welcome to the may 2006 economic briefing by the south australian centre for economic studies of
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Welcome to the May 2006 Economic Briefing by The South Australian Centre for Economic Studies of Adelaide and Flinders Universities. The Economist Poll - GDP Growth & Inflation Forecasts. Real GDP (%) Consumer Prices (%) 2006200720062007. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Welcome to the
May 2006
Economic Briefingby
TheSouth Australian Centre for Economic Studies
of Adelaide and Flinders Universities
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Real GDP (%) Consumer Prices (%)
2006 2007 20062007
Britain 2.4 (2.3) 2.5 (2.4) 2.0 1.9
Japan 3.0 2.4 0.4 0.6
United States 3.4 (3.3) 2.8 3.1 (3.0) 2.4 (2.3)
Euro Area 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.0
Australia 3.2 (3.1) 3.4 2.9 (2.8) 2.7
The Economist Poll - GDP Growth & Inflation Forecasts
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Official Interest Rates
RBA data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
May90 May92 May94 May96 May98 May00 May02 May04 May06
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
USA: Fed Funds Target Rate
Japan: Target Call Rate
Euro: Repo Rate
Australia: Official Cash Rate
UK: Repo RateCanada: Target Rate
% %
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment
80
90
100
110
120
130
May01 Nov May02 Nov May03 Nov May04 Nov May05 Nov May06
Index of Consumer Sentiment
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Index of Commodity Prices - Australia
RBA data
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Apr96 Apr97 Apr98 Apr99 Apr00 Apr01 Apr02 Apr03 Apr04 Apr05 Apr06
Rural Commodities
Non-Rural Commodities
All Items
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Terms of Trade Index - Australia
ABS data
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Dec61 Dec65 Dec69 Dec73 Dec77 Dec81 Dec85 Dec89 Dec93 Dec97 Dec01 Dec05
Terms of Trade
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Business Profits - Australia
ABS data
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05
Profits as % Total Factor Income
%
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Private Business Investment & H’hold Spending - Australia
ABS data
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05
Household Spending - Annual Change
Private Business Investment - Annual Change
%
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Growth in GDP - Australia
ABS data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05
GDP
Domestic Final Demand
%
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Wage Price Index - Australia
ABS data
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05
Qtly Change in Wage Price Index
%
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Balance of Payments as % GDP - Australia
ABS Data
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05
Current Account Balance
Goods & Services Balance
%
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Merchandise Imports as % Domestic Sales - Australia
ABS data
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05
Imports as % Domestic Sales
%
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Construction Activity – South Australia
ABS data
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05
$m
Total construction
Building construction
Engineering construction
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Value of Building Approvals – South Australia
ABS data
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
Mar96 Mar97 Mar98 Mar99 Mar00 Mar01 Mar02 Mar03 Mar04 Mar05 Mar06
Residential alterations/additions
Residential New Building
$m
Non-Residential Building
Total Building
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Engineering Construction Work – South Australia
ABS data
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05
Work Done
$m
Work Yet to be Done
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Terms of Trade Index – South Australia and Australia
ABS data
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Dec87 Dec89 Dec91 Dec93 Dec95 Dec97 Dec99 Dec01 Dec03 Dec05
South Australia
Australia
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
2006-07 Income Tax Scale
Option A Option B
0 - 6,000 0% 0 - 6,000
6,001 - 25,000 15% 6,001 - 125,000
25,001 - 75,000 30% 125,001 - 175,000
75,001 - 150,000 40% 175,001 - 250,000
150,001 + 45% 250,000 +
SA Centre For Economic StudiesAdelaide and Flinders Universities
Share of Total Hours Worked by Qualification
10
15
20
25
30
35
94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 99-00 00-01 02-03 03-04
Degree - Australia
Vocational - SA
%
Degree - SA
Vocational - Australia
The
South Australian Centre for Economic Studies
May 2006
Economic Briefing
Overview Presenter:
Associate Professor Owen Covick