welcome skills in the west midlands economy a black country perspective bctg equality and diversity...
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Welcome
Skills in the West Midlands EconomyA Black Country Perspective
BCTG Equality and Diversity Conference
Mike Bell, LSC Area Director, Black Country and Staffordshire
Please raise your hands if you wish to commit economic and social suicide
Does it make economic sense to….?
• Ethnicity• Gender• Disability• Age • Faith• Sexual Orientation • Transgender
The Seven Areas of Equality
West Midlands - Estimated Resident Population (16-64) by Ethnic Group (000s)
Source: Office for National Statistics (Resident Population Estimates, mid-2006, experimental statistics)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Birmingham &Solihull
Black Country Coventry &Warwickshire
Herefordshire &Worcestershire
Shropshire Staffordshire
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group
Black or Black British
Asian or Asian British
Mixed
White
Source: Population Estimates 2007
Total Population by Gender
49% 49%
51% 51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
West Midlands Black Country LSC
Female
Male
• 6.8 million disabled people of working age in Britain, yet only 50% of disabled people in employment compared to 81% of non-disabled people
• 18% of working age population in England
• 18.5% of working age population in West Midlands
• 602,500 people in West Midlands
• UK doing well, but not well enough by 2020
• Step change needed in skills levels
• Public money must focus; private sector must invest
• Provision should be demand-led
• Maximise all sources of skills
Lord Leitch’s Review of Skills and Government Response
Short-term – slowing/reduction in employment, but demand for skills
Medium-term - growth in employment, and demand for skills
Demand Issues
Projections of Regional Employment Change 2007-2017: by Sector
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Miscellaneous services
Health and social work
Education
Public admin and defence
Other business services
Banking & insurance
Transport & telecommunications
Hotels and catering
Distribution (Wholesale and Retail)
Construction
Electricity, gas & water
Rest of manufacturing
Engineering
Food, drink & tobacco
Mining & quarrying
Agriculture etc
Employment Change (000s)
Net New jobs
Source: Working Futures III
Projections of Regional Employment Change 2007-2017: by Sector
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Miscellaneous services
Health and social work
Education
Public admin and defence
Other business services
Banking & insurance
Transport & telecommunications
Hotels and catering
Distribution (Wholesale and Retail)
Construction
Electricity, gas & water
Rest of manufacturing
Engineering
Food, drink & tobacco
Mining & quarrying
Agriculture etc
Employment Change (000s)
Net New jobs
Replacement Demands
Source: Working Futures III
Regional Workforce by Sector and Age
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
1 Agriculture etc
2 Engineering
3 other Manufacturing
4 Electricty, gas and w ater
5 Construction
6 Wholesale and Retail
7 Hotels and restaurants
8 Transport
9 Business and professional services
10 ICT and Telecommunications
11 Public administration
12 Education
13 Health and social w ork
14 Miscellaneous services
16-24
24-45
45+
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
elementary
process, plant andmachine operatives
sales and customerservice Occs
personal service
skilled trades
administrative andsecretarial
associate prof & tech
professional
managers and seniorofficials
Males
Females
West Midlands Employment by Occupation and Gender 2008
Source: Annual Population Survey 2008
Projections of employment by sector 2004-2014: Black Country
0 10 20 30 40
Agriculture etc
Mining & quarrying
Electricity, gas & water
Food, drink & tobacco
Engineering
Banking & insurance
Construction
Public admin and defence
Hotels and catering
Transport & telecommunications
Miscellaneous services
Rest of manufacturing
Education
Health and social work
Business services
Wholesale & Retail
Total requirements
Black Country Net Employment Change 2007-2017
Source: Working Futures III
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
elementary
process, plant andmachine operatives
sales and customerservice Occs
personal service
skilled trades
administrative andsecretarial
associate prof & tech
professional
managers and seniorofficials
Net Change
Proportion of Sector Workforce that is Non-White in 2007
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Agriculture etc
Engineering
other Manufacturing
Electricty, gas and w ater
Construction
Wholesale and Retail
Hotels and restaurants
Transport
Business and professional services
ICT and Telecommunications
Public administration
Education
Health and social w ork
Miscellaneous services
White
Non-w hite
Regional Employment Change 2007-2017: Net New Jobs
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Elementary Occupations
Machine and TransportOperatives
Sales and CustomerService Occupations
Personal ServiceOccupations
Skilled TradesOccupations
Administrative andSecretarial
Associate Professionaland Technical
Professional occupations
Managers and SeniorOfficials
Employment Change (000s)
Net New jobs
Source: Working Futures III
Regional Employment Change 2007-2017: Overall Demand
Source: Working Futures III
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Elementary Occupations
Machine and TransportOperatives
Sales and CustomerService Occupations
Personal ServiceOccupations
Skilled TradesOccupations
Administrative andSecretarial
Associate Professionaland Technical
Professional occupations
Managers and SeniorOfficials
Employment Change (000s)
Net New jobs
Replacement Demands
Projections of employment by occupation 2004-2014: Black Country
0 10 20 30 40
9. Elementary Occupations
8. Machine and Transport Operatives
5. Skilled Trades Occupations
7. Sales and Customer Service Occupations
6. Personal Service Occupations
4. Administrative and Secretarial
2. Professional occupations
3. Associate Professional and Technical
1. Managers and Senior Officials
Total requirements
Employment Projections 2004-2014
940,000 replacement jobs across the region
90,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 5 10 15 20 25
Volume Change (000s)
% Growth
Cov and Warks
Birm and Sol
StaffsShrop
Here and Worcs
Black Country
Source: LSC/ SSDA Working Futures
Employment Projections 2007-2017
Source: Working Futures III
• 984,000 replacement jobs across the region
• 125,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Volume Change (000s)
% Change
Covntry and Warw ickshire
Source: LSC/ SSDA Working Futures
Staffordshire
Birmingham and Solihull
Black Country
Herefordshire and Worcestershire
Shropshire
The quality and availability of
skilled
labour remains challenging,
despite
immediate economic
circumstances
Supply Issues
Minority Ethnic Composition of the West Midlands 2001-2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
Indian
Pakista
ni
Other White
Black C
aribbean
Irish
White & Blac
k Carib
bean
Bangladeshi
Black A
frican
Chinese
Other Asia
nOther
White & Asia
n
Other Mixe
d
Other Black
White & Blac
k Afric
an
Popula
tion (
thousa
nds)
2001
2005
Source: ONS Estimated resident population by ethnic group and sex, mid-2005, (experimental statistics)
Source: IMD 2007
Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2007: Concentrations of Deprivation
Deprivation within
Black Country
Share of national 10% most deprived
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
London
South West
East
South East
North East
East Midlands
West Midlands
North West
Yorkshire & Humber
Reg
ion
Proportion of region's SOAs in national 10% most deprived
The Region has the third highest number of SOAs in the most deprived 10% in England
28% of the Black Country’s SOAs in national 10% most deprived
Source: IMD 2004 Source: IMD 2004
Proportion of sub-regional SOAs in national most deprived 10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Hereford andWorcestershire
Coventry andWarwickshire
Shropshire
Staffordshire
Birmingham andSolihull
Black Country
Are
a
Proportion of area's SOAs in national 10% most deprived
Economic Status of Working Age Populations
Source: APS 2007
In employme
ntILO
unemployed InactiveTotal working
age populationBirmingham 66% 6% 28% 596,080Solihull 76% 3% 21% 118,625Dudley 75% 3% 22% 183,756Sandwell 67% 5% 28% 167,270Walsall 71% 6% 23% 146,648Wolverhampton 67% 6% 28% 140,371Coventry 74% 4% 22% 189,978Warwickshire 79% 3% 17% 316,139Herefordshire 78% 2% 20% 101,073Worcestershire 78% 3% 19% 333,348Shropshire 77% 2% 21% 165,898Telford and Wrekin 73% 4% 23% 99,060Staffordshire 77% 3% 20% 498,600Stoke-on-Trent UA 70% 4% 26% 145,934West Midlands 73% 4% 23% 3,202,780
Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or more A*-C Grades 2008 Provisional
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Sandwell
Walsall
Coventry
Telford and Wrekin
Dudley
Stoke-on-Trent
Worcestershire
Wolverhampton
Warwickshire
Staffordshire
Birmingham
Shropshire
Herefordshire
Solihull
Proportion of pupilsSource: DCFS 2008
England Average
Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or more A*-C Grades, including Maths and English, 2008 Provisional
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Sandwell
Stoke-on-Trent
Wolverhampton
Walsall
Coventry
Telford and Wrekin
Birmingham
Dudley
Worcestershire
Staffordshire
Warwickshire
Herefordshire
Solihull
Shropshire
Proportion of pupilsSource: DCFS 2008
England Average
GCSE Attainment of Pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 in the West Midlands by Ethnicity 2006/07
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Black
Mixed
Asian
White
Chinese
Proportion of pupils in each ethnic group achieving 5 or more GCSE's at grade A*-C incl. Maths & Englsih
Source: DCSF
All pupils
Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or moreA*-C Grades, including Maths and English, 2007 by Ethnicity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
White Mixed Asian Black Chinese All Pupils
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f p
up
ils England
West Midlands
Dudley
Sandwell
Walsall
Wolverhampton
Source: DCSF 2007 – 2008 data not yet available
Engineering2% of apprentices are female4% are from ethnic minority communities6% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem
Plumbing2% of apprentices are female2% are from ethnic minority communities7% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem
Children’s Care, Learning and Development3% of apprentices are male10% are from ethnic minority communities18% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem
Apprenticeships
Post-16 General and Applied A/AS or Equivalent Achievement 2008 Provisional
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Wolverhampton
Sandwell
Walsall
Solihull
Stoke-on-Trent
Coventry
Staffordshire
Birmingham
Warwickshire
Worcestershire
Telford and Wrekin
Dudley
Shropshire
Herefordshire
Average QCA point score by students achieving all Level 3 qualifications. Per candidate Source: DCFS 2008
England Average
But surely numbers of young people are declining?
Isn’t 70% of the 2014 workforcealready in employment now?
Yes – but…
Working Age Qualification Levels
Level 4+
Level 3+
Level 2+
No Quals
Birmingham & Solihull 27% 45% 64% 18%
Black Country 19% 35% 57% 24%
Dudley 22% 41% 65% 18%
Sandwell 15% 29% 52% 26%
Walsall 18% 35% 55% 25%
Wolverhampton 20% 34% 55% 30%
Coventry & Warwickshire 30% 51% 71% 12%
Herefordshire & Worcestershire 30% 50% 71% 12%
Shropshire 31% 49% 71% 12%
Staffordshire 25% 43% 63% 17%
West Midlands 26% 45% 65% 17%
England 30% 49% 69% 13%
Source: APS 2007
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Source: ONS 2006 Mid-year population estimates
Net Change in the Working Age Population of the West Midlands between 1981 and 2006
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Source: ONS 2006 Mid-year population estimates
Net Change in Working Age Population West Midlands – 2006-2031
Older Workers are Poorly Represented in Growth Sectors such as Retail, Hotels and ICT
Source: LFS Spring 2006
Proportion of sector workforce that is aged 50 to retirement
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
ICT and Telecomms
Hotels and Restaurants
Electricity gas and water
Wholesale and Retail
Transport
Other Manufacturing
Construction
Public Administration
Engineering
Health and social work
Miscellaneous services
Business and Professional
Education
Agriculture etc
Proportion of workforce
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
White Mixed Asian Black Chinese & Other
Thou
sand
s
Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundation 2006, Socio-demographicScenarios for children
Projected Change in West Midlands Population from 2001 to 2020
Employment rate of ethnic groups in West Midlands
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Pakistani/Bangladeshi
Other
Other Asian
Black African
Black Caribbean
Indian
Other White
British
Proportion of working age in employment
Employment Rates among Minority EthnicGroups are low in the Region
Source: LFS 2003-2005
Never mind – we’ll just get
our
skilled workforce from other
parts
of the West Midlands…..
or will they?
Employment Projections 2007-2017
Source: Working Futures III
• 984,000 replacement jobs across the region
• 125,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Volume Change (000s)
% Change
Covntry and Warw ickshire
Source: LSC/ SSDA Working Futures
Staffordshire
Birmingham and Solihull
Black Country
Herefordshire and Worcestershire
Shropshire
Whichever way you look at it, we have a challenge• Unemployment - rising• Qualifications levels – not rising fast enough• Skills levels – too low – not rising fast
enough• Age/demography – against us if we carry on
as before• Short-term – Economic Downturn• Medium-term - competitive demand/
projected growth
Maximise all sources of skills