Institute for Sustainability, Health and Environment

Inaugural ConferenceAnticipating tomorrow for changing todayUWE, Bristol, 21st April 2009

Sara Parkin

Founder Directorwww.forumforthefuture.org.uk

What will relationship between health and environmental sustainability look like

in 2035 and what to do now?Well before 2035:• We are headed for irretrievable breakdown• Government chief scientists expects a ‘perfect

storm’ of catastrophesWhat to do• Heed Obama’s advisors• Let realism and urgency infect everything we do• Start an emergency programme to build

‘sustainability literacy’

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

15 out of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or being used unsustainably

Millennium Development Goals 2005

“If current trends exist there is a risk many of the poorest countries will not be able to meet many of them”

Symptoms of Unsustainability

Big symptom of unsustainability – climate change manifest globally & locally

Copenhagen: key messages• Climatic Trends

• Observations confirm worst-case IPCC trajectories are being realised.

• Social disruption• Many societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change

• Long-Term Strategy• Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation is required to avoid "dangerous

climate change"

• Equity Dimensions• Climate change will have strongly differential effects on people (intra and inter-

generational) and biodiversity.

• Inaction is Inexcusable• Many of the tools and approaches to deal effectively with the climate change

challenge already exist.

• Meeting the Challenge• Need to overcome significant constraints (e.g. inertia in economic and social

systems) and seize critical opportunities (development of the green economy).

The (im)perfect storm

Source: CSA March 2009

Unsustainable development

Growing demand side

1946 2.2 billion

1972 3.6 billion

2009 6.8 billion

2035 8.5 billion

2050 9.2 (10.7) billion

Shrinking supply side

“Normally, large, aggressive, predatory mammals are rare – humans have broken this rule”

Colin Tudge, 2005

people carbon emissions per sq km p/capita p/year

tonnes

Bangladesh 954 0.2Netherlands 468 8.7England & Wales 389 11China 143 2.2European Union (25) 118 2.8Kenya 53 0.3USA 29 19.8

Numbers matter, but so does space and impact

Multiple sources

Inequality in GHG emissions

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Population (billions)

5

tons CO2e/yper person

N America

Europe

Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle EastNorth AfricaS and C America

Watkinson LWEC

The impacts of population change on GHG emissions

1 billion fewer peoplein Africa

4 billion fewer peoplein Asia and Africa

1 billion fewer US-styleconsumers

Watkinson LWEC

Population policy in the UK?

• 33-40% pregnancies (all ages) unplanned, rising to 90% in teenagers

• Inconsistent relationship and sex education• Difficult to access services and full choice of

contraceptives• Child benefit• Aging population seen as needing more births• No links between population and environment

US National Intelligence Council

“leadership matters, no trend is immutable, and timely and well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

Global Trends 2025: A transformed world

What are you teaching?

BACK TO THE PAST … or … FORWARD TO SUS’Y??

can you imagine a different future?

in the depression

We are here

Sustainability Literacy

Understand why behaviour needs to change

Have the knowledge and skills to behave differently

Be able to recognise and reward right behaviour in others

Forum for the Future, UK Sustainable Development Strategy

Four Habits of Thought

Resilience

Relationships

Reflection

Reverence

Sustainability and health priorities

CarbonWatchers: per capita targets 11 tonnes now, 7 by 2020, 2 by 2050 cut out waste grow natural capital

Two will do population policy bust myths that population growth is good keep old active and healthy

Grow human and social capital improve mental and physical health build capacity to participate – and take action develop community resilience

Make the connections, win the argument

freedom from calamityprosperity

enjoyment of healthWELFARE

HEALTH BEING WELL HAPPY soundness of fortunate body/mind WEALTH content wholesome prosperity felicitous

thrivingflourishing

all of these are cheaper than the opposite

“Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest”

Mark Twain

Thank you for listening!

www.forumforthefuture.org

Forum for the Future

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