welcome to the 5th towerxchange meetup americas · networking club for towercos meetups, cxo...
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Welcome to the 5th TowerXchange Meetup Americas
Wi-Fi network: BOCA-MEETINGWi-Fi password: tower123
Diamond sponsor: Silver sponsors: Bronze sponsors:
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TowerXchange’s analysis of the global and CALA telecom infrastructure industry
Kieron Osmotherly, Founder and CEO, TowerXchangeArianna Neri, MD – Americas and Asia, TowerXchange
Twitter: #txmeetupamericas
Community: http://www.linkedin.com/groups/TowerXchange-4536974
Research: www.towerxchange.com
Networking club for towercosMeetups, CXO dinners, must-read-journal, 3 million words of research, who’s whos
Meetup China 2018 27-28 September, Beijing
Meetup Africa 2018 9-10 October, Johannesburg
Meetup Asia 2018 4-5 December, Singapore
Meetup MENA 2019 29-30 January, Dubai
Meetup Europe 2019 2-3 April, London
Meetup Americas 2019 9-10 July, Boca Raton
The new market structure in which towercos own 67.4% of towers
TowerXchange is tracking 279 towercos that now own 2.966mn of the world’s 4.4mn towers
China Tower Corporation*1,900,000
29 other towercos with 5,000-20,000 towers286,590
235+** other towercos with <5,000 towers213,175
American Tower150,975
Indus Towers 122,962
IHS Towers 22,860
Cellnex 27,044
SBA Communications27,879
GTL Infrastructure28,000
edotco 29,512
Deutsche Funkturm34,700
Bharti Infratel39,363
Crown Castle40,039
Reliance Infratel43,000
* China Tower Corporation area reduced to better illustrate the relative global market share of the other towercos – if illustrated to scale, China Tower Corporation’s area would be almost double the scale of the rest of the industry combined**<5,000 towers segment includes an estimated 37,500 towers at several hundred unidentified towercos, plus an estimated 2% organic growth rate applied to towercos that have not disclosed updated counts
Towerco penetration and business models in different regions
Global
52.6%
13.5%1.3%
32.6%
Operator-led towerco Pureplay independent towerco Joint venture infraco MNO-captive sites
China
India
CALA
Oceania
S & SE Asia(Exc India)
Europe
N & E Asia(exc China)
97.3%2.7%
15.4%
15.5%
9.6%
59.6%46.6%
21.8%
31.5%
14.7%66.1%
19.2%100%
11%
36.1%
48.2%
13%
87%
USA & Canada
7%
66%
27%
15.6%
SSAMENA99.5%
0.01%0.04%
4.6%59.2%
36.2%
Operator-led towerco Pureplay independent towerco Joint venture infraco MNO-captive sites
China
India
CALA Oceania
S & SE Asia(Exc India)
Europe
N & E Asia(exc China)
97.3% 2.7%
19%
10%
40%47%
22%
32%
20%66%
14%
100%
11%
40%49%
8%
92%
USA & Canada
7%
66%
27%11%
SSAMENA99.99%
0.01%0.2%
61%
39%
Global comparisons of towerco business models
Source: TowerXchange
CALA extension:replicated, evolved... sold out?
