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Week 2 : Wednesday 18 October Week 2 : Wednesday 18 October

Lecturer: Jennifer HarperLecturer: Jennifer Harper

Topic: Historical Overview of ForesightTopic: Historical Overview of ForesightEvolving Rationales and STI Policy ApproachesEvolving Rationales and STI Policy Approaches

Please scroll to the end of the Please scroll to the end of the presentation for Important information presentation for Important information on Individual Assignments and Group on Individual Assignments and Group

PresentationsPresentations

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Outline Outline

Foresight in historical context Foresight in historical context Chronology of future studies Chronology of future studies National Foresight rationaleNational Foresight rationaleNational Innovation Policy and foresight National Innovation Policy and foresight Chronology of national foresight activity Chronology of national foresight activity Private sector foresight Private sector foresight Rationale for corporate foresight Rationale for corporate foresight Public-Private sector rationalesPublic-Private sector rationales4 Generations of Foresight 4 Generations of Foresight Questions for discussion Questions for discussion

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Foresight in historical contextForesight in historical context

Foresight emerges from future studies, itself an Foresight emerges from future studies, itself an evolving concept evolving concept Global geopolitical, socio-economic and cultural Global geopolitical, socio-economic and cultural impacts on future studies and foresightimpacts on future studies and foresightEvolving rationales of foresight with emergence Evolving rationales of foresight with emergence of STS and developments in thinking on of STS and developments in thinking on national systems of innovationnational systems of innovationTowards a convergence of public/private Towards a convergence of public/private rationales?rationales?What of new rationales: regional, transnational?What of new rationales: regional, transnational?

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Chronology of Future studies 50’s-60’sChronology of Future studies 50’s-60’s

Utopian, utilitarian approach to future studies Utopian, utilitarian approach to future studies largely dominated by US worldview largely dominated by US worldview First systematic approaches: forecasting in USFirst systematic approaches: forecasting in US60’s science-art schism/ dual approaches60’s science-art schism/ dual approachesGolden age – more science than art Golden age – more science than art OECD-sponsored work by Austrian Erich OECD-sponsored work by Austrian Erich Jantsch on Technology forecasting (an art)Jantsch on Technology forecasting (an art)Dominance of technology-oriented think-tanks Dominance of technology-oriented think-tanks (Keynesian central planning)(Keynesian central planning)Forward view in trans-national corporationsForward view in trans-national corporations

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Chronology of Future studies (60’s)Chronology of Future studies (60’s)

Technology forecasting established practice in US for Technology forecasting established practice in US for military and industrial purposes as compared to more military and industrial purposes as compared to more arts-oriented approach in Europe arts-oriented approach in Europe

Jouvenel: conjecture to stress the uncertainty of the field Jouvenel: conjecture to stress the uncertainty of the field and difficulty of making models of the futureand difficulty of making models of the future

Big international conference (Oslo, 1967) In Big international conference (Oslo, 1967) In Mankind Mankind 2000", Galtung challenges the traditional division of 2000", Galtung challenges the traditional division of labour between ideologists who establish values, labour between ideologists who establish values, scientists who establish trends, and politicians who try to scientists who establish trends, and politicians who try to adjust means to ends adjust means to ends

1967 Kahn’s Year 2000 introduced scenario-writing1967 Kahn’s Year 2000 introduced scenario-writing

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Post-WW Dual Approaches Post-WW Dual Approaches

European European Impact of war & nation-building Impact of war & nation-building Sceptical mood :anti-science & Sceptical mood :anti-science & technologytechnologyCivic, social activist-Civic, social activist-emancipatory orientation emancipatory orientation Peace studies (Galtung), Peace studies (Galtung), Visioning workshops (Masini)Visioning workshops (Masini)Future studies as conjectural Future studies as conjectural thinking reflecting a more arts-thinking reflecting a more arts-oriented approach (de Jouvenel, oriented approach (de Jouvenel, Futuribles) Futuribles) European response to US European response to US technocentric approaches technocentric approaches

North AmericanNorth AmericanLaissez-faire economic Laissez-faire economic prosperity, optimism and prosperity, optimism and power power Era of big science, Space Era of big science, Space and arms race: and arms race: Focus on quantitative Focus on quantitative methodologies, technocratic methodologies, technocratic scenarios, forecasting scenarios, forecasting Key players: Rand, Hudson Key players: Rand, Hudson Institute and Stanford Institute and Stanford pioneers of future studies pioneers of future studies Delphi forecasts, technology Delphi forecasts, technology assessments, and macro-assessments, and macro-economic analyses as key economic analyses as key tools tools

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Key Players Key Players

EuropeEuropeWorld Futures Studies World Futures Studies Federation (1973) Paris Federation (1973) Paris with UNESCO assistance with UNESCO assistance www.wfsf.orgwww.wfsf.org

Club of Rome Club of Rome www.clubofrome.orgwww.clubofrome.org 1967 1967 (Agnelli Foundation)(Agnelli Foundation)

Futuribles Group (1962 Futuribles Group (1962 Paris)Paris) www. futuribles.com/www. futuribles.com/

USUSWorld Futures Society World Futures Society Washington (1966) Washington (1966) www.wfs.orgwww.wfs.org

Global Business Global Business Network, California Network, California (1987) (1987) www.gbn.orgwww.gbn.org

Association of Association of Professional Futurists Professional Futurists Midland, US (APF) Midland, US (APF) www.profuturists.comwww.profuturists.com

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Chronology of Future studies (70s’)Chronology of Future studies (70s’)

Geopolitical crises (Vietnam and oil) challenged Geopolitical crises (Vietnam and oil) challenged technocratic mindsets technocratic mindsets Shift from trends and predictions to incorporate sudden Shift from trends and predictions to incorporate sudden shocks and alternative futuresshocks and alternative futures WWestern worldview based on certainty, predictability, estern worldview based on certainty, predictability, control and instrumental rationality seems now fractured control and instrumental rationality seems now fractured and incoherent (Slaughter)and incoherent (Slaughter) Shift from management by objectives and forecasting to Shift from management by objectives and forecasting to scenario-driven planning, computer simulations and scenario-driven planning, computer simulations and systems theory systems theory ‘‘the expansionary ethos of technological civilisation’ the expansionary ethos of technological civilisation’ questioned and need for limits to growth highlighted questioned and need for limits to growth highlighted (Club of Rome) (Club of Rome) Future studies emerges as transdisciplinary social Future studies emerges as transdisciplinary social sciencescience. .

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Chronology of Future studiesChronology of Future studies

1973 French approach lead by 1973 French approach lead by BergerBerger and successors and successors (La Prospective) emphasizing the importance of human (La Prospective) emphasizing the importance of human values and education in preparation for, and as elements values and education in preparation for, and as elements in, planning. in, planning. Contrast of French approach with Anglo-Saxon future-Contrast of French approach with Anglo-Saxon future-oriented activities: the future as the inevitable extension oriented activities: the future as the inevitable extension of the present and favouring short-term partial of the present and favouring short-term partial programmes. programmes. Slaughter and BellSlaughter and Bell (US) published volumes on future (US) published volumes on future studies (history, methods, ethics and future directions)studies (history, methods, ethics and future directions)Daniel Bell, TofflerDaniel Bell, Toffler and later and later NaisbittNaisbitt highlight future highlight future trends and megatrends.trends and megatrends.

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Chronology of Future studies (80’s-90’s)Chronology of Future studies (80’s-90’s)

GodetGodet’s work on scenarios inspired large number of ’s work on scenarios inspired large number of scenario-based studies on Year 2000 scenario-based studies on Year 2000 1986 Stockholm workshop on surprising futures 1986 Stockholm workshop on surprising futures 1993 1993 SardaSardar’s Colonizing the Future analyses the r’s Colonizing the Future analyses the evolution of futures studies as increasingly an instrument evolution of futures studies as increasingly an instrument for marginalising non-Western cultures from the future.for marginalising non-Western cultures from the future. 1994 1994 Jungk Jungk participatory foresight emerges - futures participatory foresight emerges - futures workshops involving ordinary people in creating possible workshops involving ordinary people in creating possible and desirable futures and desirable futures 1995 1995 SlaughterSlaughter’s "The Foresight Principle“ projects ’s "The Foresight Principle“ projects foresight as the process of attempting to broaden the foresight as the process of attempting to broaden the boundaries of perception by careful futures scanning and boundaries of perception by careful futures scanning and the clarification of emerging situations. Foresight is not the clarification of emerging situations. Foresight is not the ability to predict the future, but a way of facilitating the ability to predict the future, but a way of facilitating desirable individual and social change. desirable individual and social change.

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National Foresight National Foresight

Rationales Rationales ContextContextDriversDriversPolicyPolicyNew Policy ParadigmNew Policy ParadigmInnovation Policy and Foresight Innovation Policy and Foresight Extending range and focusExtending range and focusCountry examplesCountry examples

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Foresight and National Policy Foresight and National Policy

Foresight in government can not define Foresight in government can not define policy, but it can help condition policies policy, but it can help condition policies to be more appropriate, more flexible and to be more appropriate, more flexible and more robust in their implementation, as more robust in their implementation, as times and circumstance change. times and circumstance change.

Coates (1985)Coates (1985)

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Shifting Rationales of Shifting Rationales of National Foresight National Foresight

1970’s Picking the winners: technology foresight 1970’s Picking the winners: technology foresight as the means for identifying emerging as the means for identifying emerging technologies likely to yield economic and social technologies likely to yield economic and social benefitsbenefits

1980’s Realisation that governments cannot 1980’s Realisation that governments cannot ‘pick winners’ and that this implies a move away ‘pick winners’ and that this implies a move away from selective policies and a stronger focus on from selective policies and a stronger focus on framework conditions, i.e. conditions that are in framework conditions, i.e. conditions that are in principle common to all the players (firms) in the principle common to all the players (firms) in the national economynational economy

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Shifting Rationales of Shifting Rationales of National Foresight National Foresight

1990’s Range of foresight objectives related to 1990’s Range of foresight objectives related to wiring up the national and regional system of wiring up the national and regional system of innovation and more long-term coherent, and innovation and more long-term coherent, and joined-up approaches to innovation policy (to joined-up approaches to innovation policy (to learn and innovate more effectively)learn and innovate more effectively)

2000’s More emphasis on embedding2000’s More emphasis on embedding of a of a ‘Foresight culture’‘Foresight culture’ together withtogether with ccreation of reation of visions and/or priority-settingvisions and/or priority-setting ((Keenan,2001Keenan,2001) )

Process vs content as key outcomes Process vs content as key outcomes

Different forms of foresight spark new rationalesDifferent forms of foresight spark new rationales

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Context: Global Context: Global

Concept of globalising learning economy and Concept of globalising learning economy and national systems of innovation (Lundvall) – need national systems of innovation (Lundvall) – need for fast learning and unlearning to keep ahead. for fast learning and unlearning to keep ahead.

AA learning economylearning economy is an economy where the is an economy where the ability to learn is crucial for the economic ability to learn is crucial for the economic success of individuals, firms, regions and success of individuals, firms, regions and national economies. national economies.

““Learning” refers to building new competences Learning” refers to building new competences and establishing new skills and not just to and establishing new skills and not just to “getting access to information”.“getting access to information”.

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Drivers of change Drivers of change

Martin’s key drivers of change in the economy over Martin’s key drivers of change in the economy over coming decades - coming decades - the 4 Cs:the 4 Cs:

increasing Competitionincreasing Competition (globalisation, more players, (globalisation, more players, varying labour costs –unemployment, social cohesion, varying labour costs –unemployment, social cohesion, sustainability and risk)sustainability and risk)

increasing Constraints on public expenditureincreasing Constraints on public expenditure (need to (need to balance budget deficit, accountability, efficiency)balance budget deficit, accountability, efficiency)

increasing Complexityincreasing Complexity (convergence of levels, systems, (convergence of levels, systems, sectors, technologies, need for better understanding of sectors, technologies, need for better understanding of complex systems, improved networking)complex systems, improved networking)

increasing importance of scientific and technological increasing importance of scientific and technological CompetenciesCompetencies (knowledge a strategic resource, fast job (knowledge a strategic resource, fast job change,need for continuous learning, generic skills)change,need for continuous learning, generic skills)

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Innovation Policy Innovation Policy

Innovation policy refers to elements of S&T & industrial policy Innovation policy refers to elements of S&T & industrial policy explicitly aimed at promoting the development, spread & efficient explicitly aimed at promoting the development, spread & efficient use of new products, services & processes in markets or inside use of new products, services & processes in markets or inside private & public organisations. private & public organisations.

Main focus of innovation policy:Main focus of innovation policy:

Impact on economic performance and social cohesionImpact on economic performance and social cohesionpolicies aimed at organisational change & marketing of policies aimed at organisational change & marketing of new productsnew products..

Other policy areas affect innovationOther policy areas affect innovation::competition policy, and macroeconomic policy, competition policy, and macroeconomic policy, sectoral policies: environment, energy, transport, IT & sectoral policies: environment, energy, transport, IT & communications communications education and human resource development policy.education and human resource development policy.

Source: adapted from Lundvall (ftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/tser/docs/globeco.doc

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New Innovation Policy ParadigmNew Innovation Policy ParadigmThe new paradigm is oriented towards shaping an efficient The new paradigm is oriented towards shaping an efficient

innovation system that can adapt to rapid change. innovation system that can adapt to rapid change. The The new policy paradigmnew policy paradigm focuses on creating adaptable focuses on creating adaptable innovation systems by: innovation systems by:

firstly, stimulating learning institutions and economic firstly, stimulating learning institutions and economic actors; actors; secondly, developing integrative and coordinated policy secondly, developing integrative and coordinated policy visions and instruments for enhancing innovation; and visions and instruments for enhancing innovation; and thirdly, creating the conditions for a policy-making thirdly, creating the conditions for a policy-making process which is also learning and adapting constantly to process which is also learning and adapting constantly to the new demands and conditions of the economy.the new demands and conditions of the economy.

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Innovation Policy and Foresight Innovation Policy and Foresight Innovation policy has wider objectives than S&T policy (supply-Innovation policy has wider objectives than S&T policy (supply-driven and demand-driven measures)..concern with the driven and demand-driven measures)..concern with the innovation system as a whole and with policies to improve its innovation system as a whole and with policies to improve its dynamics by increasing interaction, networking and learning dynamics by increasing interaction, networking and learning between key players. between key players.

Foresight has a critical role to play here..Foresight has a critical role to play here..The The foresightforesight process involves intense iterative phases of open process involves intense iterative phases of open reflection, networking, consultation, and discussion leading to reflection, networking, consultation, and discussion leading to the the joint refining of future visionsjoint refining of future visions and the and the common common ownership of strategiesownership of strategies, with the aim of exploiting long-term , with the aim of exploiting long-term opportunities opened up through the impact of STI on society opportunities opened up through the impact of STI on society …. It is …. It is the discovery of a common space for open thinking the discovery of a common space for open thinking on the futureon the future and the and the incubation of strategic approachesincubation of strategic approaches … … the the foresightforesight process has no beginning or end, since it builds process has no beginning or end, since it builds on previous and ongoing conversations and consultations and on previous and ongoing conversations and consultations and sets in motion sets in motion learning curves and other intangible spin-offslearning curves and other intangible spin-offs which are not easily captured in short timeframeswhich are not easily captured in short timeframes

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Extending range of national foresightExtending range of national foresight objectivesobjectives

Priority settingPriority setting Reorienting Science & Innovation systemReorienting Science & Innovation system Demonstrating vitality of S & I systemDemonstrating vitality of S & I system Bringing new actors into the strategic debateBringing new actors into the strategic debate Building new networks and linkages across fields, Building new networks and linkages across fields,

sectors & markets or around problems sectors & markets or around problems All above may be at organisational, local, All above may be at organisational, local,

regional, national or supranational levelsregional, national or supranational levels Timescale ranges from immediate future to far Timescale ranges from immediate future to far

horizon horizon

Source: Georghiou, 2003 http://www.unido.org/file-storage/download/27Source: Georghiou, 2003 http://www.unido.org/file-storage/download/27

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Extending Focus of Foresight topicsExtending Focus of Foresight topics

Scientific and Technological Scientific and Technological EconomicEconomicIndustrialIndustrialDemographic change Demographic change SocialSocialPoliticalPoliticalEnvironmental/ Sustainable development Environmental/ Sustainable development Cultural Cultural

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History and origins of national foresightHistory and origins of national foresight

50-60’s First experiences in United States50-60’s First experiences in United StatesTechnology forecasting, development of techniques (Delphi, Technology forecasting, development of techniques (Delphi, scenarios), large forecasting exercises by DOD scenarios), large forecasting exercises by DOD Field Surveys (astronomy, life sciences): platform to educate Field Surveys (astronomy, life sciences): platform to educate industry & government industry & government Limited impact: did not address socio-economic demands or Limited impact: did not address socio-economic demands or priority-setting priority-setting Late 80’s declining competitiveness lead to upsurge of interest in Late 80’s declining competitiveness lead to upsurge of interest in foresightforesightForesight exercises by DOD, Department of Commerce, Council Foresight exercises by DOD, Department of Commerce, Council on Competitiveness, Aerospace Industries Assocon Competitiveness, Aerospace Industries Assocshort list of critical technologies using explicit selection criteria short list of critical technologies using explicit selection criteria applied to initial long list applied to initial long list Over-reliance on a committee - limited interaction with industrial Over-reliance on a committee - limited interaction with industrial and scientific communities and less commitment to resultsand scientific communities and less commitment to results

Source: adapted from Ben Martin (2001)

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History and origins of national foresightHistory and origins of national foresight

70’s Japan70’s JapanSTA 30-Year Forecasts - predictive + normative STA 30-Year Forecasts - predictive + normative (goal-setting)(goal-setting)‘‘holistic’ overview, incorporate socio-economic holistic’ overview, incorporate socio-economic needs, S&T advancesneeds, S&T advancesProcess benefits more important than specific Process benefits more important than specific forecastsforecastshigh accuracy of 1970 Forecasts:64% almost fully high accuracy of 1970 Forecasts:64% almost fully realised in first 20 yrs - forecasts become goals and realised in first 20 yrs - forecasts become goals and then self-fulfilling propheciesthen self-fulfilling propheciesdifferent levels of foresight - holistic, macro, meso different levels of foresight - holistic, macro, meso and micro - each draws upon, and feeds into, higher and micro - each draws upon, and feeds into, higher and lower levels - i.e. a national foresight systemand lower levels - i.e. a national foresight system

Source: adapted from Ben Martin (2001)

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History and origins of national foresightHistory and origins of national foresight

80’s France80’s FranceEarly initiatives, e.g. Early initiatives, e.g. 1982 National Colloquium on 1982 National Colloquium on Research and TechnologyResearch and Technology

Ministry of Industry - key technologies Ministry of Industry - key technologies exercise in 1994 and 1999exercise in 1994 and 1999Ministry for HE & Research - Delphi survey Ministry for HE & Research - Delphi survey (using Japanese q’s) comparison of views of (using Japanese q’s) comparison of views of French experts with German and JapaneseFrench experts with German and JapaneseOther lower-level foresight exercises e.g. at Other lower-level foresight exercises e.g. at regional levelregional level

Source: adapted from Ben Martin (2001)Source: adapted from Ben Martin (2001)

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History and origins of national foresightHistory and origins of national foresight

Late 80’s Late 80’s NetherlandsNetherlandsForesight exercises by Ministry of Economic Affairs Foresight exercises by Ministry of Economic Affairs Consultations in 3 areas and analysis Consultations in 3 areas and analysis Strategic conference with stakeholders to test results, Strategic conference with stakeholders to test results, create consensus & commitment, then follow-up (e.g. create consensus & commitment, then follow-up (e.g. pilot project, new institute). pilot project, new institute). Repeated every 2 yearsRepeated every 2 yearsTime-consuming especially to involve SMEs but results Time-consuming especially to involve SMEs but results valuable to participants (75%) and many implemented valuable to participants (75%) and many implemented (60%)(60%)Follow-up exercises by Ministries of Education & Follow-up exercises by Ministries of Education & Science and AgricultureScience and Agriculture

Source: adapted from Ben Martin (2001Source: adapted from Ben Martin (2001

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History and origins of national foresightHistory and origins of national foresight

Early 90’s GermanyEarly 90’s Germany ISI and BMFT Projektträeger - list of 100 emerging ISI and BMFT Projektträeger - list of 100 emerging technologiestechnologies30-Year Delphi Survey - used Japanese q’s - 30-Year Delphi Survey - used Japanese q’s - comparison with Japanese results - similar comparison with Japanese results - similar realisation times but differ over importance & realisation times but differ over importance & constraints (different national systems of constraints (different national systems of innovation). Repeated 5 years laterinnovation). Repeated 5 years laterLänder, industrial sectors (e.g. chemicals), in-house Länder, industrial sectors (e.g. chemicals), in-house foresight by companiesforesight by companiesReference: Kerstin Cuhls Fraunhofer ISIReference: Kerstin Cuhls Fraunhofer ISI

Source: adapted from Ben Martin (2001)Source: adapted from Ben Martin (2001)

