Released June 30, 2017 ISSN 0799-3927

NOTIFICATIONS-

All clinical

sites

INVESTIGATION

REPORTS- Detailed Follow

up for all Class One Events

HOSPITAL ACTIVE

SURVEILLANCE-30

sites*. Actively pursued

SENTINEL

REPORT- 79 sites*.

Automatic reporting

*Incidence/Prevalence cannot be calculated

1

Week ending June 17, 2017 Epidemiology Week 24

WEEKLY EPIDEMIOLOGY BULLETIN NATIONAL EPIDEMIOLOGY UNIT, MINISTRY OF HEALTH, JAMAICA

Weekly Spotlight

EPI WEEK 24

1. Countries have an obligation to develop appropriate, feasible, sustainable public health surveillance systems. Surveillance systems should have a clear purpose and a plan for data collection, analysis, use and dissemination 2. Countries have an obligation to develop appropriate, effective mechanisms to ensure ethical surveillance 3. Surveillance data should be collected only for a legitimate public health purpose. 4. Countries have an obligation to ensure that the data collected are of suffi cient quality, including being timely, reliable and valid, to achieve public health goals. 5. Planning for public health surveillance should be guided by transparent governmental priority-setting.

Downloaded from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/255721/1/9789241512657-

eng.pdf?ua=1

SYNDROMES

PAGE 2

CLASS 1 DISEASES

PAGE 4

INFLUENZA

PAGE 5

DENGUE FEVER

PAGE 6

GASTROENTERITIS

PAGE 7

RESEARCH PAPER

PAGE 8

Released June 30, 2017 ISSN 0799-3927

NOTIFICATIONS-

All clinical

sites

INVESTIGATION

REPORTS- Detailed Follow

up for all Class One Events

HOSPITAL ACTIVE

SURVEILLANCE-30

sites*. Actively pursued

SENTINEL

REPORT- 79 sites*.

Automatic reporting

*Incidence/Prevalence cannot be calculated

2

REPORTS FOR SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE FEVER Temperature of >380C /100.40F (or recent history of fever) with or without an obvious diagnosis or focus of infection.

KEY RED CURRENT WEEK

FEVER AND NEUROLOGICAL Temperature of >380C /100.40F (or recent history of fever) in a previously healthy person with or without headache and vomiting. The person must also have meningeal irritation, convulsions, altered consciousness, altered sensory manifestations or paralysis (except AFP).

FEVER AND HAEMORRHAGIC Temperature of >380C /100.40F (or recent history of fever) in a previously healthy person presenting with at least one haemorrhagic (bleeding) manifestation with or without jaundice.

50

500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Nu

mb

er

of

Cas

es

Epidemiology Weeks

Fever in under 5y.o. and Total Population 2017 vs Epidemic Thresholds, Epidemiology Week 24

Total Fever (all ages) Cases under 5 y.o.<5y.o. Epi Threshold All Ages Epi Threshold

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Nu

mb

er

of

Cas

es

Epidemilogy Weeks

Fever and Neurological Symptoms Weekly Threshold vs Cases 2017, Epidemiology Week 24

2017 Epi threshold

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Nu

mb

er

of

Cas

es

Epidemiology Weeks

Fever and Haem Weekly Threshold vs Cases 2017, Epidemiology Week 24

Cases 2017 Epi threshold

Released June 30, 2017 ISSN 0799-3927

NOTIFICATIONS-

All clinical

sites

INVESTIGATION

REPORTS- Detailed Follow

up for all Class One Events

HOSPITAL ACTIVE

SURVEILLANCE-30

sites*. Actively pursued

SENTINEL

REPORT- 79 sites*.

Automatic reporting

*Incidence/Prevalence cannot be calculated

3

FEVER AND JAUNDICE Temperature of >380C /100.40F (or recent history of fever) in a previously healthy person presenting with jaundice.

ACCIDENTS Any injury for which the cause is unintentional, e.g. motor vehicle, falls, burns, etc.

VIOLENCE Any injury for which the cause is intentional, e.g. gunshot wounds, stab wounds, etc.

The epidemic threshold is

used to confirm the

emergence of an epidemic

so as to step-up appropriate

control measures.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Nu

mb

er

of

Cas

es

Epidemiology Weeks

Fever and Jaundice Weekly Threshold vs Cases 2017, Epidemiology Week 24

Cases 2017 Epi threshold

50

500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Nu

mb

er

of

Cas

es

Epidemiology Weeks

Accidents Weekly Threshold vs Cases 2017

≥5 Cases 2016 <5 Cases 2016 Epidemic Threshold<5 Epidemic Threshold≥5

1

10

100

1000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Nu

mb

er

of

Cas

es

Epidemiology Week

Violence Weekly Threshold vs Cases 2017

≥5 y.o <5 y.o <5 Epidemic Threshold ≥5 Epidemic Threshold

Released June 30, 2017 ISSN 0799-3927

NOTIFICATIONS-

All clinical

sites

INVESTIGATION

REPORTS- Detailed Follow

up for all Class One Events

HOSPITAL ACTIVE

SURVEILLANCE-30

sites*. Actively pursued

SENTINEL

REPORT- 79 sites*.

