week 7: impacts on regional politics lecture 18: the american war against (terrorist) taliban
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Week 7: Impacts on Regional Politics Lecture 18: The American War Against (Terrorist) Taliban. 17 th March 2003 (Monday). Mid-term Examination (24 th March, Monday). 30% of the Total Grade 7:00-8:30pm, Room To Be Announced Next Monday Class Covers Lectures 1-20 20 Multiple Choices - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Week 7: Impacts on Regional Politics
Lecture 18: The American War Against (Terrorist) Taliban
17th March 2003 (Monday)
Mid-term Examination (24th March, Monday)
30% of the Total Grade 7:00-8:30pm, Room To Be Announced
Next Monday Class Covers Lectures 1-20 20 Multiple Choices 1 Short Questions with Choices
Mainstream Questions. E.g. Why did 911 happen? Among the possible reasons, which are valid and which are overstated? Please draw the examples from the course, as well as from other sources that you know, and please answer in your own opinion.
Question from Readings. E.g. Please discuss two of the assigned articles with contradictory perspectives, and analyze the origins of their respective perspective.
Review Session this Week Please Bring All the Notes
Take it Easy! ^o^
Logistics of Guest Lectures
Israel Consul General Eli Avidar The Israeli-Palestinian Issue The Israeli Response to the Current World Order The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan Announced by US
President George W Bush Last Saturday Lecture 19: 19th March 2003 (Wednesday) PLEASE ARRIVE ON TIME at 11am SHARP Lunch (12:00-1:00): Chinese Restaurant (南北小廚 ), G/F
Structure of Lecture 18:War Against Taliban Introduction
Relationship Between Superpower Politics & Regional Politics
Afghanistan: A Brief History Why Afghanistan in the 1st
Wave of Anti-terrorism? Impacts of the War Conclusion:
What is the Name of the War?
PART I: IntroductionThe Warring Relationship
Between Superpower Politics & Regional Politics
On Behalf of the Superpower: Proxy War
War in a Remote Country of the Superpowers: The Warring Parties are All “Pro
xies” of the Superpowers. Backstage Bosses = Superpowe
rs Advantages:
No Direct Conflict Between the Superpowers
No Civilian Losses Diplomatic Flexibility
The Angolan Civil War (1970s)
FNLA: US+China-back Angolan Guerilla
MPLA: Cuba-back Angolan Guerilla Proxy’s Proxy (USSR—Cub
a—MPLA) UNITA: South Africa-back Ango
lan Guerilla Proxy’s Proxy (Anglo-Americ
an Rightists—South Africa—UNITA)
Proxy or Direct Involvement?
Advantage of Direct Involvement Over Proxy War: Towards the Iron Triangle (esp.
Military and Industrialists) Targeting towards the Regional
Order Vs towards another International Competitor
Internal Politics: Polling, Public Opinion and the Responsibility of Governments…
On Behalf of Host Countries: “Using the Barbarians against Barbarians”
Qing Dynasty’s Strategy to Invite Foreign Powers to Have Fun in China yiyizhiyi (Using the Barbarians against Barbaria
ns) The Danger of Being Overtaken Singapore’s Lee Kuan-Yew
Invite British Interests to Stay to Counter-balance the Malaysian Interests
Taiwan’s Chiang Kai-shek Invite USA to Station the
Seventh Fleet to Safeguard against Communist Aggression
PART IIAfghanistan: A Brief History
The Location of Afghanistan
An Ignored Empire in the Past
CNN’s The History of Afghanistan. http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trade.center/afghanistan.timeline/index.html
Have you heard of Afghanistan before 911?
China’s Vessel-state in the Qing Dynasty 19th Century: Sphere of Interest between
Russia (North) and Britain (South)
Soviet Occupation (1979-1989)
1973: Deposition of Zahir Shah Civil War between Various Parties (Eth
nic Minorities, Islamists & Communists) 1978: USSR Sponsored a Coup 1979: Iranian Revolution
Rise of Islamist Movement 1979: Counter-Coup in Afghanistan
Fall of Communist Regime Soviet Invasion under Brezhnev Execution of the Counter-Coup Leader Ami
n Guerilla Resistance Never Stopped
The Afghan Proxy War?
Not a Proxy War at the Beginning: Afghan Guerillas backed by Fell
ow Islamic Countries in the Counter-coup
After the Soviet Invasion: Mujahideen (Afghan Soldiers of
the God, inc. Taliban and Laden) became an Anti-Communist Slogan
Backed by Anti-Soviet Powers (USA, NATO, China)
Backed by Islamic Powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan)
All the Laden Allies! Western Technologies Islamic Ideologies
The Soviet Failure
International Backing of Mujahideen International Embargo The 1980 Moscow Olympic Games
Local Geography and Tactics Over-conscious in the American Pr
eparation Tactical Failure
Military Vs Economic Aggression Imperial Overreach of USSR
End of Détente in the Cold War Analogy of Computer War Games
1989: Soviet Withdrawal, as USSR was Collapsing
PART III First Wave of
Anti-Terrorism:Why Afghanistan?
