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Weekly Cat Report September 18, 2015


Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event & Region Fatalities Structures/Claims Economic Loss

(USD)

Specific Areas

Earthquake

- Americas

12+

Thousands

100s of Millions

Chile

Wildfires

- United States

3+

Thousands

1.0+ billion

California

Flooding

- United States

- Asia

18+

8+

Thousands

19,140+

Millions+

250+ million

Southw est

Japan

Earthquake: A major magnitude-8.3 earthquake struck just off the coast of central Chile on

Wednesday evening, triggering a series of tsunami waves that came ashore in

Chile and elsewhere across parts of the Pacific Ocean. As of this writing, at least

12 people were confirmed dead and 35 others were injured as officials continue

to survey impacted coastal areas that sustained damage from the ground

shaking and tsunami inundation. The scope of damage was much less than what was seen in the February 2010 M8.8 event. Details begin on page 3.

Wildfires: Two of the most destructive wildfires in California’s history burned across

northern sections of the state this week, leaving at least two people dead. More

than 1,000 homes and other structures were damaged or destroyed by the Valley

and Butte fires. CalFire officials reported that the Valley and Butte fires are now ranked 9th and 14th in state history, respectively, based on the number of homes

burned. Details begin on page 7.

Flooding: Deadly flash floods struck southern Utah on Monday night claiming at least 18

lives in two separate incidents. Portions of southern California and Arizona were also impacted by monsoon-enhanced rainfall. Elsewhere, Japan continued to

count the cost of last week’s tremendous flooding event. Japanese insurers

expected payouts of at least USD250 million. Details begin on page 9.


Weekly Cat Report 3

Powerful M8.3 earthquake strikes near Chile coast

A major magnitude-8.3 earthquake struck just off the coast of

central Chile on Wednesday evening, triggering a series of

tsunami waves that came ashore in Chile and elsewhere across

parts of the Pacific Ocean. As of this writing, at least 11 people

were confirmed dead and 20 others were injured as officials

continue to survey impacted coastal areas that sustained damage from the ground shaking and tsunami inundation. More

than one million people were evacuated along the Chilean

coastline, Easter Island and the archipelago Juan Fernandez as

residents sought safety and higher ground in the immediate

aftermath of the event. Preliminary reports suggested that the level of damage was significant in some areas, but not as

catastrophic as the February 27, 2010 magnitude-8.8 event.

The USGS-registered main tremor struck at 7:54 PM local time

(22:54 UTC) with an epicenter located 46 kilometers (29 miles) west of Illapel, Chile and 229 kilometers (142 miles) north-

northwest of the capital city of Santiago, Chile at a shallow depth of 25.0 kilometers (15.5 miles). Several

strong aftershocks were recorded in the hours after the primary shock, with at least 33 registered at

magnitude-5.0 or greater in intensity. One aftershock was measured at magnitude-7.0, while others were

registered with magnitudes 6.7, 6.5, 6.4, 6.4, 6.3, 6.2, and 6.1 respectively. Additional strong aftershocks were expected in the coming days and weeks.

Immediately after the first earthquake occurred, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) declared a

Tsunami Warning for the entire coastline of Chile and Peru, and a Tsunami Watch for the U.S. state of

Hawaii. Later, the agency issued tsunami advisories for New Zealand, Fiji, Ecuador, Solomon Islands,

and the U.S. state of California. Tsunami waves of varying heights were recorded or expected across almost the entire Pacific Ocean.

This was the strongest earthquake to strike anywhere in the world thus far in 2015, and was widely felt

across South America. Parts of Peru, Argentina and even as far away as Sao Paolo, Brazil – located

2,100 miles (3,380 kilometers) on the other side of the continent – felt shaking.

Event Details

Early reports suggested that some of the heaviest damage occurred in the coastal cities of Coquimbo,

Tongoy, Concon, and Los Vilos. Each of the towns reported extensive damage and flooding from tsunami

waves. The Chilean government has already declared the areas to be catastrophe zones and the military

were sent to prevent any threats of looting. Coquimbo’s mayor cited major flood damage in the port city, which saw waves as high as 15.6 feet (4.75 meters) rage inland that damaged the port, the fishing wharf

and much of downtown. Many large fishing vessels were swept into the streets, and 879 homes in the city

were listed as damaged or destroyed. In Tongoy, reports indicated that tsunami inundation reached the

downtown area and destroyed a preschool, a police station and part of a health clinic. The town’s entire

seafront was also destroyed. Officials in the inland town of Illapel noted that adobe homes had completely

collapsed and that landslides and rockfalls were commonplace. Similar photos were seen in the town of La Serena, where walls and the ceiling collapsed at a shopping mall.

