week 4 presentation 3 insight
TRANSCRIPT
Can you run faster?
Alexis Yelton
Runners want to run fasterWhat goal should you set for a half marathon time?
How can I improve on that time?
Data from Strava.com
Pace
Time series, demographic, and aggregated running data on 10,000 runners. 1,000 with half-marathon times and other features.
Data from Strava.com
Distance past month Weight range
Time past month Age range
Pace past month Number of rest days/wk
Distance past 6 months Number of long days/wk
Gender Sdev pace
Analysis
Benchmarking with a linear model 0.49 10 min
Nonlinear regression modeling1. Lasso regression 0.48 10 min2. Ridge regression 0.48 10 min3. Random forest regression 0.66 8.3 min 3-fold cross-validation
Regression r2
RMSE
Validation:179 runners 0.79 6.2 min
Seems to be related to a different distribution in the test set. Possibly because of importance of outliers.
Your average pace over the past month is the most important feature by far.
ResultsVariable importance
Increase in node purity
Pace past month
Distance past month
Distance past 6 months
Elevation past month
Rest days
SD pace
Weight
Long days
Age
Gender
About me: Alexis Yelton, MIT postdocChitinase in marine cyanobacteria
Chiti
nase
acti
vity
My first half marathon:1:56:30
Personal best:1:47:56