weekly market revie · 2016-11-28 · european central bank’s chief economist peter praet that...

Weekly Market Review March 20th, 2016 – March 26th, 2016

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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Americas

US’ 4Q15 GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.4% (vs. earlier estimate of 0.7% increase), beating consensus estimate

Durable goods order fell 2.8% in Feb, after rising 4.2% (revised) in Jan, less than estimates

Existing home sales slid 7.1% to an annual rate of 5.08mn in Feb (vs. 5.47mn in Jan), less-than consensus

Economists lowered 2016 Brazil’s growth forecast to -3.6% as deepening political crisis dims outlook for turnaround

Europe

Markit’s Eurozone composite output PMI reached 3-month high of 53.7 in Mar due to pick-up in services activity

GfK German consumer confidence index for April slipped to 9.4 from 9.5 in Mar as global risks dampened outlook

France’s 4Q15 GDP rose 0.3% (vs. 0.4% in 3Q15). FY15 GDP grew 1.2% (vs. 1.1% estimated earlier & 0.2% in FY14)

UK retail sales inched down 0.4% MoM in Feb after growing 2.3% in Jan, slower than expected decline of 0.7%

Rest of the World

Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Asian Business Sentiment Index rose to 65 in 1Q16 from a 4-year low of 58 in 4Q15

Markit/Nikkei Japan’s manufacturing PMI entered into contraction mode in Mar, recording 49.1 (vs. 50.1 in Feb)

China’s industrial firms profit in Jan & Feb combined rose 4.8% YoY, following a 4.7% YoY decline in Dec 2015

South Korea's 4Q15 GDP growth revised up to 0.7% QoQ (vs. 0.6% earlier). YoY, GDP rose 3.1% (vs. 2.7% in 3Q15)

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

S&P 500 2,035.94 -0.67 -0.39 17.22 2.22

DJI 17,515.73 -0.49 0.52 16.08 2.59

Nasdaq Comp 4,773.51 -0.46 -4.67 20.24 1.33

Euro Stoxx 600 335.10 -1.93 -8.40 15.20 3.70

FTSE 100 6,106.48 -1.34 -2.18 16.30 4.50

Dax 9,851.35 -1.00 -8.30 12.46 3.04

CAC 40 4,329.68 -2.98 -6.63 14.21 3.46

Nikkei 225 17,002.75 1.66 -10.67 17.90 1.92

Hang Seng 20,345.61 -1.58 -7.16 10.83 4.15

Brazil - Bovespa

49,657.39 -2.28 14.55 13.89 3.74

Russia - Micex 1,866.23 -2.50 5.95 6.78 4.49

BSE Sensex 25,337.56 1.54 -2.99 18.14 1.61

Shanghai Comp 2,979.43 0.82 -15.82 12.82 2.05

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

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UAE

Arabtec Holding won a contract worth AED1.7bn to build 1,100 houses in the eastern emirate of Fujairah

NMC Health expects FY16 revenue to rise 28% to AED1.2bn led by recent & future acquisitions and organic growth

Waha Capital will invest at least $100mn in its core business, with the focus being on acquisition deals in FY16

Aabar Investments signed a 5-years tenure loan worth €3.6bn, to replace several of its existing debts

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia plans to form SAR5bn remortgage company, which will be 51% owned by the Public Investment Fund

Saudi Arabian Airlines intends to raise around $1bn in loans to fund the purchase of 18 Airbus aircrafts

Bank Al-Jazira said it will repurchase SAR1bn Sukuk on Mar 29

Saudi Stock Exchange reportedly asked banks to pitch for roles advising on its own initial public share (IPO) offer

Rest of GCC

Capital Intelligence revised Qatar National Bank’s long term foreign currency ratings outlook to ‘negative’

Boubyan Bank aims to issue $250mn worth Sukuk by April-end to fulfill Basel III requirements & cover capital needs

Bank Muscat reportedly seeks to raise loan worth up to $300mn to combat liquidity squeeze in markets

Investcorp’s US-based real estate arm acquired five residential properties for around $220mn

