wef digital ecosystem scenario 2015 executive summary 2010
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W O
R L D S C E N
A R I O
S E R I E S
COMMITTED TOIMPROVING THE STATE
OF THE WORLD
Digital EcosystemConvergence between IT, Telecoms,Media and Entertainment:Scenarios to 2015
Executive Summary
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The views expressed in this publication do notnecessarily reflect the views of the World EconomicForum.
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To understand how the Digital Ecosystem could
plausibly evolve in the coming 10 years, we need to
look at the critical uncertainties and those factors
shaping the ecosystems evolution.
Broadband adoption, technological advancesand decreased operating costs have pushed the IT,
Telecommunications and Media and Entertainment
industries into a period of great flux. As they
converge, they are forming a space we could call
the Digital Ecosystem.
This emerging Digital Ecosystem is generating
many risks and challenges for government policies,
as well as presenting new opportunities for creating
social and economic value. Just as any healthy eco-
system enables its stakeholders to interact to the
benefit of all, a healthy Digital Ecosystem will simulta-
neously enable its commercial participants to create
economic value and deliver well-being to society.
The critical uncertainties we focus on are user
empowerment, market structure, market regulation,
Intellectual Property Rights, security and privacy.
User empowerment
Digital users are taking control of when, where and
how they consume digital content. They are no
longer mere consumers: they increasingly participatein the Digital Ecosystem in other ways as contributors
to online communities and as creators and distributors
of digital content and services. Communities are also
being created around infrastructure development,
such as when members of a community agree to
share their wireless internet access.
Through communities, users interact and share
digital content with like-minded people and get access
to specialist knowledge and advice. Communities
also present opportunities for opinions to crystallize.
Most are not industry-led, but rather evolve organically.
Their power is growing as pressure from communities
increasingly often influences business decisions.
Increasing numbers of digital users are creating
digital content in forms such as blogs, web pages,
photos, videos, characters in games, animations or
music. These creations can be original or remixed
from existing content. South Korea and Japan, both
considered more mature digital markets, show very
high levels of involvement and growth in user-
generated content and community participation(figures 1 and 2). In time, the young and highly
active contributors to online content will grow older and
their behaviour patterns will become the standard.
Increasingly we note the fertilization of the
traditional media by the online world. For example,
user-generated content is increasingly seen on
traditional media channels, such as television
programmes and newspapers. Services are arising
to facilitate this Scoopt, for example, brokers blog
content to news editors and takes a commission.
Introduction
Source: 2006 Informatization White Paper, National Computerization Agency, Republic of Korea
contribute to online contentSouth Korean young internet users actively
Purpose of using the Internet South Korea, 2006
P e r c e n t a g e s
6-19 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s +
CommunityHome page/Blog
InternetUsers Age group
0
1012 13
1711 14
3
2020 22
2530
3740
46485052
60
707480
Source: U-Japan Policy, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan, October 2006
generated content and social networking servicesJapan experiences a rapid rise in users adopting user-
Number of registered users of blogs and social networking services, Japan
M i l l i o n p e r s o n s
Blogs Social Networking Services
March 2005 March 2006
545%
159%
0
1.112
4
6
8.68
7.168
10
3.35
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Figure 1
Figure 2
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The world was so recent that many things lacked names, and in order to indicate them it was necessary to point.
Gabriel Garcia Marquez,One Hundred Years of Solitude
Digital Ecosystem
Digital means any data that exist in binary form.
An ecosystem is an interdependent and dynamic
network of living organisms and their physical
environment. The Digital Ecosystem is the space
formed by the convergence of the media, telecoms
and IT industries. It consists of users, companies,
governments and civil society, as well as the
infrastructure that enables digital interactions.
Digital user
Any consumer, producer and/or distributor of
digital content or services, personal or business,
for purposes such as communication, information,
entertainment, education or civic engagement.
Digital community (or online community)
A group of people who are connected online, for purposes that include communicating, sharing knowledge
or exchanging content. Many communities are highly cooperative and establish their own unique culture.
Contributors put in significant time for typically no monetary gain, at least at present.
Digital content
Any digital information, such as music, video, text, graphics or games that can be consumed.
Digital services
Any service that assists users in making the most of the digital infrastructure, such as aggregating or customizing
digital content, enabling communication and supporting hardware or software products.
MEDIA &ENTERTAINMENT
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
USERS
COMMUNICATIONS
GOVERNMENTS
DIGITAL LEXICON
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Some artists and bloggers have successfully parlayed
their digital creativity into an income producing activity
or a professional career. Also we find increasing
coverage in the traditional media on events and
celebrities born and bred online, such as the FIFAInteractive World Cup 2006 and Kamini, a French
rapper who became famous on YouTube, was
signed up by a major label and received in about
every television show.
Collaboration enabled by communities, for
example wikis, remains largely a leisure activity. But
there is a nascent trend towards commercial online
user collaboration, as in open source software
community projects. Platforms for user-generated
content are increasingly supported by venture
capital. In the last year, many leading platforms of
user-generated content have been acquired by
media giants and internet portals: Google acquired
YouTube and Jotspot; Viacom acquired iFilm, Atom
Films, iVillage and Quizilla.com; Yahoo acquired
Jumpcut, and Newscorp acquired MySpace.
There are various models for capturing economic
value generated by user creativity. Users of Second
Life can make money as they keep the intellectual
property rights over content they create. Contributors
to YouTube and MTV Flux, on the other hand, give
up the right to commercialize their content. A middle
way, revenue sharing, is exemplified by Revver, whichdistributes user-generated videos along with advertising
and pays the creator half of the advertising revenue.
It is still early days for user contribution and
collaboration through communities. As communities
mature, who will take the leading role in defining
their operating processes and systems: industry
players or, through an organic process, users
themselves? Will industry capture more of the
economic value arising from user creativity or will
grassroots communities increasingly incubate
commercial innovation as users pool their skills
and resources?
Market structure
Players in the Digital Ecosystem are moving beyond
their traditional boundaries. Aggregation and distribution
of content are especially hotly contested, as shown
in figure 3.
Players move into adjacent activities and new players emerge
ContentGeneration
Delivery platformsAggregation
Connectivity /Transport
Consumer devicesInterface
Source: Based on McKinsey analysis
Content creatorsmove into delivery
Network operatorsenter into content creation and delivery
Cable & satellite providersenter the telephony services
Attackersdeliver content via new networks
Portalsdevelop content, expand into networks/WiFi/telephony
expand into platformsand services
Users GeneratedContent Platform Providers
Devicemanufacturers
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Figure 3
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For example, content creators are implementing
delivery platforms, and device manufacturers aggre-
gating digital content. Convergence services blur the
lines between traditionally separate functions such
as in the case of Internet Protocol Television (IPTV)bringing together network and broadcasting activities.
Convergence is also driven by new and
independent players with innovative ideas about
bringing together existing technologies to create
something new. This raises the question of whether
established companies will be able to adapt
proactively and quickly to changing market
conditions. Or, could they fail and die as innovative
businesses take over the market?
Some providers operate on open standards
and make their products and services available
through open systems. Others use proprietary
systems and closed platforms. Increased business
cooperation could lead to more interoperability and
common standards, increasing the interconnectedness
of networks, IT platforms and devices. But it is also
plausible that vertical integration will lead to partnerships
and consortia delivering exclusive content over closed
systems, with proprietary networks, IT platforms and
devices featuring interoperability only within silos.
Market regulation
Regulation and licensing are creating headaches for
governments and uncertainty for industry. In most
developed countries, broadcasting and telecoms
have traditionally been regulated separately, meaning
that new services such as IPTV 1 and VoIP 2 are
competing in the same space without being overseen
by the same regulators. Nine OECD 3 countries have
already established single regulatory frameworks and
institutions, and others are planning to follow suit.