Source: USGS


Weekly Cat Report 4

In the capital of Santiago, buildings swayed and residents rushed out of buildings. Initial reports did not indicate major structural damage, though there was significant indoor content damage as stored items fell

to the ground. The tremor occurred in the middle of rush hour traffic when many residents were on roads.

Extensive damage to infrastructure was being reported especially in the northern half of the country as a

result of severe buckling, debris from landslides, and coastal flooding. Chile was supposed to celebrate

its national holiday on Friday, September 18, a time when families traditionally get together. Because of the holiday, many schools were already closed for vacation, and many Chileans were already traveling.

Given the infrastructure damage, local media reported that public transport between Santiago and locales

to the north had been cancelled and it was expected that many residents will be stranded.

The electrical grid was also affected as nearly 250,000 customers were without electricity, including the entire town of Illapel and 95 percent of the town of Coquimbo. Some cities reported no drinking water.

Operations were suspended at two major copper mines operated by Codelco and Antofagasta PLC that

generate annual capacity of more than 600,000 tonnes. The airport in Santiago was temporarily closed,

though no damage to the facility was cited.

Below are select maximum tsunami wave heights as provided by NOAA’s National Tsunami Warning

Center (NTWC). **Please note that the observed maximum tsunami height is the water level above the

tide at the time of the measurement.**

Site Time of

Measurement

Observ ed Maximum

Tsunami Height

Site Time of

Measurement

Observ ed Maximum

Tsunami Height

Coquimbo, Chile 09:25 PM CLT 15.6 f eet (4.75 meters) San Felix, Chile 09:51 PM CLT 2.3 f eet (0.69 meters)

Quintero, Chile 09:04 PM CLT 6.1 f eet (1.86 meters) Constitucion, Chile 09:50 PM CLT 2.2 f eet (0.67 meters)

Valparaiso, Chile 09:44 PM CLT 5.9 f eet (1.77 meters) Caldera, Chile 10:13 PM CLT 2.0 f eet (0.61 meters)

Valparaiso, Chile 08:50 PM CLT 5.3 f eet (1.62 meters) Arica, Chile 02:06 AM CLT 1.9 f eet (0.58 meters)

Talcahuano, Chile 11:53 PM CLT 4.3 f eet (1.30 meters) La Punta, Peru 02:21 AM CLT 1.8 f eet (0.56 meters)

Juan Fernandez, Chile 09:38 PM CLT 4.0 f eet (1.21 meters) Santa Cruz, Galapagos 03:43 AM CLT 1.8 f eet (0.56 meters)

Talcahuano, Chile 11:09 PM CLT 3.9 f eet (1.19 meters) Antof agasta, Chile 12:12 AM CLT 1.7 f eet (0.54 meters)

Chanarl, Chile 11:37 PM CLT 3.8 f eet (1.15 meters) Coronel, Chile 12:23 AM CLT 1.5 f eet (0.47 meters)

Chanarl, Chile 09:43 PM CLT 3.6 f eet (1.09 meters) Talcahuano, Chile 09:44 PM CLT 1.5 f eet (0.46 meters)

Quiriquina, Chile 10:00 PM, CLT 3.4 f eet (1.04 meters) Antof agasta, Chile 10:00 PM CLT 1.3 f eet (0.40 meters)

San Antonio, Chile 09:28 PM CLT 3.4 f eet (1.04 meters) Corral, Chile 11:45 PM CLT 1.2 f eet (0.37 meters)

Juan Fernandez, Chile 09:23 PM CLT 3.2 f eet (0.98 meters) San Felix Island, Chile 09:17 PM CLT 1.0 f eet (0.30 meters)

Caldera, Chile 11:58 PM CLT 3.2 f eet (0.98 meters) Corral, Chile 10:08 PM CLT 0.9 f eet (0.27 meters)

Caldera, Chile 12:20 AM CLT 3.1 f eet (0.95 meters) Bahia Mansa, Chile 12:52 AM CLT 0.9 f eet (0.27 meters)

Constitucion, Chile 10:24 PM CLT 2.9 f eet (0.88 meters) Taltal, Chile 09:18 PM CLT 0.8 f eet (0.25 meters)

San Antonio, Chile 08:58 PM CLT 2.8 f eet (0.86 meters) Callao La Punta, Peru 12:09 AM CLT 0.8 f eet (0.25 meters)

Easter Island 01:53 AM CLT 2.8 f eet (0.86 meters) Taltal, Chile 09:55 PM CLT 0.8 f eet (0.24 meters)

Constitucion, Chile 11:10 PM CLT 2.7 f eet (0.83 meters) Corral, Chile 10:24 PM CLT 0.7 f eet (0.22 meters)

Easter Island 02:05 AM CLT 2.7 f eet (0.83 meters) Paposo, Chile 08:51 PM CLT 0.6 f eet (0.18 meters)

