefore seemsunlikely.
Preparing for Act IIIRight now, the mantra in Washington is that no deal is better than abad deal. Yet, realisation will soondawn that the current situation only permits North Korea’s stockpileto grow as there is zero likelihoodfor Chinese and Russian supportfor further tightening of sanctions.There are no plans for a third summit though Mr. Trump said that he“remained optimistic about a positive future outcome”, adding,“there is a warmth that we haveand I hope that stays.” Mr. Pompeoacknowledged “real progress” andsaid the “U.S. is ready to get backto the table to continue the talks”.
It is likely that during this Inter
mission, South Korea will step upits diplomacy with both Washington and Pyongyang. Mr. Moon hasplayed a lowkey but critical role innurturing the process. Domestically, he has staked a lot, havinghad three meetings with Mr. Kimlast year, including one in Pyongyang. Since last May, both sideshave refrained from hostile activities and propaganda, the demilitarised zone (DMZ), is peaceful,landmines have been removedand some maritime confi��dencebuilding measures put in place.With economic troubles at homeand hardliners in Seoul accusinghim of being overoptimistic andnaive, he is vulnerable. The SouthKorean Constitution only providesone term for the President and Mr.Moon is confi��dent about the legacy he wants to leave behind.
More has been achieved duringthe last year since the collapse ofthe Agreed Framework in 2002when U.S. President George W.Bush included North Korea in his“axis of evil” speech. Betweenthen and 2017, North Korea carried out six nuclear tests, including one believed to be a fusion device, and over a 100 missile tests,demonstrating intercontinentalballistic missile capability. Mr.Moon’s goal is to register suffi��cientprogress on both ‘normalisation’and the ‘denuclearisation’ tracksso that the process becomes irreversible. Such a breakthroughneeds a topled process.
And so an Act III is likely. Thehardliners will eventually recognise virtue in a stepbystep process as long as it is irreversible. Anew stage will have to be found,Bangkok, even Hong Kong if Chinacooperates. But the cast is willing.After all, it is the blossoming of abeautiful relationship.
Rakesh Sood is a former diplomat and
currently Distinguished Fellow at the
Observer Reseach Foundation. E-mail:
Recovering from the Hanoi setbackWhatever the reasons for the collapse of the U.S.North Korea talks, both sides have kept alive hopes for their revival
Rakesh Sood
AP
Veracity of countsThe Indian Air Force hasmade it clear that itachieved its mission inPakistan, which has againbeen reiterated by the IAFchief, Air Chief Marshal B.S.Dhanoa (Page 1, “We hittarget in Balakot, didn’tcount casualties: IAFchief”, March 5), Even ifone presumes that noterrorist was killed, theBalakot mission sends aclear warning to Pakistan:failure to take actionagainst terrorists will resultin India hunting themdown. India hasdemonstrated its capabilityto do this. This is more importantthan the evidence ofcasualties which thegovernment’s critics,including the Oppositionparties, seem so keen onwanting to know (“Breach
of security or a lie:Yechury”, March 5 and“Ahluwalia video creates afurore”, March 3). P. Mangalachandran,
West Ponniam, Kannur, Kerala
■ It is strange that after theair strikes, a section in Indiahas begun demanding proofof the attack with the exactnumber of casualties ofterror groups. One mustsupport the acts of ourdefence forces who ensurethat we are safe in everycorner of India. This demandfor proof is embarrassing,indirectly giving the enemiesof India an advantage. Ishant Chuttani,
Bahadurgarh, Haryana
A.P. data breach The case of alleged databreach in Andhra Pradesh,which investigators arecalling possibly “one of the
biggest cases in the worldafter Cambridge Analytica”,is shocking (“Police ask ITfi��rm chief to surrender”,March 5). That the breachmay also be linked to apolitical party’s app in orderto aid it in the election iseven more unsettling. Thegovernment’s recentdirective, that allows 10agencies to monitor citizens’digital footprints, along withreports of “leaks” from theAadhaar database willdisincentivise people fromusing digital channels,especially governmentinitiatives, to collect data.This case is yet anotherinstance of why people inIndia need to be wary oftrusting the government withtheir data. This trust defi��citcould also seriously impactIndia’s digital revolution.Delaying the promulgation ofa data protection law is the
root cause of such breachesas there are no robustmechanisms to hold theperpetrators accountable.Y. Meena,
Hyderabad
Blow against inclusionThe Prime Minister’s remarkmade during his recentvideoconference withstudents, when one of themwas explaining how herproject could help dyslexicchildren, was insensitive(“PM uses dyslexia to mockRahul, draws fl��ak”, March 5).One wonders whether ourleader is even aware of howthose diagnosed withdyslexia have achievedgreatness in their lives,examples being AlexanderGraham Bell, Lewis Carroll,Leonardo da Vinci, JohnIrving, Pablo Picasso and LeeKuan Yew, to name a few. Hehas mocked the diff��erently
mindset that one oftencomes across in India andwhere many have no ideaabout diff��erent forms ofdisability. Anjali Kapoor,
Mumbai
Infl��ight orderIt is a disappointment howthose managing the largestdemocracy in the worldappear to be dictating everylittle thing to their citizens.Slogans do not aid inimparting patriotism. Ratherthan being forced to dosomething unproductive, themanagers of Air India woulddo well to focus on betterthings and make the lossmaking airline profi��table(“Air India crew will nowchant ‘Jai Hind’,” March 5). Monica Sharma,
New Delhi
abled, marking a new low inour political discourse.When the Rights of Personswith Disabilities Act talksabout nondiscriminationand respect for persons withdisabilities, disability rightsactivists are well within theirrights to demand anunconditional apology. Bidyut Kumar Chatterjee,
Faridabad, Haryana
■ As the mother of a dyslexicchild — he has otherdisabilities too — I am painedby the remark. When parentsof special children like metry hard to ensure that theseyoungsters have a betterfuture against the many odds— life is a struggle every day— I fi��nd it deeply insensitiveand disappointing on thepart of the Prime Minister tohave made such a crassremark. It is also a refl��ectionof the general and regressive
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to [email protected] must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.
Algerians have been protesting against their ailing
82yearold President, Abdelaziz Boutefl��ika, who
is seeking a fi��fth term in elections next month.
On the last day to fi��le nominations, it was announced
that the veteran would cut short his rule if he is reelect
ed and initiate constitutional reforms. But such vague
assurances have had little impact on the protesters in
the hydrocarbonrich nation who are becoming in
creasingly frustrated with the lack of education and em
ployment opportunities. Mr. Boutefl��ika, credited with
restoring stability in Algeria after a bloody civil war in
the 1990s between Islamist insurgents and the military,
has remained a fi��gurehead in recent years. Though he
has held the post of President since 1999, ever since he
suff��ered a stroke in 2013 he has hardly been seen in pu
blic. That, however, did not stop him from contesting
the 2014 elections, which he won with a thumping ma
jority, despite being out of action on the campaign trail.
But the removal of topranking military and intelligence
offi��cials in subsequent years sparked speculation about
who was really in charge. The government’s modus
vivendi in the years following the civil war was to clamp
down on dissent, and hand out generous welfare bene
fi��ts. Given the turbulence of the civil war years, the in
itial stability worked well in a country that had grown
wary of change. Persisting in that approach enabled the
ruling inner coterie to wield real power on behalf of the
President. The status quo was allowed to persist as the
opposition parties failed to rise above their divisions.
Algiers even evaded the antiestablishment fervour that
had swept several northern African countries during
the Arab Spring. Now, Algerians are demonstrating a re
solve to move on from being seen as dependents on the
state, to assert their rights as citizens.
Mr. Boutefl��ika’s latest reelection bid is being seen as
a cynical manoeuvre by his inner circle. The voices of
opposition have grown louder, as depleting oil reve
nues render the government’s welfare programmes less
sustainable. Moreover, the ruling National Liberation
Front’s contemptuous remarks against the clamour for
change have incensed the public. Unlike in the past, the
security forces have been more muted in their response
so far. Thus, the government could well be misreading
the situation if it believes the crisis will blow over. The
military could be making a mockery of the electoral
process by insisting on Mr. Boutefl��ika’s candidacy, in ef
fect undermining the highest elected offi��ce. It cannot
reduce a vibrant society to one that is democratic only
in name. Mr. Boutefl��ika, who is reported to be operat
ing from a hospital in Switzerland, should withdraw
from the fray. Algeria needs a new beginning.