Licensing requirements for new services and
networks can also help to determine market structure.
For example, a VoIP provider requires ministry
approval in South Korea but does not currently in
the US; in India under the recent government
clampdown, companies will not be allowed to use
unlicensed foreign VoIP providers such as Skype,
Yahoo and Net2Phone. South Korea recently gave
trial licenses for new IPTV network services to twoconsortia formed by key players from the telecom
and broadcasting industries.
There is also uncertainty about the strength of
governments commitment to fostering competitive-
ness in the Digital Ecosystem with the aim of growing
the knowledge economy. Many governments
promote interoperability and open systems by
enforcing anti-trust regulations and adopting open
source software and open standards in their own
digital activities.
European public authorities are particularly active
in promoting interoperability. French legislation, for
example, mandates that when digital content is
protected by proprietary digital rights management
technologies, providers must give other software
and hardware developers access to the necessary
technical documentation to make their systems
interoperable with it. Apples iTunes is under scrutiny
both in France and elsewhere in the EU.
Will policy-makers and regulators be able to
keep pace with emerging technological developmentsand business models, and foster an open and
competitive digital environment?
Intellectual Property Rights (IPR)
Digital content is easier than analogue content
to share and adapt. Owners of IPR face
difficulties in tracking and controlling how their
digital content is used, while creative users do
not always find it easy to identify and trace rights
holders. CreativeCommons.org seeks to tackle
these dilemmas by enabling creators to define
some rights reserved licenses that are more
flexible than the two traditional extremes of all
rights reserved and public domain.
1 Internet Protocol Television2 Voice over Internet Protocol3 Organisation for EconomicCooperation and Development
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Digital Rights Management (DRM) technologies
are widely used to protect IPR. Many industry
players are developing competing corporate DRM
platforms. Others promote global open standards
such as the Digital Media Project, often with thesupport of public institutions.
Countries throughout the world have adhered
to the WIPO 4 Internet Treaties, the international
framework for copyright in the digital environment.
However, IPR are determined by national laws in
individual countries that differ both in details and
in levels of enforcement. This creates uncertainty.
For example, computer software code is protected
by copyright, but opinion differs widely among
national jurisdictions on whether business models
enabled by softwares functionality should be
patentable.
The Digital Ecosystems stakeholders need to
balance the interests of rights owners and the public.
Will intellectual property laws be able to ensure that
creators can commercialize their work and protect
it from plagiarism, while also providing a framework
that encourages creativity?
Security and privacy
For the Digital Ecosystem to create an enablingframework for economic and social development,
the online environment must command trust in terms
of privacy, security and protection from harmful digital
content. Identity theft and fraud are increasing,
despite advances in technologies to protect users
and transactions; in addition, public awareness of
online security and privacy issues is low.
Tracking techniques such as Radio Frequency
Identification and location detection systems will
add further to the information users already reveal
about themselves through their consumption of
digital content and services. Data about the behaviour
of a users online identity are used to provide them
with customized services, but there are privacy
dangers when the organizations who collect or
have access to this data do not behave ethically.Parental control and other filtering systems are
increasingly used to protect children from harmful
digital content, amid concern about information they
can access and are providing about themselves.
A majority of teens admit to doing things online that
their parents do not know about.
Cross-border enforcement of laws on privacy,
security and protection from harmful digital content
are costly and difficult. Standards differ among
jurisdictions, and to enforce national regulations
requires international cooperation and human
investigative resources. Furthermore, what is
considered to be harmful is strongly influenced by
local values and political regimes.
Are the industry and public institutions able to
cooperate and build the required trust of users in
the Digital Ecosystem? Or, will it descend into an
anarchic and uncontrolled state?