Huasco, Chile 10:06 PM CLT 2.5 f eet (0.77 meters) Baltra Island, Ecuador 03:57 AM CLT 0.6 f eet (0.18 meters)

Bucalemu, Chile 11:46 PM CLT 2.5 f eet (0.76 meters) Matarani, Peru 10:03 PM CLT 0.5 f eet (0.14 meters)

Huasco, Chile 10:01 PM CLT 2.4 f eet (0.73 meters) Ancud, Chile 12:03 AM CLT 0.5 f eet (0.14 meters)

Despite the damage reports, the overall scope was not as catastrophic as initially feared. One key reason

may be that the government has since mandated that all new buildings must be able to withstand a magnitude-9.0 earthquake. It also instituted a new tsunami warning system that was activated for the first

time during the September 16 event.

It is worth noting that since Chile is located in a highly seismic region, the government has a long-

established set of strict building codes. A brief look at Chile’s building code history indicates that the first seismic codes were established as far back as 1935. The 1972 version of the building code was revised

following the magnitude-7.8 earthquake that struck in 1985, though those updates first went into effect in

September 16/17 tsunami wave heights (Source: National Tsunami Warning Center)


Weekly Cat Report 5

1993. The 1985 code was later updated in 1996 and 2003. As of 2010, it was estimated that approximately three percent of recently built buildings were not up to the current building code. However,

newly built ‘essential’ facilities do conform to the current code. Overall, about 30 percent of the total

buildings in Chile are designed and based on older versions of the building code.

The most predominant construction types are masonry (reinforced, confined, or unreinforced), and approximately 60 percent of residential buildings and 40 percent of commercial buildings are of this type.

Other residential construction types are based on wood frame, which account for nearly 20 percent of the

building stock. For highrise apartments, contractors typically use concrete; while 33 percent of

commercial buildings are built using reinforced concrete. Steel construction is used in about 15 percent of

commercial structures. Industrial buildings are typically built using steel or light metal.

Seismological Recap

According to preliminary information from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), an estimated 11

million people were exposed to earthquake shaking rated at intensity four or greater on the Modified

Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. In the city of Santiago, with a population of more than 4.8 million, residents

were estimated to have been exposed to shaking rated at MMI 5.

Intensity Exposed Population Intensity Exposed Population

II-III (Weak) N/A VII (Very strong) 836,000

IV (Light) 1.040 million VIII (Severe) 42,000

V (Moderate) 6.698 million IX (Violent) 0

VI (Strong) 2.406 million X (Extreme) 0

The earthquake occurred as a result of thrust faulting on the interface between the Nazca and South

American tectonic plates in central Chile. The following earthquake summary has been provided by the

USGS:

The September 16, 2015 magnitude-8.3 earthquake

west of Illapel, Chile, occurred as the result of thrust

faulting on the interface between the Nazca and

South America plates in central Chile. At the latitude

of this event, the Nazca plate is moving towards the

east-northeast at a velocity of 74 mm/year with respect to South America, and begins its subduction

beneath the continent at the Peru-Chile Trench, 85

k ilometers to the west of the September 16

earthquake. The size, location, depth and mechanism

of this event are all consistent with its occurrence on the megathrust interface in this region.

While commonly plotted as points on maps,

earthquakes of this size are more appropriately

described as slip over a larger fault area. Events of the size of the September 16, 2015 earthquake are

typically about 230x100 kilometers in size (length x

width).


Weekly Cat Report 6

Chile has a long history of massive earthquakes, including the 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in central Chile, which ruptured a ~400 k ilometer long section of the plate boundary south of this 2015 event (and to

the south of the Juan Fernandez Ridge, which enters the trench immediately south of the 2015

earthquake). This subducton zone also hosted the largest earthquake on record, the 1960 M9.5

earthquake in southern Chile. Over the century prior to the September 16, 2015 earthquake, the region

within 400 k ilometers of this event has hosted 15 other M7.0+ earthquakes.

Historical Context

This was the strongest earthquake to strike Chile since a magnitude-8.8 occurred on February 27, 2010.

That event left catastrophic damage throughout the country, with Chile’s National Institute of Statistics

indicating that at least 1.5 million homes were damaged – including more than 500,000 of which were

listed as destroyed. Beyond the excessive shaking from the tremor, the event triggered 8.0-meter (26.2-feet) high tsunami waves in parts of the cities of Los Cambuchos, Coronel, Concepcion, Dichato, and

Constitucion. At least 500 people were killed. The event caused economic losses of USD30 billion (2010

USD), and insured losses of USD8.5 billion (2010 USD).

According to the USGS, a magnitude-8.8 earthquake is 3.2 times bigger than a magnitude-8.3

earthquake on a seismogram and 5.6 times stronger in terms of energy release.

Below is a comparison of the maximum wave amplitudes above sea level (in centimeters), showing the

tsunami energy propagation from the September 16, 2015 M8.3 event (left) and the February 27, 2010

M8.8 event (right).

The strongest earthquake ever recorded on Earth happened in Chile on May 20, 1960. The magnitude-

9.5 event reportedly shook for almost 10 minutes and caused devastating damage throughout the country

while tsunami waves damaged areas all across the Pacific Ocean. At least 5,000 people were killed.

Financial Loss

It remains far too early to provide an economic loss projection for the event. However, the USGS has

preliminarily estimated that 52 percent chance of losses being between USD100 million and USD1.0 billion. The agency also cites that there is an 18 percent likelihood of economic damages exceeding

USD1.0 billion, and a 29 percent chance of economic losses being less than USD100 million. For

background, the USGS uses a computer simulation model that is designed to rapidly and automatically

take into account the differences in proximity to populated areas, the depth of the earthquake, and

building standards to provide initial analysis to governments and emergency management officials.

Source: National Tsunami Warning Center


Weekly Cat Report 7

Wildfires destroy hundreds of homes in California

Multiple wildfires were ignited in recent days and continue to rage across parts of northern California. At

least two people were killed as the fires remain active and burning in rural areas to the north and west

outside of the greater San Francisco and Sacramento metro regions. The fires have been aided by the

ongoing extreme drought, hot daytime temperatures, gusty winds, very low dew points, dry soil conditions

and vast dried vegetation and brush. Thousands of residents remain under mandatory evacuation orders

across Lake, Napa, Amador and Calaveras counties.

The most destructive active fire is the Valley Fire, located

approximately 75 miles (120 kilometers) north-northwest

of San Francisco. The fire was ignited at 1:24 PM PDT

(local time) on September 12 (20:24 UTC) in the Cobb

area of Lake County. The cause of the fire is still under investigation. The blaze rapidly spread and as of

Thursday afternoon, it had charred approximately 73,700

acres (29,825 hectares) and was just 35 percent

contained.

As of this writing, the Valley Fire had claimed the life of one civilian in Middletown and severely injured four

firefighters. At least 585 homes, two apartment

complexes and 10 businesses were destroyed. The final

number of homes is expected to approach 1,000. Hundreds of other structures were also destroyed.

Much of the damage occurred in the communities of Middletown and Cobb, where entire neighborhoods burned. State and local agencies issued mandatory evacuation orders for an area containing

approximately 7,650 threatened homes and 10

commercial properties in the Clear Lake Riviera area and

for communities at Cobb, Seigler Canyon, Loch Lomond,

Middletown, and Hidden Valley Lakes. A total of 3,580

firefighters and 441 fire engines were tending the blaze with support from two air tankers and 15 helicopters.

More than 6,000 residents in the area were without power

according to Pacific Gas and Electric; while some

residents also reported no water supply. A state of

emergency was declared for Lake and Napa counties.

Another significant active fire was the Butte Fire, which was located approximately 45 miles (70

kilometers) southeast of Sacramento. The fire was ignited at 2:26 PM PDT local time on September 9

(21:26 UTC) east of Jackson, in Amador and Calaveras counties. As of this writing, the fire had burned

approximately 70,760 acres (28,635 hectares) and was 49 percent contained. Two fatalities were claimed

by the fire - both in Calveras County. Authorities reported that the blaze had destroyed at least 252 homes and 188 outbuildings. Seventeen additional structures were damaged. Up to 6,400 structures

remain listed as under threat of the fire, and firefighters issued mandatory evacuation orders for San

Andreas at Pope, West Murray Creek, Lewis, Miller, San Andreas Elementary, Goldstrike, Mountain

Ranch East to Windmill, Wimbledon Drive, Forest Hill, and Turner Court in Amador and Calaveras

counties. More than 4,400 fire-fighters and 429 fire engines were battling the blaze supported by 10

helicopters, 69 dozers, and 56 water tenders. Pacific Gas and Electric’s website also reported more than 5,000 power outages in the area of the Butte Fire.

September 17 Valley Fire perimeter (Source: CalFire)

Hidden Valley (Source: The Associated Press)


Weekly Cat Report 8

CalFire officials reported that the Valley and Butte fires are now two of the most destructive in state history, with the Valley Fire ranked 9th and the Butte Fire ranked 14th based on the number of homes

burned.

The largest active fire in California remains the Rough Fire,

which has been burning in Fresno County since the evening

of July 31 following a lightning strike. The fire, now the largest in Fresno County history, has burned 141,036 acres (57,075

hectares) and was listed at 67 percent containment. Dozens

of homes were evacuated in the town of Dunlap and vehicle

access into Kings Canyon National Park is not allowed.

This year has been particularly active for wildfires across the United States, and given that the peak of the wildfire season

is about to begin in California, there is continued concern for

additional wildfire threats throughout the fall and winter

months. Since official data records by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) began being kept in

1983, no year has ever surpassed 10 million acres (4.05 million hectares) burned. As of September 15, more than 8.83 million acres (3.54 million hectares) had already been charred – making it the fourth-

highest acres burned on record. 2006 currently holds the official record with 9.87 million acres (3.99

million hectares) burned.

In terms of acres burned per fire, the 190.67 acres currently seen in 2015 easily surpasses the annual

record of 137.61 set in 2012. This is often a more interesting statistic since it shows just how much land

these individual fires are burning. An early September 2015 report by the U.S. Forest Service noted that USD1.23 billion had already been spent on fighting wildfires, above the annual 10-year average of

USD1.1 billion. It was quickly approaching the all-time inflation-adjusted record of USD1.65 billion spent

in 2002.

The graphic below highlights the annual U.S. wildfire/brushfire acres burned from 1983 to 2014 (blue

bars) on the primary Y-Axis in comparison to the Year-to-Date (YTD) tally for 2015. Also included on the map is the acres burned per fire plot (gold line) on the secondary Y-Axis.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015YTD

Ac

res

Bu

rne

d P

er

Fir

e

Ac

res

Bu

rne

d

U.S. Brushfires

Acres Burned

Average Acres Burned (1983-2014)

Acres Burned Per Fire

Source: Aon Benfield & NIFC

September 17 Butte Fire perimeter (Source: CalFire)


Weekly Cat Report 9

In recent times, the two costliest years on record for California wildfires occurred in 2003 and 2007. The fires in October and November 2003 caused economic damage of USD3.5 billion (2003) and insured

losses of more than USD2.0 billion (2003). In less than one week in October 2007, the Witch Fire alone

left economic damage USD3.0 billion (2007) and insured losses of USD1.6 billion (2007).

The table below provides a summary of U.S. year-to-date fire statistics for the past 10 years.

U.S. Year-to-Date Statistics Number of Fires Acres Burned

2015 (1/1/15 - 9/16/15) Fires: 46,347 Acres: 8,834,487

2014 (1/1/14 - 9/16/14) Fires: 39,685 Acres: 2,935,074

2013 (1/1/13 - 9/16/13) Fires: 34,981 Acres: 3,956,258

2012 (1/1/12 - 9/16/12) Fires: 46,554 Acres: 8,484,935

2011 (1/1/11 - 9/16/11) Fires: 60,097 Acres: 7,680,977

2010 (1/1/10 - 9/16/10) Fires: 46,762 Acres: 2,723,119

2009 (1/1/09 - 9/16/09) Fires: 68,684 Acres: 5,552,961

2008 (1/1/08 - 9/16/08) Fires: 66,818 Acres: 4,671,595

2007 (1/1/07 - 9/16/07) Fires: 70,077 Acres: 7,943,050

2006 (1/1/06 - 9/16/06) Fires: 82,144 Acres: 8,779,061

2005 (1/1/05 - 9/16/05) Fires: 49,044 Acres: 8,114,671

2005-2014 Average Fires: 56,427 Acres: 6,048,730

The table below provides a summary of fires in California during the past 10 years.

Annual Year Summary Number of Fires Acres Burned

2015 (As of September 16) 7,380 769,120

2014 7,865 555,044

2013 9,907 577,675

2012 7,950 869,599

2011 7,989 126,854

2010 6,554 109,529

2009 9,159 405,585

2008 4,108 1,375,781

2007 9,093 1,087,110

2006 8,202 678,919

2005 7,162 202,754

2005-2014 Average 7,799 598,885

It remains too early to provide a true economic or insured loss estimate given that the Valley and Butte fires are still active and fire officials have yet to complete assessments. However, given historical losses

for fires of similar size, it is expected that the combined insured loss for the Valley and Butte fires will

reach well into the hundreds of millions (USD) and possibly reach the USD1.0 billion threshold. Since

1990, there have only been four years (1991, 1993, 2003, 2007) with insured wildfire losses beyond

USD1.0 billion in the U.S. – and each of those years were driven by major California fire events.

Deadly flash floods hit Utah

Deadly flash floods struck southern Utah on Monday night claiming at least 18 lives in two separate

incidents. Portions of southern California and Arizona were also impacted from Sunday through Tuesday

as monsoon storms brought torrential downpours and strong wind gusts to many areas. Flash floods can

occur under various conditions but they most commonly occur due to heavy or torrential rain falling in a

short amount of time onto ground that is dry with poor absorption abilities.