Algeria for changePresident Boutefl��ika should
withdraw his reelection bid
The U.S. has ultimately acted on its threat to with
draw concessions granted to Indian imports un
der the Generalised System of Preferences. With
President Trump indicating as much in a letter to the
House of Representatives and Senate, Washington be
came the fi��rst to pull the trigger in a long trade standoff��
between the two countries. IndiaU.S. trade tensions es
calated last year when the U.S. took two consecutive de
cisions to increase import tariff��s on steel and alumini
um, and place India’s eligibility for GSP benefi��ts under
review. Shortly after, India said it would impose retalia
tory tariff��s on imports from the U.S. and even notifi��ed
the list of items on which these would apply. Mean
while, the U.S. stood fast on not exempting India from
its tariff�� hikes, with Mr. Trump complaining about In
dia’s high import tariff��s several times. The GSP review,
however, stretched on, with the two countries holding
frequent talks to address the concerns. India, for its
part, postponed the deadline for the imposition of the
retaliatory tariff��s six times; the latest deadline is on
April 1. Washington’s decision to review India’s GSP sta
tus stemmed from complaints from American medical
and dairy industries, both of which said India was not
providing “equitable and reasonable access to its mar
ket”. India has said it had tried hard to cater to most of
the U.S. demands and reach an understanding, but key
points of diff��erence, especially regarding India’s cultu
ral concerns to do with dairy products, could not be ac
commodated. Given this, and the fact that the U.S. has
been expressing discontent over India’s policies to do
with data localisation and FDI rules in ecommerce, the
decision to withdraw the GSP status should not come as
a surprise. The question is, how will New Delhi react?
Following the U.S. announcement, the Commerce
Ministry was quick to downplay the impact, saying the
GSP benefi��ts amounted to only $190 million while In
dia’s total exports under GSP to the U.S. stood at $5.6
billion. Indian offi��cials have stressed that talks on the is
sue would still continue during the 60day period after
which the GSP decision would come into eff��ect. The
other option the government can exercise is to impose
retaliatory tariff��s on U.S. goods. The government’s ef
forts to downplay the impact of the withdrawal of GSP
status and express readiness for more talks, however,
suggest it is not keen to take a decisively strong stance.
It bears emphasis that while the actual amounts at stake
are relatively small, with even India’s proposed tariff��s
on the U.S. amounting to just $900 million, the impact
on small industries in the country could nevertheless
be signifi��cant. Export bodies have already said that
such industries would lose their market share in the
U.S. without fi��scal support to help them maintain their
edge. In its absence, orders meant for India could go to
other GSP countries, signs of which are already evident.
Life without GSPIndia must not underestimate the impact
of the U.S. withdrawal of trade privileges
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THE HINDU DELHI
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6, 2019 9EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
CMYK
A ND-NDE
OPED
The U.S. astronauts today [March 5] completed their fi��rsttransfer from one space vehicle to another. This further vitalstep to an eventual American manned moon shot came however well behind the schedule set for the Apollo 9 spacemantrio now in their third day of orbit. Astronauts RussellSchweickart and James McDivitt edged one after anotherthrough the narrow passageway connecting the mother craftto the linked Lunar Module (LEM). Their transfer came afterthe two, with fellow astronaut David Scott, had battled to overcome problems with their navigational equipment. Snags hitboth the sextant and the telescope which was blocked at 75 degrees. It was deemed advisable to try to solve these problemsbefore the ship switch was started.
FIFTY YEARS AGO MARCH 6, 1969
Astronauts crawl into lunar module
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FROM ARCHIVES
Yesterday (March 4, Tuesday) at about 3 P.M. the big bazaarwas started by the news of a great looting at the rice marketnear the southern pier. Crowds gathered and several shopswere closed. The police rushed to the beach. The excitementhowever did not last long. It seems that some poor men wentto a rice merchant and demanded rice at the fair price of Rs. 13fi��xed by Government for Burma rice. Since the merchant refused, some hundreds of men who were evidently preparedfor it, rushed into the shop and threatened to loot. But soonthe police came and the looters disappeared. The police thenpassed through the bazaar in armed array for a demonstrationthat was hardly required. The rice merchants were asked toopen their shops and sell rice at Rs. 13 and lo, over 200 bagswere at once sold for ready cash! This fact and the fact that thelooters did not care to loot the thousands of bags lying practically unprotected on the open beach, showed that it was not acriminal attempt but was a threat to the merchants who hadraised the prices quite artifi��cially.