Africa’s powercos:new complexities, new value creation
Asia’s native towercos:same same but different
Europe:deviates from standard structures,
business models
Gold standard
Tower industry 1.0: Vertical real estate
Tower cash flowTowers
Rooftops
Passive infrastructure
Power-as-a-service
Amendments
Escalators
Accelerated rollouts
Build-to-suitTenancy ratio growth
Long-term contracts
Operational excellence
Real estate
Operational excellence
Monetise assets
Service Level Agreements
Master Lease Agreements
Credit worthy tenants Sale and leaseback
Credit worthy tenants
Sale and leaseback
REITs
Valuation
Improvement capex
Site level profitability
Permitting
Zoning
Pass-through
Anchor tenants
DAS
The Future Network: new business models for geographic coverage and urban capacity
An era when networks are dynamically, remotely configurable, rather than optimised by site visits and new equipment overlays
InnovationFixed / mobile convergence
In Building Solutions
MESH networks
Small cells
Airborne connectivity
Virtualisation
Software Defined Networks
Self Optimising NetworksSingle platform
IoT
Industry verticals
OrchestrationEdge data centres
End to end network slicing
C-RAN
Multi-host
Smart poles
Fronthaul
Massive MIMO
Multi-band antennas5G rollout
Self-deployVR and AR
Street furniture
Neutral host
Street furniturePublic safety networks
NFV
Multi-operator
Independent towerco lifecycles
Startup
Refinance
Divestiture
Risk of growth stallwith bad paper
First 100towers
500towers
Build-to-keepIPO
Build-to-flip
Consolidatedby rollup play
Sell tostrategic buyer
Privatepensionable
assets
Known active towercos in CALA
BTS Towers, AMT, Centennial, IIMT, Intelli Site, MTP, MX Towers, Uniti Towers, QMC, Rent-A-Tower, Tower One, Telesites, Torrecom
Balesia, Continental, SBA, Torrecom
AMT, Antyl, ATP, Balesia, Innovattel, BTS Towers, PTI, SBA, Telxius
AMT, Antyl, ATP, Balesia, SBA, Telxius
BTS Towers, Aplicanet, Balesia, Ecuador Tower Company, Innovattel, SBA Communications
Balesia, Continental
Balesia, Continental, PTI, SBA
Balesia, SBA, Torrecom
AMT, Balesia, Catalina, PTI, SBA, TOCSA
BTS Towers, Continental, Innovattel, SBA, Torrecom
AMT, ATP, Centennial, Golden Comunicaciones, PTI, QMC, Telesites, Tower One, Uniti Towers
AMT, AlfaSite, BTC, CSS, Centennial, GTS, PTI, QMC, SBA, Skysites, Telxius
American Tower, SBA Communications, Atis Group, Innovattel/ Torresec, Plata Tower Company, Teletower Argentina, Telxius, Tower One, CSS, GME Alliance
Continental
Innovattel , PTI
Source: TowerXchange
Towercos have acquired the majority of towers from carriers
from carriers, but the majority remain carrier-owned.
Less SLB activity, but plenty of BTS towerco activity
Early stage market for BTS and/or SLB
Negligible towerco activity
Legend
American Tower, Innovattel
What did TowerXchange predict back 2015?
< SLBs to take place in Andean region
< Acquisitions to accelerate 2016/2017
< 10k operator captive towers to be sold
< 15k towers to be built by towercos
< 92k towers to be owned by towercos by 2016 (52% of 178K)
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By how much did the CALA tower market grow 2015-2018?
2015 total CALA towers
156,000175,530
Towercopenetration
44%
Towercopenetration
51.9%
Towercoowned 69,850
Towerco owned 91,130
Q118 total CALA towers
Where has the growth come from 2015-2018?
Towerco growth organic vs inorganic Share of new build
65%
35%
Inorganic
Organic
Towercos
MNOs
29%
71%
Mexico: highlights and growth 2015-18
< Tower inventory from 23,422 to 30,739< Telesites from creation (10.8k) to 15.3k portfolio< AT&T acquisition sparked BTS frenzy…< …which led to an overcrowded and irrational market< ALTÁN Redes’ 700MHz network from idea to reality
Mexico - Estimated tower count 30,739
Source: TowerXchange
Telesites
American Tower
Mexico Tower Partners
IIMT
Torrecom
Intelli Site Solutions
BTS Towers
Uniti Towers
Other independent towercos (QMC, Centennial,
Conex et cetera)
Estimated MNO captive towers
550215
313
15,386
9,209
1,850
1,001205
10 2,000
Central America: highlights and growth 2015-18
< Tower inventory increased from 10k to 13k< El Salvador opened up to SLB< More towercos entered Panama < Still good organic growth opportunities
MNOSBAContinentalTorrecomAMTPTITelesitesOther independents
7,5652,669
605
586494
477
284 289
Caribbean: highlights and growth 2015-18
< Tower inventory nearly unchanged ~10.5/11k
< DR and French Antilles only towerco markets
< Operational challenges / scale limitations still an issue
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Colombia: highlights and growth 2015-18
< From relatively rational to highly irrational market < Now back to “normality” with ~10 solid towercos< Still no 700MHz auction…!