The Taliban Regime (1996-2001)
Warlord Era (1989-1996) Taliban = “students” of Islamic Fundam
entalism Pushtun, the Largest Tribe in Afghanistan Strict Disciplines, Committed Ideology Conquered Kabul & 90% of Land at 1996
Legitimate Regime in Afghanistan (1996-2001) The True Taliban and the Opportunist Talib
an Foreign Allies:
Taught and Trained by Pakistan Economically Sponsored by KSA, UAE (the
only 3 Countries Recognized Taliban Before 911)
Leader: Mullah Omar, Mutawakki, Zaeef
When Taliban turned Extremist
Arrival of Osama Bin Laden The Puritan Dictatorship of Islam Sacred Plan to Destroy Buddhis
m Destruction of Buddhist Statutes of
Bamyan Loss of Anti-American Sympathy The Chinese “Rebirth” Proposal
Any Credit? The Cruel Stability The Taliban Talk on Campus
Osama Bin Laden & Mullah Omar
Partnership During the War against USSR
Assistance of Laden to Taliban Public Administration Expert Money from KSA Stronger Ideological Control Kabul as a Terrorist Base?
Symbiotic Relationship or Mere Guest? The American Argument The Taliban Argument
Bush Doctrine and Afghanistan Bush Doctrine: Tailor-made for Taliban:
“Those harboring terrorists will be treated as terrorists”
Against any Proxies for Taliban Laden = Chief Suspect of Terrorism
Taliban “Hosting” Laden
Taliban = Chief Suspect of Terrorism as well
Must NOT be a Proxy War
Rationales Beneath the Table? Long-term Planning Conspiracy
Theory? Lack of Knowledge in USA on
Afghanistan Before 911 Vs Long-planned War against Iraq Afghanistan = Route to Oil Only, not
Oil Immediate Planning?
Embarrassment of “No Enemies” If Laden escaped elsewhere with no
evidence to show his existence, what might America bomb? How could they react?
Strategic Planning of Restructuring Regional Order was only Added During the War
The Sudden Collapse of Taliban
The “War” (Oct – Dec 2002) Expected Duration:
10 Years (Example of the Last Superpower: USSR)
2 Months for USA Reasons behind the Sudden Collapse
Military Reasons: US Technology Assistance of the Northern Alliance Bribery of the Pushtun Leaders in Taliban Retreat of KSA/ UAE Money The Great Betrayal of Pakistan
Anything Else?! – the Rebirth of Taliban in the Future?
PART IV Impacts
of the War
Assigned Readings
Main Text: William Maley: “The Reconstruction of
Afghanistan” (B&D P.184-193) Supplementary Text:
Milton Bearden. “Graveyard of Empire” (H&R P.83-96).
CNN’s The History of Afghanistan. http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trade.center/afghanistan.timeline/index.html
The New Order in Afghanistan
Coalition Government under Hamid Karzai
Deposed Zahir Shah as the “Symbolic Supreme Leader”
Convention of Loya Jirga Introduction of “Reforms” Complete Disappearance of
Taliban, Mullah Omar and Osama Bin Laden?!
Assessing the American Success in terms of Anti-terrorism
Eradication of a Terrorist Base YES Eradication of Al-Qaeda? NO Capture of Laden, Life or Dead? NO International Sympathy:
Shifting from the American side to the Arabic side
More Terrorist Attacks after 911: Indonesia, Russia, Kenya, Philippines If Afghanistan was not attacked, will there be
more attacks or less? Safer or more dangerous?
Assessing the American Success in terms of
Establishing a New Regional Order American Grand Oil Plan?
Central Asian Republics Afghanistan Iraq Turkey Black Sea USA? Yes
Retreat of Russian and Islamic Influence in Afghanistan? Not Sure
Afghanistan became an “American Lake” Starting Point to Expand in the Region
Domino Effects Bush’s Attempt to Create “More Afghani
stans” Neighboring Countries Wary of their Ea
sy Collapses
The Transition of American Policies
Before the War against Taliban More Cautious, More Strategic
After the East Victory More Ambitious, More
Barbaric
Boom Vs Doom in the New Afghanistan
Impacts on Afghanistan: The Bright Side
Freedom of Women Sima Samar: Deputy Premier of
Afghanistan Education for All Students “Human” Entertainment
The Afghani National Soccer Team in the Asian Olympic Games
International Attention: the Chance to Raise Donation…
Impacts on Afghanistan:The Doom Side
Return to the Warlord Era Urban Order Vs Rural Disorder Assassinations of Ministers Assassination Attempts against President Karza
i Continuation of Poverty
Still the “Opium Empire” A “Full” American Protégé:
Personal Guards of Hamid Karzal – Who Are They?
Who are Maintaining Order at Kabul? Or, is America being “Used” as a “Barbarian” ag
ainst the “Barbaric” Taliban?
PART V Conclusion –
What is the Name of the War?
Name of the War…
“War of Anti-Terrorism”? (USA)
“War of American Imperialism”? (Laden)
“War of American Conspiracy”? (Conspiracy Theory)
“War of Afghani Rebirth”? (US Humanitarians)
Name of the War (II)…
“Civil War assisted by the American Follies”? (Northern Alliance)
“War of the nth Anti-aggression Campaign of Afghanistan”? (Afghan history)
War of No Meanings? What is the Name of the War agai
nst Iraq?
~~The End~~
Thank you for attending