week in review · the weekly jobless claims report revealed initial claims rising 3k to 254k (below...

September 30, 2016

Week in review

Canada – Real GDP surged 0.5% in July, much better

than the 0.3% gain expected by consensus. Goods producing industries saw a 1% increase in output, with gains for manufacturing, oil and gas, utilities, and agriculture offsetting declines for mining and construction (particularly in the residential sector). Thanks to gains in the goods sector, industrial production soared 1.6%. Goods sector output is now the highest in five months. Oil production is now higher than it was just before the Fort McMurray wildfires, and just slightly below January’s all-time high. The services sector's output rose 0.3% with broad-based private sector gains (including wholesaling and retailing), which dwarfed declines in public administration.

The cheap Canadian dollar’s benefits are also visible. Besides factory output, which remains close to multi-year highs thanks to strengthening exports, the surge in accommodation/food services output to a new record is likely linked to tourism. The latter explains in part the resilience of the services sector where output is at an all-time high. It’s also encouraging to see retailing remaining strong as that points to the resilience of Canada’s main engine of growth, i.e. consumers. The implementation of

enhanced Canada Child Benefits in July likely helped somewhat. All told, thanks to a good handoff from June and July’s output surge, real GDP is on track to grow more than 3% annualized in Q3, i.e. more than making up for the prior quarter’s output decline. The Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), a survey of establishments (unlike the Labour Force Survey which surveys households), showed a decline of 2K jobs in July, following a massive 72K rise in the prior month. In the first 7 months of the year, the SEPH averaged +14K jobs/month, significantly above the LFS’s paid component showing an average 8K increase. Alberta is struggling on a year-to-date basis (-43K) while BC (+27K), Quebec (+52K) and Ontario (+71K) are posting healthy gains. Weekly earnings dropped 0.2% in July allowing the year-on-year wage growth to fall to just 0.1%.

United States – The Conference Board’s consumer

confidence index jumped to 104.1 in September, the highest since the recession. The increase in confidence was due to perceptions about both economic prospects and the present situation, both sub-indices at multi-month highs. Consumers were more optimistic than in the prior month about prospects for employment. They were, however, less enthusiastic about buying homes and major appliances compared to the prior month. Markit’s flash/preliminary estimate of the services purchasing managers index rose to a five-month high of 51.9 in September. While new orders continued to rise, the rate of growth softened. Ditto for employment whose growth was the weakest in three-and-a-half years. Inflation pressures also diminished as “a number of firms reported having lowered their charges in an effort to try and secure more new business.” The weekly jobless claims report revealed initial claims rising 3K to 254K (below consensus who were expecting 260k) for the week ending on the 24th of September. The more reliable 4-week moving average edged down to 256K, a 2.25K decrease from the previous week’s revised average. Initial claims have been under the 300k mark for 82 consecutive weeks, unequaled since 1970. Continuing claims for the prior week (September 17th) fell 46K to 2.062 million. This is the lowest level of insured unemployment since July 2000. Personal income rose 0.2% in August while personal spending was flat. As a result, the savings rate rose to 5.7%. In

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Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16

m/m % chg.

Canada: Output rose again in JulyReal GDP by industry

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada)

3-month annualized (R)

%

Monthly change (L)

What we’ll be watching (p. 3) Calendar of upcoming releases (p. 5) Annex – Economic tables (A1)

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

2

real terms, spending fell 0.1% while disposable income rose 0.1% in the month. The drop in real consumption has to be looked at in context because that comes after solid gains the prior month. Even assuming no change in September, real consumption is on track to grow a decent 2.4% annualized in Q3. And with the savings rate rising to a three-month high, consumption growth has room to run in the final quarter of the year. The PCE deflator increased 0.1% in August, causing the year-on-year rate to rise two ticks to 1%. The core PCE deflator, which is closely watched by the Fed to gauge inflation pressures, was up 0.2%, allowing the annual core rate to increase to a six-month high of 1.7%. The Fed will welcome the increase in the core PCE annual inflation rate towards its 2% target and will probably lean on this for hiking the fed funds rate in December. But this seems to be a temporary jump in core prices driven by medical care. In other words, the annual core inflation rate may eventually fall back and, more importantly, remain well below the Fed’s target. That is why we anticipate a long pause after a likely December hike. The durables goods report showed new orders remaining unchanged in August, much better than the 1.5% drop expected than consensus. However, the prior month was revised down to 3.6% (from +4.4%). The pleasant surprise in August was the transportation category which managed to see a 0.6% increase in orders despite the expected slump for civilian aircrafts. As it turns out, orders of autos and defense equipment were quite good. Excluding transportation, orders fell 0.4%, roughly in line with consensus. Total shipments of non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft, a proxy for business investment spending, fell for the fourth consecutive month. That suggests business investment remained weak in Q3.

New home sales fell in August to 609K at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, but is about 21% above year-ago levels. That represents a supply of 4.6 months at current sales rate. The median sale price fell to $284,000. Resale home prices fell for the fourth month in a row according to the 20-city Case-Shiller home price index which was down 0.01% on a seasonally-adjusted basis in July. That caused the 20-city annual home price inflation rate to fall to 5%, the lowest in a year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ third estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at 1.4% annualized, up from the advance estimate of 1.1%. The major sources of the upgrade were exports, imports, non-residential investment and inventories which more than offset downgrades to consumption and government consumption. Real final sales growth (GDP excluding inventories) was revised up two ticks to 2.6%.

World – Japan’s retail spending was down 1.2% on a year-

on-year basis in August.


What we’ll be watching

3

In Canada, all eyes will be on the Labour Force Survey this week. Economic growth seems to have strengthened in Q3 and employment creation, which is contemporaneously correlated with real GDP

growth, should accordingly bounce back in the quarter. Roughly 15K net new jobs may have been created in September which would take the overall tally for the quarter into positive territory. We’re expecting employment strength in cyclical sectors such as construction and manufacturing, and a rebound in professional services employment after the prior month’s outsized decline. The overall employment gains could allow the jobless rate to fall one tick to 6.9%. The merchandise trade deficit may have improved to around C$2.2 bn in August as exports continue to recover after Q2’s slump. On Friday, the Bank of Canada releases its Business Outlook and Senior Loan Officer surveys. The results of those surveys will provide the latest information on business intentions with regards to investment and hiring, and the ease of access to credit, all of which may give some clues about the central bank’s stance when it presents its Monetary Policy Report later in October.

In the U.S., Friday’s non farm payrolls for September will be the highlight of the week. While the rate of layoffs fell in the month (based on weekly initial jobless claims), that doesn’t guarantee a blockbuster report for

non-farm payrolls. True, job openings are at all-time highs, but weak productivity and declining corporate profits may have convinced some employers to delay hiring. We’re expecting non-farm payrolls to rise about 165K, an improvement from the prior month, but well below the earlier trend. A similar increase is likely for the household survey, although that should not change the unemployment rate much from the current 4.9%, particularly if the participation rate continues to rise. If the Empire and Philly indices of manufacturing activity are any guide, the ISM’s manufacturing index for September is unlikely to show much of an improvement after falling below 50 the prior month. Factory orders may have fallen in August based on the soft durable goods report, while the trade deficit for the same month could widen a bit due to better imports. The Fed’s Loretta Mester (who voted for a rate hike in September) and Lael Brainard (who voted with the majority for no hike) are scheduled to give speeches on Friday.

Previous NBF forecastsLFS employment (September m/m chg.) 26.2K 15KUnemployment rate (September) 7.0% 6.9%

Merchandise trade balance (August) -C$2.5 B -C$2.2 B

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Canada: Did employment rebound extend to September?Employment according to the Labour Force Survey

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada) NBF forecast

12-month average

m/m chg. thousands

Previous NBF forecastsNon farm payrolls (September m/m chg.) 151K 165KUnemployment rate (September) 4.9% 4.9%

ISM manufacturing (September) 49.4 49.5

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U.S.: A likely pick up in the pace of employment creation in SeptemberNon-farm payrolls (employment) and the jobless rate

m/m chg. thousands

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Datastream) NBF forecasts

%

Jobless rate (R)

Employment (L)


What we’ll be watching

4

Elsewhere around the world, August data on the eurozone’s producer price indices and retail sales will be available this week. Markit will release manufacturing purchasing managers indices for September for several emerging economies.

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Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

9:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep F 51.40 51.40

10:00 US Construction Spending MoM Aug 0.00% 0.30%

10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Sep 49.4 50.5 49.5

Novagold Resources Inc Aft-mkt Q3 2016 -0.02

Darden Restaurants Inc Bef-mkt Q1 2017 0.82

Micron Technology Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2016 -0.10

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep-30 -0.70% -- Jean Coutu Group PJC Inc/The 7:00 Q2 2017 0.26

8:15 US ADP Employment Change Sep 177k 165k Constellation Brands Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2017 1.65

8:30 US Trade Balance Aug -$39.5b -$40.8b -$42.0b Global Payments Inc Bef-mkt Q1 2017 0.83

8:30 CA Int'l Merchandise Trade Aug -2.49b -- -2.20b Monsanto Co 8:00 Q4 2016 -0.01

9:45 US Markit US Services PMI Sep F 51.9 52.0 Yum! Brands Inc Aft-mkt Q3 2016 1.09

10:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep 51.4 53.0 52.0 Acuity Brands Inc 0:00 Q4 2016 2.39

10:00 US Factory Orders Aug 1.90% -0.40% -0.50%

10:00 US Durable Goods Orders Aug F 0.00% --

10:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Aug F -0.40% --

8:30 CA Building Permits MoM Aug 0.80% --

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-01 254k 255k

8:30 CA Unemployment Rate Sep 7.00% -- 6.90%

8:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 151k 170k 165k

8:30 CA Net Change in Employment Sep 26.2k -- 15.0k

8:30 US Unemployment Rate Sep 4.90% 4.90% 4.90%

10:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA Sep 52.3 --

10:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Aug -0.40% --

15:00 US Consumer Credit Aug $17.713b $17.000b

Source: Bloomberg

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Oct 7

Wednesday

Oct 5

Thursday

Oct 6

Friday

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

Oct 3

Monday

Tuesday

Oct 4

Earnings announcements

Economic calendar - Canada & U.S.

Country Release NBF Estimate

Company Time Qtr


Annex - Economic tables

September 30, 2016Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 * Aug 2016 3317 2.8 -0.1 0.2 10.0 9.8 9.1 6.4 8.1

M2 * Aug 2016 13008 0.9 0.6 0.6 8.2 7.8 7.5 6.6 5.8CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit July 2016 3661 0.5 0.4 0.6 6.8 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.9Mortgage (Banks) * Aug 2016 4051 0.5 0.7 0.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 6.8 3.9Business * Aug 2016 2059 -0.3 0.4 0.3 4.9 10.9 8.5 9.9 11.6

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross June 2016 1813 0.4 0.6 0.6 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.1 4.4Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) July 2016 892 0.6 0.5 0.2 6.1 8.2 7.6 6.8 3.4

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer June 2016 556 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.7 2.3 2.7 2.5 3.1Mortgages June 2016 1396 0.5 0.4 0.4 5.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.5Short - Term Business Loans May 2016 499 0.6 1.4 -0.1 9.4 10.3 11.5 11.4 9.1Business (S.T. + L.T.) July 2016 1801 1.0 0.6 0.5 5.5 4.4 5.3 5.4 8.4Private (Consumer+Business) June 2016 3736 0.5 0.5 0.3 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.5Gov. of Canada securities outstanding July 2016 688 1.7 -1.0 1.3 9.4 2.8 3.9 3.9 -0.4

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 29 Sept 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.45 0.50 0.50 0.25Prime Rate * 29 Sept 16 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.45 3.50 3.50 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 29 Sept 16 0.26 0.18 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.26 0.21 -0.022-year Bonds * 29 Sept 16 0.74 0.78 0.74 0.72 0.74 0.79 0.58 0.75 0.615-year Bonds * 29 Sept 16 1.11 1.17 1.19 1.12 1.18 1.32 1.00 1.21 1.3710-year Bonds * 29 Sept 16 1.56 1.63 1.70 1.56 1.65 1.85 1.49 1.78 2.0430-year Bonds * 29 Sept 16 2.27 2.35 2.47 2.28 2.42 2.63 2.31 2.62 2.85Corp. High-yield (BofA ML Master II) * 29 Sept 16 6.66 6.72 6.87 6.89 7.37 8.05 7.55 8.58 8.28Corp. Invest. Grade (BofA ML Corp. BBB) * 29 Sept 16 3.28 3.33 3.39 3.33 3.51 3.89 3.48 3.89 4.15

SpreadCorp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 29 Sept 16 5.11 5.08 5.17 5.34 5.72 6.20 6.06 6.80 6.24Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 29 Sept 16 1.73 1.70 1.69 1.77 1.86 2.04 1.98 2.10 2.10Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 29 Sept 16 2.01 2.17 2.18 1.99 2.15 2.39 2.05 2.41 2.87

EXCHANGE RATEFED Broad (Jan 97 = 100) * 23 Sept 16 122.07 121.61 122.34 121.17 120.85 121.46 121.84 120.04 119.61

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 29 Sept 16 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70Target overnight rate * 29 Sept 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5030-day commercial paper * 29 Sept 16 0.87 0.84 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.90 0.803-month Treasury Bills * 29 Sept 16 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.48 0.49 0.44 0.431-year Treasury Bills * 29 Sept 16 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.495-year Bonds * 29 Sept 16 0.57 0.69 0.73 0.64 0.68 0.71 0.62 0.66 0.8110-year Bonds * 29 Sept 16 0.95 1.10 1.20 1.05 1.17 1.26 1.12 1.22 1.4530-year Bonds * 29 Sept 16 1.63 1.73 1.84 1.67 1.80 1.97 1.76 2.00 2.21SPREADSPrime - 30d. Commercial paper * 29 Sept 16 1.83 1.86 1.83 1.83 1.82 1.83 1.83 1.80 1.90Long Term - Short Term * 29 Sept 16 1.12 1.22 1.33 1.17 1.30 1.49 1.27 1.56 1.78

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS3-month T-Bills * 29 Sept 16 0.25 0.33 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.45Long Term Bonds * 29 Sept 16 -0.65 -0.62 -0.63 -0.61 -0.62 -0.66 -0.55 -0.62 -0.64

EXCHANGE RATEUS$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 29 Sept 16 0.7609 0.7668 0.7598 0.7682 0.7722 0.7563 0.7737 0.7689 0.7537Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 29 Sept 16 89.0 89.4 88.7 89.6 90.0 88.5 89.8 90.3 88.7

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%)Reference Past Prev. Month Year-to-dateThursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 29 Sept 16 18143.5 -1.9 0.4 4.2 2.5 2.9 13.0 2.4 -11.0S&P 500 (U.S.) * 29 Sept 16 2151.1 -1.3 0.3 5.0 3.9 4.7 14.2 3.5 -9.9NASDAQ (U.S.) * 29 Sept 16 5269.2 0.7 1.4 8.0 10.3 8.7 16.6 3.2 -6.0S&P/TSX (Can.) * 29 Sept 16 14754.6 0.5 0.7 3.9 5.1 9.9 13.2 11.4 -11.1

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted (3) compared to same period of the preceeding year,Source: Thomson Reuthers Datastream unless otherwise stated

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS

A1


Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (9)

Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators Aug 2016 -0.2 0.5 0.2 2.3 0.9 1.9 1.1 1.4 5.0Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) * Sept 2016 104.1 101.8 96.7 100.9 97.9 96.9 102.6 97.2 98.6I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Aug 2016 49.4 52.6 53.2 51.7 51.5 50.2 51.0 50.9 52.5

Aug 2016 51.8 59.3 59.5 56.9 57.4 58.1 62.3 57.0 61.1

DOMESTIC DEMANDSales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Aug 2016 17.0 17.9 16.7 17.2 17.2 17.5 17.8 17.3 17.1Retail Sales Aug 2016 -0.3 0.1 0.7 4.8 2.7 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.4

- Motor vehicle Aug 2016 -0.9 1.7 0.5 7.9 -1.2 3.9 1.4 2.6 6.8- Other Aug 2016 -0.1 -0.4 0.8 4.0 3.7 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) * Aug 2016 0.0 0.4 0.5 -8.1 0.5 2.5 -7.0 2.2 3.8Total ($ constant) * Aug 2016 -0.1 0.3 0.4 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.4

Personal Income * Aug 2016 0.2 0.4 0.3 4.3 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.3 4.6Personal Savings Rate (3) * Aug 2016 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7New Orders July 2016 1.9 -1.8 -1.2 -0.2 -1.9 -4.2 -3.5 -3.3 -6.8

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft * Aug 2016 0.6 0.8 0.5 1.9 -5.2 -4.0 -3.1 -4.3 -2.9Unfilled Orders * July 2016 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 -3.5 -1.1 -2.3 -2.1 -2.0 3.9Business Inventories July 2016 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.9 2.7Inventories / Shipments Businesses July 2016 1.39 1.39 1.40 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.37 1.40 1.37Manufacturers' Shipments July 2016 -0.2 0.6 0.1 3.4 -2.3 -4.1 -3.0 -3.4 -3.9Manufacturers' Inventories July 2016 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.9 -3.0 -0.1Inventories / Shipments Manuf. July 2016 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.36Housing Starts (000) (1) Aug 2016 1142 1212 1195 1183 1158 1157 1132 1161 1088New Home Sales, single-family * Aug 2016 -7.6 13.8 2.3 48.6 34.8 10.6 20.6 13.0 19.0Existing Home Sales, s.f. & condos Aug 2016 -0.9 -3.4 1.1 -0.5 6.4 3.4 0.8 3.3 7.6

PRODUCTIONIndustrial Production Aug 2016 -0.5 0.6 0.6 3.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 1.1

- Consumer Goods Aug 2016 -0.2 0.4 0.7 4.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.7 1.7- Hitech goods Aug 2016 0.3 1.2 0.4 6.2 2.5 1.7 4.6 2.5 3.1

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCESExports July 2016 1.9 0.8 -0.1 7.0 -2.4 -5.7 -2.0 -4.8 -3.4Imports July 2016 -0.8 1.9 1.5 9.1 -2.9 -4.5 -1.8 -4.0 -2.6Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) July 2016 -39.5 -44.7 -42.0 -42.0 -41.2 -41.7 -39.9 -41.4 -41.5Real merchandise trade balance July 2016 -58.3 -64.5 -60.9 -61.2 -60.1 -60.4 -56.8 -60.3 -58.4Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) Aug 2016 -529.9 -487.2 -523.6 -424.2 -405.2 -353.3

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Aug 2016 0.2 0.0 0.2 2.2 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.0

- Excluding Food and Energy Aug 2016 0.3 0.1 0.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.8PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy * Aug 2016 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4Producer price index for final demand Aug 2016 0.0 -0.4 0.5 2.3 0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.7Average Hourly Earnings (4) Aug 2016 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.0Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Aug 2016 75.5 75.9 75.5 75.6 75.4 75.6 76.7 75.4 77.0Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Aug 2016 -1.2 -1.9 4.0 26.2 18.0 5.8 5.3 5.4 7.0

LABOUR MARKETNew Jobs (000) (6) Aug 2016 151 275 271 232 175 204 2447 1452 1749

- Manufacturing (000) Aug 2016 -14 6 8 0 -7 -3 -37 -39 24- Services (000) Aug 2016 175 264 276 238 189 201 2409 1530 1679

Average weekly hours (6) Aug 2016 -0.3 0.5 0.2 1.9 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.3Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Aug 2016 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.4

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q2 2015 2014 2013 2012Real GDP Chained 2009 dollars * 1.4 0.8 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.3Consumption * 4.3 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 1.5Residential Construction * -7.8 7.8 11.5 12.6 14.8 13.4 11.7 3.5 11.9Business Investment * 1.0 -3.4 -3.3 3.9 1.6 1.3 2.1 6.0 3.5

- Machinery and Equipment 4.1 11.8 -2.6 4.8 0.0 #VALUE! 6.9 0.0 #VALUE!Government Spending * -1.7 1.6 1.0 1.9 3.2 2.6 1.8 -0.9 -2.9Exports * 1.8 -0.7 -2.7 -2.8 2.8 -5.8 0.1 4.3 3.5Imports * 0.2 -0.6 0.7 1.1 2.9 5.6 4.6 4.4 1.1Change in Inventories (1) (2) * -9.5 40.7 56.9 70.9 93.8 114.4 84.0 57.7 78.7GDP Deflator 2.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.2 0.0 1.1 1.8 1.6Personal Disposable Income * 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.9 2.0 3.5 3.5 -1.4

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2014 2013 2012Labour Productivity (4) -0.6 -0.6 -2.4 2.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.3Unit Labor Costs (4) 4.3 -0.3 5.7 0.8 3.6 0.7 2.0 2.0 1.0

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2014 2013 2012Current Account (current $) -479.5 -527.4 -453.6 -492.4 -447.6 -458.2 -463.0 -392.1 -366.4

as a % of GDP * -2.6 -2.9 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2014 2013 2012

Corporate Profits (8) * -2.4 14.1 -22.3 -3.2 -11.4 -6.8 -3.0 5.9 1.7as a % of GDP 11.0 11.1 10.8 11.6 11.7 12.2 11.6 12.0 12.5

* Update Source: Thomson-Reuthers Datastream(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold (9) Compated to same period of the(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey preceeding year, unless otherwise(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey stated(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

- Non-manufacturing (level)

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS

September 30, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A2


TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSSeptember 30, 2016

Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (6)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 -1.3 3.7 -3.9 -2.0 11.8 -5.8 5.4 -3.8 -8.1

DOMESTIC DEMANDRetail Sales ($ current) July 2016 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.3 2.3 4.2 1.4

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers July 2016 -0.2 1.7 -2.3 -9.8 1.9 8.0 4.2 8.8 4.6- Other July 2016 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 4.7 3.3 1.7 1.7 2.7 1.3

Retail Sales ($ constant) July 2016 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.4

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) July 2016 0.1 0.8 -0.5 2.3 -3.8 -0.6 -2.6 0.2 -1.4New Orders July 2016 -2.9 0.7 1.9 23.7 -1.9 -2.7 -7.7 -1.5 -4.0

- Durables July 2016 -5.6 1.2 3.2 35.0 -0.8 -1.8 -11.0 -0.5 -1.8Unfilled Orders July 2016 -0.1 1.6 1.7 7.7 -9.5 -3.1 -6.2 -7.8 11.2Manufacturer's Inventories July 2016 1.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -4.4 0.7 -2.1 -1.0 1.1Inventories / Shipments Ratio July 2016 1.41 1.40 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.41 1.42Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) July 2016 0.6 0.3 -1.9 -1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 1.1 -0.3

Housing Starts (000) (1) Aug 2016 182.4 194.6 218.4 198.5 195.6 198.4 214.0 195.6 188.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -3.1 -1.3 -1.0 -12.2 8.4 7.0 1.3 8.0 5.7Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Sep 1900 -24.5 5.2 0.4 -43.1 4.8 -3.5 -18.3 -4.7 -0.2PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product * July 2016 0.5 0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0

- Manufacturing * July 2016 0.4 1.5 -2.0 -2.3 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.7- Construction * July 2016 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -5.2 -2.8 -4.8 -3.8 -3.8 -2.8

Services * July 2016 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCESExports July 2016 3.4 0.1 -0.8 -2.1 -11.2 -1.7 -7.0 -2.5 -0.7Imports July 2016 -0.1 0.8 -0.5 0.6 -4.4 1.1 -2.6 -0.2 5.5

- Capital Goods July 2016 -2.6 -1.7 -4.4 -12.0 -5.8 1.8 -8.4 -1.6 9.2Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) July 2016 -2,488 -3,966 -3,636 -3,363 -3,214 -2,449 -479 -2,853 -1,863Change in Official Reserves Aug 2016 852 -617 -777 -181 411 492 5,903 4,003 5,051

Level (US$): $83.8 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) June 2016 -8.0 -5.8 -3.8 8.9 -1.0 5.0

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Aug 2016 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.1

- Excluding Food and Energy Aug 2016 0.0 -0.1 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9- Core inflation (4) Aug 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.2

Average Hourly Earnings (2) Aug 2016 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -4.1 0.6 2.6 1.5 2.4 2.6Price of New Housing icluding land July 2016 0.4 0.1 0.7 4.6 2.6 1.9 2.8 2.2 1.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -2.6 -1.1 -0.3 -8.3 9.5 11.6 6.2 12.7 7.9Industrial Prices (1992=100) * Aug 2016 -0.5 0.2 0.8 5.8 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -0.9 -1.2

LABOUR MARKETLabour Force Aug 2016 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.9 0.7Job creation (000) Aug 2016 26.2 -31.2 -0.7 -1.9 7.8 6.5 77.4 38.6 116.6

- Manufacturing Aug 2016 2.9 5.6 -12.9 -1.5 -6.8 -1.4 -17.3 -43.9 10.8- Services Aug 2016 15.4 -26.9 45.5 11.3 23.1 10.1 121.3 113.7 164.8- Full Time Aug 2016 52.2 -71.4 -40.1 -19.8 5.7 -3.0 -35.7 -12.1 171.0- Part Time Aug 2016 -26.0 40.2 39.4 17.9 2.1 9.4 113.1 50.7 -54.4

Unemployment Rate Aug 2016 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013GDP Chained (2007) $ -1.6 2.5 0.5 2.2 -0.5 -1.0 1.1 2.5 2.2Household consumption 2.2 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.3 -0.1 1.9 2.6 2.4Business Investments, non-res., mach. & equip. -1.9 -8.1 -12.5 -11.4 -15.5 -23.2 -10.6 0.0 2.5

-Machinery and Equipment 1.9 -0.7 -8.1 -6.7 -15.7 -5.1 -2.4 1.0 -6.7Residential Construction 1.2 11.3 1.8 2.6 0.1 6.6 3.8 2.5 -0.4Government Expenditures 4.2 2.7 0.4 0.6 2.8 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.3Government Fixed Capital Formation 2.7 -1.3 -4.0 -1.6 -0.6 1.9 2.5 4.0 -6.4Final Domestic Demand 2.2 1.8 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -2.2 0.3 1.6 1.3Exports -16.7 8.0 -1.5 9.0 1.2 0.9 3.4 5.3 2.8Imports 1.1 1.6 -7.0 -2.8 -1.8 0.9 0.3 1.8 1.5Change in Inventories, chained (2007) $ (5) 0.5 -9.0 -5.6 -0.2 6.8 14.6 3.9 9.9 15.5Real Disposible Income 4.6 3.4 1.1 -2.6 7.4 0.8 2.6 1.2 3.4Personal savings Rate 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.2 5.4GDP Price Deflator 1.4 -1.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 -3.2 -0.5 1.7 1.6Corporate Profits (nominal) -33.0 -2.7 -19.1 -5.1 -2.6 -44.1 -15.8 7.0 0.8

as a % of GDP 9.8 10.9 11.0 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.6 13.8 13.5Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 80.0 81.4 80.9 81.2 80.2 81.4 80.9 82.1 80.8Labour Productivity, Business Sector -1.3 1.4 -0.1 0.6 -3.9 -2.7 -0.4 2.5 1.3Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector 3.0 -1.9 3.5 -1.5 2.2 5.7 1.9 1.1 1.6

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Current Account (current $) (5) -79.4 -66.4 -62.8 -61.8 -58.0 -67.9 -62.6 -44.9 -59.7

as a % of GDP -4.0 -3.3 -3.2 -3.1 -2.9 -3.4 -3.2 -2.3 -3.0

Sources: Thomson reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real Estate Association

* Update

(1) Annual Rate (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes

(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted (5) Annual rate, $ billions

(3) Current and before taxes (6) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated


Monthly Growth (%)

A3



QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 0.2 -0.4 1.0 2.5 4.5 3.2 3.8 4.5 -0.1Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 0.9 0.6 1.0 8.7 -7.4 -2.2 -3.1 -2.6 0.2Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 35.9 32.4 38.4 35.6 35.6 38.2 39.8 36.5 34.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -1.5 0.7 0.0 1.3 5.3 5.3 3.0 5.7 5.4Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.5 0.7 -1.2 1.1 3.6 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.4Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -6.9 6.3 3.6 -3.8 -10.3 -0.6 -7.8 -3.4 11.5CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 3.4 1.3 4.1 28.4 8.1 7.0 12.8 9.8 -3.2Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 1.3 4.1 28.4 8.1 7.0 12.8 #VALUE! -3.2 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.8 1.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 -2.7 1.1 3.0 2.5 2.9 1.7Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 2.0 -0.7 0.5 5.7 2.5 2.3 3.2 2.6 1.4

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Aug 2016 21.9 -4.0 -11.2 2.2 3.1 2.8 33.6 19.1 34.1Unemployment rate Aug 2016 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 8.0 7.3 7.7Participation rate Aug 2016 64.4 64.1 64.2 64.2 64.3 64.6 65.0 64.4 64.8

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.2 3.3 5.6 3.9Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -0.1 1.2 -1.1 -3.1 -1.7 4.7 -0.1 5.7 0.7Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 72.2 75.4 87.8 78.5 76.8 76.1 95.0 75.5 64.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 3.2 12.5 8.0 6.3 8.1 10.3Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 0.2 0.2 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.9Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -13.8 3.3 -1.5 -27.7 -8.5 9.5 -7.7 7.5 10.1CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 -3.5 2.4 -0.5 -11.3 7.2 -3.8 1.0 -2.5 -2.1Number of commercial bankrupties (1) May 2016 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.2 -3.8 1.0 #VALUE! -2.1 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 2.0 3.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 -4.4 0.4 3.0 1.5 2.8 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.8 0.4 1.4 9.9 4.8 3.7 5.3 4.2 2.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 1.9 1.1 1.4 18.0 17.5 11.1 15.7 12.9 7.6

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Aug 2016 10.5 -36.1 -4.2 -9.9 0.4 3.1 37.2 11.0 58.3

Unemployment rate Aug 2016 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.7Participation rate Aug 2016 64.8 64.6 65.0 64.8 65.0 65.1 65.3 65.1 65.2

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADORDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -6.2 0.7 1.1 -2.2 1.4 1.4 -3.9 1.9 -0.1Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 2.5 -0.1 -4.9 14.7 -25.0 -12.3 -22.9 -20.9 -9.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 4.9 -11.1 7.8 -7.3 11.5 2.1 -0.6 1.5 3.8Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.9 -1.4 0.6 3.0 -0.9 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 3.7Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -15.7 19.9 25.3 302.8 -17.6 -16.9 19.8 -17.3 -37.1CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 8.8 -24.4 9.3 -21.3 -43.5 -15.1 -33.2 -19.2 -15.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) May 2016 -24.4 9.3 -21.3 -43.5 -15.1 -33.2 0.0 -15.0 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.2 0.9 1.1 8.8 4.6 1.7 3.0 2.2 0.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -10.7 -5.0 -1.1 0.3 -1.0 -1.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 2.5 -5.9 6.3 3.4 -8.1 -5.2 -9.7 -7.5 -4.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Aug 2016 3.9 -5.0 -1.8 -1.0 0.7 -0.3 -3.3 3.1 1.6Unemployment Aug 2016 12.3 12.8 12.0 12.4 12.4 13.1 11.7 12.9 12.5Participation rate Aug 2016 60.5 59.8 60.6 60.3 60.5 60.8 61.3 60.5 61.0