American TowerPhoenix Tower InternationalSBA CommunicationsUniti TowersBTS TowersOther independent towercos (Andean Tower Partners, Innovattel, Continental, Balesia, Centennial et cetera)América MóvilTelefónicaMillicom
Colombia - Estimated tower count 15,566
Source: TowerXchange, Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
6500
2000
1000
4597
364100
15189801
Peru: highlights and growth 2015-18
< Tower inventory from 9k to 10.7k< Towerco penetration still low and marginal SLB activities < Opportunities for organic and inorganic growth
Peru - Estimated tower count 10,761
Source: TowerXchange
Telxius
American Tower
SBA Communications
Phoenix Tower International
BTS Towers
Other independent towercos
(Andean Tower Partners, Innovattel,
Telecommunications Partners et cetera)
Claro
Bitel
Entel
Telefónica
DirecTV
838
285
810
80109
2,5002,500
2,100
550 849
140
Chile: highlights and growth 2015-18
< Tower inventory
from 8k to 9k
< From three to at least
six active towercos
< Still low towerco
penetration
< Country at the
forefront of innovative
site typologies
American Tower
Telxius
SBA
Other independent towercos (incl.
Andean Tower Partners)
Estimated MNO captive tower
América Móvil Telefónica
Entel Chile WOM
Chile - Estimated tower count: 8,958
Source: TowerXchange, Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
~720
234
23611000
3000
10
1306
327
Brazil: highlights and growth 2015-18
< Tower inventory from
48k to 57k
< Oi bankruptcy, recession
and political instability
< …All of the above on
the mend!
< Renewed (timid)
confidence, BTS plans
and consolidation
American Tower
SBA Communications
Grupo TorreSur
Telxius
Phoenix Tower do Brasil
AlfaSite
Big 4 MNOs
Other MNOs
Other independent towercos (CSS, Brazil Tower
Company et cetera)
Brazil - Estimated tower count 57,124
Source: TowerXchange
18872
841465001400
220
1655
16000
10003063
Argentina: highlights and growth 2015-18
< Tower inventory from 13k to 16k
< From untapped to overcrowded market?
< Then and now: is Argentina credit-worthy?
< Changes to permitting, fees, taxation a must for growth
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What happened in 2016-2017 in CALA
< Andean region opened up (but not as much as we predicted)
< ~8.6k towers sold in 2016/2017 of which 6.5k by MNOs
< ~13.9k towers built by towercos
< ~89k towers owned by towercos by end of 2017 (51.6%)
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The future of CALA towers
< Consolidation among towercos to continue
< Will BTS continue to recover
< New markets and sellers (Caribbean, Paraguay / Tigo, Digicel)
< Towercos expanding beyond steel and grass (fibre, IoT, data centres)
< Will more carriers carve out their own infracos?
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Thank you!
Arianna NeriManaging Director, Americas and Asia
TowerXchangeE. [email protected]
M. +39 338 111 2103W. www.towerxchange.com
Kieron Osmotherly,Founder and CEOTowerXchange
E. [email protected]. +44 7771 148001
W. www.towerxchange.com
Pablo CrespoHead of Research, Americas and Asia
TowerXchangeE. [email protected]
M. +44 (0) 7889 624128W. www.towerxchange.com
Meetup China 2018 27-28 September, Beijing
Meetup Africa 2018 9-10 October, Johannesburg
Meetup Asia 2018 4-5 December, Singapore
Meetup MENA 2019 29-30 January, Dubai
Meetup Europe 2019 2-3 April, London
Meetup Americas 2019 9-10 July, Boca Raton
Thank you and see you at the next Meetup!
Diamond sponsor: Silver sponsors: Bronze sponsors:
Organised by: