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WelcomeThe webinar will begin at 2:00 PM Eastern.

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2020 Market OutlookMike CintoloVice President of Investments and Chief AnalystCabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader

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• Middle Innings of Two Key Market Trends

• Secular/10,000-foot view: ~7 Years Into Mega-Uptrend

• Cyclical/Long-Term: ~1 Year into Cyclical Bull Market

• Here and Now: Bullish but Watchful

Spoiler: Expecting Good Things in 2020

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• Past 100+ Years, Market Has Moved in 10-20 Year Cycles

• Secular Bulls: Rising Valuations + Investor Perception

• Secular Bears: Contracting Valuations + Big Picture Problems

Secular View

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March 2013 was the Kickoff à 7 Years In

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Hot … but Not Too Hot

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Man on the Street Isn’t Speculating (Apr)

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2020

% of Americans that Own Stocks (Gallup)

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Where Did All the Money (Flows) Go?

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Cumulative $$ Flows ($B)

Jan.-Jun 2018

Start of 2019

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Long-Term View: One Year into Bull Move

Dec 2018 was Bear Market Low

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Longer the Base, Farther the Race

19 months

23 months

20 months

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Oodles of Long-Term Breakouts

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Long-Term Studies Point Higher

• Stock/Bond Prices: Target ~3,500 S&P by June

• S&P second year of 2-to-1: Target ~3,560 by December

• S&P follow-up to Big Year: Target ~3,700 by December

• S&P Monthly MACD: Target ~3,470 S&P by July

• S&P “Similar” Study: Target ~ 3,550 by July

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No Divergences

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Sentiment: Perking Up but Nothing Extreme

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Rising Risk of a Retreat – Indexes Extended

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S&P 500 vs. Cabot Trend Line (35-week MA)

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Rising Risk of a Retreat – S-T Sentiment

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Rising Risk of a Retreat – S-T Sentiment

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• Big Picture Backdrop Remains Supportive

• Middle Innings of the Current Bull Run

• Near-Term Risk of Shakeout/Rest

• Tons of Stocks Early-ish in New Uptrends—including my 3 Picks for the Year!

Summary

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Pick #1: Dexcom (DXCM)Story Diabetics shifting to CGMs/pumps ~20% to 40% of Type I’s G7 should greatly expand market

Numbers Sales up 2.5-fold past 3 years 30%-plus Sales/EPS Growth

Chart14-month breakaway; holding 10-week. FYI, largest position at T Rowe New Horizons

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Pick #2: Tesla (TSLA)Story Bringing electric vehicles to the masses—with style

NumbersHuge Q3 surprise, 2020 estimates keep rising ($6.50 per share)

Chart• Multi-year breakout• Accelerating price and volume• Still early-stage

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Pick #3: Alibaba (BABA)Story• Still THE blue-chip China play• Cloud computing upside (next AWS?)• Basic conditions have turned up

Numbers$60B revenue but growing at 30%-plus clips Currency, Macro should help

ChartResuming 2017 rally? Up 9 weeks, 12 of 13, all-time highs

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Upcoming Events

The 5 Best Stocks to Buy in March [FREE WEBINAR] Presented by Mike Cintolo, Chief Analyst, Cabot Growth Investor & Cabot Top Ten TraderWednesday, February 26, 2020 at 2:00 pm ETCabotWealth.com/webinar

8th Annual Cabot Wealth SummitAugust 19-21, 2020 | Salem, MassachusettsCabotWealth.com/summit

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Mike Cintolo, Chief AnalystCabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten TraderMike@CabotWealth.com

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