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -0.1 0.1 0.7 6.1 6.8 5.2 5.8 6.5 1.5Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 6.3 -11.0 9.4 12.6 -3.7 -0.6 -2.7 1.1 4.7Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 10.8 -5.1 -5.9 -1.5 46.9 25.3 17.1 24.7 17.8Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 0.4 -0.1 3.4 2.1 4.5 3.9 4.2 2.4Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 5.1 7.6 8.2 83.6 -19.7 7.3 8.0 1.8 19.0CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 -9.3 2.5 1.1 -18.6 28.0 -1.5 6.5 -1.9 17.9Number of commercial bankrupties (1) May 2016 2.5 1.1 18.6 28.0 1.5 6.5 #VALUE! 17.9 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.4 -0.5 0.3 0.8 2.6 0.6 0.4 1.0 -0.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 -0.1 0.8 -1.8 -13.3 0.3 1.4 3.8 1.1 2.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 1.9 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 8.6 -6.1 11.3 19.6 30.7 3.9 24.0 8.7 2.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Aug 2016 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1 -1.6 -1.0Unemployment Aug 2016 12.1 9.6 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.4 10.5 10.8 10.7Participation rate Aug 2016 66.3 64.7 65.8 65.6 65.8 66.3 66.8 65.9 67.7

Sources: Thomson Reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

September 30, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A4


September 30, 2016 Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 0.6 -0.8 0.1 -1.2 2.0 3.1 0.8 4.5 -1.9Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -1.9 -1.6 7.8 21.0 -4.0 6.9 0.5 4.9 4.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 2.7 4.3 4.9 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 4.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -3.1 2.4 -2.6 -12.7 1.9 6.5 29.3 7.1 1.5Wages and Salaries June 2016 1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 1.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.6Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -10.3 -1.6 24.7 59.0 -5.4 7.2 -8.3 0.1 -7.7CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 -1.1 6.6 -4.9 -15.0 -16.8 2.1 -3.3 -1.6 9.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 6.6 -4.9 -15.0 -16.8 2.1 -3.3 #VALUE! 9.7 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 0.0 -0.5 0.2 1.5 2.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 0.3 -0.4 1.9 2.8 3.3 0.9 4.1 2.0 1.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -1.6 -0.1 1.0 2.8 -0.7 0.0 -3.8 -1.2 2.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Aug 2016 -0.1 -1.4 0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -2.9 -0.7 -3.0Unemployment Aug 2016 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.6Participation rate Aug 2016 61.6 61.6 61.7 61.7 61.9 62.0 62.2 61.9 62.4

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -6.9 2.3 -1.3 -3.4 0.1 4.9 -3.1 5.3 1.2Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 2.3 -3.9 -4.5 10.3 1.8 -12.7 -12.1 -10.5 -5.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 3.2 1.7 2.4 39.1 4.5 5.4 5.1 5.1 6.9Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.5 3.1 3.5 4.7 3.6 2.5Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -8.4 -6.7 30.5 172.2 13.0 -17.6 -9.7 -19.0 -0.5CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 -6.0 -0.5 -2.5 14.5 3.8 -2.9 -3.6 -2.4 4.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -0.5 -2.5 14.5 3.8 -2.9 -3.6 #VALUE! 4.0 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.3 0.7 0.3 4.5 3.8 1.5 2.2 1.9 0.5Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 0.8 0.5 -0.2 -1.8 1.1 0.3 2.9 0.5 4.4Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.5Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 2.0 0.5 -0.9 9.6 4.3 1.3 7.9 1.4 -1.9

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Aug 2016 -3.0 5.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 -1.2 -0.7Unemployment Aug 2016 9.4 9.7 10.3 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.2Participation rate Aug 2016 62.2 63.0 62.5 62.6 62.2 62.2 62.5 62.2 62.9

MANITOBADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -0.9 -0.2 0.8 -2.5 3.4 4.5 1.9 5.9 0.7Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -3.1 0.1 -5.1 -16.9 -5.3 0.0 -5.2 0.3 -2.3Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 4.9 8.1 5.2 6.1 5.3 5.4 4.9 5.3 5.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -3.7 1.1 -0.4 -11.8 6.0 4.6 -2.2 5.2 1.0Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.0 1.9 2.6 3.2Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -5.0 -4.5 3.2 -10.3 -6.1 2.9 2.6 0.7 -0.4CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 -2.4 -0.6 -2.4 -5.3 -18.3 0.5 1.4 -0.9 -8.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -0.6 -2.4 -5.3 -18.3 0.5 1.4 #VALUE! -8.8 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 0.2 -0.8 0.9 3.6 2.6 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.0Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -2.0 -2.1 3.4 0.8 2.8 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 0.2 -0.1 1.6 6.2 2.8 1.7 1.2 2.1 1.6

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Aug 2016 -2.4 0.2 0.0 -0.7 0.5 -0.1 -1.7 -0.1 0.8Unemployment Aug 2016 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 6.0 5.6Participation rate Aug 2016 67.3 67.8 67.9 67.7 67.7 67.8 68.2 67.7 68.4

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -3.3 3.3 -0.7 3.9 2.9 -0.6 0.8 1.1 -3.8Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -3.6 1.2 1.2 6.9 -4.2 -6.7 -4.3 -3.4 -12.1Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 6.6 5.9 4.8 5.7 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.9 5.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -4.9 4.5 -3.0 -12.3 -12.0 -7.3 -9.7 -6.2 -11.4Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.4 -0.5 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.1 2.9Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 7.8 4.3 -6.5 -13.8 -37.9 -16.6 -17.9 -23.1 -7.1CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 -1.6 7.4 -6.6 14.0 -6.2 -5.6 -9.7 -3.8 -17.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 7.4 -6.6 14.0 -6.2 -5.6 -9.7 #VALUE! -17.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 0.4 -0.3 -1.0 -7.0 1.9 2.9 2.6 3.0 2.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.8 -2.0 -1.4 -2.0 -1.6 -0.5Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 1.4 1.4 0.9 8.4 1.5 -1.6 1.9 -1.1 0.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Aug 2016 -0.4 -0.5 1.0 0.0 0.6 -0.4 -4.5 -6.1 -1.2Unemployment Aug 2016 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 4.8 6.1 4.8Participation rate Aug 2016 69.8 69.9 69.9 69.8 69.8 70.1 69.8 69.8 69.9