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

Dubai 3,318.73 -1.95 5.32 9.45 3.75

Abu Dhabi 4,331.91 -3.28 0.57 9.68 5.71

Saudi Tadawul 6,350.90 -0.68 -8.11 12.68 4.01

Qatar Index 10,285.50 -1.35 -1.38 12.00 4.09

Kuwait Index 5,268.45 0.12 -6.17 – 4.79

Oman MSM 30 5,533.58 3.88 2.36 9.46 4.48

Bahrain All Share

1,158.95 -0.33 -4.68 – 5.66

Egypt EGX 30 7,548.22 0.84 7.74 8.99 1.44

Istanbul 100 Index

81,356.45 -1.91 13.43 9.22 3.07

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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Bloomberg dollar spot index rose 1.27% this week after Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said officials may be getting close to lifting rates again and a report showed the US economy grew at a faster pace than previously estimated in 4Q15, bolstering the case for raising interest rates

British pound depreciated 1.51% against euro over the past five days, hit by a perceived rise in the chances of a British exit from the European Union and companies and fund investors hedging against it

Offshore yuan weakened 0.95% against US dollar, posting its biggest weekly decline since Jan, driven down primarily by strength in the US dollar as well as a media report that suggested the IMF is pressuring China for more transparency on its currency-intervention methods

Brazil’s real depreciated for a second week against US dollar by 1.50% as Brazil’s fiscal picture deteriorated further with no relief in sight and as specter of higher US interest rates sapped demand for emerging market’s assets

Russian ruble gained marginally by 0.10% against US dollar in the week ended Mar 25, supported by end of the month tax payments

Canadian dollar declined 2.05% against US dollar from Mar 18, pressured by lower oil prices and Federal Reserve‘s rate hike speculation

Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year %

USD Index 96.2730 1.25 -1.22 -2.39 -1.05

EUR/USD 1.1167 -0.91 1.40 2.81 2.55

GBP/USD 1.4132 -2.38 1.47 -4.10 -5.02

USD/JPY 113.0800 1.37 0.80 -5.94 -5.08

USD/CHF 0.9776 0.84 -1.13 -2.44 1.64

USD/CAD 1.3270 2.05 -3.15 -4.11 5.24

USD/BRL 3.6786 1.50 -7.05 -7.12 13.20

USD/RUB 68.1750 -0.10 -10.02 -5.99 17.85

USD/INR 66.6362 0.20 -2.81 0.73 6.76

USD/CNY 6.5160 0.69 -0.24 0.34 4.83

USD/AUD 1.3319 1.34 -4.15 -2.94 3.19

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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Brent crude futures fell 1.84% while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures inched up 0.05% this week after a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories jumped in the week ended Mar 18 while recent strength in the US dollar also impacted negatively

Gold prices in the spot market ended 3.09% down from Mar 18 as shifting expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase lowered the appeal of safe-haven metal

Shanghai steel rebar futures climbed 7.99% in the week ended Mar 25 as growing domestic orders and drawdown in inventories suggest demand is on the mend as warmer weather spurs construction activity

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cocoa futures shed 5.00% during the week as an improving outlook for production in West Africa weighed on the market

Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rubber futures rose 3.17% in the week, supported by a more than 3% drop in Japanese crude rubber inventories

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDE) palm oil futures edged up 1.03% over the past five trading days as a report showed shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-25 rose 12.6% MoM, supported by higher exports to India and China


Brent – ICE 40.44 -1.84 17.52 8.48 -28.31

WTI – Nymex 39.46 0.05 22.74 6.53 -19.26

Gold Spot 1,216.47 -3.09 -1.00 14.61 1.48

Silver Spot 15.17 -3.98 -0.41 9.49 -10.56

Copper - CMX 222.45 -2.41 6.13 4.19 -19.84

S&P GSCI Spot Index

327.91 -2.21 10.09 5.22 -18.58

Baltic Dry Index 406.00 2.78 26.09 -15.06 -31.88

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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The US 10-year bond yield edged up 2.68 basis points (bps) this week on hawkish remarks from a number of Fed officials, such as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and St Loius Fed President James Bullard, over past few days

Germany’s 10-year bund yield inched down 3.2 bps in the week, aided by signals from policy makers including the European Central Bank’s Chief Economist Peter Praet that the central bank could cut interest rates further

Turkey’s central bank left its key rate unchanged at 7.5% for the 13th consecutive month on Mar 24 but cut its overnight lending rate, the upper end of its rate corridor, by 25 bps to 10.5%. The central bank said improvement in the underlying core inflation trend remains limited, necessitating the maintenance of a tight liquidity stance