A HUNDRED YEARS AGO MARCH 6, 1919.
Rice Situation in Calicut.
Since December, Omar Hassan alBashir, Sudan’s embattled President,has stared down the deepening resistance against his 30year rule with brutal repression. Protests sparked by aprice hike have morphed into the ‘justfall that’s all’ movement, leaving manydead and several others detained, including opposition fi��gures and journal
ists. The dissolution of the federal and provincial governments, declaration of a yearlong national emergency, andinstallation of military offi��cials in key positions are desperate acts of a dictator who seized power in a 1989 coup.
Mr. Bashir was indicted in 2009 by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity inSudan’s Darfur region, the fi��rst instance of a sitting head ofgovernment charged by The Hague court. But the former army offi��cer’s subsequent election as President is but one apparent limitation of the Rome Statute. When Mr. Bashir fl��ewout of South Africa in 2015, despite the High Court’s instruction against leaving the country, it was one more occasionon which he was allowed smooth passage.
There is little sign of the autocrat loosening his grip in thewake of ongoing protests, except handing the ruling National Congress Party leadership to his deputy. Mr. Bashir hassince put on hold a controversial move to make him eligibleto run for a third term in 2020. The monthslong protestshave been characterised as the most formidable oppositionto Mr. Bashir and parallels have been drawn with the region’s 2011 Arab Spring. But the beleaguered President hascautioned the Opposition of civil war and prolonged instability in some of the countries in the region.
The rate of infl��ation in Sudan is among the highest in theworld. The country is among the bottom 10 countries on theCorruption Perceptions Index published by TransparencyInternational. The combination of a large working age population and widespread unemployment is not healthy forthe nation. Moreover, Sudan’s foreign currency reserveshave dwindled since oilrich South Sudan seceded in 2011. Aballooning trade defi��cit has compounded this situation, asthe economy was opened up during Sudan’s bid’s for WTOmembership. Meanwhile, the government’s eff��orts to earndebt relief have been hampered by lack of multilateral aidbecause Sudan, although out of the U.S. trade embargo, isstill on its terror sponsor roster. It is lobbying hard to be taken off�� that list and is wooing investments in the energy sector. But foreign fi��rms would be wary of falling foul of U.S.regulators, especially after investigations showed illegaltransactions some years ago with Sudan and Iran.
Reports suggest that the protesters, mostly comprisingmillennials, have been rising above religious and ethnic divisions of the kind that led to the 2011 partition of Sudan. Thatis a most encouraging sign in this strifetorn nation. It is timeMr. Bashir sets in motion a peaceful transition.
The writer is a Deputy Editor at The Hindu in Chennai
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SINGLE FILE
Promise amidst strifeIt is an encouraging sign thatSudanese protesters are rising aboveethnic and religious divisionsGarimella Subramaniam
AF
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Hamiltonian spiteBiology
This refers to spiteful behaviour that is exhibited by certain organisms towards other organisms of the same species that isaimed to improve the chances of survival of their own genes.It is believed that while organisms can be altruistic towardsother organisms that are closely related to them genetically,they can also exhibit spiteful behaviour towards others of thesame species that are genetically distant. Such behaviourhelps the organism reduce competition against its genes for limited resources. The idea is named after English evolutionarybiologist William D. Hamilton.
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CONCEPTUAL
A race only for solarpowered vehicles
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MORE ON THE WEB 3
Shyam Saran, senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,is a former Foreign Secretary. He served as the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy for Nuclear Aff��airs and Climate Changeand was also chairman of the National Security AdvisoryBoard. Against the backdrop of postPulwama IndiaPakistantensions, Mr. Saran explains the important components of India’s counterterrorism strategy, says no one has the right tohand out nationalism and patriotism certifi��cates, and callsthe coverage on television of terrorism “reprehensible”.Excerpts:
Considering where we are,
what do you think is the
future course of India
Pakistan relations?
■ I cannot see much happening until the elections in India are over. The nature ofthe political dispensationthat emerges from the elections will decide the direction of bilateral ties later.