Automatic reporting

*Incidence/Prevalence cannot be calculated

4

CLASS ONE NOTIFIABLE EVENTS Comments

CONFIRMED YTD AFP Field Guides

from WHO

indicate that for an

effective

surveillance

system, detection

rates for AFP

should be

1/100,000

population under

15 years old (6 to

7) cases annually.

___________

Pertussis-like

syndrome and

Tetanus are

clinically

confirmed

classifications.

______________

The TB case

detection rate

established by

PAHO for Jamaica

is at least 70% of

their calculated

estimate of cases in

the island, this is

180 (of 200) cases

per year.

*Data not available

______________

1 Dengue Hemorrhagic

Fever data include

Dengue related deaths;

2 Maternal Deaths

include early and late

deaths.

CLASS 1 EVENTS CURRENT

YEAR PREVIOUS

YEAR

NA

TIO

NA

L /

INT

ER

NA

TIO

NA

L

INT

ER

ES

T

Accidental Poisoning 49 79

Cholera 0 0

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever1 0 0

Hansen’s Disease (Leprosy) 0 0

Hepatitis B 14 14

Hepatitis C 2 4

HIV/AIDS - See HIV/AIDS National Programme Report

Malaria (Imported) 2 1

Meningitis ( Clinically confirmed) 19 32

EXOTIC/

UNUSUAL Plague 0 0

H I

GH

MO

RB

IDIT

/

MO

RT

AL

IY

Meningococcal Meningitis 0 0

Neonatal Tetanus 0 0

Typhoid Fever 0 0

Meningitis H/Flu 0 0

SP

EC

IAL

PR

OG

RA

MM

ES

AFP/Polio 0 0

Congenital Rubella Syndrome 0 0

Congenital Syphilis 0 0

Fever and

Rash

Measles 0 0

Rubella 0 0

Maternal Deaths2 16 25

Ophthalmia Neonatorum 101 200

Pertussis-like syndrome 0 0

Rheumatic Fever 3 6

Tetanus 1 0

Tuberculosis 0 11

Yellow Fever 0 0

Chikungunya 0 0

Zika Virus 0 56

Released June 30, 2017 ISSN 0799-3927

NOTIFICATIONS-

All clinical

sites

INVESTIGATION

REPORTS- Detailed Follow

up for all Class One Events

HOSPITAL ACTIVE

SURVEILLANCE-30

sites*. Actively pursued

SENTINEL

REPORT- 79 sites*.

Automatic reporting

*Incidence/Prevalence cannot be calculated

5

NATIONAL SURVEILLANCE UNIT INFLUENZA REPORT EW 24

June 11- June 17, 2017 Epidemiology Week 24

June 2017

EW 24 YTD

SARI cases 5 245

Total Influenza

positive Samples

2 26

Influenza A 0 0

H3N2 0 0

H1N1pdm09 0 0

Not subtyped 0 0

Influenza B 4 26

Other 0 0

Comments:

During EW 23, SARI activity

slightly decreased and was below

the average epidemic curve.

During EW 23, SARI cases were

most frequently reported among

children between 0-4 years of

age.

During EW 23, few influenza

detections were reported, with

increased activity (40%

positivity) and influenza B

predominating.

INDICATORS

Burden

Year to date, respiratory

syndromes account for 4.4% of

visits to health facilities.

Incidence

Cannot be calculated, as data

sources do not collect all cases

of Respiratory illness.

Prevalence

Not applicable to acute

respiratory conditions.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Nu

mb

er o

f C

ases

Epi Weeks

Fever and Respiratory 2017

<5 5-59≥60 <5 years epidemic threshold5 to 59 years epidemic threshold ≥60 years epidemic threshold

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f p

osi

tive

s

Nu

mb

er

of

po

siti

ve s

amp

les

Distribution of Influenza and other respiratory viruses among SARI cases by EW surveillance

EW 24, 2017, NIC Jamaica

A(H1N1)pdm09 A not subtyped A no subtypable A(H1)A(H3) Flu B Parainfluenza RSVAdenovirus Methapneumovirus Rhinovirus CoronavirusBocavirus Others % Positives

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Per

cen

tage

of

SAR

I cas

es

Epidemiological Week

Jamaica: Percentage of Hospital Admissions for Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI 2017) (compared with 2011-2016)

SARI 2017Average epidemic curve (2011-2016)Alert ThresholdSeasonal Trend

Released June 30, 2017 ISSN 0799-3927

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up for all Class One Events

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sites*. Actively pursued

SENTINEL

REPORT- 79 sites*.

