weekly market review€¦ · chinese yuan gained 0.07% in the week as the cease-fire agreement in...

Weekly Market Review February 8, 2015 – February 14, 2015

February 15, 2015

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index unexpectedly slipped to 93.6 in Feb from 98.1 in Jan

Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.5 points to 97.9 in Jan, raising worries over the near-term outlook

Retail sales slipped 0.8% in Jan, declining for a 2nd straight month, as households cut bank on purchases

Initial unemployment claims rose by 25,000 to 304,000 for the week ended Feb 7, more than expectation

Euro Zone grew by 0.9% YoY & 0.3% QoQ in 4Q2014, aided by surprise expansion in Germany

Sentix Euro zone sentiment index rose to +12.4 in Feb from +0.9 in Jan as sentiment improves on ECB bond buying

Germany grew by 0.7% in 4Q2014, exceeding 0.3% growth expectation and pointing toward a stronger 2015

Inflation shrank 0.4% YoY in Jan for the 1st time in 5 years, largely due to lower energy prices

British industrial output fell 0.2% MoM in Dec, signaling that the recovery lost some pace towards the end of 2014

Greece's economy contracted by 0.2% QoQ while it expanded by 1.7% YoY in 4Q2014

Industrial output fell 3.8% YoY in Dec after an increase of 2.5% in Nov. Output shrank by 2.7% YoY in 2014

Italy’s GDP dropped 0.3% YoY but remained flat QoQ in 4Q2014 as weak domestic demand offset rising export

Switzerland reported a deficit of $133.92mn in 2014, as receipts and expenditures came in below budget

The French economy grew by 0.1% in 4Q2014 and by 0.4% in 2014, helped by consumer and public spending

Japan’s core machinery orders rose 8.3% MoM in Dec at the fastest pace in 6 months, a positive sign for recovery

Current account surplus shrank 18.8% for a fourth straight year to Yen 2.26tn, smallest on record in 2014

China's consumer price index rose 0.8% YoY in Jan to hit a 5-year low, underscoring deepening economic weakness

Chinese banks extended $235.6bn in new loans in Jan. Outstanding loan growth stood at 13.9%

South Africa’s unemployment rate dipped to 24.3% in 4Q2014 to a one year low from 25.4% in 3Q2014

S&P affirmed sovereign credit ratings of Abu Dhabi and Qatar while it downgraded Bahrain and Oman. S&P also lowered its outlook on Saudi Arabia from stable to negative

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD %

S&P 500 2,096.99 41.52 2.02 1.85

DJI 18,019.35 195.06 1.09 1.10

Nasdaq Comp 4,893.84 149.44 3.15 3.33

Euro Stoxx 600 377.07 3.76 1.01 10.08

FTSE 100 6,873.52 20.08 0.29 4.68

Dax 10,963.40 117.01 1.08 11.81

CAC 40 4,759.36 68.33 1.46 11.39

Nikkei 225 17,913.36 264.86 1.50 2.65

Hang Seng 24,682.54 3.15 0.01 4.56

Brazil - Bovespa 50,635.92 1,843.65 3.78 1.26

Russia - Micex 1,838.18 82.73 4.71 31.62

BSE Sensex 29,094.93 377.02 1.31 5.80

Shanghai Comp 3,203.83 127.92 4.16 -0.95


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Damac Properties’ net profit surged 190% to AED3.5bn in 2014; recommends 10% bonus shares totaling AED0.5bn

Aldar Properties reports AED2.24bn profit in 2014 vs. AED2.25bn in 2013; plans to cut debt to AED6bn by 2015-end

Aabar Investments purchased 24.8mn shares (0.565%) in Arabtec Holding, increasing Aabar’s total holding to 36.1%

ADNOC signed a $500mn technical agreement with Occidental Petroleum to develop Al-Hail and Ghasha oilfields

Union Cement Company’s net profit in FY2014 jumped around 67% to AED84.8mn; recommends 10% dividend

Meraas Holding seeks AED860mn loan to fund the development of retail space around Ferris wheel

Dubai-based Buroj Property will start work on Buroj Ozon project in Bosnia at a cost of around AED10bn

Dubai Parks & Resorts expects AED2.4bn revenue from Dubai theme parks in the 1st year of operations

Abu Dhabi Gas Ind. and Abu Dhabi Gas Liquefaction awarded ~$1.6bn worth contracts to expand the UAE’s gas processing facilities

S&P affirmed Saudi-based Dar Al-Arkan Real-Estate’s Corporate Credit rating. Downgraded outlook to negative

Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari Sons won $170mn contract from Ma’aden Waad Al Shamal Phosphate Co.

Saudi Transport & Investment Co. agreed to acquire 95% stake in Arabian Co. for Security Services for SAR180mn

Advanced Petrochemical Co. reported ~35% rise in FY2014 net profit to SAR751mn; proposes 7.5% cash dividend

Saudi Cement Company recommended 25% cash dividend for 2H2014 amounting SAR382.5mn

German e-commerce company, Rocket Internet agreed to acquire Kuwait-based Talabat for around $169.6mn

QNB Group mandated consortium of banks to arrange a new $3bn 3-year term-loan for general corporate purposes

Commercial Bank of Qatar’s bottom-line rose 17.2% YoY to QAR1.9bn in 2014; recommends cash dividend & bonus

United Development Company reported ~94% surge in FY2014 net profit to QAR626mn; board proposed dividend

Bahrain’s BBK reported an 11.2% rise in FY2014 earnings to BHD50mn; recommends 20% cash dividend & 5% bonus

3 US universities agreed to establish a $103mn university at Gulf Finance House’s Tunis Financial Harbor project


Dubai 3,903.38 16.85 0.43 3.43

Abu Dhabi 4,626.92 18.36 0.40 2.16

Saudi Tadawul 9,257.49 77.38 0.84 11.09

Qatar Index 12,607.60 86.94 0.69 2.62

Kuwait Index 6,695.89 -4.17 -0.06 2.45

Oman MSM 30 6,657.85 -29.91 -0.45 4.96

Bahrain All

Share 1,447.47 11.53 0.80 1.47

Egypt EGX 30 9,747.36 -218.07 -2.19 9.19

Istanbul 100

Index 85,809.25 821.83 0.97 0.10


DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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US dollar weakened against Japanese yen during the week by 0.3% as investors’ views on US consumer spending and economic growth deteriorated, pushing back market expectations for higher interest rates by midyear

Euro appreciated 0.7% in the week against the dollar, registering a third straight week of gain as dollar weakened by some softer US economic reports while euro strengthened on a stronger than expected German growth data

Brazil’s real declined for a third straight week by 1.9% in the week against dollar amid concern that President Dilma Rousseff’s economic team is struggling to address stalled growth and above-target inflation

Chinese Yuan gained 0.07% in the week as the cease-fire agreement in Ukraine boosted demand for emerging-market assets. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China raised the Yuan’s reference rate by 0.07% to 6.1288 a dollar

Canadian dollar strengthened 0.63% in the week against US dollar as a report from Statistics Canada showed that manufacturing sales rose 1.7% in Dec, far higher than economists’ expectations of 0.5% increase

Venezuela tweaked its foreign exchange system during the week. The new platform, called Marginal Currency System or Simadi, is the 3rd system in a three-tier exchange control mechanism which will allow for legal trading of foreign currency based on supply and demand, while the government will still sell dollars for most imports at 6.3 and 12 bolívares


EUR/USD 1.1394 0.0078 0.69 -5.82

GBP/USD 1.5395 0.0152 1.00 -1.17

AUD/USD 0.7762 -0.0034 -0.44 -5.05

USD/JPY 118.7500 -0.3700 -0.31 -0.86

USD/CHF 0.9322 0.0054 0.58 -6.25

USD/CAD 1.2448 -0.0079 -0.63 7.12

USD/BRl 2.8347 0.0528 1.90 6.66

USD/RUB 63.4417 -3.4153 -5.11 4.45

USD/INR 62.1963 0.4938 0.80 -1.34

USD/CNY 6.2405 -0.0041 -0.07 0.56

DXY Index 94.2010 -0.4970 -0.52 4.36

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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Brent closed up for a second straight week by gaining 4.8% as it crossed $60/barrel mark after data showed the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States fell in the week to its lowest since August 2011

Gold closed down for a 3rd week by 0.4% since the outlook for dollar remained upbeat despite the current pause in its long-term rally, as many investors continued to price in an interest rate hike by the Fed some time in 2015

Palm oil futures dropped by 2.5% in the week over concerns on sluggish customers and exports demand as market digested recent news of Malaysia’s plans to re-impose taxes on palm oil exports

Cocoa futures gained approximately 7% in the week on weather-linked supply concerns in key producing nations of Ghana and Ivory Coast in West Africa

Baltic Dry Index lost 5.2% in the week as China curbs coal buying at a time when the largest-ever fleet is competing to haul cargoes. Rates declined for all except one of the ship types tracked by the Baltic Exchange


Gold spot 1,229.43 -4.49 -0.36 3.76

Silver spot 17.36 0.64 3.85 10.54

Copper-CMX 260.50 1.95 0.75 -7.80

Brent - ICE 61.52 2.84 4.84 7.31

WTI - Nymex 52.78 1.09 2.11 -1.71

S&P GSCI Spot

Index 425.99 15.58 3.80 1.88

Baltic Dry Index 530.00 -29.00 -5.19 -32.23

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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US treasuries continue falling and yields rose further by 9.4 bps to 2.05% after January jobs data last week boosted expectations that Federal Reserve may increase interest rates in the coming months