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Chronology of national Foresight/typeChronology of national Foresight/type Source: Georghiou, 2003

Year Delphi Mixed Panel/scenario 1970s - 30 years in

Japan

1989 Ministry of Economic Affairs Netherlands

1990 1st German 1991 Critical Technologies USA 1992 New Zealand 1993 South Korea Technologies at Threshold of 21st

Century Germany 1994 France

Japan/ Germany Mini Delphi

1st UK TF Programme

1995 100 Key Technologies France 1996 Japan –

German Delphi

Australia Foresight Steering Committee Netherlands 1st Italy Industry Foresight

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Chronology of national Foresight/typeChronology of national Foresight/typeSource: Georghiou, 2003

1997 ANEP Spain Ireland 1998 Austria Hungary South Africa

New Zealand Sweden

1999 ITC Foresight - Thailand

2nd UK TF Programme FUTUR 0 Germany 2nd 100 Key Technologies (Fr)

2000 7th Japanese Delphi

ET2000 (Portugal) IPTS Futures Project (EU)

2001 Futur 1 Germany TF Programme (Greece) TF Exercise (Czech Republic)

2002 3rd UK TF Programme eForesee(Cyprus,Estonia,Malta) 2nd Swedish TF Programme

2003 8th Japanese Delphi

Euforia (EU) Foretech (Bulgaria, Romania)

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Overview of National ForesightOverview of National Foresight US origins: defence-related, forecasting – emphasis on US origins: defence-related, forecasting – emphasis on institution-building with setting up of a range of institution-building with setting up of a range of institutesinstitutesLength, depth and impact of Japanese exercise both in Length, depth and impact of Japanese exercise both in terms of accuracy but also policy learning in France and terms of accuracy but also policy learning in France and Germany primarily and beyondGermany primarily and beyondSocial-cultural and economic aspects emerge as key Social-cultural and economic aspects emerge as key factors factors Gradual shift towards panel/scenario methods although Gradual shift towards panel/scenario methods although Delphi popular in more advanced economiesDelphi popular in more advanced economiesMajor proliferation of foresight activity in 1990s, Major proliferation of foresight activity in 1990s, especially in Europe and East Asia especially in Europe and East Asia Sectoral and thematic focus in transition economies but Sectoral and thematic focus in transition economies but within general efforts to wire up innovation system within general efforts to wire up innovation system framework. framework.

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Foresight in the Private sector Foresight in the Private sector

Much pioneering work done in the USA in 1950s Much pioneering work done in the USA in 1950s and 1960s by think tanks (e.g. RAND) and large and 1960s by think tanks (e.g. RAND) and large companies (e.g. Honeywell)companies (e.g. Honeywell)Forecasters criticised for failing to anticipate the Forecasters criticised for failing to anticipate the 1973 oil crisis (although there was one notable 1973 oil crisis (although there was one notable exception)exception)Many large firms continued to use some of the Many large firms continued to use some of the methods, particularly scenariosmethods, particularly scenariosRecent major upsurge of interest, mirroring Recent major upsurge of interest, mirroring increased popularity in the public sectorincreased popularity in the public sector

Georghiou, 2003

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Private sector Rationale Private sector Rationale

Highly dynamic competitive environment Highly dynamic competitive environment with continuous pressure to engage in with continuous pressure to engage in RTDI activities. RTDI activities.

Corporate foresight grounded in two Corporate foresight grounded in two motives:motives: Reactive: in response to companies’ business Reactive: in response to companies’ business

operation demands a long-term orientation (as in operation demands a long-term orientation (as in industries with long product cycles), or industries with long product cycles), or

Proactive: to better cope with uncertainties in the Proactive: to better cope with uncertainties in the business environment in general.business environment in general.

www.cordis.lu/foresight/working.htm

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Why corporate foresight? Why corporate foresight? 1.1. As an early warning system in fast-changing sectors such As an early warning system in fast-changing sectors such

as consumer goods and ICT) in order to identify future as consumer goods and ICT) in order to identify future threats and opportunities for their businesses.threats and opportunities for their businesses.