Automatic reporting

*Incidence/Prevalence cannot be calculated

6

Dengue Bulletin June 11- June 17, 2017 Epidemiology Week 24

DISTRIBUTION

Year-to-Date Suspected Dengue Fever

M F Un-

known Total %

<1 2 0 0 2 4

1-4 2 2 0 4 8

5-14 5 7 0 12 24

15-24 5 4 0 9 18

25-44 9 5 1 15 30

45-64 2 4 0 6 12

≥65 0 0 0 0 0 Unknown 1 1 0 2 4

TOTAL 26 23 1 50 100

Weekly Breakdown of suspected and

confirmed cases of DF,DHF,DSS,DRD

2017

2016 YTD EW

24 YTD

Total Suspected

Dengue Cases 0 48 1366

Lab Confirmed Dengue cases

0 2 104

CO

NFI

RM

ED

DHF/DSS 0 0 3

Dengue Related Deaths

0 0 0

0

50

100

150

200

1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153

No

. of

Cas

esEpidemeology Weeks

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0.0 0.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

0.0 0.1

0.50.9 0.9

0.30.0

2.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Susp

ecte

d C

ases

(P

er

100,

000

Po

pu

lati

on

)

Suspected Dengue Fever Cases per 100,000 Parish Population

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Nu

mb

er

of

Cas

es

Years

Dengue Cases by Year: 2007-2017, Jamaica

Confirmed DF Total suspected

Released June 30, 2017 ISSN 0799-3927

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SENTINEL

REPORT- 79 sites*.

Automatic reporting

*Incidence/Prevalence cannot be calculated

7

Gastroenteritis Bulletin June 11- June 17, 2017 Epidemiology Week 24

Year EW 24 YTD

<5 ≥5 Total <5 ≥5 Total

2017 122 188 310 5,236 5,830 11,066

2016 160 321 481 3,538 5,554 9,092

Figure 1: Total Gastroenteritis Cases Reported 2016-2017

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Nu

mb

er o

f C

ases

Epidemiology Weeks

Gastroenteritis Epidemic Threshold vs Cases 2017

<5 Cases ≥5 Cases Epi threshold <5 Epi threshold ≥5

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

KSA STT POR STM STA TRE STJ HAN WES STE MAN CLA STC

Suspected GE Cases < 5 yrs/ 100 000 pop 233.5 187.4 134.1 206.7 217.5 247.2 133.7 195.4 157.4 65.4 179.8 124.6 59.0

Suspected GE cases ≥5yrs/ 100 000 pop 140.8 204.8 227.2 307.5 316.3 332.1 188.9 239.0 227.2 125.9 231.1 198.4 70.2

Highest number of cases < 5 /100,000 pop 0

Highest number of cases ≥ 5/100,000 pop 0

Susp

ecte

d C

ases

(P

er 1

00

,00

0 P

op

ula

tio

n) Suspected Gastroenteritis Cases per 100,000 Parish Population

Trelawny reported thehighest number of GEcases per 100,000 intheir 5 years old andover population

Trelawny reported thehighest number of GEcases per 100,000 intheir under 5 yearsold population

EW

24 Weekly Breakdown of Gastroenteritis cases Gastroenteritis:

In Epidemiology Week 24, 2017, the

total number of reported GE cases

showed an 4% decrease compared to EW

24 of the previous year.

The year to date figure showed a 25%

increase in cases for the period.

Released June 30, 2017 ISSN 0799-3927

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HOSPITAL ACTIVE

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sites*. Actively pursued

SENTINEL

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Automatic reporting

*Incidence/Prevalence cannot be calculated

8

RESEARCH PAPER

Estimating Cost Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination or Pap Smear Expansion or VIA Screening

Introduction By Using the CERVIVAC Model J Barnett, K Lewis-Bell

Ministry of Health, Jamaica

Objective: To examine the potential costs, health benefits and value for money (e.g. cost per DALY saved

primarily) of introducing the HPV vaccination for a cohort of girls entering high school; or expanding pap smear

screening; or introduction of Visual Inspection with Acetic Acid (VIA) screening method.

Method: Analysis was conducted using a prospective cohort-based model (CERIVAC) which incorporated meta-

analysis to project the changes in the natural history of the disease based on the intervention’s scale and scope.

Information required related to demographics and system costs and structure for each intervention.

Results: The VIA programme produced the highest cost-effectiveness result i.e. lowest cost per DALY averted,

from the government and society perspective, US$75 and US$4,212 respectively. Societal, the least cost effective

was the expanded pap smear screening option US$6,773.00 (US$2,094.00 – government). Cost per DALY

averted for the vaccination intervention were US$5,360 and US$5,313 respectively and it produced the highest

number of DALYs averted. Notwithstanding, the results of an incremental cost effectiveness analysis between

VIA and vaccination supports the clear dominance of the former.

Conclusion: Using the WHO classification as our proxy income threshold, VIA (US$75 and US$4,212) is less

than the country’s GDP per capita (US$4,471), thus it is highly cost effective and a justifiable investment for the

country. Therefore on the basis of technical efficiency alone, Jamaica should select the VIA option.

The Ministry of Health

24-26 Grenada Crescent

Kingston 5, Jamaica

Tele: (876) 633-7924

Email: surveillance@moh.gov.jm