4 World Intellectual PropertyOrganization
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The Digital Ecosystem is forming as the Information Technology, Telecommunications, and Media and
Entertainment industries converge, users evolve from mere consumers to active participants, and
governments face policy and regulatory challenges. Its stakeholders are questioning the shape and
size it will take. They are aware of their inter-dependencies necessary to enable the Digital Ecosystem
to evolve into a healthy environment that both creates economic value and adds well being to society.
The key questions for the scenarios
When reflecting on the future of the Digital Ecosystem, two critical questions stand out:
Executive Summary
INDUSTRY CONTROLLED AND LED ORGANIC AND COMMUNITY-LED
OR
OR
AN OPEN SYSTEM
A CLOSED SYSTEM
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC VALUE CREATION IS
D I G I T A L B U S I N E S
S E N V I R
O N M E N T E V
O L V E S T O W A R D
S
2. Will the digital business environment evolve toward a more openor closed system?
1. Will social and economic value creation be industry controlled and led,or organic and community-led?
Processes and systems by which users
contribute and communities operate are
defined by industry players.
Aggregation of products and services is
performed by industry players.
Users contribute to value creation but
most valuable digital assets are
commercialized by industry players.
Innovation is mostly industry-led.
User and community contribution occurs
through independent, open platforms.
Members of the communities set the rules
for the underlying processes and systems.
Aggregation of products and services
is performed by users and/or their
communities.
Users and communities contribute signifi-
cantly to value creation and successfully
commercialize their products and services.
Communities are incubators for innovation
through an organic process in which skills,
competences and resources are pooled.
Closed systems with proprietary networks, platforms and devices; interoperabilitywithin silos.
Vertical integration between content, services and conduits.
Regulatory environment that limits openness.
Interconnectedness of networks, IT platforms and devices enabled by more interoperability
and common standards.
A constellation of players.
Regulatory environment that supports openness.
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Other issues are also key to how the Digital Ecosystem will evolve in the coming years:
The extent to which established companies will be able to adapt proactively and quickly tochanging market conditions;
The degree to which stakeholders will cooperate businesses amongst themselves, with
users and with government to build an ecosystem where all stakeholders can thrive; Whether the industry and public institutions will be able to cooperate to build trust in the
Digital Ecosystem and ensure the robustness of the internet infrastructure;
The level to which intellectual property rights and patents can be exercised and protectedwithout losing the richness of incremental distributed innovation;
The intent of governments to foster market competitiveness and harmonize legalframeworks and cross-border enforcement.
Guided by these issues and key questions, three scenarios emerge for the Digital Ecosystem.
The different paths for the Digital Ecosystem through to 2015 are shown in figure 4.
Dig ital Ecosystem: Scenar ios to 2015Figure 2 .1
Middle Kingdom s Youniver s e
S afe Haven s
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC VALUE CREATION ORGANIC & COMMUNITY-LED
CONTROLLED & INDUSTRY-LED
O P E N
C L
O S E D
E N V I R O N M E N T
B U S I N E S S
Dig ital Ecosystem: Scenar ios to 2015
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Figure 4
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Safe Havens describes a digital world in which online
security concerns create a clamour from consumers,
businesses and governments for virtual safe havens. Industry
responds by vertically integrating to create secure walled
environments that provide all digital services. Because they
operate on closed standards, growing numbers of users start
to feel constrained by the walls of their safe havens.
The scenario is written as a special, feature-length editorial by
an outspoken business correspondent of an online magazine
belonging to one of the vertically-integrated digital service
providers. The author reflects upon the forces that shaped the
Digital Ecosystem between 2007 and 2015.
Middle Kingdoms describes a digital world in whichconsumers, governments and forward-looking businesses
push for interoperability, enabling a bewilderingly wide array
of niche offerings to become viable propositions and a
Digital Ecosystem dominated by intermediaries that
effectively connect users to like-minded individuals and to
the highly specialized suppliers that can best meet their
needs. In the middle of the space between consumers and
suppliers lie the kingdoms where the power lies.