2.2. To To prepare for possible „wild card“-events and sudden prepare for possible „wild card“-events and sudden shocks shocks (like 9/11) in the political, economic and social (like 9/11) in the political, economic and social spheresphere

3.3. To better understand the social/cultural context of use of To better understand the social/cultural context of use of technologytechnology

4.4. To build up knowledge To build up knowledge both about emerging technologies both about emerging technologies and their future users in technology-intensive sectors and their future users in technology-intensive sectors (Philips, Ericsson, IBM, Siemens) (Philips, Ericsson, IBM, Siemens)

5.5. to open up the company to the outside world to open up the company to the outside world and to find and to find starting points for innovation transfer, co-operation and starting points for innovation transfer, co-operation and best practices.best practices.

6.6. To provide important background information about the To provide important background information about the future conditions and contexts in which the company will future conditions and contexts in which the company will have to operate. have to operate.

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Why corporate foresight ?Why corporate foresight ?

Foresight Foresight analyses of the business environment analyses of the business environment often often serve serve as the starting point for the development as the starting point for the development of a of a corresponding corresponding corporate strategycorporate strategy and to better embed and to better embed corporate strategy in the socio-economic context.corporate strategy in the socio-economic context.

Anticipatory intelligence (early warning)Anticipatory intelligence (early warning)

Direction-setting (corporate strategy)Direction-setting (corporate strategy)

Determining priorities (to guide R&D funding decisions)Determining priorities (to guide R&D funding decisions)

Strategy formulation Strategy formulation

Innovation catalysing (stimulating innovation processes Innovation catalysing (stimulating innovation processes

between partnersbetween partners))

www.cordis.lu/foresight/working.htm

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Types of corporate foresight activityTypes of corporate foresight activity

Level

Type of activity Scope Specialisation

Low Volvo, Lufthansa

The “collecting post” search and collection of future–related information

Embedded in other strategic R&D activity

Out-sourced (specialized consultancies)

Medium-High IBM, ENI

The “observatory” – autonomous unit

Long-term strategic intelligence on future-related issues

Specialised In-house staff External contacts

Elaborate Ericcson, BT, Philips

the “think tank” – special units

Extending to wider socio-economic, cultural/regional

Generalists Global network of experts

www.cordis.lu/foresight/working.htm

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Thematic focusThematic focus

Technology trendsTechnology trends

Market trendsMarket trends

+ + following aspects for those operating in following aspects for those operating in sectors featuring social embeddednesssectors featuring social embeddedness

SocialSocial

PoliticalPolitical

RegionalRegionalwww.cordis.lu/foresight/working.htmwww.cordis.lu/foresight/working.htm

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Common corporate foresight toolsCommon corporate foresight toolsQQualitative (interactive, person-oriented) rather than ualitative (interactive, person-oriented) rather than

quantitativequantitative Publication analysesPublication analyses

Patent analysesPatent analysesBenchmarking analysesBenchmarking analysesMarket analyses, trend Market analyses, trend analysesanalysesDatabase researchDatabase researchCompany’s own, delimited Company’s own, delimited Delphi surveyDelphi surveyTechnology Calendars and Technology Calendars and roadmapsroadmapsCreativity techniques Creativity techniques brainstorming, intuitive brainstorming, intuitive thinking)thinking)

Scenario techniquesScenario techniquesCompetitive technology Competitive technology intelligence (monitoring)intelligence (monitoring)Trend extrapolationTrend extrapolationSystems dynamics Systems dynamics simulationsimulationMultilinear modellingMultilinear modellingInternal innovation or Internal innovation or future workshopsfuture workshopsSystematic questioning of Systematic questioning of customerscustomersRisk analysis/ Cost analysisRisk analysis/ Cost analysis

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Four Generations of Foresight Four Generations of Foresight Generation First Second Third Fourth Focus Technology

forecasts Technology and Markets

Technology, markets and the social dimension

Innovation system

Programme Structure

Science and technology

Industry & Service Sectors

Thematic, socio-economic, problem-solving

Structural, framework conditions, regional

Actors Experts Academics and Industry

Academics, industry, Gov & social stakeholders

+Regional and local players, in-house & external

Objectives Picking winners

Networking the economy

Wiring up NIS Self-organising NIS

Source: adapted fromGeorghiou, 2003

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Evolving Rationales for Foresight Evolving Rationales for Foresight

Decision-taking about strategic, long-term policies in the area of Decision-taking about strategic, long-term policies in the area of research, technology and innovation is becoming more and more research, technology and innovation is becoming more and more complex, with science and technology (i.e. scientific and complex, with science and technology (i.e. scientific and technological innovation) being both a major driver of and strongly technological innovation) being both a major driver of and strongly driven by social change and economic development. driven by social change and economic development.