Sources: Thomson Reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)

Monthly Growth (%)

A5



ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 -3.2 -3.1 -3.5 -3.8 -2.0 -3.9Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -1.5 2.0 -1.2 11.0 -10.0 -14.6 -11.3 -13.0 -11.8Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 20.0 25.8 24.1 23.3 23.8 27.2 34.6 23.6 39.1Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -4.0 -0.2 3.3 10.4 0.2 -15.8 -12.4 -11.4 -20.4Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.4 -2.1 0.0 -7.1 -6.0 -4.3 -5.5 -5.3 2.0Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -1.2 10.2 3.4 21.8 -38.2 -25.4 -27.9 -24.2 -21.9CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 3.3 -2.5 9.9 201.2 69.1 -30.0 38.5 -19.5 -36.9Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -2.5 9.9 201.2 69.1 -30.0 38.5 #VALUE! -36.9 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 0.2 -0.5 0.5 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.0Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 -1.2 0.3 -0.5 -6.4 1.5 3.0 0.2 2.5 3.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 1.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -2.2 3.4 -0.7 6.4 2.3 -1.6 0.6 -0.6 -1.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Aug 2016 2.7 -1.4 -1.9 -0.2 -4.4 -4.5 -53.4 -35.2 -1.4Unemployment Aug 2016 8.4 8.6 7.9 8.3 7.8 7.5 6.1 7.8 5.7Participation rate Aug 2016 72.2 72.3 71.8 72.1 72.2 72.6 73.0 72.4 73.1

BRITISH COLUMBIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 0.9 0.1 -0.1 5.2 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.2Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 2.2 -0.3 1.2 7.0 4.9 0.7 4.0 1.9 4.0Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 35.4 39.5 49.8 41.6 41.9 39.1 27.4 42.6 31.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -10.0 -6.2 -5.8 -49.2 8.8 23.1 -4.2 23.3 21.5Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.2 -0.3 1.2 6.1 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.3Value of merchandise exports July 2016 9.1 -0.2 -1.0 1.2 1.4 0.7 7.2 0.9 0.7CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2016 -3.5 -1.2 -4.1 -12.1 6.6 -7.1 0.6 -6.3 -3.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -1.2 -4.1 -12.1 6.6 -7.1 0.6 #VALUE! -3.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.9 3.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 0.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) Aug 2016 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 1.7 0.9 1.1 2.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.6 0.4 1.0 7.4 5.9 3.2 5.3 4.2 0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -14.9 -0.9 -1.8 -31.0 0.4 14.1 -7.4 14.1 10.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Aug 2016 -6.6 12.1 16.0 7.2 5.8 6.0 72.6 50.4 29.3Unemployment Aug 2016 5.5 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0Participation rate Aug 2016 64.1 64.4 64.4 64.3 64.3 64.2 63.5 64.3 63.1

Sources: Thomson-Reuthers Datastream, Canadian Real estate Association and BCStats

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Monthly Growth (%)September 30, 2016

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)

A6


TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSSeptember 30, 2016


OECD leading index July 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Aug 2016 42.6 41.6 42.5 42.2 41.8 41.5 42.2 41.5 41.3Retail Sales (1) * Aug 2016 -5.8 6.0 -1.8 -6.9 -0.1 -0.7 -2.1 -0.9 -0.5Industrial Production, Volume Index * Aug 2016 1.5 -0.4 2.3 3.8 0.1 -1.6 1.2 -1.8 -1.3Exports Aug 2016 0.0 -1.7 1.1 -5.1 -11.6 -7.8 -10.7 -9.7 7.6Imports Aug 2016 -1.3 -1.7 0.3 -7.5 -22.2 -16.6 -21.0 -18.4 -6.2Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) July 2016 3,616 4,658 3,286 3,853 3,737 2,134 -1,207 24,604 -7,036Current account (Billions of ¥) July 2016 145 165 141 150 161 154 138 1,111 892Inflation (CPI) * Aug 2016 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 1.1Job offers to applicants ratio * Aug 2016 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.35 1.31 1.22 1.33 1.18Unemployment Rate * Aug 2016 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 0.7 2.1 -1.7 2.1 -1.9 5.0 0.6 -0.1 1.4

Euro-zoneVolume Retail Sales July 2016 1.1 -0.1 0.4 2.6 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.9Industrial Production exc. Construction July 2016 -1.1 0.9 -1.1 -1.8 0.0 1.5 -0.6 1.0 1.9Exports July 2016 -1.1 1.0 -1.7 -3.8 -1.2 0.1 -3.5 -1.8 6.6Imports July 2016 1.4 1.4 -1.3 -3.0 -4.6 -1.9 -2.6 -4.0 2.6Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) July 2016 20,041 23,808 24,083 22,644 24,309 24,570 23,171 157,937 137,200Inflation (CPI) * Sept 2016 0.4 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0Unemployment Rate * Aug 2016 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.7 10.2 11.0

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2013 2012 2011Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 3.3 -0.4 -0.7 0.0

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) * Sept 2016 -2 -8 -9 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 4Retail Sales Aug 2016 -0.2 1.9 -0.8 6.3 5.0 4.7 6.2 4.9 4.4Manufacturing, energy and mining output July 2016 0.1 0.0 -0.7 4.1 2.1 1.1 2.1 1.1 1.3Exports (1) July 2016 3.4 1.0 -8.4 -8.5 12.2 -1.4 10.3 1.2 -2.0Imports (1) July 2016 -0.9 5.1 -3.3 13.2 10.6 0.2 8.1 3.2 0.4Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) July 2016 -11,764 -12,920 -11,359 -12,014 -11,553 -10,403 -10,361 -79,274 -73,706

Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) Aug 2016 0.4 -0.1 0.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0Producer price index, manufacturing (1) Aug 2016 0.1 0.3 0.3 2.8 1.8 -0.8 0.8 -0.4 -1.7House prices Aug 2016 -0.2 -1.1 1.2 3.0 6.8 8.7 4.1 8.3 8.7Unemployment Rate (3-month mov. av.) July 2016 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.6

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) * 2.7 1.7 2.7 1.2 2.0 1.2 2.2 3.1 1.9

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 29 Sept 16 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 29 Sept 16 -0.38 -0.34 -0.37 -0.29 -0.31 -0.18 -0.33 -0.12 -0.03

- Spread with U.S. * 29 Sept 16 -0.64 -0.52 -0.66 -0.57 -0.58 -0.42 -0.59 -0.33 -0.01Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 29 Sept 16 -0.08 -0.02 -0.05 -0.13 -0.12 0.03 -0.23 -0.04 0.33

- Spread with U.S. * 29 Sept 16 -1.64 -1.65 -1.75 -1.68 -1.77 -1.82 -1.72 -1.82 -1.71Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 29 Sept 16 101.0 100.7 102.1 102.3 104.9 111.1 103.3 112.6 119.9

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 29 Sept 16 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.20 -0.25 -0.25 -0.05

- Spread with U.S. * 29 Sept 16 -0.51 -0.43 -0.54 -0.53 -0.52 -0.43 -0.51 -0.46 -0.03Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 29 Sept 16 0.00 120.30 119.98 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00 0.00 $$ER: E100

- Spread with U.S. * 29 Sept 16 -1.56 118.67 118.28 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -1.49 -1.78 #VALUE!Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 29 Sept 16 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.12

(Yen/Euro) * 29 Sept 16 113.88 113.19 114.98 114.47 118.02 123.90 114.05 127.90 133.56(Euro / £ ) * 29 Sept 16 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.22 1.28 1.21 1.26 1.36

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 29 Sept 16 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.42 0.37 0.45 0.47

- Spread with U.S. * 29 Sept 16 -0.03 0.03 -0.08 0.00 0.09 0.18 0.11 0.24 0.49Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 29 Sept 16 1.42 1.43 1.58 1.46 1.83 2.16 1.72 2.29 2.45

- Spread with U.S. * 29 Sept 16 -0.85 -0.93 -0.89 -0.82 -0.59 -0.47 -0.58 -0.33 -0.41Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 29 Sept 16 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.31 1.37 1.42 1.33 1.44 1.51

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Past Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Sept 2016 221 -1.8 3.4 -0.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 -0.5 -7.1

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated Source: Datastream


Monthly Growth (%)

A7


Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)

Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Sept 29 Sept 22 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

INDICES THOMSON-REUTERS

Total 418.8 426.4 -1.8 3.0 -2.2 -12.5 16.6 7.9 388.2

Energy 414.6 407.2 1.8 3.2 -3.5 7.0 74.7 7.9 384.2Grain 273.2 279.1 -2.1 2.1 -2.1 -41.2 -11.3 -10.2 304.1Industrials 353.1 363.0 -2.7 3.7 0.2 11.2 16.8 3.5 341.2Livestock & Meat 270.0 280.8 -3.8 -0.7 -3.1 -64.5 -47.1 -23.9 354.7Precious Metals 858.8 884.7 -2.9 3.5 -3.2 5.8 25.7 21.7 705.9

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1320.85 1332.45 -0.9 0.9 -2.1 1.2 14.6 18.5 1114.20(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 1028.0 1046.0 -1.7 1.2 -5.4 9.9 12.3 12.7 912.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 0.2 0.2 -4.5 4.9 -3.0 13.3 53.3 31.1 0.1(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 709.0 697.0 1.7 6.3 -5.5 110.0 55.3 7.6 659.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 1,661 1,627 2.1 4.3 -0.9 4.3 20.8 6.8 1,555

Copper ($/tonne) 4,825 4,835 -0.2 1.5 2.5 -1.2 -2.3 -5.6 5,110

Zinc ($/tonne) 2,354 2,284 3.0 3.0 -3.8 57.2 69.5 41.0 1,669

Nickel ($/tonne) 10,391 10,616 -2.1 9.9 -6.2 49.2 51.3 3.8 10,015

Lead ($/tonne) 2,065 1,941 6.3 0.0 1.4 78.8 48.0 26.3 1,634

Uranium (UxC-Ux U308 Spot $/pound) 23.75 24.75 -4.0 -2.4 -0.6 -40.1 -33.6 -34.9 36.50

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil WTI ($/barrel) future 47.83 46.32 3.3 5.5 -7.8 -4.1 55.6 6.9 44.74(NYMEX)

Oil (Spead with WTI $/barrel) 1st future -13.95 -14.35 -2.8 0.7 1.4 7.5 10.8 -3.8 -14.50(West Canadian select - CME)

Corn (¢/bushel) 3.0 3.1 -3.2 1.0 -2.5 -41.4 -22.1 -18.4 3.7(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (¢/bushel) 9.2 9.6 -4.4 1.5 -4.2 -60.2 6.4 7.6 8.5(Illinois #1)

Pork (¢/lb) 92.7 92.7 0.0 -28.2 0.7 -71.5 -50.7 -43.3 163.7

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 134.9 136.1 -0.9 2.0 -3.5 -22.6 -27.4 -28.6 188.9(CME)

Soft Wood Pulp (HWWI) 96 96 0.0 0.0 0.4 -7.2 -3.9 -1.8 98Index 2010 = 100

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 2.95 3.14 -6.1 6.4 3.9 7.1 131.2 24.5 2.37Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 330 325 1.4 8.9 -1.9 39.2 12.9 47.0 225

Iron ore ($/metric ton) 57 57 0.0 0.9 -3.4 19.7 8.2 2.7 56

All prices are in US dollars Source: Thomson Reuthers Datastream

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

September 30, 2016

A8


ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

Montreal Office Toronto Office 514-879-2529 416-869-8598 Stéfane Marion Marc Pinsonneault Warren Lovely Chief Economist & Strategist Senior Economist MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Paul-André Pinsonnault Matthieu Arseneau Senior Fixed Income Economist Senior Economist [email protected] [email protected]

Krishen Rangasamy Angelo Katsoras Senior Economist Geopolitical Analyst [email protected] [email protected]

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week in review · the weekly jobless claims report revealed initial claims rising 3k to 254k (below...

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