The scenario is written as an official company blog of a
leading intermediary in which the company founder reflects
in a series of blog posts on how the Digital Ecosystems
evolution enabled his business to grow from being a start-up
in 2007 to a powerful global player in 2015.
Youniverse describes a digital world in which the rise of
organic grassroots communities as powerhouses of economicvalue creation turns traditional business thinking on its head.
This leads to the rise of new organizational structures and
to digital experiences that are highly personalized. Some
companies find ways to capitalize on this distributed
innovation they survive the period of uncertainty and change
to see a new day dawn in the digital world; on others the sun
sets for good.
This scenario is written as extracts from a community website
between 2007 and 2015. The community is set up for
members of the tech-savvy young generation to discuss the
Digital Ecosystems evolution after the websites creator finds
this scenarios document lying on her boyfriends kitchen table.
Safe Havens
Middle Kingdoms
Youniverse
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2007-2008: In a context of geopolitical stability andgovernment support for open markets, fundamental changeis underway in the Digital Ecosystem. There is an unstoppablepush from a small but highly active and influential segmentof digital users and communities to take control of theirdigital experience. Consumers become dissatisfied withtraditional industry offerings. Grassroots communities growin power and pose fast-developing threats to businesses thatdo not ride the wave of user and community participation.
2009-2012: Established businesses face a stark choice: findways to attract a community or face obsolescence. Novelorganizational structures and price differentiation modelsemerge. Distributed innovation models, leveragingcommunity strength, become mainstream in software, mediaand entertainment. Traditional aggregators are supersededby Personal Digital Agents that collate the opinions andexperiences of friends and specialist communities.
2013-2015: A new paradigm emerges based oninteroperability, open systems and common standards.
The line between users and producers is further blurredas open-source supporting software and collaborativecommunity structures become more sophisticated andback-office support services increase efficiency and reducecosts. The internet becomes extremely decentralized.Community connectedness creates focal points for commoninterests, and spurs distributed innovation across the world.
2007-2008: An unstable geopolitical environment and aseries of highly publicized breaches of data security leads toa sense of concern engulfing the digitized world. The publicdemands virtual gated environments. Governments react byde-emphasising antitrust concerns and developing closeworking relationships with dominant players. Consolidation,mergers, acquisitions and exclusive deals gather pace.
20092012: Amid apparent stability, digital service
conglomerates offer a broadly similar range of bundled,customized services based on proprietary platforms thatlock users in. Governments gain much-needed controlthrough cooperating with a few powerful providers innational-level regulatory forums and licensing new convergedservices. Less tech-savvy users appreciate advances inconvenience, privacy and stability. However, disruptiveinnovation outside the walls quietly gathers momentum.
2013-2015: Sophisticated young tech-savvy users,frustrated by limits on their creative freedom, step up theirdisruptive activities. Conglomerates retaliate through thecourts, but Independent Online Communities (IOCs)become more numerous and influential as mainstreamconsumers increasingly believe that industry control is toopowerful. Governments remain supportive of digitalconglomerates, but are no longer so public about it.
2007-2008: Consumers demand open and interoperableproducts and services; governments actively support opensystems and competition. This joint pressure moves theDigital Ecosystem inexorably towards more openness. Thisis a time of great dynamism, competition andexperimentation as businesses prioritize harnessing user-generated content and community involvement to improvethe development of services.
2009-2012: Amid a stable geopolitical environment,industry-government co-regulation establishes commonstandards on privacy and security. Intermediaries becomethe de facto leaders of the digital world as a virtuous circleemerges that mutually strengthens the need forintermediaries and the viability of niche products and
services.
2013-2015: Stability and choice become establishedfeatures of the digital world. The value network is organizedaround a few large and powerful intermediaries whosesuccess is determined by their expertise, quality of serviceand brand identity and a fragmented market of specializedproviders. It becomes easier to exercise intellectual propertyrights and more consumers start to earn revenues fromindustry platforms.
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Middle Kingdom s Youniver s e
S afe Haven s
Comparing the three scenarios This table compares some of the most import aspects of the scenarios.
Safe Havens
Unstable global geopoliticalenvironment spurs protectionism.
Societies unite around theirlocaldistinctiveness .
Industry accepts user andcommunity involvement as part of corporate strategy, but tightly controls it.
Industry succeeds in capturing most of its economic value.
Grassroots communities play afringe but growing role .
Locally and regionally basedlarge andvertically integrated consortiumsdominate , offering end-to-endcustomized bundles on proprietary,
closed and incompatible platforms. New entrants facehuge entry barriers . Distinct Digital Ecosystems
emerge, both regionally and within andoutside industry control.
Anti-trust concerns and non-discriminationby service and content providers arede-emphasized.
Networks and convergence services aresubject tolicensing .
Industry players implement corporateproprietary IPR technologies.Infringement is energetically pursuedthrough legal channels.
Close cooperation betweengovernments and industry playersleads to more control and security.
Limited privacy as consortia track alla users digital activities.
Innovation takes place inside theconsortia and focuses on distributioninfrastructure and packaging services.
Limited grassroots disruptive innovation.
Middle Kingdoms
Global geopoliticalstability fostersinternational cooperation, understandingand openness.
A worldwide culture and sense of global community grows.
Industry embraces user creationand competes for it, albeit under rules.
Community activities remain largelysocial. There are limited but growingopportunities for economic value creation.
Value network is organized arounda few large and powerfulintermediaries and a huge varietyof specialized niche businesses .
Low switching costs and low barriersto entry.
Open standards and interoperablesystems lead to aglobally unifiedDigital Ecosystem.
Governments actively support open andinteroperable systems, and interveneto guaranteemarket competition .
Exercise of IPR is facilitated: interoperability of digital rights
management technologies advances in identity and content
management systems global collective management
organizations effective international cooperation.
Industry players self-regulate to maintainbrand equity.
Government-industry co-regulationimproves cross-border enforcement.
Third-party identity banks give usersincreased control of their digital identity.
Innovation is industry-led andfocuses on harnessing communitypower, personalization, and thedevelopment of niche services.
Youniverse
Global geopoliticalstability fostersinternational cooperation, understandingand openness.
There isglobal connectednessand collaboration around commoninterests.
Users take the drivers seat : theydetermine the rules of their participationand collaboration, and personalizetheir experience.
Organic communities areeconomically significant .
Value network is fragmented ,volatile, highly innovative, entrepreneurialand dynamic, harnessing the powerof communities.
Specialized offerings targetingniche markets dominate.
The Digital Ecosystem is diverseand bottom-up , based on openstandards and modularity.
Responding to the lobbyingpower of users , governmentsfoster the self-governance of digitalcommunities, take a minimuminterventionist approach tolicensing,and support incremental innovation.
IPR are diversified. Open sourceand Creative Commons licensingbecome mainstream.
Businesses adopt interoperable digitalrights management technologies andrefrain from heavy IPR enforcement.
Successful public-private initiativesreduce fraud and increase digital security.
Self-governing communitiesbecome commonly accepted.
Users own and manage their digitalidentity.
Innovation is community-driven ,distributed, and highly incremental.
Businesses experiment withorganizational structures to exploit user and grassroots innovation.
Global environment
User empowerment
Market structure
Market regulation
Intellectual PropertyRights (IPR)
Security and privacy
Innovation
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COMMITTED TOIMPROVING THE STATE
OF THE WORLD
The World Economic Forum is an independentinternational organization committed to improvingthe state of the world by engaging leaders inpartnerships to shape global, regional andindustry agendas.
Incorporated as a foundation in 1971, and basedin Geneva, Switzerland, the World EconomicForum is impartial and not-for-profit; it is tied tono political, partisan or national interests.(www.weforum.org)