Hungary's central bank unexpectedly cut the base rate by 15 bps to 1.20%, effective from Mar 23 and took the deposit rate to negative territory (-0.05%), as inflation is expected remain subdued in the coming months

The Philippines central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a 12th straight meeting at 4% on Mar 23, as an anticipated boost to the economy from a May election allows policy makers to resist joining a wave of monetary easing

Taiwan's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for a 3rd successive policy session by 12.5 bps to 1.5% on Mar 24, in a bid to support the sluggish economic recovery and boost subdued inflation expectations


USD-10yr 1.90 1.43 10.30 -16.28 -4.49

USD-2yr 0.87 4.02 18.43 -17.07 42.40

Fed Funds Rate 0.37 0.00 -2.63 85.00 236.36

USD-3m Libor 0.63 0.69 -0.08 2.60 130.21

USD-6m Libor 0.91 2.21 3.39 7.65 126.65

German-10yr 0.18 -15.09 -1.64 -71.38 -16.28

UK-10yr 1.45 0.35 1.32 -25.87 -8.21

Japan-10yr (0.10) 0.00 9,700.00 -137.69 -130.25

AED-3m EIBOR 1.03 -0.06 -1.21 -2.78 46.21

AED-6m EIBOR 1.27 -0.04 0.84 4.29 47.58

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Ukraine -13.65% -11.48%

2 Namibia -4.23% -5.41%

3 Austria -4.12% -4.99%

4 Sweden -3.31% -4.16%

5 Abu Dhabi–UAE -3.28% -3.28%

6 Argentina -3.16% -1.34%

7 France -2.98% -3.86%

8 Spain -2.89% -3.77%

9 Czech Republic -2.83% -3.98%

10 Finland -2.81% -3.70%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Oman 3.88% 3.89%

2 Morocco 2.61% 2.08%

3 Croatia 1.91% 0.87%

4 Japan 1.66% 0.29%

5 India 1.54% 1.34%

6 Greece 1.54% 0.61%

7 Lebanon 1.45% 1.45%

8 Kenya 1.29% 1.27%

9 Serbia 1.13% 0.22%

10 Lithuania 0.93% 0.01%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Peru 20.06% 21.47%

2 Kazakhstan 19.03% 18.18%

3 Brazil 14.55% 23.34%

4 Colombia 14.50% 18.28%

5 Russia 13.89% 13.89%

6 Turkey 13.43% 15.06%

7 Namibia 11.02% 11.12%

8 Slovakia 10.83% 13.94%

9 Tunisia 9.01% 9.38%

10 Thailand 8.29% 10.56%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Ukraine -20.24% -26.14%

2 Mongolia -15.88% -18.14%

3 China -15.82% -16.10%

4 Italy -15.19% -12.80%

5 Switzerland -11.82% -9.61%

6 Greece -11.77% -9.29%

7 Sri Lanka -11.63% -13.44%

8 Japan -10.67% -5.03%

9 Nigeria -9.57% -9.44%

10 Belgium -8.96% -6.40%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Natural Gas -5.30%

2 Cocoa -5.00%

3 Coffee -4.71%

4 Feeder Cattle -4.53%

5 Silver -3.98%

6 Gasoil -3.80%

7 Heat Oil -3.32%

8 Gold -3.09%

9 Aluminium -2.99%

10 Live Cattle -2.84%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Steel Rebar 7.99%

2 Orange Juice 6.38%

3 Bean Meal 3.26%

4 Rubber 3.17%

5 Gasoline 2.70%

6 Tin 2.37%

7 Soybeans 1.45%

8 Palm Oil 1.03%

9 Cotton 0.98%

10 Corn 0.82%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Steel Rebar 27.00%

2 Tin 18.86%

3 Lean Hogs 16.43%

4 Lumber 16.07%

5 Gasoline 15.69%

6 Gold 14.61%

7 Rubber 12.70%

8 Zinc 11.50%

9 Palm Oil 10.93%

10 Gasoil 10.57%

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Natural Gas -22.72%

2 Rough Rice -11.24%

3 Cotton -8.79%

4 Cocoa -7.75%

5 Feeder Cattle -6.64%

6 Orange Juice -2.93%

7 Aluminium -2.09%

8 Nickel -1.93%

9 Lead -1.59%

10 Wheat -1.49%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

weekly market revie · 2016-11-28 · european central bank’s chief economist peter praet that...

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