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Source: National Interagency Fire Center


Weekly Cat Report 10

At least 12 individuals were killed in Hildale, Utah, near the Utah-Arizona border, when two vehicles holding 16 passengers were swept away by floodwaters tearing down Short Creek on Monday evening.

At the time of this writing, the bodies of 12 of the passengers had been recovered, three of the

passengers were found alive - one with severe injuries - and one was still listed as missing. A further six

individuals were killed by the same flash floods at Keyhole Canyon in Zion National Park. One other was

still listed as missing at the time of this writing. The group were believed to have set out prior to flash flood warnings being issued for the area.

Elsewhere, the torrential downpours caused flooding in portions of Phoenix and Los Angeles. The

Buckeye area of Phoenix experienced wind gusts of 40 mph (64 kph) and 0.85 inches (21.6 millimeters)

of rain in less than two hours on Sunday night. Ensuing flash floods trapped at least a dozen vehicles and

downed power lines that prompted the closure of an elementary school. Around 18,000 customers were without power. Thousands of customers were also left without power supplies in southern California

following record-breaking rainfall in the area on Tuesday: twelve stations broke their daily rainfall records

including a station in downtown Los Angeles which recorded 2.39 inches (60.7 millimeters) of rain making

September 15 the second wettest September day on record in the city since records began in 1877. On

Tuesday afternoon, 11,600 customers were without electricity following the passage of the storms that also cause gridlock on several roads and highways during the morning rush-hour. At least three

individuals had to be rescued from the floodwaters but there were no reports of any casualties in

California resulting from the storms.

Update: Japan Floods

Floods that inundated portions of central and eastern Japan late last week persisted over the weekend as

more details of the devastating damage emerged. Eight fatalities were confirmed this week - three each in Tochigi and Ibaraki prefectures and two in Miyagi prefecture. Ibaraki’s fatalities were all from the town of

Joso which was inundated as the Kinugawa River burst its banks on Thursday. In addition, 46 others

were injured, seven of them severely, the majority of whom were in Ibaraki. Fifteen others who were

previously listed as missing in Joso were found alive and well on Tuesday. As of Monday, 3,000 residents

in Ibaraki were still in evacuation centers.

As of this writing, twelve homes had been destroyed, eight were partially destroyed, and 96

were damaged. A total of 7,154 were listed as

flooded by the Fire and Disaster Management

Agency (FDMA) while a further 11,804 were listed

as partially flooded. A further 66 public buildings were listed as damaged. The majority of the

damage was recorded in Ibaraki, Tochigi, and

Miyagi. Japan’s Land Ministry reported that 64

rivers in eight prefectures burst their banks as a

result of the floods, 14 of which suffered levee collapses including the Kinugawa River.

Government researchers reported on Sunday that the Kinugawa River submerged an area of 40 square

kilometers (15 square miles) of Joso. A total of 453 landslides were reported - the majority of which were

in Tochigi prefecture (356).

Joso (Source: Agence France-Presse)



Despite the huge number of slides, only one fatality was reported (in Kanuma city, Tochigi) as a result. In Iitate village, Fukushima prefecture, 293 bags containing radioactive waste, collected following the

Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in 2011, were swept away by floodwaters. As of this writing, only 171

had been retrieved while there was evidence that others had leaked their contents. More than 10,000

homes were without power on Friday and, as of Monday, 8,000 homes had no clean water supply.

Disruptions to telecommunications were also widely reported.

Based on data from three major non-life Japanese insurers, it was estimated that insured losses from the

floods would minimally be JPY30 billion (USD250 million). Economic losses will be even higher.

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief

Miscellaneous

The National Snow and Ice Data Center announced on Tuesday that summer Arctic sea ice reached its

fourth lowest level on record last week since satellites began measuring sea ice coverage in 1979. Sea ice coverage was just 1.70 million square miles (4.40 million square kilometers) on September 11 which

was 240,000 square miles (621,600 square kilometers) less than the 2014 minimum amount. The

minimum extent was reached four days earlier than the average minimum date of September 15 (1981-

2010) and scientists were keen to point out that this extent could still fall further depending on other

factors such as a change in wind patterns or a period of late season melt. Summer minimum sea ice coverage was at its maximum in 1980 when it covered 2.91 million square miles (7.54 million square

kilometers) but plummeted to its lowest level ever in 2012 when it covered just 1.30 million square miles

(3.37 million square kilometers). Also of note, the nine lowest extents of summer sea ice on record have

occurred in the last nine years.

Flooding, Panama

Following torrential rainfall last Thursday, portions of Panama City were inundated by floodwaters and

landslides affecting almost 3,200 residents. Worst affected were San Miguelito district and Juan Diaz

village. A total of 455 homes were damaged while 91 others were destroyed. There were no reports of

any fatalities however 45 individuals sustained injuries.

Flooding, South Sudan

Between two and three thousand households in South Sudan’s Jonglei state were displaced late last

week as persistent floods in the region worsened. The town of Bor, on the eastern bank of the White Ni le

river, was worst affected. Local authorities were working on a flood mitigation plan to drain the affected

areas. There were no reports of any fatalities or casualties. Flooding, Ireland

Low pressure areas Leo and Michael brought heavy rainfall to western portions of Ireland on Friday and Sunday that prompted flash floods for some areas, including portions of Cork, Mayo, and Clare. A

weather station at Tully, Galway, reported 44.5 millimeters (1.75 inches) of rain in 24 hours from Friday

through Saturday then a further 53.8 millimeters (2.12 inches) in 24 hours from Sunday through Monday.

One individual died in Mayo on Sunday after his car was trapped by flash floods. Four others had to be

rescued in Cork after their vehicle was submerged by floodwaters. At least one landslide was reported.

Drought, Philippines

A state of calamity was declared in Ifugao province, Luzon Island, as a result of a prolonged dry spell that

has been affecting the region. Local officials reported that almost 7,500 hectares (18,500 acres) of

agricultural land was affected resulting in losses of PHP454 million (USD9.7 million) in corn production

alone. In addition, they reported losses of PHP1.2 million (USD26,000) in fish production.



Flooding, Italy Flash floods struck northwestern portions of Italy following torrential rainfall on Monday. The town of

Piacenza was worst affected though the municipalities of Farini, Pontedellolio, Ferriere, Bettola, Ottone,

and Corte Brugnatella were also impacted. Local reports suggest that up to 330 millimeters (13 inches) of

rain fell in just four hours. At least two individuals died and one other was missing near Piacenza as

floodwaters poured down roads. The rain also triggered a landslide in Veneto region that prompted the closure of a highway. Authorities in Emilia-Romagna released EUR2.0 million (USD2.2 million) in

emergency funds following the floods.

Tropical Storm Vamco, Indochina

Tropical Storm Vamco made landfall in Vietnam’s Quang Nam province, approximately 45 kilometers (25 miles) southeast of Hoi An. The storm brought torrential rainfall to portions of Vietnam, Laos, Thailand,

and Cambodia that triggered flash floods in all three countries. Da Nang, Vietnam, recorded a 24-hour

rainfall total of 215.0 millimeters (8.46 inches) on Monday while Saravane, Laos, reported 72.0 millimeters

(2.83 inches). Ubon Ratchathani recorded 82.0 millimeters (3.23 inches) on Monday. In addition, wind

gusts of 72 kph (45 mph) were reported at Da Nang as the storm made landfall. Numerous trees were downed across Da Nang city while some light structural damage was also reported. Many schools and

businesses were closed on Monday afternoon as was Da Nang’s airport, causing the cancellation of 27

flights, as the storm made landfall.

Volcano, Japan

Mount Aso in Kumamoto prefecture erupted on Monday at 9:43 AM (JST) local time (00:43 UTC) prompting the evacuation of more than 100 tourists. The eruption sent a plume of ash two kilometers (one

mile) into the atmosphere causing the diversion or cancellation of at least ten flights from Kumamoto

Airport. There were no reports of any fatalities, casualties, or property damages arising from the eruption.



Current Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Select Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from

Last Year (°C)

Eastern Pacif ic Ocean (555 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 28.0 +0.8

Tropical Atlantic Ocean (1,590 miles ESE of Trinidad) 29.0 +0.8

Western Gulf of Mexico (60 miles SE of Corpus Christi, TX) 28.7 -0.2

Eastern Gulf of Mexico (130 miles ESE of Pensacola, FL) 29.1 -0.8

Carolinas Coastline (45 miles SE of Charleston, SC) 27.6 -0.8

Northeastern United States (15 miles SE of Portland, ME) 16.3 +1.2

Sources: NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center

El Niño Update

El Niño conditions are present.

Positive equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

There is a greater than 95% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the Northern

Hemisphere winter (Southern Hemisphere summer) 2015-2016. The El Niño conditions will linger and gradually weaken through the Northern Hemisphere spring (Southern Hemisphere fall) 2016.

Source: Climate Prediction Center



Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone

** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest

Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion**

TY Krovanh 21.7° N, 144.2° E 90 mph 280 miles (455 kilometers) SE of Iwo To, Japan NW at 8 mph

TD Nine 16.3° N, 45.3° W 35 mph 1,065 miles (1,715 kilometers) E of Lesser Antil les NW at 7 mph



Global Tropics Outlook




Earthquake Activity: September 11 – September 17

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information

Source: United States Geological Survey

Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter

9/13/2015 25.156°N 109.377°W 6.6 10.0 km 59 kilometers (37 miles) SSW of Topolobampo, Mexico

9/16/2015 1.852°N 126.380°E 6.3 52.0 km 140 kilometers (86 miles) ENE of Bitung, Indonesia

9/16/2015 5.971°S 151.445°E 6.1 6.0 km 151 kilometers (94 miles) ESE of Kimbe, Papua New Guinea

9/16/2015 31.570°S 71.654°W 8.3 25.0 km 46 kilometers (29 miles) W of Il lapel, Chile


9/16/2015 31.841°S 71.566°W 6.1 10.0 km 44 kilometers (27 miles) WSW of Il lapel, Chile



9/17/2015 31.149°S 71.553°W 6.4 35.0 km 64 kilometers (40 miles) NW of Il lapel, Chile

9/17/2015 31.083°S 71.296°W 6.5 35.0 km 54 kilometers (34 miles) S of Ovalle, Chile




U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats

The arrival of upper-level moisture is poised to bring heavy rainfall chances across parts of the Desert

Southwest by the first half of next week. Parts of Arizona will be particularly at risk of heavy rains and

flash flooding.

Building high pressure will lead to well below normal temperatures for northern sections of Alaska

next week.

Severe drought conditions persist for most of the West, and parts of the central/southern Plains and

the Southeast. Despite recent rains in parts of southern California and the Southwest, it has done

little to mitigate the severity of the drought in the region.




Current U.S. Watches, Warnings and Advisories

Source: NOAA



Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage

Source: United States Geological Survey

Location Flood Stage Current Stage % of Full Capacity

Cottonwood Creek near Seward, Oklahoma 22.00 31.27 142%

Aucilla River near Nutall Rise, Florida 4.60 5.13 112%

Peace River at Arcadia, Florida 11.00 11.92 108%

Santa Fe River at Worthington Springs, Florida 17.00 17.64 104%

Myakka River near Sarasota, Florida 7.00 7.21 103%



Source Information

Powerful M8.3 earthquake strikes near Chile coast:

Numerous articles published by The Guardian

8.3-Magnitude Quake Rattles North Chile, 1 Million Evacuate, The Associated Press

United States Geological Survey

Chile’s National Emergency Office of the Ministry of Interior and Public Security (ONEMI)

Government of Chile

Wildfires destroy hundreds of homes in California:

Northern California Wildfire Kills 1, Destroys 400 Homes, The Associated Press

1 Killed in Valley Fire Burning in Lake County, CBS

Cal Fire

National Interagency Fire Center

Deadly flash floods hit Utah:

Floods Kill at Least 16 in Polygamous Town, National Park, The Associated Press

Arizona Monsoon Closes Elementary School, Strands Vehicles , The Associated Press

The Latest: Thousands Without Power in Southern California, The Associated Press

Record Southern California Rain Swamps Roads, Swells Rivers , The Associated Press

United States National Weather Service

Update: Japan Floods:

Fifteen People Missing in Deadly Ibaraki Flooding are Confirmed Safe, The Japan Times

All Missing Joso City Residents Found Safe, NHK World New s

Rescuing the Stranded, NHK World New s

64 Overflowing Rivers Caused Severe Flooding, NHK World New s

Flood Leaves 40 Sq. Km Area Under Water in Joso, NHK World New s

Bags Containing Radioactive Waste Swept Away by Floods, Japan Today

Typhoon-related insurance claims surge in Japan, Nikkei Asian Review

Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief:

Floods Displace over 2,000 Households in S. Sudan’s Jonglei State, Sudan Tribune

Skellig Michael ‘Star Wars’ Filming Cancelled Amid High Winds, The Irish Times

Man Dies After Car Gets Caught in Flood on Achill Island, The Irish Times

Ifugao Town Under State of Calamity due to Dry Spell, Philippines Information Agency

Typhoon Vamco Brings Heavy Rains, Strong Winds to Da Nang, Thanh Nien New s

Storm May Hit Central Vietnam Later Today, Thanh Nien New s

Aso Eruption Forces Dozens of Tourists to Evacuate, The Japan Times

Feds: Arctic Sea Ice Levels Shrink to 4th Lowest Level, The Associated Press

Body Found of One of Two Missing, Renzi to Visit Flood-Hit Piacenza Area, ANSA New s Agency

National Snow and Ice Data Center

Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil (Panama)

World Meteorological Organization

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Japan Meteorological Agency

Emilia-Romagna Office of Public Relations



Contact Information

Steve Bowen

Associate Director (Meteorologist)

Aon Benfield Analytics

Impact Forecasting

+1.312.381.5883

[email protected]

Claire Kennedy

Senior Analyst (Meteorologist)

Aon Benfield Analytics

Impact Forecasting

+65.6645.0110

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



About Aon Benfield

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informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely

information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented

at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used

to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be

accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no

official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have

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