UK government bonds fell for a second week as yields gained by 3 bps to 1.68% after a report showed Germany’s growth beat forecasts, reducing concern that the euro-region economy will be a drag on Britain

Greek 10-yr bond yield fell around 82 bps in the week to 9.12% as Greece agreed on Feb 12 to talk to its creditors about the way out of its hated international bailout, a political retreat that could prevent its new government from running out of money as early as next month

The Riksbank, Sweden central bank shocked markets after it cut its key repo rate to -0.1% from zero where it had been since Oct 2014. It also announced its intentions to buy bonds worth 10bn Swedish crowns

China’s benchmark seven-day repurchase rate climbed for a fifth week by 31 bps to 4.65% as IPOs by about 24 companies tightened cash supply, locking up 2.05tn Yuan ($328bn) in the past five days

Short-term borrowing costs in India jumped by around 25-30 bps after Reserve Bank of India barred foreign institutional investors (FIIs) from investing in securities below three year maturities, forcing corporate to stay away from raising short-term fund


USD-1w Libor 0.14 0.0015 1.10 2.22

USD-3m Libor 0.26 0.0025 0.98 0.98

USD-6m Libor 0.38 0.0145 4.00 3.89

USD-10yr 2.05 0.0937 4.79 -5.56

AED-1m EIBOR 0.38 0.0000 0.00 -3.26

AED-3m EIBOR 0.69 0.0000 0.00 2.11

AED-12m EIBOR 1.01 0.0000 0.00 -0.28

UK-10yr 1.68 0.0300 1.82 -4.56

Japan-10yr 0.42 0.0840 25.15 29.81

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Nigeria -8.00% -12.30%

2 Venezuela -3.53% -3.53%

3 Colombia -2.73% -2.86%

4 Egypt -2.19% -2.17%

5 Pakistan -2.06% -2.31%

6 Jordan -1.56% -1.59%

7 Mongolia -0.92% -1.58%

8 Montenegro -0.92% -0.33%

9 Kazakhstan -0.87% -0.85%

10 Malaysia -0.68% -1.58%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Slovakia 11.70% 12.47%

2 Greece 11.28% 12.05%

3 Russia 10.61% 10.61%

4 Argentina 6.15% 5.86%

5 Austria 5.48% 6.21%

6 Ukraine 4.90% 1.48%

7 Czech Republic 4.52% 5.54%

8 Hungary 4.29% 4.85%

9 China 4.16% 4.23%

10 Namibia 3.86% 2.42%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Russia 15.60% 15.60%

2 Slovakia 14.38% 7.72%

3 Finland 12.99% 6.42%

4 Estonia 12.79% 6.23%

5 Sweden 12.12% 3.91%

6 Germany 11.81% 5.30%

7 Italy 11.53% 5.04%

8 Argentina 11.46% 8.67%

9 France 11.39% 4.91%

10 Portugal 11.17% 4.70%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Nigeria -20.41% -28.27%

2 Cyprus -11.32% -16.48%

3 Kazakhstan -11.08% -12.38%

4 Venezuela -9.57% -9.57%

5 Colombia -7.61% -7.93%

6 Mongolia -6.39% -9.80%

7 Peru -5.56% -8.68%

8 Ghana -4.95% -10.18%

9 Bulgaria -4.81% -10.30%

10 Mauritius -4.11% -8.71%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


Page I 9

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Nickel -3.87%

2 Palm Oil -2.53%

3 Coffee -2.19%

4 Rough Rice -2.00%

5 Aluminium -1.84%

6 Platinum -1.32%

7 Tin -1.22%

8 Lumber -1.05%

9 Zinc -0.55%

10 Gold -0.36%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Natural Gas 8.72%

2 Heat Oil 7.19%

3 Cocoa 6.99%

4 Brent Crude 6.44%

5 Gasoil 5.23%

6 Rubber 4.63%

7 Gasoline 4.30%

8 Silver 3.85%

9 Lean Hogs 3.37%

10 Sugar 2.55%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Gasoil 13.91%

2 Gasoline 13.30%

3 Rubber 11.39%

4 Silver 10.54%

5 Brent Crude 7.31%

6 Heat Oil 6.76%

7 Natural Gas 6.65%

8 Cotton 4.03%

9 Gold 3.76%

10 Sugar 2.48%

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Lean Hogs -18.69%

2 Steel Rebar -14.04%

3 Ethanol -11.37%

4 Wheat -9.62%

5 Bean Meal -8.86%

6 Rough Rice -8.40%

7 Copper -7.80%

8 Feeder Cattle -7.11%

9 Tin -5.80%

10 Lumber -5.71%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

weekly market review€¦ · chinese yuan gained 0.07% in the week as the cease-fire agreement in...

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