Pakistan evokes very
strident public opinion in
India. Do you think that
might continue after the
elections also, forcing the
government’s hand?
■ Over the years, Indians aregetting more and more angrywith the continuing supportfor terrorism by Pakistan,and the stridency can be explained by this fact. Oneshould not be very surprisedthat there is a very negativeperception about Pakistan inIndia. Having said that, wehave to think of how we canfi��nd a way out of this. Youhave to have a strategy thatconvinces decision makers inIslamabad that continuingwith this policy will impose ahigh cost on Pakistan and itwill not be in its interests.That cannot be achieved byangry rhetoric.
India tried to do that with
the deep strikes in Pakistan.
That was a message to
Pakistan’s decision makers.
How are they taking this
message?
■ If you look at the situation
objectively, whatever message we may have tried toconvey to the Pakistani side,we have not been able toclaim signifi��cant damage andcasualties through evidencethat is credible both domestically and internationally.There is also a report — Idon’t know how crediblethat is — that our aircraft never crossed the LoC, let alonefl��ew into sovereign Pakistaniterritory. We have to waitand see what the government has to say on this particular aspect. If that is true,then the deep penetrationwas through precisionguided missiles and not with aircraft. But still, one could argue that a target deep insidePakistani territory has beenhit and India has lowered thethreshold for response. Hasit changed the strategic calculus of Pakistan? I don’tthink so.
So, in the unfortunate event
of another terror strike,
India will have to better the
last response. Are we now
bound to an escalation
ladder?
■ That is based on the assumption that we really haveno leverage beyond reactingmilitarily. I think the counterterrorism strategy of India, which has military response as a component, alsohas other important components. For example, we really need to enhance our owncounterterrorism capabilities — in terms of intelligence, neutralising targets,
better SOPs for security forces, better technology. Also,to do more effi��ciently whatwe are doing currently, toisolate Pakistan diplomatically. Already, its reputationis at its lowest. It is signifi��cantthat despite tensions between the two countries, theOIC [Organisation of IslamicCooperation] still wentahead with the invitation to[External Aff��airs Minister]Sushma Swarajji. So Pakistan is facing internationalpressure. Therefore, insteadof merely looking at the military options, we need tohave a much more comprehensive view on what ourcounterterrorism strategyshould be. Eff��orts should bemade to ensure that such anact of terrorism does not occur again.
There were a lot of
initiatives following the
2008 Mumbai terror attack,
to develop counterterrorism
capabilities, such as the idea
of a National Counter
Terrorism Centre. Is the
progress of these initiatives
disappointing for you?
■ I think a lot of new me
chanisms came into place.For example, the National Investigation Agency. Our technical capabilities have alsoincreased. It should be appreciated that for a hundredsuccesses that you have inpreventing terrorist incidents from taking place,there is always the possibilityof one failure. That is the nature of the whole phenomenon of terrorism. This factneeds to be appreciated,while we do all we can tomake it more and more diffi��cult for a terrorist to plan andcarry out an attack. This is also the reason why we mustfocus on the vulnerabilitieson our side. For example, ifwe are not completely successful in stopping drugsmuggling across the IndiaPakistan border, it shouldcome as no surprise that aterrorist could also slip in.Here, counterterrorism isnot merely military opera
tions, but also of governance.
Talking of international
response, how do you assess
the responses of the U.S.,
China and Russia to the
incident? They appear to be
conscious of Pakistan’s
strategic value.
■ Well, this is a challenge youwill have to deal with yourself. Every country, includingIndia, works according to itsnational interests. Currently,China has a higher — in fact,unprecedented — level ofcommitment to Pakistanthan before because of thecritical role the latter is playing in the Belt and Road Initiative [BRI]. They say thatthe CPEC [ChinaPakistanEconomic Corridor] is thefl��agship project for the BRI.The current U.S. administration has taken some measures against Pakistan, but italso has compulsions connected to its plans for Afghanistan. It has come to theconclusion, wrongly in myopinion, that Pakistan has animportant role to play inthat. Even when countriesare sympathetic to India,have good counterterrorism
cooperation with India, theyhave other considerationstoo, and there may be limitsbeyond which they may notbe ready to go in targetingPakistan.
Is there is a new equilibrium
between India and Pakistan
after this round of confl��ict?
■ I don’t accept the suggestion of any equilibrium between India and Pakistan. India is a much biggereconomic and military power. If you look at the trajectory of these two countries inrecent years, the gap between them is only growing.India’s growth story, itsmarch towards the status of agreat power, has not beenimpacted even remotely byPakistan’s activities againstit. Pakistan’s eff��orts to ‘bleedIndia through a thousandcuts’ and derail India’s economic success have continuously failed. We should refl��ect on this fact in our sobermoments. On the otherhand, by pursuing such apolicy against India, Pakistanhas ended up with a radicalised society and a vulnerableeconomy. It has also earnedthe reputation of being thebreeding ground of globalterrorism. Pakistan is hurting itself, and today its percapita income is less thanthat of Bangladesh. So, thereis no balance between Indiaand Pakistan to speak of. India should focus more onachieving some approximatebalance with China, which isits real challenge. Pakistan,even with its use of crossborder terrorism as an instrument of state policy, is a distraction from dealing withthe real issues confrontingIndia in its march towardsgreat power status.
That takes us to the question
of the responses within
India to terrorism. There is
mass hysteria being sought
on most mainstream
television channels. How
does this impact national
security?
■ Well, what is happening onIndian television these daysis reprehensible. At moments like these, we need tohave a reasoned debate. Wecannot have a situationwhere anyone who raises aquestion, or who has a diff��erent point of view, is immediately branded as an antinational and nonpatriotic.Who gave the right to an anchor or a political leader togive certifi��cates to others onnationalism and patriotism?That is not acceptable to meas an ordinary citizen of thiscountry.
High offi��cials in the
government, including the
Prime Minister, have made
such statements.
■ Wherever it comes from, itis not justifi��able. Yes, we arein the midst of an electionseason. Even electionsshould be an occasion tohave polite and civil conversations. Democracy is something that we take pridein. If that is going to be eroded, all of us will suff��er.
In the last fi��ve years, the
Government of India has
discontinued engagement
with Pakistan and
separatists on the question
of Kashmir and has
continuously sought to
undermine the regional
political parties. How wise is
that policy?
■ First of all, we have an issue with Pakistan to resolveon Kashmir, which is the return of PakistanoccupiedKashmir [PoK]. It is illegal occupation. Therefore, Jammuand Kashmir has to be part ofthe agenda of IndiaPakistanengagement. Secondly, whilecrossborder terrorism continues, there have been periods of relative peace that
the security forces haveachieved in the Valley whichshould have been utilised bythe political class in order toresolve the political issuesthat are internal. There havebeen repeated failures on thepart of the political leadership on this question. Instead of using the periods ofpeace to reach out to peopleand seek political solutions,the political class slips intocomplacency. Any policythat pushes more and morepolitical constituencies awayin Jammu and Kashmir, bysaying they are antinationals, unpatriotic, separatists —who are you then going toend up talking to? You cannot have a solution to theKashmir issue which is entirely dependent on securitymeasures. This is what ourArmy offi��cials and paramilitary leadership will tell you:we can create some relativepeace, but we are not theanswer to the political issue.
The approach of former
Prime Ministers Atal Bihari
Vajpayee and Manmohan
Singh went beyond merely
seeking the return of PoK.
They both sought to involve
Pakistan in a resolution to
the Kashmir confl��ict, right?
■ Yes. What Dr. Singh saidabout Kashmir is this: ‘I donot have the mandate tochange the border of India.But I do have the mandate tomake the borders as open aspossible to exchange goodsand the movement of people.’ That is not the fi��nal solution. While that fi��nal solutionis still awaiting us, these arethe things we can do to makelife better for people on bothsides of the LoC. That doesnot in any way compromiseour claim over the whole ofJammu and Kashmir.
Broadly speaking, that was
Vajpayee’s policy too, right?
Yes.
THE WEDNESDAY INTERVIEW | SHYAM SARAN
‘India really needs to enhance its counterterrorism capabilities’The former Foreign Secretary on isolating Pakistan diplomatically, the world’s responses to the Pulwama attack, and New Delhi’s Kashmir policy
VARGHESE K. GEORGE
<> You cannot have a
solution to the
Kashmir issue which
is entirely
dependent on
security measures.
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