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Wendy SowersyMarket AnalysisBoeing Commercial AirplanesOctober 2010

BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.Copyright © 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other thanthat intended by Boeing.

October 2010

GDP G thLib li ti G liti

CMO Process Outline

ASM Forecast –Regional Flowsp-

Dow

n

Traf

fic

orec

ast

GDP Growth& World Trade

-Liberalization--Environment-

-Geopolitics--Fuel Price-

-Travel Spend- -Growth Rates-

To Share Allocationby Airline

ASMs by Airlineby Flow

T Fo -OAG-

-Market Share--Non Scheduled-

-Business Models-

Ser

vice

Fore

cast

Traffic Forecast ASMs=

Service Forecast ASMs?

-Airline Strategies--OAG-

-Non Scheduled-Service Forecast

By Airline-Known Plans-

t stF

-Product Scenario-

-Airplane Characteristics-

Fleet ForecastBy Airline

Bot

tom

-Up

Pro

duct

Fore

cas

-Utilization--Current Fleet-

-Firm Orders--Retirements-

-Airplane Characteristics-Service Forecast ASMs

=Airline ASMs?

COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

-Known Plans-

20-year forecast: strong long-term growth

3 2%World

economy

2009 to 2029

3.2%economy(GDP)

3 3%Airplane fl t 3.3%fleet

Numberof airline 4.2%

5.3%Airlinetraffic(RPK)

passengers4.9%

(RPK)

5.9%Cargotraffic(RTK)

5.4%


(RTK)

20-year traffic growth rates are higher than last year's forecast because they are calculated off a lower base year

Air travel becoming more diverse geographically

Air traffic, RPKs (billions)14,000

10,000

12,000 Other

China

Middle East

6,000

8,000 Asia(excl. China)

4,000

2 000

Europe

45%

58%72%

2009 20290

2,000

1990

NorthAmerica


Emerging business models are growing and gaining market share

Air traffic, RPKs (billions)14,000

Emerging business models10,000

12,000

38%

6,000

8,000

Network& other4,000

2 000

62%25%

14%

2029

2,000

200919900

75%86%

14%


*Emerging business models include LCCs, 6th Freedom Gulf carriers and Chinese carriers

Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion

Ai l d li i 30 900 M k t l $3 6TAirplane deliveries: 30,9002010 - 2029

Market value: $3.6T2010 - 2029

25,000 1,800

ions

20 000 1,600

10,000

15,000

800

1,200

Airp

lane u

nits

Marke

t valu

e, $ b

illi20,000 ,

0

5,000

1,920regional jets

6%

21,160single-aisle

69%

7,100twin-aisle

23%

720large2%

0

400M

$60Bregional jets

2%

$1,680Bsingle-aisle

47%

$1,630Btwin-aisle

45%

$220Blarge6%6% 69% 23% 2% 2% 47% 45% 6%


Market for new airplanes set to becomeconsiderably more geographically balanced

7%2%

11%

3% 2%

New airplane deliveries by region2010–2029

Market value by region2010–2029

Region AirplanesAsia Pacific 10 320

Region $BAsia Pacific 1 320

3% 6%

34%8% 37%11%Asia Pacific 10,320

North America 7,200Europe 7,190Middle East 2,340Latin America 2,180

Asia Pacific 1,320North America 700Europe 800Middle East 390Latin America 210

30,900 $3.6T

23%

23%

19%

22%,

C.I.S. 960Africa 710

World Total 30,900

C.I.S. 90Africa 80

World Total $3,590B


wendy sowers market analysis · wendy sowers market analysis boeing commercial airplanes october...

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