Innovation takes place at many levels : company, sectoral, city, Innovation takes place at many levels : company, sectoral, city, regional, national, transnational, international systems. Knowledge is regional, national, transnational, international systems. Knowledge is distributed among players at different levels. The emerging foresight distributed among players at different levels. The emerging foresight challenge is to create: challenge is to create:

the most effective ways of capturing existing knowledge and the most effective ways of capturing existing knowledge and generating new knowledge and learning generating new knowledge and learning

for tackling the complexity and dynamics of the globalising for tackling the complexity and dynamics of the globalising economy economy

both in terms of long-term perspectives and challenges andboth in terms of long-term perspectives and challenges and present-day decisions to construct a better future. present-day decisions to construct a better future.

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Public/private sector rationalesPublic/private sector rationales 

Public sector Private Sector

General objective

Anticipation of future developments in science, technology, economy, politics and society

Specific objective

Generating ideas and visions for technology and innovationIdentifying and prioritising related policy measures

Identification of opportunities/risks in markets, technologies, and the business environmentIdentifying strategic options

Major actors

Governmental bodiesExpert communitiesNGOs

Strategic planning unitsResearch and TechnologyCorporate think tanks

Time scope 5-20 years 2-15 years

Duration of typical projects

1 to 3 years(periodically repeated)

3 months to 1 year(periodically repeated)

Common methods

Delphi Studies Expert Interviews Technology Monitoring & Scanning

Analysis of patents/licenses Scenarios (and others)

Source: Keenan

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Topics for assignments Topics for assignments

1.1. Are there limits to convergence of public/private Are there limits to convergence of public/private rationales for foresight - define them.rationales for foresight - define them.

2.2. Drawing on public/private rationales, outline Drawing on public/private rationales, outline emerging rationales of regional and/ or emerging rationales of regional and/ or transnational foresight. transnational foresight.

3.3. In distinguishing between the terms foresight, In distinguishing between the terms foresight, future studies, forecasting and la prospective, future studies, forecasting and la prospective, identify the points of overlap and divergence identify the points of overlap and divergence and how these impact on foresight practice.and how these impact on foresight practice.

4.4. ““NNo tool should serve as a substitute for o tool should serve as a substitute for reflection or a check on freedom of choice” reflection or a check on freedom of choice” Discuss. Discuss.

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Individual assignments and group Individual assignments and group presentationspresentations

Please start thinking about your individual Please start thinking about your individual assignments – you can choose from the topics assignments – you can choose from the topics at the end of each lecture and you can also at the end of each lecture and you can also choose your own topic in consultation with me or choose your own topic in consultation with me or Gordon.Gordon.Please also start thinking about group Please also start thinking about group powerpoint presentations – you can address powerpoint presentations – you can address any topic but make it interesting and creative any topic but make it interesting and creative and confirm it with me.and confirm it with me.Please choose a different theme for your group Please choose a different theme for your group presentation from your individual assignment presentation from your individual assignment topic topic

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Topics for Individual assignmentsTopics for Individual assignments

Topics that can be addressed apart from set questions at Topics that can be addressed apart from set questions at the end of lecture:the end of lecture:Evaluation or impact assessment of a major foresight Evaluation or impact assessment of a major foresight activity activity Effective engagement /outreach to policy-makers and Effective engagement /outreach to policy-makers and society society Emerging themes in foresight like ethical issues, Emerging themes in foresight like ethical issues, systemic and/or adaptive foresight, Higher Education or systemic and/or adaptive foresight, Higher Education or university foresight, regional foresight, university foresight, regional foresight, Emerging tools: disruption scenarios, success scenarios, Emerging tools: disruption scenarios, success scenarios, on-line approaches and horizon scanning. on-line approaches and horizon scanning.

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ReferencesReferences

http://forera.jrc.es/fta/intro.htmlhttp://forera.jrc.es/fta/intro.htmlhttp://www.efmn.infohttp://www.efmn.infohttp://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/home.htmhttp://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/home.htmhttp://www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSocietyhttp://www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSocietyhttp://www.costa22.org/http://www.costa22.org/http://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htmhttp://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htmhttp://www.unido.org/doc/12296http://www.unido.org/doc/12296http://www.futurreg.net/http://www.futurreg.net/

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